schmittel wrote: » The problem the councils have is they are committed to paying open market rent, or a % of market rent. As long as RPZ rules are in place, and landlords are preferring to keep units vacant or come up with three months rent free wheezes, rather than reduce the rent, market rents will remain as they are. Councils may wish to trim the rental budget but the leases say otherwise!
Villa05 wrote: » Watched a program on amazon prime last night that claimed Bush junior borrowed more than all the previous presidents combined As did Obama I'm sure that trump and now Biden will carry on that trend. The thesis of the program was that this borrowing was blowing asset price bubbles globally Hard to argue with it
Wanderer78 wrote: » the majority of the money supply comes from the private sector in the form of credit, credit bubbles create asset bubbles such as housing bubbles!
Danzy wrote: » Private sector, public spending, Central Banks. Everyone is gushing money out. It's more than a concern.
fliball123 wrote: » no in my example they have 72k combined salary or just below the median wage in the country. The median salary in Ireland in 2018 was just over 36k. I am not doing the sums again. Look up the median wage if you dont believe me. There is a severe supply problem there is no doubt about that but what I could show was that currently on myhome even with a severe supply problem there was over half the available properties for sale at under the 275k mark which is a price point that those on and above the median salary could afford.
Villa05 wrote: » Im not disputing the median salary, and credit to you for doing the calculations, My issue is the proportion of family household units that actually earn that income and of the data from my home, if you have it, can you share with us the proportion of properties for sale that have 3 bedrooms or higher. Im going with 3 beds because the avg FTB is now mid 30's an interesting account from a 2 teacher couple from Dublin who would be well above the median income We are in trouble if this combination of income earners are finding it very difficult to find a place to live close to their place of work
Wanderer78 wrote: » the average family home in the dublin region is now 10 times the average industrial wage, and growing, we re already in serious trouble!
Villa05 wrote: » intresting to step back and see how things worked out in the past October 2003Primetime Housing Debate Part 1Primetime Housing Debate Part 2 Imagine the pain that could have been spared if appropiate action was taken back then rather than pouring more fuel on the demand side as what happened back then. Can you spot the similarities of the arguments between late 2003 and now
combat14 wrote: more concerned by all the PUP and HAP payments at the moment, HAP in particular is only keeping rents extortionately high
combat14 wrote: 423 million spent on HAP alone in 2019
drogon. wrote: » Curious what is the program called ? Would be interested to watch it
drogon. wrote: Curious what is the program called ? Would be interested to watch it
schmittel wrote: » 15 years ago we thought 10 times average wage was the sign of a boom, now we seem have normalised it!
theballz wrote: » Property market is nuts these days. I was bidding on an apartment, that has gone for 50k over asking price. It’s definitely not worth it. People sitting on cash now and it’s driving prices back up. It’ll end in tears I feel
Marius34 wrote: » Looking at this thread it seems it happened the opposite. 15 years ago, average price were around or over 10 times the wage, nationally, and appears it was normal, people didn't see it as a boom. Today nationally it's less than 10 times the wage, and so many here see it as a boom.
PropQueries wrote: » It’s not “cash rich investors”. It’s the state. Back in July 2020, the housing minister said: “The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly,” said O’Brien.” Dublin City Council also said recently they’re in negotiations to buy or rent c. 4,000 properties in the city. Basically, if you’re one of the few people actually bidding for properties these days, your counter bidder is more than likely the state. Good luck with your bidding, but if you do win, you’re also more than likely paying c. 50% more than you would have paid if the state wasn’t also involved the bidding process and driving up the price IMO Link to his interview in TheJournal.ie here: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/
PropQueries wrote: » It’s not cash rich investors or other buyers. It’s the state. Back in July 2020, the housing minister said: “The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly,” said O’Brien.” Dublin City Council also said recently they’re in negotiations to buy or rent c. 4,000 properties in the city. Basically, if you’re one of the few people actually bidding for properties these days, your counter bidder is more than likely the state. Good luck with your bidding, but if you do win, you’re also more than likely paying c. 50% more than you would have paid if the state wasn’t also involved in the bidding process and driving up the price IMO Link to his interview in TheJournal.ie here: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/
Marius34 wrote: » To get to this logic you need to have a rough figure how many second hand properties state is buying a year. I'm not sure you have knowledge on how many second hand properties state has bought?
Timing belt wrote: » No doubt the DCC buying is having an impact but don't think it is to the extent that you are alluding to: For 2020 their were 15,254 properties sold in Dublin at market value per the CSO Row Labels Existing New Volume of Sales Household Buyer - First-Time Buyer Owner-Occupier 3017 1087 Household Buyer - Former Owner-Occupier 4584 935 Household Buyer - Non-Occupier 817 69 Non-Household Buyer 2633 2112 Grand Total 11051 4203 50% of new builds were bought by the state or institutional investors whilst only 24% of second hand homes were bought by non household buyers Would the situation have changed that much for the first 2 months of 2021?
PropQueries wrote: » No idea of how many they bought last year but I’m sure someone here can find the figures. But what I do know is that DCC said explicitly a few weeks ago that they’re currently in active negotiations to rent or buy c. 4,000 properties in the city. Dublin City is not that big (it’s not London), so 4,000 properties is a very very big proportion of the sales market. That’s also backed up by the Minister for Housing stating back in July that he’s looking at buying up all those empty AirBnB properties. Also, given that 4 in 10 new builds are being bought by either the funds or the state and another 3 are one-off builds, that leaves about 3 in 10 new build units available for the private market. I’ve seen very little media coverage over the past three years of people queuing to buy these new built homes which leads me to believe there’s very little private demand (at the asking prices anyway) and that the only thing holding up the market is the state renting or buying any property that comes on the market. Given the budget concerns, once the state inevitably pulls back from this current spending spree, it will be shown that there’s little to no private demand. Not at anywhere near current asking prices anyway IMO
PropQueries wrote: » Also, given that 4 in 10 new builds are being bought by either the funds or the state and another 3 are one-off builds, that leaves about 3 in 10 new build units available for the private market.
schmittel wrote: » You need to look beyond the numbers bought. The fact that the state is prepared to enter into long term leases with landlords and developers means is having a significant impact. This is both keeping rents and purchase prices high by removing supply from both the private sales and rental market. Despite what some on here believe rents and purchase prices are inextricably linked. The government is essentially underpinning the entire market, either by accident or design.
Timing belt wrote: » I am not arguing that government actions are not impacting the housing market that is obvious to every man and their dog. All I am saying is that it is not to the scale that Props is alluding to whereby every time someone is outbid it is due to the state being on the other end.....Way back last year I said that there would be increases in property prices because institutional investors would pile in and outbid anyone as they will not get a return like that from any other asset class. It is a risk free with a good yield as long as the state keeping the money flowing which they will have to unless they develop there own properties which doesn't look like will happen anytime soon. Instead we will follow a lot of US cities where similar has happened whereby institutional investors will pile in create demand and build more till there is a surplus of properties and rents start to fall by which time the institutional investors will have tried to flip the properties to another investor or retail buyer. There is even a research paper on the FED website that even talks about this dynamic.
Timing belt wrote: » I am not arguing that government actions are not impacting the housing market that is obvious to every man and their dog. All I am saying is that it is not to the scale that Props is alluding to whereby every time someone is outbid it is due to the state being on the other end...
Timing belt wrote: » Way back last year I said that there would be increases in property prices because institutional investors would pile in and outbid anyone as they will not get a return like that from any other asset class. It is a risk free with a good yield as long as the state keeping the money flowing which they will have to unless they develop there own properties which doesn't look like will happen anytime soon.
