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Schools and Covid 19 (part 5) Mod warnings in OP

Beasty

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Mod Warnings

1. Shouldn't need to say this, but unfortunately too many of you seem to ignore a very basic principle when posting - remain civil to each other, otherwise you will have posting privileges removed

2. Can we not have the roundabout question of putting teachers on PUP every 10 pages or so please. You know the answer to the question so why bother asking it

3. Stick to the topic, which is not moderation or other users. Remain civil. Report, don't react, to posts or posters who you think are an issue. This is unfortunately a polarised topic for some (not all). There is some middle ground though and please do not think the worse of posters simply because you have opposing views

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JDD

I've got to admit, I am with the teachers on the vaccine priority issue.

You can cut statistics anyway that you like. Of course a 30 year old is less likely to suffer seriously with covid then a 65 year old. But can we say that a 30 year old teacher is more likely to catch covid than the general cohort of 30 year olds nationwide? I haven't seen any statistics on this, but I would have to assume that it would hold true.

So put it this way. Say you've got a general 5% chance of catching covid as a 30 year old in the general population. Of that 5% cohort, only 10% will be hospitalised, so 0.5%.

Say you are a 65 year old in the general population. You still only have a 5% chance of catching covid, but you have 30% chance of being hospitalised, so 1.5%.

But say you are three times more likely to catch covid as a teacher. Kids might be less likely to catch or spread covid, but you are in an enclosed environment - and in primary, unmasked - environment for five hours a day. It's not an outlandish theory. So a 15% chance of catching covid, and as a 30 year old you have a 10% chance of being hospitalised. That means, as a 30 year old teacher, you have 1.5% chance of being hospitalised with covid, the same as a 65 year old.

Now I have plucked those statistics out of the air, because they don't seem to publish the chances of catching covid by profession, nor the chances of being hospitalised by age. But you can see a scenario where teachers, by virtue of their profession, would have a much higher chance of suffering seriously from covid than their contemporaries of the same age. It is conceivably true that their chance of suffering seriously from covid is the same as some of the older and higher priority cohorts. If I was a teacher, or a union rep, I would want to see the numbers (which the HSE/HSPC surely have) of hospitalised or long covid teachers to really assess what the higher chance might be.

am_zarathustra

They can cacoon though and kids mental health is in shreds and I know we've lost several kids from education that we will never get back, and the lives they are in now will kill them. Your always making a decision, there's no right answer unless you can see into the future and maybe not even then as there are so many variables. I think you can argue both sides, you just have to hope the government has thought through the unintended consequences along with the obvious ones.

The reality is different groups of politicians and scientists in different countries have made different decisions.........if there is empirical, holistic, data backing one or the other fully then this wouldn't be the case.

I'm not even sure what I would do if it was up to me, honestly I'm glad it isn't.

lulublue22

average_runner wrote: »

Yet if they go with vaccination of teachers first, lockdown will last longer as it leaves older people more exposed to covid with a greater risk than a 35 year old teacher.

There seems to be huge confusion around this my understanding is teachers are not looking to be prioritised over the elderly or those with underlying conditions but to be part of the cohort vaccinated in group 9.

At this stage I don’t care either way I’m fed up to the back teeth of it.

However I can’t help feeling that those baying for blood re the arrogant teachers trying to skip the vac queue ala the annual ASTI strike thread currently on the go on boards will be the exact same posters slating teachers for rolling school closures next year if the age vac roll out doesn’t proceed as quickly as hoped for.

average_runner

is_that_so wrote: »

Survey of teachers and the effect of remote learning on students.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/teachers-believe-remote-learning-has-led-some-students-to-disengage-1.4529509

Yet if they go with vaccination of teachers first, lockdown will last longer as it leaves older people more exposed to covid with a greater risk than a 35 year old teacher.

is_that_so

Survey of teachers and the effect of remote learning on students.

More than 90 per cent of secondary school teachers say some students have disengaged as a result of the move to remote teaching and learning, according to a new survey.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/teachers-believe-remote-learning-has-led-some-students-to-disengage-1.4529509

am_zarathustra

Beasty wrote: »

No one says there is no risk in a school environment. However if a 25yo teacher is 70 times less likely to die from this disease if caught are you suggesting that 25yo teacher is more than 70 times more likely to catch the virus?

