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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Don't forget my theory that the so-called vulture funds own a significant percentage of the vacant housing stock in the country and that when they decide to exit...

I’ve belittled that one as well.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I asked which ones I indulged.

you asked which fantasy was the wildest, i answered, as to which ones you indulged i really cba going back through the thread to pin point them to be honest.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

you asked which fantasy was the wildest, i answered, as to which ones you indulged i really cba going back through the thread to pin point them to be honest.

I asked which ones I indulged because I’ve never indulged any of his wild fantasies, as you call them.

hometruths

Though I must say I think he’s onto something about the weather!

Never considered the idea that our dreary weather lends our tax haven activities a veneer of respectability, contradicting the stereotypes of sandy beaches and pina coladas.

But now he mentions it... bang on the money once again Prop’s!

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Props being bang on the money is becoming quite the trend.

cool ill sit it out while you post stuff like this and thank each others posts then

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Assistant professor of architecture at UCD Orla Hegarty has been addressing the Soc Dems conference:

Sounds like she has a direct line to Props!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/construction-sector-spin-must-be-challenged-soc-dems-conference-told-1.4497193

and this is where our housing shortage is solved above shops and commercial units.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

and this is where our housing shortage is solved above shops and commercial units.

To be fair, neither me nor Orla Hegarty can take full credit for that idea. It was David McWilliams back in 2018:

"How come there are only 100,000 people living between the canals in Dublin when at the same time in Copenhagen there are close to 600,000 living in more or less the same footprint? Copenhagen a not high-rise city, rather it is an intensively-used six-storey city. The main difference is usage. In Copenhagen buildings are used in their entirety"

The possible big difference is that this time many of these types of buildings are actually controlled by foreign funds who may not be as willing to keep them as under-utilised for as long as their previous Irish owners did IMO

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

and this is where our housing shortage is solved above shops and commercial units.

Yep an example of something that Props posted on here and was immediately lampooned for, and then a similar idea subsequently aired by a respected commentator at a political party event, and subsequently reported in the media.

If experts such as this are spouting similar idea as Props, then those specific ideas cannot be dismissed as his wildest fantasies. You’ll need to try a bit harder.

Hubertj

For those leaving Dublin, follow the coffee. Key determining factor

https://www.starbucks.ie/store-locator?zoom=7&latLng=52.890887236468686%2C-8.492068113013127

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

aired by a respected commentator at a political party event, and subsequently reported in the media.

If experts such as this are spouting similar idea as Props, then those specific ideas cannot be dismissed as his wildest fantasies. You’ll need to try a bit harder.

an assistant professor at a soc dem event?

i wouldnt take that as validation of anything.

and as he said it self it came orginally from David McWilliams, i cant remember where you stand on him, i think it depends on what he is saying at the time.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

an assistant professor at a soc dem event?

i wouldnt take that as validation of anything.

and as he said it self it came orginally from David McWilliams, i cant remember where you stand on him, i think it depends on what he is saying at the time.

Sh's a Professor of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy and has been consulted by government, central bank, esri etc for expert opinion!

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

and as he said it self it came orginally from David McWilliams, i cant remember where you stand on him, i think it depends on what he is saying at the time.

Oddly enough yes, whether or not I agree with McWilliams depends on what he is saying!

Sometimes he says things I agree with, other times he says things I disagree with.

I adopt the same approach with Props posts. And your own. Hopefully I'm not an outlier in this!

drogon.

Hubertj wrote: »

For those leaving Dublin, follow the coffee. Key determining factor

https://www.starbucks.ie/store-locator?zoom=7&latLng=52.890887236468686%2C-8.492068113013127

Follow good coffee, not whatever they sell

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Sh's a Professor of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy and has been consulted by government, central bank, esri etc for expert opinion!

