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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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but1er

Deleted User wrote: »

Pity that - annoying alright when one doesn't back a winning selection,,,

this is great tough working from home nothing else to do. very entertaining to follow it.

[Deleted User]

And Karannelle finishes down the field in the 3.50; having been in contention for a lot of the race... Chelmsford to come, with the first selection going in just under an hour... Pretty good day for the thread so far

[Deleted User]

And Dors Toyboy comes 2nd in a thrilling finish 4.55; beaten only a neck - another place, and keeps thread ticking over nicely for the day

[Deleted User]

No joy in the 5.30 - Gracie's went for home challenging Little Floozie; I think, about 2 1/2fs out, but faded in the last furlong...

[Deleted User]

14/01

Running P & L + 14.3pts

Invested (not including Catterick, as that whole meeting was abandoned) 33pts. 3.20 Lime Drop NR @ 2pts. 31pts in play

Returns:

1.30 Hasankey (done e/w) places at 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts
1.30 Gustavian (done win @ 15/8) wins returning 1.8pts
3.30 Inspireus (done e/w @ 22/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 25p rule 4 returning 4.3pts
3.20 Lexi's Choice (done e/w) places at 100/1 at a fifth the odds *returning 21pts
4.55 Dors Toyboy (done e/w @ 8/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.6pts

*I was expecting a 10p rule 4 (trying to keep an eye on NRs at time/and after bet placed to gauge likely returns) but none applied.. Perhaps horse was NR before bet was put on. 21pts was my return in this instance anyway.

Total in play 31pts - returns 32.7pts

Profit for the day 1.7pts

Running invested total - 1,173 pts

Total P & L + 16pts

[Deleted User]

15/01

12.40 Newcastle Iconic Belle 33/1 e/w
1.10 Newcastle Splash Of Verve 5/1 e/w
5.00 Southwell Makambe 4/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

1.40 Newcastle Archippos 20/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Time for a few AP bets

Grand National Burrows Saint 18/1 e/w (1/5 1-5)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Santini 10/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
2000 Guineas Battleground 8/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
Derby High Definition 6/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)

The two flat races are in May and June, so I would say by then things should be okay travel wise for the Irish contingent.

GN in April, so that looks good too.

If Santini turns up, he's definitely good enough to be involved in the Gold Cup. Too good imo to be going to a National; at least yet.

Deleted User wrote: »

Another one for the AP list

Waiting Patiently in the Ryanair Cheltenham. 12/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3)

10yrs old now is Ruth Jefferson's stable star. Never ran before at Cheltenham; never mind the festival. This horse is surely running out of time to get a Cheltenham festival win - has been in the betting for various races at the Prestbury Park venue this last few years without showing up.

Off for just over a year when finishing a good second in the King George at Kempton last month. Horse does carry a health warning for punting purposes, as could well go to Ascot, or Aintree (assuming racing goes ahead) for one of the big races at either of those meets, which flank the Cheltenham festival.

Horse is also entered in Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but I hope the Ryanair is the likely target. 12s is good enough for me, and am happy to take a chance he'll go for O'Leary's race..

Reserve Tank 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3) Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham
Well, he has an entry, and was alright over the sticks a while back - hasn't ran in over a year though.. A big priced winner in this last year too,

[Deleted User]

Not great yesterday - was looking good going into Chelmsford, when I figured I was even or close to, at that point. Thought I had a few with proper chances, but alas only the one placer. That's the way it goes. I haven't even looked at tomorrow's jumps meets, as they could well be abandoned the way things are going.

That leaves Kempton, and Lingfield, and they don't look too appealing either. Have a speculative one I'm looking at at Kempton tomorrow, and I hope 12s can be got like the probable SP under the racecard; but it'll probably be something measly like 13/2

Will see what the prices are like tonight..

What a sh1t time to be a "racefan"

(racefan my ass many would say :pac: , if there was no punting involved I wouldn't be one, but as there is; regardless of my reasons for being so, I am indeed a "racefan") with all the fixtures being called off, and no bookies open to have a proper shout at the telly :mad: It's not the same at home, where one is more limited in how they can roar, or fk the jockey out of it... Unless ya live in the middle of nowhere, that is

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

15/01

12.40 Newcastle Iconic Belle 33/1 e/w
1.10 Newcastle Splash Of Verve 5/1 e/w
5.00 Southwell Makambe 4/1 e/w

No joy with the first two - Iconic Belle travelling well, and challenging round the home bend, but didn't really stay, and finished a well beaten 4th... Wasn't watching Splash Of Verve's race, but was well beaten coming 2nd last

[Deleted User]