No-one says there is no risk of covid. The risks increase with age. Put all under 55s back to work and the risk of them spreading it further (particularly the higher risk over 55s) increases. It really is common sense

I see about 100 students a day in enclosed spaces for an hour at a time. I actually teach subjects that generally don't have massive numbers at senior cycle so many teachers would see more. So one person working from home only exposed to anyone outside their family for short periods of time could easily be at 70times less risk. Over a week I'd be in contact with 180 students in a classroom setting. Numbers work both ways.

Again, I'm not actually against the age based approach but it's a decision. Outside of healthcare settings the highest cases globally have shown up in education settings, closing them has the biggest effect on r values. The reality is the science is too new to be sure what the correct approach is exactly, with quick vaccination it's probably a moot point but to say it's backed by science and that's it is not the whole picture. We couldnt logistically do what other countries with high vaccination rates managed despite being a tiny country and that swayed the decision.

If we are all done by the end of the summer it'll be grand, if not let's hope numbers are really low going back. With our staff numbers isolating or infected over the last few months the only reason kids could be taught every day was because it was remote. I'm fully expecting us to put two full time jobs up this summer and get 0 applicants.......again.

I'm genuinely concerned bout staffing going forward anyway. Maybe the correct decision is to vaccinate by age, here's hoping supply keeps increasing but SETs and SNAs on special schools should have been done. I'm already in awe of the level.of personal risk many of them have taken over the last while and their risk factor and the risk to the children they teach is extremely high. I'd be interested in the numbers on those settings from a illness perspective, of the kids and the adults.

Icyseanfitz

BonsaiKitten wrote: »

Sure let the Government lead the way and come back into the Dáil en masse. We'll know it's safe then.

Ha fat chance, the lying feckers will use us a Guinea pigs first

BonsaiKitten

TheDriver wrote: »

There appears to be no support for teachers, SNAs, Gardai etc getting the vaccine as a priority. We keep hearing that as you get to under 55, there's little risk of consequences of covid.
so why can't everyone under 55 go back to workplaces? If Govt says we are not at risk in packed school buildings, fairly full school buses etc, why can't we open Penney's, open constructions, open gyms, let teams train? They are saying there is minimal risk so talk the talk and lower restrictions.

Sure let the Government lead the way and come back into the Dáil en masse. We'll know it's safe then.

Beasty

TheDriver wrote: »

There appears to be no support for teachers, SNAs, Gardai etc getting the vaccine as a priority. We keep hearing that as you get to under 55, there's little risk of consequences of covid.
so why can't everyone under 55 go back to workplaces? If Govt says we are not at risk in packed school buildings, fairly full school buses etc, why can't we open Penney's, open constructions, open gyms, let teams train? They are saying there is minimal risk so talk the talk and lower restrictions.

No one says there is no risk in a school environment. However if a 25yo teacher is 70 times less likely to die from this disease if caught are you suggesting that 25yo teacher is more than 70 times more likely to catch the virus?

No-one says there is no risk of covid. The risks increase with age. Put all under 55s back to work and the risk of them spreading it further (particularly the higher risk over 55s) increases. It really is common sense

TheDriver

There appears to be no support for teachers, SNAs, Gardai etc getting the vaccine as a priority. We keep hearing that as you get to under 55, there's little risk of consequences of covid.
so why can't everyone under 55 go back to workplaces? If Govt says we are not at risk in packed school buildings, fairly full school buses etc, why can't we open Penney's, open constructions, open gyms, let teams train? They are saying there is minimal risk so talk the talk and lower restrictions.

am_zarathustra

araic88 wrote: »

I think it would be reasonable to seek assurance that teachers would be vaccinated by September.
With the glacial/disastrous rollout of the vaccine so far, I also think it's unlikely that many teachers would be vaccinated by the end of this school year (under either system of prioritization) and wouldn't be holding my 25-34 year old breath for it to happen before the next school year either.