You should let her know that she has been promoted

https://people.ucd.ie/orla.hegarty/publications

PropQueries

Just looking at the share prices of the companies with most (all?) exposure to the Irish property market:

Cairn Homes: Today = €1.09 vs Jan 2018 = €2.00

Glenveagh: Today = €0.90 vs Jan 2018 = €1.26

Irish Reit: Today = €1.57 vs Dec. 2019 = €1.83

Hibernian Reit: Today = €1.15 vs May 2018 = €1.57

While Hibernian Reit (primarily office based investments) can be explained, why have the other three (primarily residential investments and primarily invested in the Greater Dublin region) moved in the opposite direction to what is both the public's perception and what the most recent data appears to show in relation to the movement of property prices in the Irish residential market?

Genuinely not a loaded question. Seems like one of the buys of the decade if someone is on the bullish side IMO

Even if someone believes the current low prices are down to the fact that share prices move according to international sentiment, they really should appear like a buy if someone believes that the Irish property market can indeed only go one way, rent or selling wise, going forward IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Just looking at the share prices of the companies with most (all?) exposure to the Irish property market:

Cairn Homes: Today = €1.09 vs Jan 2018 = €2.00

Glenveagh: Today = €0.90 vs Jan 2018 = €1.26

Irish Reit: Today = €1.57 vs Dec. 2019 = €1.83

Hibernian Reit: Today = €1.15 vs May 2018 = €1.57

While Hibernian Reit (primarily office based investments) can be explained, why have the other three (primarily residential investments and primarily invested in the Greater Dublin region) moved in the opposite direction to what is both the public's perception and what the most recent data appears to show in relation to the movement of property prices in the Irish residential market?

Genuinely not a loaded question. Seems like one of the buys of the decade if someone is on the bullish side IMO

Even if someone believes the current low prices are down to the fact that share prices move according to international sentiment, they really should appear like a buy if someone believes that the Irish property can indeed only go one way, rent or selling wise, going forward IMO

First off ideally you’d like to see them return to profitability, and secondly it depends on your view of the enterprise value , are glenveagh or cairn worth materially more than the 800m the market values them at right now ?

If they were you’d imagine someone would be looking to take them private .

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

First off ideally you’d like to see them return to profitability, and secondly it depends on your view of the enterprise value , are glenveagh or cairn worth materially more than the 800m the market values them at right now ?

If they were you’d imagine someone would be looking to take them private .

According to the Irish Times last week, Cairn Homes has 16,800 individual sites in the Dublin region. It's current market value is c. €800m

So, for Cairn Homes, it's basically completely valued at the current "market value" of their total sites?

That's a buy even if someone believes property prices will remain static going forward?

MacronvFrugals

Will we ever be able to fill these things?

"Permission granted for almost 20,000 student beds in 2020"

Apartments, powered by student accommodation demand, overtook houses when it came to planning permission being granted for new builds last year, while the green light for new homes overall grew by 13.5%.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40243325.html

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will we ever be able to fill these things?

"Permission granted for almost 20,000 student beds in 2020"

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40243325.html

Looks like the funds are finally getting through the "paperwork" from the €200 billion in distressed assets they purchased from NAMA and banks between 2012 and 2016 IMO

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will we ever be able to fill these things?

"Permission granted for almost 20,000 student beds in 2020"

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40243325.html

Instead of asking the boards “experts” I’d look at the HEA reports on the subject.
I doubt a lot of them will get built or will be pushed out a Number of years. Besides there are literally hundreds of thousands of vacant units out there, possibly more.

L1011

If people could stop repeating things over and over for whatever effect they think it'll have, that'd be nice. You've made your point, often ten times over

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will we ever be able to fill these things?

"Permission granted for almost 20,000 student beds in 2020"

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40243325.html

I think what's interesting is that even the local councils have no idea what's being built in their local areas. Back in 2019, DCC asked a developer who wanted to build student accommodation in Dublin 7:

"The council has told the developer it has “serious concerns” in relation to “unacceptable levels of overlooking” of the primary school. It has also directed a map be submitted showing all student accommodation facilities within 1km of the site along with a justification for building student accommodation rather than standard residential accommodation."

