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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

I had a 60% deposit for my first house and had the mortgage paid off in about a year with two incomes working on it.

My current house I bought shortly before McBoofhead was saying don't buy. Paid it off some years ago and now I have an asset I can sell to help finance my move to an actullay hot market instead of this slightly warm one.

I don't know what decade it was that you had a 60% deposit and the stroke of good fortune to pay of your first mortgage in a year, but it's not the 2020s. Lets call that what it is: a story from a different Ireland that doesn't apply in 2021 to first time buyers of any stripe.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

I don't know what decade it was that you had a 60% deposit and the stroke of good fortune to pay of your first mortgage in a year, but it's not the 2020s. Lets call that what it is: a story from a different Ireland that doesn't apply in 2021 to first time buyers of any stripe.

It wasn't in Ireland and of course it was a different time. However, there is another side to the tale that is appropriate and that is the expectations of FTBs in Ireland are often unrealisticaly high.

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

Central banks will pump money until inflation hits 2% asset classes will rise for a while yet.

Property, shares and bonds- are at silly prices.
People have access to more money that they know what to do with- and it costs money to park it as cash even in central banks.
We already have massive asset price inflation- completely irrational asset price inflation- and the additional liquidity is pumping up asset prices, and down bond prices, it is doing absolutely nothing for inflation- its not getting out to the open economy.

If Central banks want to manipulate the inflation rate- they need to push money out into the open economy- not towards assets like shares, bonds, property etc.

enricoh

JimmyVik wrote: »

Also councils and REITS are literally knocking on their doors and asking do they want to sell to them.
A guy from Fingal coco knocked on my friends door (a house, not even up for sale). Introduced himself and asked would he be interested in selling to the council.
He said no. But he saw him going to the next house.
I now someone working in there and I asked what the story was. I thought it might be a con man going around. They said it was legit.

Jaysus, that is nuts. Some serious government dough getting squandered at the mo. I wonder who's going to carry the can when it goes pear shaped?! Lads that get up early in the morning as leo says may get up a bit earlier!

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

It wasn't in Ireland and of course it was a different time. However, there is another side to the tale that is appropriate and that is the expectations of FTBs in Ireland are often unrealisticaly high.

So it's got nothing to do with the price of turnips then.

You'll forgive FTBs for not listening to old man cnoc lecturing them on how he bought his starter home for tuppence and a gobstopper in another country in his early 20s with his true grit, indefatigability and moral courage. Meanwhile, back in 2021...

fliball123

Yurt! wrote: »

So it's got nothing to do with the price of turnips then.

You'll forgive FTBs for not listening to old man cnoc lecturing them on how he bought his starter home for tuppence and a gobstopper in another country in his early 20s with his true grit, indefatigability and moral courage. Meanwhile, back in 2021...

He is right in one aspect the current generation are one that wants it and wants it now. You only have to look at indicators like I-phone sales they want the latest and greatest and dont care about price except when they cant afford it or have to save for it. The day of buying a house and doing it up one room at a time is gone

Yurt2

fliball123 wrote: »

He is right in one aspect the current generation are one that wants it and wants it now. You only have to look at indicators like I-phone sales they want the latest and greatest and dont care about price except when they cant afford it or have to save for it. The day of buying a house and doing it up one room at a time is gone

This is an i-phones and avocado toast post. FTBs are savers, the generation in their 20/30s you're talking about are savers among the best in Europe and comparable to any generation (probably more so despite the interest rates). It's the generation before them that are PCP junkies.

Bolded: When they can, they do.

TobyHolmes

Yurt! wrote: »

This is an i-phones and avocado toast post. FTBs are savers, the generation in their 20/30s you're talking about are savers among the best in Europe and comparable to any generation (probably more so despite the interest rates). It's the generation before them that are PCP junkies.

Bolded: When they can, they do.

i think thats the point in alot of the recent posts. just save the money and wait. and then buy when the market is more rational.

and whether you think the posters arguments are turnips or avocado - they are just expressing their views from experience.

Yurt2

TobyHolmes wrote: »

i think thats the point in alot of the recent posts. just save the money and wait. and then buy when the market is more rational.

and whether you think the posters arguments are turnips or avocado - they are just expressing their views from experience.