Urban areas will be hit with rolling closures if this is the case. It's not really even about teacher health, we probably need to vaccinate during the summer to make sure schools can stay open. We've a lot moving home, taking breaks, trying to get out of the city, keeping staff in dublin a nightmare and most are in the 23-40 ages bracket.

BettyS

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

Person working at home isn’t exposed to unmasked people in a poorly ventilated space from at least 30 households for 5 hours per day.

And what if the 50 year old has kids coming home from school? Or grandchildren?

araic88

dubal wrote: »

But if the vaccine for teachers is to protect them at work.

Since if they are prioritised it's unlikely they will be protected before the school term end its pointless.

Unless they want to to be rewarded so they can have a nice summer holiday??

I think it would be reasonable to seek assurance that teachers would be vaccinated by September.
With the glacially paced, disastrous rollout of the vaccine so far, I agree that it's unlikely that many teachers would be vaccinated by the end of this school year (under either system of prioritization) and wouldn't be holding my 25-34 year old breath for it to happen before the next school year either, if done by age only.

byhookorbycrook

Over 122,000 &#55356;&#56812;&#55356;&#56807; NHS personnel have #LongCovid, out of 1.1 million people in the UK were affected by the condition. What’s the #2 occupational group? 114,000 teachers. Many are unable to work full time because of Long #COVID19 illness & brain fog. &#55358;&#56821;

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1378995589568991232?s=21

wirelessdude01

dubal wrote: »

But if the vaccine for teachers is to protect them at work.

Since if they are prioritised it's unlikely they will be protected before the school term end its pointless.

Unless they want to to be rewarded so they can have a nice summer holiday??

What have holidays got to do with anything?

byhookorbycrook

BettyS wrote: »

And what is the probability of the 50year old having serious consequences from COVID versus the 26 year old (risk of death is 10-fold increases!) Every life is valuable. This is the way of trying to mitigate the fallout of the pandemic

Person working at home isn’t exposed to unmasked people in a poorly ventilated space from at least 30 households for 5 hours per day.

BettyS

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

But it hasn’t . Otherwise those working in schools , the Gardai retail and early childhood settings should be vaccinated shortly . The “ new “ approach means that a perfectly healthy 50 year old accountant working from home will be vaccinated before a 26 year high risk crèche worker .
It’s being sold through death figures, exclusively, taking no account of hospitalisation and long Covid.

And what is the probability of the 50year old having serious consequences from COVID versus the 26 year old (risk of death is 10-fold increases!) Every life is valuable. This is the way of trying to mitigate the fallout of the pandemic

byhookorbycrook

dubal wrote: »

But if the vaccine for teachers is to protect them at work.

Since if they are prioritised it's unlikely they will be protected before the school term end its pointless.

Unless they want to to be rewarded so they can have a nice summer holiday??

Vaccine is to protect everyone . The children , their families , the wider community. It’s not just teachers who work in schools .And what will happen re July provision?

dubal

But if the vaccine for teachers is to protect them at work.

Since if they are prioritised it's unlikely they will be protected before the school term end its pointless.

Unless they want to to be rewarded so they can have a nice summer holiday??

Darwin

Beasty wrote: »

I do not believe that for one minute

Someone in their 60s with this virus is 70 times more likely to die than someone in their 20s with it. The science is pretty clear

I don't dispute at all the somebody in their 60s are more are risk, but let's put to bed first that all teachers are in their 20s, they most definitely are not.
Other countries such as USA, Italy, Croatia, Germany, Austria to name a few have already prioritised frontline workers for vaccination.
It has been shown that the most effective way of reducing the R rate is to close schools as they are now doing in France. Therefore it makes perfect sense to prioritise those who are most at risk of catching it after the most vulnerable have been taken care of.

selectamatic

Beasty wrote: »

I do not believe that for one minute

Someone in their 60s with this virus is 70 times more likely to die than someone in their 20s with it. The science is pretty clear

Yep very clear on mortality.

However definitely not clear on the impact to spread and the reopening of society/economy.

The USA, Israel and the UAE have prioritised key workers along with those who are vulnerable.

