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Sweden avoiding lockdown

frillyleaf

Does Sweden have the right approach to this and how is their healthcare system being able to manage Covid19 cases?

What are the differences between Sweden and Ireland and why can’t we continue similar to how Sweden is managing Covid19?

I’m not suggesting either is right or wrong. I would just like to know how Sweden can continue as normal and other countries can’t. Thanks ðŸ˜Š

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tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

Ah come on now.
Frank doesnt care whether he is right or wrong. In fact he probably knows hes wrong,

but he has taken a position in this thread and he will not give up on it til everyone in this thread hasd died of either Covid or old age

Unlikely either will happen. Charlie has probably posted far more than me.

Unlike a couple of posters who drop by for a smart ar*e comment now and again and are generally only interested in personal attacks eg Greyday, I try to engage properly with the subject.

Greyday was very vocal when Ireland was doing well and Sweden badly. He's gone quiet now Ireland is in trouble. You get that with people who don't understand covid waves.

My focus was never on what Ireland did, more with what Sweden was doing. A lot of countries who followed the lockdown approach are very likely to end up far worse than had they followed the Sweden approach. There is no reason why countries like Slovenia and now Portugal should end up the way they are going. They are either very small low population countries or else have geographical advantages being on the edge of Europe.

And harsh lockdown experiments in a number of countries such as Czechia look likely to cost thousands of lives needlessly.

Sweden meanwhile are going to end up somewhere between 30th and 40th in deaths per million, a remarkable achievement.

seamus

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Looking how things are now, I wouldn't actually be surprised if in the end, Irelands deaths per million are worse than Sweden's. Hopefully not.

I'd be incredibly surprised because that would require 2,500 covid deaths to be registered over the next 3-4 weeks; about 100/day every day until early February.

Our numbers have been bad, but not that bad.

JimmyVik

greyday wrote: »

Some posters are so wed to Sweden's let it rip strategy that they are still blind to its failure, they like to use the bad timing of other Countries lockdowns and opening up as evidence to Swedens success, Frank would not be surprised if Ireland passed Swedens shocking deaths per million figures while most others would know that this will not happen in a month of Sundays, Frank would like it to happen to prove he was correct as he has very little else to hang on to, obviously most Countries made mistakes opening up for Christmas and are now paying the price for that, we are already starting to see infection rates decline in Ireland which is of course too little too late for those that have already lost close family for the populist decision to open up at the start of December, we should be back to sustainable levels by April, it will be interesting at that time to see where Sweden are as their figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt for up to a month after infections and deaths have happened, when looking at their daily deaths it is not unusual for 40 or more deaths to be added for a day 2 to 3 weeks previous and Frank thinks that a great way to report, in fact their reporting is the best in the world according to Frank.

Ah come on now.
Frank doesnt care whether he is right or wrong. In fact he probably knows hes wrong,

but he has taken a position in this thread and he will not give up on it til everyone in this thread hasd died of either Covid or old age

FintanMcluskey

greyday wrote: »

Some posters are so wed to Sweden's let it rip strategy that they are still blind to its failure, they like to use the bad timing of other Countries lockdowns and opening up as evidence to Swedens success, Frank would not be surprised if Ireland passed Swedens shocking deaths per million figures while most others would know that this will not happen in a month of Sundays, Frank would like it to happen to prove he was correct as he has very little else to hang on to, obviously most Countries made mistakes opening up for Christmas and are now paying the price for that, we are already starting to see infection rates decline in Ireland which is of course too little too late for those that have already lost close family for the populist decision to open up at the start of December, we should be back to sustainable levels by April, it will be interesting at that time to see where Sweden are as their figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt for up to a month after infections and deaths have happened, when looking at their daily deaths it is not unusual for 40 or more deaths to be added for a day 2 to 3 weeks previous and Frank thinks that a great way to report, in fact their reporting is the best in the world according to Frank.

Seems like Frank lives in your head tbh

greyday

glasso wrote: »

Interesting how this Sweden thread is basically a proxy thread for some for "shouldn't have lockdowns in Ireland"

then when the paddies go mad at Christmas it's down to pent up demand

Irish people like to go mad every Christmas - not related to pent up demand

even tho it was tame by non-pandemic standards it still caused a lot of damage.

Some posters are so wed to Sweden's let it rip strategy that they are still blind to its failure, they like to use the bad timing of other Countries lockdowns and opening up as evidence to Swedens success, Frank would not be surprised if Ireland passed Swedens shocking deaths per million figures while most others would know that this will not happen in a month of Sundays, Frank would like it to happen to prove he was correct as he has very little else to hang on to, obviously most Countries made mistakes opening up for Christmas and are now paying the price for that, we are already starting to see infection rates decline in Ireland which is of course too little too late for those that have already lost close family for the populist decision to open up at the start of December, we should be back to sustainable levels by April, it will be interesting at that time to see where Sweden are as their figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt for up to a month after infections and deaths have happened, when looking at their daily deaths it is not unusual for 40 or more deaths to be added for a day 2 to 3 weeks previous and Frank thinks that a great way to report, in fact their reporting is the best in the world according to Frank.

