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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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The_Conductor

DataDude wrote: »

My point in that post was more to counteract the notion that the public sector cohort of workers can easily afford to live in Dublin and therefore why would they leave. I think the average public sector wage is roughly €50k. It's good money, better than the private sector, but it doesn't go a long way in the Dublin housing market.

The median public sector employee is on a payscale that tops out at EUR38k (HSE or civil service) after 14-20 years service.

In the last call for movements out of Dublin in the public sector (2018) almost 3/4 of those who applied were Clerical Officers on an average salary of EUR32.5k (their salary scale goes up to EUR38k- after 20 years service, however, any of the long servicing COs were less likely to want to move (as they had put down roots in communities)).

When EOs and higher grades were asked why they were not willing to relocate- the largest cohort of them said their reason was roots in the community, the second largest cohort (and actually the youngest staff in the questionaire) said moving would be detrimental to their careers and any hope they might have of ultimately succeeding in promotional competitions.

So- most of the jobs moving- are clerical in nature and newbie staff who don't have roots in their communities. Anyone over the age of 30 was extremely unlikely to apply for a transfer, regardless of where they came from.

The PSEU used publish these surveys all the time- Forsa haven't had as many- and they have tended to focus on clerical rather than executive grades.

DataDude

Pussyhands wrote: »

If you've lived all your life in Dublin then chances of moving I think are nil. Country living is a big change. Even a regular occurance like slurry spreading I think would put city dwellers off.

Your friends are not there.

I'm from the countryside and I don't plan on moving back. Rural Ireland everyone knows your business, terrible amount of begrudgery. Anyone with ambition is seen to have notions.

A simple thing in Dublin like going to the airport requires way more planning and cost.

I'm sure some people will up sticks and move, but it's a massive change of lifestyle.

Have to say I don't agree.

And even were it true, there's still a significant number of people not from Dublin forced to live there by their jobs. A couple of lads on my team, graduated a few years. All 3 not from Dublin and living in house shares. Earning "good money" but still spending absurd percentage of their wage on rent. They've been home for the last 12 months and I can sense their thoughts wandering. Expecting the notice to be handed in any day now as they can move to a rival who's committed to full WFH. Alternatively, if they're smart, they'll use the threat to strong arm us into giving them the same option.

P.S. I don't think I've ever met someone who considers proximity to the airport as a key factor in buying a house. How many holidays do you go on???

The_Conductor

yagan wrote: »

This is hilarious but not untypical of the Dublincentric view that urbanity ends outside the M50.

The simple fact is that there's many urban centres around this country that can offer a superior quality of life even with lower than Dublin wages.

It would be an excellent way of cutting public sector wages- by benchmarking them against the local cost of living. Seeing as only a minority of the public sector are in Dublin to begin with- there could be significant savings made. Of course there would be war if you suggested this.

newuser99999

DataDude wrote: »

.

P.S. I don't think I've ever met someone who considers proximity to the airport as a key factor in buying a house. How many holidays do you go on???

It’s such a ridiculous statement hahahaha. I’d much rather fly out of Knock, Shannon, Cork or Farranfore than I would Dublin. One of the worst airports I’ve been to.

The Spider

Pussyhands wrote: »

If you've lived all your life in Dublin then chances of moving I think are nil. Country living is a big change. Even a regular occurance like slurry spreading I think would put city dwellers off.

Your friends are not there.

I'm from the countryside and I don't plan on moving back. Rural Ireland everyone knows your business, terrible amount of begrudgery. Anyone with ambition is seen to have notions.

A simple thing in Dublin like going to the airport requires way more planning and cost.

I'm sure some people will up sticks and move, but it's a massive change of lifestyle.

Ah c’mon there’s not much slurry spreading goes on in Waterford City, or any other city for that matter. As for going to the airport, it’s around an hour and forty five minutes from Waterford and it’s motorway all the way, not exactly a massive hardship.

If you’re gong to the airport from Gorey it’s around an hour and twenty minutes again not exactly a huge amount of time (Granted there is some slurry spreading in Gorey)

Pussyhands

yagan wrote: »

This is hilarious but not untypical of the Dublincentric view that urbanity ends outside the M50.

The simple fact is that there's many urban centres around this country that can offer a superior quality of life even with lower than Dublin wages.