Obviously with an emphasis on the vulnerable first and foremost. In fact I believe the UAE are gone to strictly those who are vulnerable now for a while after many key workers have been vaccinated.

Beasty

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

Funny how the “ science” prioritises school staff and police in most other countries.

I do not believe that for one minute

Someone in their 60s with this virus is 70 times more likely to die than someone in their 20s with it. The science is pretty clear

byhookorbycrook

Funny how the “ science” prioritises school staff and police in most other countries.

Natterjack from Kerry

It looks like a face saving exercise now for teachers and gardai with a bit of creative ambiguity and language thrown in.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/gardaiand-teachers-say-a-twin-track-approach-must-be-takento-covid-19-vaccination-40273865.html

A twin track approach with both priority groups, and age based roll outs, to happen in parallel. Which of course is a nonsense. There is only one track. There is a finite amount of vaccine and vaccination resource. But things will probably happen quickly enough in the next 3 months that there will be no real difference, or clearcut who is where, in the queue. The 'twin track' idea just looks like a typical fudging so that representatives and negotiators are not shown up for not have gotten anything changed for their members.

It is against the nature of such established unions to ever bow to a greater good, but to fight to the end for whatever is best for their members - the getting of anything in the end being the proof that they were right to fight for it. But looks like NIAC, NPHET, and the govt, all holding firm on the clearcut science based age based programme. I could see them ostensibly going for the twin track idea, which can be presented as doing something for them, but in reality will make no difference to the timetable for the vaste majority. They will just have different way of registering or notified, which will give the illusion of them being different to the greater public. And will be easilty scalable - any other interest groups playing hardball can be added in the same way - with the same fundamental no change, despite the negotiating choreography.

wirelessdude01

km79 wrote: »

Of course not
Simon Harris is too busy telling every other minister how to do their jobs
He “hopes” to have them back in Septmeber though .......I await his Instagram update as to how this will happen

Hasn't he now moved to TikTok as his preferred outlet ðŸ˜‚

km79

combat14 wrote: »

does any one know if all further education and third level students are back in school/ college on the 12 april or do they stay fully online at that stage

Of course not
Simon Harris is too busy telling every other minister how to do their jobs
He “hopes” to have them back in Septmeber though .......I await his Instagram update as to how this will happen

nothing

combat14 wrote: »

does any one know if all further education and third level students are back in school/ college on the 12 april or do they stay fully online at that stage

Seems to be remaining online as there's no mention of a return, until we're back in level 3 or lower

combat14

does any one know if all further education and third level students are back in school/ college on the 12 april or do they stay fully online at that stage

lulublue22

From a personal point of view I’m not too pushed re vac list. Though I’m well out of my 20’s I’m healthy with no underlying health conditions and I’m not in a position whereby I could spread it to vulnerable extended family members. I realise that this is not true for a lot of my colleagues who have genuine fears re the potential spread of covid to their families and loved ones.
From a professional perspective though I don’t understand given the importance for children’s emotional , social and academic wellbeing that the gov , advocacy groups and parents have placed on in person education. For the last year a cornerstone of gov policy has been to keep schools open due to the detrimental effects of school closures. Concerns have been raised as to the regression of children with additional needs , the impact of school closures on children in DEIS schools , the inequitable access to education that arises due to lack of resources for on line learning.
Not vaccinating school staff will result in rolling class and possibly school closures. Subs are very very thin on the ground. Will parents and the general public be happy with this continuing on into a new school year. No one is advocating prioritising teachers over the elderly and / or those with underlying health conditions but if we value in person education as much as we say we do it makes absolutely no sense for a 50 year old wfh to be vaccinated before a 35 year old teacher.

byhookorbycrook

We need to think beyond death as the sole measure of failure in the Covid battle .
In any case, schools will be forced to close more and more even if the 21 year old teacher “only” gets a “ mild dose ,” because there will be no-one to replace her . Likewise the SNAs and school bus escorts. The same applies to the early childhood and crèche sector .

If schools are inherently safe , why were classes other than Leaving and 5th years told to remain learning from home ?