JimmyVik

glasso wrote: »

Interesting how this Sweden thread is basically a proxy thread for some for "shouldn't have lockdowns in Ireland"

then when the paddies go mad at Christmas it's down to pent up demand

Irish people like to go mad every Christmas - not related to pent up demand

even tho it was tame by non-pandemic standards it still caused a lot of damage.

Not seeing that in the thread tbh

[Deleted User]

Interesting how this Sweden thread is basically a proxy thread for some for "shouldn't have lockdowns in Ireland"

then when the paddies go mad at Christmas it's down to pent up demand

Irish people like to go mad every Christmas - not related to pent up demand

even tho it was tame by non-pandemic standards it still caused a lot of damage.

Cerveza

Cheap wine from Lidl and Aldi have a lot to blame for it.

tobefrank321

Bit cynical wrote: »

I've never felt that we should follow the Swedish strategy exactly - it has to be tailored to each country individually, but they do seem to have got sustainability right. If you overdo restrictions then they become unsustainable and you end up with a spike in infections and the health system overwhelmed.

Ireland's trajectory now appears to be following that of a number of countries who crushed the curve but could not sustain it, eg Czechia, Slovenia, Hungary, Portugal, Poland, etc. You'd worry where its going in Ireland.

Lockdowns only work if there's a buy in from the public. Here people went along with restrictions for long periods but then gave up in December.

Looking how things are now, I wouldn't actually be surprised if in the end, Irelands deaths per million are worse than Sweden's. Hopefully not.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

But not as big as Ireland's. Ireland peaked at about double that of Sweden a few days ago. See graph below. You see there Ireland peaking at 132 per day per 100k averaged over the previous 7 days.

Thankfully numbers are falling now.

The reason for this, I believe, is that people were generally more cooped up in Ireland than in Sweden and felt the need to get out more in the couple of weeks they were allowed.

Ireland has had a large spike due to restrictions being dropped over Christmas, but with level 5 lockdown being reimposed I would expect number to drop further in the coming days.
Sweden on the other hand has had high case numbers for some time now, and they are staying stubbornly high. And as we know high case numbers lead to higher deaths.

Since September 1st. Ireland has had 129,969 confirmed cases. Sweden 427,632. Allowing for population size since 1st.September Sweden has had 65% more confirmed cases than Ireland.
Sweden really need to begin getting their case numbers down, and tbh I`m not convinced the restrictions/recommendations they have now are going to do that sufficiently.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden has had a huge spike in infections.
1st. September Sweden had 84,521 infections. Today that number is 512,203 infections and more hospitalised than at any time during this pandemic.

But not as big as Ireland's. Ireland peaked at about double that of Sweden a few days ago. See graph below. You see there Ireland peaking at 132 per day per 100k averaged over the previous 7 days.

Thankfully numbers are falling now.

The reason for this, I believe, is that people were generally more cooped up in Ireland than in Sweden and felt the need to get out more in the couple of weeks they were allowed.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I've never felt that we should follow the Swedish strategy exactly - it has to be tailored to each country individually, but they do seem to have got sustainability right. If you overdo restrictions then they become unsustainable and you end up with a spike in infections and the health system overwhelmed.

Sweden recalled parliament at Christmas to vote through new laws and put them to use right away attempting to get their infection numbers under control. That is in addition to all the other changes that were forced on them in October by the local authorities. I don`t know what sustainability policy you are talking about, but its not the sustainability policy of the first wave.

Sweden has had a huge spike in infections.
1st. September Sweden had 84,521 infections. Today that number is 512,203 infections and more hospitalised than at any time during this pandemic.

Bit cynical

glasso wrote: »

sorry don't buy that.

can only imagine the horrible situation of some families who met up in big groups at Christmas pointing the finger at who effectively put Mammy in hospital or worse.

pent-up-demand about having to go see the lads for bants in Peploe's won't cut it as an excuse

if you honestly think that if Ireland had been following the Swedish strategy that it wouldn't be way worse here you really are failing to account for the hugely different mpm*ratio in the two countries

*muppets per million

I've never felt that we should follow the Swedish strategy exactly - it has to be tailored to each country individually, but they do seem to have got sustainability right. If you overdo restrictions then they become unsustainable and you end up with a spike in infections and the health system overwhelmed.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You've misread what I said, but I'm happy to clarify. Sweden has less deaths in this wave but eventually Swedens deaths will be the same as with (Swedens) first wave.