How can DCC not already have this information? To use young peoples slang... like really?

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/more-student-housing-planned-close-to-grangegorman-campus-1.3884130

jill_valentine

In the interest of a change of topic then, a hypothetical -

Let's say for the sake of argument WFH or partial WFH becomes an established, totally normal element of the Irish working economy. Outside of Dublin, what towns would be most likely to benefit from the more mobile workforce and see a corresponding increase in property value? Would commuter/dormer areas suffer without their location offering the same draw anymore?

[Deleted User]

jill_valentine wrote: »

In the interest of a change of topic then, a hypothetical -

Let's say for the sake of argument WFH or partial WFH becomes an established, totally normal element of the Irish working economy. Outside of Dublin, what towns would be most likely to benefit from the more mobile workforce and see a corresponding increase in property value? Would commuter/dormer areas suffer without their location offering the same draw anymore?

I would say parts of Kerry would go up in price. Lovely place to live (I grew up there) but not a lot of well paid jobs there.

Hubertj

jill_valentine wrote: »

In the interest of a change of topic then, a hypothetical -

Let's say for the sake of argument WFH or partial WFH becomes an established, totally normal element of the Irish working economy. Outside of Dublin, what towns would be most likely to benefit from the more mobile workforce and see a corresponding increase in property value? Would commuter/dormer areas suffer without their location offering the same draw anymore?

I think that depends on a few things. Look at the existing availability of broadband and also the national broadband plan to see what will be coming. Personally I would only plan for partial wfh irrespective of my current job in case I change jobs. Therefore somewhere commutable to a city maybe 2 days per week.

[Deleted User]

The most common problem that developer can buy journalist which will tell what developer want
The other problem the businessman could legally buy politician trough the lobby
The government will use media spreading news trying move economy forward and win second election
Guys,I dont know what you believe but for me all mess about the property in media at the moment remind group of people who try restart economy from first gear and get same profit as on 5th gear in 2019

thefridge2006

DataDude wrote: »

We have a dedicated office that calculates house price inflation. Dublin house prices are down since October 2018 in both nominal and real terms. That is a fact. That is not my opinion.

Picking a clearly inferior dataset to try and contradict the official data is more disingenuous that anything you have accused props of before. In fact he has had comments moderated for less ‘obviously false’ statements.

AMEN... Think he got threatened with a forum ban recently for something recently too?

[Deleted User]

If somebody did not understand what is going on I will try explain simple words
The mister X felt down from stairs and went to coma
The mister X was very big businessman and he paid wages to millions people
At the moment the company of mister X continue pay wages
But there is questions for how long management will continue pay wages,will mister X will wake up from coma and will be mister X same as he was before
Too many unknown and none known
At the moment if you still getting wages there is the best time buy property because if mister X will wake up there is same chance not get them as get them same as still have job to pay mortgage or get the mortgage
But one day to reduce mortgage rate to move builders forward mister X could decide take houses of those who will not pay mortgage
Nobody except God know what will going on.

ionapaul

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If somebody did not understand what is going on I will try explain simple words
The mister X felt down from stairs and went to coma
The mister X was very big businessman and he paid wages to millions people
At the moment the company of mister X continue pay wages
But there is questions for how long management will continue pay wages,will mister X will wake up from coma and will be mister X same as he was before
Too many unknown and none known
At the moment if you still getting wages there is the best time buy property because if mister X will wake up there is same chance not get them as get them same as still have job to pay mortgage or get the mortgage
But one day to reduce mortgage rate to move builders forward mister X could decide take houses of those who will not pay mortgage
Nobody except God know what will going on.

I'm not sure you succeeded in making a complex situation easy to understand!

[Deleted User]

ionapaul wrote: »

I'm not sure you succeeded in making a complex situation easy to understand!

We are in situation which world never was before.
And everything what was do job before not work anymore.