They're free to express their views, but I'm free to say they're in a time-warp. And they sure as hell aren't on the sharp end of the market trying to start a family and secure a home.

TobyHolmes

Yurt! wrote: »

They're free to express their views, but I'm free to say they're in a time-warp. And they sure as hell aren't on the sharp end of the market trying to start a family and secure a home.

fair enough

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

So it's got nothing to do with the price of turnips then.

You'll forgive FTBs for not listening to old man cnoc lecturing them on how he bought his starter home for tuppence and a gobstopper in another country in his early 20s with his true grit, indefatigability and moral courage. Meanwhile, back in 2021...

... FTBs want a new build turn-key with all the mod cons and trimmings with a high BER rating and preferably with some save the planet solar panels.

I didn't have much money in my early 20's as I was an impoverished student.

My current house is the only new house I have owned. I couldn't afford a finished product so bought something finished to only second fixings finish and then finished it off myself over time, starting in 2001.

Meanwhile in 2021, it's a great time to sell and move to another rung in the ladder.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

He is right in one aspect the current generation are one that wants it and wants it now. You only have to look at indicators like I-phone sales they want the latest and greatest and dont care about price except when they cant afford it or have to save for it. The day of buying a house and doing it up one room at a time is gone

I’m pretty sure you literally can’t do this anymore? I expressed an interest in a house listed at 800k. Fixer upper. Estate agent wouldn’t engage with me until I showed proof of funds for €1.15m as they said the bank wouldn’t provide Finance unless we had enough money to restore it which they estimated to be €350k.

I’ve posted about it before, but any attempt to paint a young couple earning €35k each struggling to save up to buy a house in Dublin as ‘lazy’ and saying ‘if only they didn’t waste money on x, it’d be easy’ is quite possibly the most absurd thing I’ve ever heard.

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

... FTBs want a new build turn-key with all the mod cons and trimmings with a high BER rating and preferably with some save the planet solar panels.

Meanwhile in 2021, it's a great time to sell and move to another rung in the ladder.

:rolleyes:

'nuff said

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

They're free to express their views, but I'm free to say they're in a time-warp. And they sure as hell aren't on the sharp end of the market trying to start a family and secure a home.

Give it a rest, I have been on the sharp end of the market trying to start a family and get a home. You are living in la-la land if you think it's been easy at any point - woe is me, it's never, ever been this hard - you don't know what it's like, man, you had it so easy...

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

:rolleyes:

'nuff said

Another rung in my context will very possibly be a trade down or sideways. You don't get much for your money in NZ. :rolleyes:

Pelezico

TobyHolmes wrote: »

Ok dude LOL

You have been educated since coming to this thread. Irish property is not among the most expensive in the world....but guess what....it feels like it.

Why would anyone buy with so little on the market? It doesn't not make sense. Also there are thousands of mortgages not being serviced at present because of covid.

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

Give it a rest, I have been on the sharp end of the market trying to start a family and get a home. You are living in la-la land if you think it's been easy at any point - woe is me, it's never, ever been this hard - you don't know what it's like, man, you had it so easy...

Cnoc, you were mouthing about young people and solar panels posting about your 20th century tale where you paid off your first mortgage in a year with your 60% deposit. Bully for you and three cheers for the dumb luck being born in an era where that wasn't science fiction.

I know plenty of people across all social strata in Ireland. Precisely 0% of people are able to do that on their own steam. You need a time machine to go back and post from when that post might have made sense, the problem was the internet wasn't invented.

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

McWilliams is divisive on here but interesting nonetheless...

MacronvFrugals wrote:

"David McWilliams urges house buyers to stop searching immediately as market is at â€˜peak dysfunctionâ€™"

I thought we had established that on this thread. Buyers are competing against a government using their money plus investment trusts who pay no tax on profits. Buyers are cannon fodder

There is no fair market

This is banana rebublic yet again

Pelezico

Villa05 wrote: »

I thought we had established that on this thread. Buyers are competing against a government using their money plus investment trusts who pay no tax on profits. Buyers are cannon fodder

There is no fair market

This is banana rebublic yet again

It is a black comedy. You bid on house only to be outbid by a state actor who has used your money to bid against you.