4.10 Newcastle Primo's Comet 5/1 win

[Deleted User]

3.10n Majestic Tejaan win 9/1

Bit of value this outsider in this 4 runner event methinketh

[Deleted User]

6.00 Southwell Kit's Allanah 15/2 win

Hoping she'll get to the front, and stay there

A decent run at Chelmsford last time, when getting ran out of it at the end. Expecting better today, in that she'll be harder to peg back at this course... If all goes to plan that is; hence win only

[Deleted User]

15/01

Running P & L + 16pts

Invested 11pts

Returns: none

Total in play 11pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 11pts

Running invested total - 1,184 pts

Total P & L + 5pts

[Deleted User]

16/01

8.20 Kempton Sepahi 14/1 e/w

Has won over 7 before, and goes well at the course over six on the declared standard to slow going. Is a two time course winner (over 6fs) , and in the races she's won here, she does seem to be doing her best work late on. I think she's worth a bet here, with Probert up; who's won on her three times.

[Deleted User]

Warwick
3.00 Red Infantry 33/1 e/w
3.35 Flemcara 8/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

2.05 Market Rasen Rowland Ward 7/1 win

Not out of it this fella I think. A small field, and heavy going should suit. Looks like Oscars Leader will take them along at a good clip, so am expecting a true run race - may the best horse win, and let's hope it's the selection

[Deleted User]

3.50 Market Rasen Wye Aye 13/2 e/w

Only his third chase start, and just 6. He ran very well in the first two; winning one, and coming second in the other. Won one of those at the course over slightly shorter on good ground, although softish ground is fine too, as he came third here in a hurdles race on ground with a bit of give just over a year ago at today's trip. I'm hoping with the track, trip, and it being only his third chase start; that he'll not be inconvenienced by heavy. I expect him to give a good account today.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

12.55 MR Bring The Bacon 20/1 e/w

Came 6th lto in a decent time. Bitta value here for 1 of the 2 plcs

[Deleted User]

1.05 F'hse Atlantic Adventure 33/1 e/w... Give this one a squeak on her hurdles bow

[Deleted User]

Nothing so far

[Deleted User]

Rowland Ward a good second, but 2nd no good

Things will pick up I'm sure :P

[Deleted User]

One selection left = one lives in hope... Mon Sepahi in 3hrs toime :pac:

[Deleted User]

16/01

Running P & L + 5pts

Invested 13pts

Returns: none

Total in play 13pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 13pts

Running invested total - 1,197 pts

Total P & L - 8pts

[Deleted User]

17/01

3.35 Southwell Bellevarde 20/1 e/w

Drifting this Mare, but been a while since she ran here, and is a C & D winner. Has also won at around this time of the year, as that race was in January 2019. Mainly races over 5fs, and is back at 6 today. Recent runs been poor enough - a lot of pace on here today, and I believe that will suit, if she retains any of her ability..

[Deleted User]

12.50 Punchestown Asterion Forlonge win 9/4

[Deleted User]

^^^

It's either lump on the jolly Envoi (at 1/2 it would have no place in this thread :P ) , back the 2nd fav , or no bet.

Not much to go on really; but putting him up as a selection, as it's a "Clash of the Titans" sorta encounter. Both of them have had two chase runs, but the selection ASTERION FORLONGE is the only one to have won at the distance on heavy over the larger obstacles on heavy going, and that was in a fast time.

Envoi Allen's win was on soft, and in a slower time (albeit; over about 70yds further, but the race was clocked in a slowish time) , if one allows for the slight difference in distance (70yds doesn't equate to 10 secs) , though they were at two different courses, and the jolly today only beat what he had to.

The selection also has 11lbs less to carry.. I didn't even look at the other three contenders :pac: :pac: figuring it's just a 2-horse race...

Gluck

Looks like a hard day for finding winners.

[Deleted User]

2.05 Southwell Hotspur Harry 12/1 win

A bit of a punt the selection. Having his 3rd run in Blighty having come from Joey's the far side of the pond. Never ran before at Southwell, tried to make all at Wolves over the extended mile lto when finishing 5th. I think this 4yr old could potentially be "unexposed" , so at a nice price is worth a win bet from me.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12.50 Punchestown Asterion Forlonge win 9/4

Falls - at the first

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.05 Southwell Hotspur Harry 12/1 win

A bit of a punt the selection. Having his 3rd run in Blighty having come from Joey's the far side of the pond. Never ran before at Southwell, tried to make all at Wolves over the extended mile lto when finishing 5th. I think this 4yr old could potentially be "unexposed" , so at a nice price is worth a win bet from me.

Gluck all

Not today