There was specific mention of towns and villages.

Pussyhands

The Spider wrote: »

Ah c’mon there’s not much slurry spreading goes on in Waterford City, or any other city for that matter. As for going to the airport, it’s around an hour and forty five minutes from Waterford and it’s motorway all the way, not exactly a massive hardship.

If you’re gong to the airport from Gorey it’s around an hour and twenty minutes again not exactly a huge amount of time (Granted there is some slurry spreading in Gorey)

I don't think Waterford City is the target of this programme...The population of Waterford City is about 60k...you'd need a massive amount moving there to have an impact.

jill_valentine

cnocbui wrote: »

Well This a remarkable turn around in attitude. I suggested earlier that people who can't afford to buy in Dublin should perhaps look outside of Dublin where housing is cheaper and i had my head bitten off. Now it's a great and sensible idea. :rolleyes:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116673947&postcount=6470

One of these things is not like the other.

"I think people will have the option to move out of Dublin in future" and "hasn't it occurred to you to just move somewhere cheaper?" are not the same thing.

The deciding factor is work. People need to live where they can work, and it's not altogether clear how that looks yet, so all this remains hypothetical. We're talking about a near future market here, not an existing one.

Discussing possibilities offered by the prospect of WFH - which I've been talking about since being involved in my company's rollout, roughly around this time last year - isn't remotely the same as scolding people for not having already done the things people have very patiently explained to you have not been viable options for some time, based on your misunderstanding of the modern market.

What do you suggest to that nurse? What apartments did you mean in Limerick? How much do you think a phone upgrade costs? How do you propose people get BOI, AIB and KBC'S internal risk appetite guidelines changed so they can get mortgages for derelicts?

yagan

Pussyhands wrote: »

There was specific mention of towns and villages.

Towns and villages, what with donkeys and priests roaming the streets?

Have you ever lived in an Irish urban centre outside of Dublin?

Pussyhands

DataDude wrote: »

P.S. I don't think I've ever met someone who considers proximity to the airport as a key factor in buying a house. How many holidays do you go on???

It's a service...

People already made the move out, hence why there's things called commuter towns.

I really think people overestimate how many will move. It's easy to say now, oh let's move to the countryside when everything is locked up and the only difference between country and city is the amount of space in your house you have.

We've heard the things like "Covid has shown us what really matters!"...Once this is over we'll be back to normal.

Pussyhands

yagan wrote: »

Towns and villages, what with donkeys and priests roaming the streets?

Have you ever lived in an Irish urban centre outside of Dublin?

I'm literally from one of the towns earmarked on news reports today as prime benefactors of this plan....

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

It's an excuse to give grants to a much favoured sector in the past
The publicans

I'd really question making the pub a workplace in Ireland

There's so many things that could go wrong

All part of the conspiracy as some publicans are also developers. Shock horror

Cyrus

newuser99999 wrote: »

It’s such a ridiculous statement hahahaha. I’d much rather fly out of Knock, Shannon, Cork or Farranfore than I would Dublin. One of the worst airports I’ve been to.

Hardly any more ridiculous than the above might not be an amazing airport but it’s certainly the best one we have.

givyjoe

The Spider wrote: »

Completely disagree with this, vast majority in IT and similar office setups will have remote working, big multinationals have already come out and said remote is the way forward and thats who the indigenous companies are competing with.

The very least will be a blended approach 1-2 days on the office and the rest remote, if a company especially in IT wants staff in full time, prepare to lose the talent, most IT staff already have one foot out the door at the best of times, most leave after two to three years if they havent been promoted.

Only option really is if ypu want your staff in the office full time to pay more than twitter and give better benefits, how likely is that?

I think a bigger issue is for all the smaller companies down the country who hae decent teams, now losung staff to the multinational as they can't compete on salary or benefits.

Good luck getting a job in a multinational, based here, in the future so. If they go fully remote there is literally zero incentive for them to hire staff here, of they can be got elsewhere, for the same or less cost and arguably a larger pool of equal talent to choose from. While multinationals INITIALLY may have been all for remote working, that isn't the case at this point as they're starting to see a lot of the negative effects of FT WFH appearing. Very few if any companies will be fully remote and even fewer staff will be. It won't be long before FT WFH start getting serious fomo while their colleagues return at least some of the time to the office. Whether that be social interaction, promotions etc, they absolutely will be missing out at home. These multinationals are also largely staffed by highly mobile immigrants, the absolute last place they're going to be moving to is ballygobackwards.