Oh and because you bid against this state actor, well your taxes must increase to cover the extra cost he has incurred by bidding against you.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

Cnoc, you were mouthing about young people and solar panels posting about your 20th century tale where you paid off your first mortgage in a year with your 60% deposit. Bully for you and three cheers for the dumb luck being born in an era where that wasn't science fiction.

I know plenty of people across all social strata in Ireland. Precisely 0% of people are able to do that on their own steam. You need a time machine to go back and post from when that post might have made sense, the problem was the internet wasn't invented.

Spare me. You can buy apartments in limerick for 60-70K. FTBs in capital cities of countries have never had it particularly easy. If you can't afford capital city prices, consider moving to somewhere cheaper. FTB's wanting turn-key new-builds in a capital city whinging about un affordability should maybe do a rethink. I'll bet none of them own a mobile phone thats older than 3 years.

jill_valentine

DataDude wrote: »

I’m pretty sure you literally can’t do this anymore? I expressed an interest in a house listed at 800k. Fixer upper. Estate agent wouldn’t engage with me until I showed proof of funds for €1.15m as they said the bank wouldn’t provide Finance unless we had enough money to restore it which they estimated to be €350k.

I’ve posted about it before, but any attempt to paint a young couple earning €35k each struggling to save up to buy a house in Dublin as ‘lazy’ and saying ‘if only they didn’t waste money on x, it’d be easy’ is quite possibly the most absurd thing I’ve ever heard.

I've tried explaining this before too. In fact, I'm fairly sure it was in direct response to the same poster. It is not a perception, it is a fact. It's a feature of post recession risk appetite conventions.

Banks don't care if you'd be happy sleeping in a tent until the roof is fixed. They will not give you a mortgage for a fixer upper without proof you have the means to finance what they consider enough to renovate it to the standard they consider adequate, as soon as possible. Those renovations must also add value to the property they consider to be in excess of their cost.

The reason for this is because they want a viable asset as collateral for your loan as quickly as possible, not something you couldn't afford to stop collapsing since you bought it.

As I pointed out then, it's even visible in how mortgage marketing has changed. Your classic can-do mortgage couple was nearly always shown doing up some crapshack with their sleeves rolled up back in the day. Banks have deliberately steered their marketing imagery away from that, which is why the young couple is usually just moving around furniture now.

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

Spare me. You can buy apartments in limerick for 60-70K. FTBs in capital cities of countries have never had it particularly easy. If you can't afford capital city prices, consider moving to somewhere cheaper. FTB's wanting turn-key new-builds in a capital city whinging about un affordability should maybe do a rethink. I'll bet none of them own a mobile phone thats older than 3 years.

I took the liberty of searching Limerick city on daft. A whopping single property (pictured) in that price range. 75k gets you great value there alright. Anyone want to do a whiparound for cnoc's time machine? More of the iphone guff.

ZWVkMGQ0YjNhZjNhNDI0MjlkZDlkOGM1MGUxMjE1OWXo3-hlvF4j11u1-K-7Jxo9aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy1ldS13ZXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9tZWRpYW1hc3Rlci1zM2V1L2YvZC9mZGE1OWJlZjA5Y2Q5MzVmMmMyM2I5MzkwNTEyMDRiMi5qcGd8fHwxMjAwfHx8fHx8fA==.webp

ZWVkMGQ0YjNhZjNhNDI0MjlkZDlkOGM1MGUxMjE1OWXo3-hlvF4j11u1-K-7Jxo9aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy1ldS13ZXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9tZWRpYW1hc3Rlci1zM2V1L2YvZC9mZGE1OWJlZjA5Y2Q5MzVmMmMyM2I5MzkwNTEyMDRiMi5qcGd8fHwxMjAwfHx8fHx8fA==.webp

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

You have been educated since coming to this thread. Irish property is not among the most expensive in the world....but guess what....it feels like it.

Why would anyone buy with so little on the market? It doesn't not make sense. Also there are thousands of mortgages not being serviced at present because of covid.