As I said, very few will be 5 days, WFH, 1 day in the office is pointless and hubs just aren't a reasonable prospect for the vast majority of companies. Multinationals make up a small proportion of our total workforce. They will not be the ones making a noticeable difference to the wider housing market. They may make a dent in the premium rental market in Dublin however.

standardg60

givyjoe wrote: »

Good luck getting a job in a multinational, based here, in the future so. If they go fully remote there is literally zero incentive for them to hire staff here, of they can be got elsewhere, for the same or less cost and arguably a larger pool of equal talent to choose from. While multinationals INITIALLY may have been all for remote working, that isn't the case at this point as they're starting to see a lot of the negative effects of FT WFH appearing. Very few if any companies will be fully remote and even fewer staff will be. It won't be long before FT WFH start getting serious fomo while their colleagues return at least some of the time to the office. Whether that be social interaction, promotions etc, they absolutely will be missing out at home. These multinationals are also largely staffed by highly mobile immigrants, the absolute last place they're going to be moving to is ballygobackwards.

As I said, very few will be 5 days, WFH, 1 day in the office is pointless and hubs just aren't a reasonable prospect for the vast majority of companies. Multinationals make up a small proportion of our total workforce. They will not be the ones making a noticeable difference to the wider housing market. They may make a dent in the premium rental market in Dublin however.

Zero incentive?
What about the only reason they're here in the first place?
Tax

standardg60

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm literally from one of the towns earmarked on news reports today as prime benefactors of this plan....

You are batting well.

What people don't generally realise is that the more a Government financially interferes with an open market the more skewed, ie bubble, that market becomes.
Has anyone asked why big international property funds have seen Dublin as a viable 'build to rent' investment? What do they see?
A long term commitment by multinationals to hire here due to tax reasons?
A Government strategy to create a rent floor based Hap?
A parallel Government strategy to inflate a housing market based on being both a lender to developers and a lender to buyers, thereby putting house ownership further and further away from renters?

Or all of the above?

givyjoe

standardg60 wrote: »

Zero incentive?
What about the only reason they're here in the first place?
Tax

And you think we're going to be able to keep that tax regime in place? And yes, zero incentive to hire FUTURE staff based here when they can get better, based remotely elsewhere. They're not going to shut up shop immediately. It's also not the only reason they're here, one of them though.

PommieBast

Villa05 wrote: »

It's an excuse to give grants to a much favoured sector in the past
The publicans

I'd really question making the pub a workplace in Ireland

There's so many things that could go wrong

I assume they would refit the places rather than leave in all the plumbing :rolleyes:

But yes it is basically a sop to a sector that has been abandoned. 18 months with little or no business is going to see a lot of pubs close permanently.

standardg60

givyjoe wrote: »

And you think we're going to be able to keep that tax regime in place? And yes, zero incentive to hire FUTURE staff based here when they can get better, based remotely elsewhere. They're not going to shut up shop immediately. It's also not the only reason they're here, one of them though.

Glad you admit that they are here for a reason at least.
Do i think that reason can remain long term? No i don't.
We are sleepwalking into a scenario of mass multinational exodus, creating a housing/rental bubble on it's temporary back.
And who's to blame?
Anyone who's posted on this thread complaining about their inability to climb onto the property ladder must also ask themselves if they mentioned 'the homeless crisis' in various polls leading up to the last election. Those who promised action gained traction leading those who gained power to run scared.
Government parties are only ever interested in the next election, hence an interference in a market in which they should play no part.
What if car ownership became a fundamental right, and tax incentives, rent subsidies, shared equities, and help to buy schemes became the norm.
Do you think prices would rise or fall?
We are all authors of our own downfall, all hoisters of our own petard, all that remains is how long the pretence can be maintained by cheap Government borrowing.
The State is the new Anglo.

Pussyhands

So is there anyone out there getting value?

Everything just seems squeezed to the max. I'm kinda nervous about buying in this time as it won't be my long term home (will rent out a room though so will cover some of the mortgage)

hometruths

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm literally from one of the towns earmarked on news reports today as prime benefactors of this plan....

Where did you see towns named? Was this news outlets speculating on where the investment would go, or government?

riclad

if you live in a small town you can buy a house at a low price,
considering mortgage expense,s, you will have maybe a better quality of life,theres less noise, zero traffic jams,easy to find a parking space.
If you can get a full time job there .
if you are working for certain companys, eg intel,
google, etc you have to live in or close to dublin.
Most big civil service government offices are located in dublin
the government does not help small landlords financially .
the goverment only helps first time buyers mostly.
i think its a great idea in that it will increase investment in rural towns,
it will reduce traffic,
its like they copied wework,
eg use old empty buildings for shared office space
with modern faciltys like high speed internet wifi.
i don,t think the government wants to inflate house prices,
i think they want people on a average wage buy a house.

i think in 2019 the government announced a plan to build 1000,s of
social housing units,
before the covid crisis happened to close down all building sites.

theballz

McWilliams was right in latest podcast. Anyone who buys now is mad.

standardg60

theballz wrote: »

McWilliams was right in latest podcast. Anyone who buys now is mad.

Whilst he was right in identifying a state influenced property market, i think the bubble will go on for a number of years yet.
Put it this way, if i was able to avail of any Government inducements to get on the ladder i would be filling my boots, both in terms of help to buy or shared equity schemes. If the banks are having so much difficulty repossessing homes due to non performing loans then what chance has the State? Imagine the uproar.

Pussyhands

It's so hard to know. I remember thinking back in 2019 it was a bad time to buy, and here we are 2 years later.

It's head wrecking. I don't want to be waiting each year wondering if there'll be a renewal on the rent or if the rent is going up. I want to take power of my own and build up equity but the downsides are high too.

ExMachina1000

How many houses and apartments will Councils/government buy up annually when OGorman's own door replacement for direct provision is rolled out?

I understand it's not a fixed number either. More arrivals means more accommodation. No limit set

MacronvFrugals

Whilst low interest rates is having investors driving up property everywhere as always the Irish put the cream on top.

Funds sweating to come here to directly either build to rent or buy and leasing to councils at inflation linked rates, even Eddie Hobbs is trying to get in on the action!

And we actually think we’re grown up like the Scandinavian countries, only someone who hasn’t lived in these places would even say something like that.

Stark

Asking prices aren't crazy but people seem to have completely abandoned the idea of having a walk away price in the bidding wars.

Also I'm pretty sure this bid before you view thing is pushing prices up. I'd say a fair few of the people who love to view properties with no intent of buying are now pushing the bids to the max in the knowledge that they're under no obligation to go through with the purchase. Quite a few estate agents I've dealt with have only asked me for proof of funds when the bidding was closed so you could have all sorts of messers.

combat14

commercial property market must surely be an absolute mess at this stage ..

Owners of Kildare Village expect ‘significant impact’ on business from Covid-19

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/owners-of-kildare-village-expect-significant-impact-on-business-from-covid-19-1.4523119%3fmode=amp

interesting to see rental model used:

Value Retail’s business model is as a landlord to fashion brands, and it charges them a royalty fee based on sales instead of a fixed rent.

so maybe tenants not as badly affected as other retailers

meanwhile looks like summer is on the verge of being cancelled - economy and govt finances will be in serious problems if we dont reopen soon ...

Easing lockdown now could result in new wave of Covid cases lasting until mid-summer, Nphet warns

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/easing-lockdownnow-could-result-in-new-wave-of-covid-cases-lasting-until-mid-summer-nphet-warns-40254516.html

theballz

standardg60 wrote: »

Whilst he was right in identifying a state influenced property market, i think the bubble will go on for a number of years yet.
Put it this way, if i was able to avail of any Government inducements to get on the ladder i would be filling my boots, both in terms of help to buy or shared equity schemes. If the banks are having so much difficulty repossessing homes due to non performing loans then what chance has the State? Imagine the uproar.

The biggest issue is supply.

I’m a first time single buyer, I was bidding on a ground floor apartment a few weeks ago. It went for 70k over asking price (without being able to view it.)

6 months prior, an apartment in the same building top floor went for cheaper.

Rents are falling too. It’s not a time to be buying, the government needs to let construction back or this will be years as you correctly said.