Look at FTB buyers view, who stuck paying high rents.
2019 it was worth to wait because of lots of uncertainty around Brexit.
2020 it was worth to wait because of Recession.
2021 it still is worth to wait because of low supplies.

You see the problem? Sometimes you just need to make a move, we don't know if it will get any better any time soon.

[Deleted User]

cnocbui wrote: »

Spare me. You can buy apartments in limerick for 60-70K. FTBs in capital cities of countries have never had it particularly easy. If you can't afford capital city prices, consider moving to somewhere cheaper. FTB's wanting turn-key new-builds in a capital city whinging about un affordability should maybe do a rethink. I'll bet none of them own a mobile phone thats older than 3 years.

Just one little example, in 1998 I started my career in Dublin, a house could be bought for approx twice the starting salary, a 3 bed semi. Now, a 3 bed semi costs over 10 times the starting salary.
So, it is hardly comparable

[Deleted User]

Not on hurry I looking for another car about 1 year
The maximum digits of cars for sale on donedeal was about 79 000 in July of 2020
The number was rising from 74 000 from about March of 2020
Then was full lockdown situation and dealers yards been closed
Today digits went to 81 000 from 75 000
Only per 2 months time and digits steady rising ! Also prices started falling at 10 per cent average.
When dealers yards are open for business !
It looks like people has less and less money if they putting them motors for sale !
The number of investors buy to let falling highly.
And last news from government propaganda says Why keep money in a bank ? Buy property for let ! Or put your money to stock market ( other words use them as toilet paper ).Hurry,Hurry,inflation on way !Trying make people spend them savings to move economy forward.This look like deflation on way !
Things does not look right lads.

TheSheriff

Deleted User wrote: »

Not on hurry I looking for another car about 1 year
The maximum digits of cars for sale on donedeal was about 79 000 in July of 2020
The number was rising from 74 000 from about March of 2020
Then was full lockdown situation and dealers yards been closed
Today digits went to 81 000 from 75 000
Only per 2 months time and digits steady rising ! Also prices started falling at 10 per cent average.
When dealers yards are open for business !
It looks like people has less and less money if they putting them motors for sale !
The number of investors buy to let falling highly.
And last news from government propaganda says Why keep money in a bank ? Buy property for let ! Or put your money to stock market ( other words use them as toilet paper ).Hurry,Hurry,inflation on way !Trying make people spend them savings to move economy forward.This look like deflation on way !
Things does not look right lads.

Serious question; Are you Neutralguy?

Danger781

We found a house that we thought looked interesting so emailed the estate agent to ask when a viewing would be possible. Estate Agent said that no viewings are happening but they are accepting vids via email. They will not us view without first lodging a bid. Is this normal practice?

TheSheriff

Marius34 wrote: »

Look at FTB buyers view, who stuck paying high rents.
2019 it was worth to wait because of lots of uncertainty around Brexit.
2020 it was worth to wait because of Recession.
2021 it still is worth to wait because of low supplies.

You see the problem? Sometimes you just need to make a move, we don't know if it will get any better any time soon.

+++++1 on this.

For years now the motto on here has been "bargains will be had next year".... for years.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

I took the liberty of searching Limerick city on daft. A whopping single property (pictured) in that price range. 75k gets you great value there alright. Anyone want to do a whiparound for cnoc's time machine? More of the iphone guff.

Snapped up, unsurprisingly. It was still for sale in Oct 2020.

Here it is, sale agreed: https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/2-st-john-s-court-brennan-s-row-limerick-city-limerick/4380806

2 Saint John's Court, Brennan's Row, Co. Limerick is for ...
[Search domain www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-2-saint-johns-court-brennans-row-co-limerick/2610006] https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-2-saint-johns-court-brennans-row-co-limerick/2610006
2 Saint John's Court, Brennan's Row, Co. Limerick a 1 Bed Apartment is now for sale by DNG Cusack Dunne on Daft.ie with an asking price of €70,000

Pelezico

TheSheriff wrote: »

+++++1 on this.

For years now the motto on here has been "bargains will be had next year".... for years.

Yiu could be right....massive bargains now compared to next year.