Personally I would not look at Sweden`s first wave deaths as a great benchmark, but hopefully for this wave with these new restrictions and vaccines they can achieve that or better.
To do that though they are going to have to get their new case numbers seriously under control. There are more people hospitalised now than at any time in 2020 and they have had close to 850 deaths in the last 8 days.

[Deleted User]

Bit cynical wrote: »

True but this has to be seen as a consequence of a fairly heavy but unsustainable set of restrictions in the weeks leading up to it.

sorry don't buy that.

can only imagine the horrible situation of some families who met up in big groups at Christmas pointing the finger at who effectively put Mammy in hospital or worse.

pent-up-demand about having to go see the lads for bants in Peploe's won't cut it as an excuse

if you honestly think that if Ireland had been following the Swedish strategy that it wouldn't be way worse here you really are failing to account for the hugely different mpm*ratio in the two countries

*muppets per million

Bit cynical

glasso wrote: »

Paddies went way too far on pre-Christmas lunching and subsequent visiting all the relations over Christmas

Loads of people reporting in with 20 to 30 close contacts on tracing

True but this has to be seen as a consequence of a fairly heavy but unsustainable set of restrictions in the weeks leading up to it.

[Deleted User]

Mules wrote: »

Highest rate per capita, I thought?

see above

Ireland wanted to "save Christmas" but fcuked it up instead (Covid-wise)

Mules

glasso wrote: »

Paddies went too far on pre-Christmas lunching and subsequent visiting all the relations over Christmas

Ireland's lockdown ended well before Christmas

Ireland doesn't have the highest rate of Covid in the world

Highest rate per capita, I thought?

[Deleted User]

Mules wrote: »

Sweden has had no lockdown, we had one before Christmas, we now have another one but we are the ones with the highest rate of covid in the world

Paddies went way too far on pre-Christmas lunching and subsequent visiting all the relations over Christmas

Loads of people reporting in with 20 to 30 close contacts on tracing

Google mobility activity timeline shows highest pre-Christmas mobility in the EU pre Christmas on recreation activity - restaurants, shopping centres, cafes

Loads spread it there then met up with all sides of the family trees at Christmas / with friends to spread it - the more close contacts the more spreading

Ireland's lockdown ended well before Christmas

Ireland had the highest rate last week.

All to do with pre-Christmas and Christmas

won't be highest this week

Google Mobility

biko

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/facit-smittan-72-procent-varre-an-i-fhms-scenario/
The number of cases of covid-19 in Sweden last week was 72 percent higher
than the projections published by the Swedish Public Health Agency before Christmas.

The outcome was higher in 19 of 21 counties.

Mules

Sweden has had no lockdown, we had one before Christmas, we now have another one but we are the ones with the highest rate of covid in the world

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

2019 had a much lower death rate than the average.

Almost as much as 2020 was above it.

Perhaps it meant more citizens were vulnerable to Covid

that's also way out to start with.

2020 difference to average is 2.3 times (130% larger) the 19 difference to average on the 2010 to 19 average and

1.7 times the difference on the 2010 to 2020 average

[Deleted User]

j@utis wrote: »

Is there bar chart like this for Irish deaths?

Ireland only goes to 2018

https://www.statista.com/statistics/580193/death-rate-in-ireland/

most likely 'cos the Irish CSO are shyte at reporting compared to the Swedes

j@utis

Is there bar chart like this for Irish deaths?

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

2019 had a much lower death rate than the average.

Almost as much as 2020 was above it.

Perhaps it meant more citizens were vulnerable to Covid

speculative at best - the prior year 2018 had a higher number - so....

that's why averages are more useful

FintanMcluskey

glasso wrote: »

3970 deaths above the 2010 to 2020 year average in 2020

4367 deaths above the 2010 to 2019 average in 2020

As most of the population increase is due to incoming immigrants with population percentages in the death age groups (65+) much lower than the existing general population it's generous to not address that factor as it's actually improving the stats

2019 had a much lower death rate than the average.

Almost as much as 2020 was above it.

Perhaps it meant more citizens were vulnerable to Covid

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Interesting that 2019 had 4000 deaths less than 2018.

Subsequently 2020 had 5000 deaths more than 2019

3970 deaths above the 2010 to 2020 year average in 2020

4367 deaths above the 2010 to 2019 average in 2020

As most of the population increase is due to incoming immigrants with population percentages in the death age groups (65+) much lower than the existing general population it's generous to not address that factor as it's actually improving the stats

FintanMcluskey

Interesting that 2019 had 4000 deaths less than 2018.

Subsequently 2020 had 5000 deaths more than 2019

[Deleted User]

JimmyVik wrote: »

How can you have one person publishing the exact same report, within a couple of hours of each other, as the next person but with a few thousand less deaths?
What gives?

one is from Dec 18 based figures

one from Dec 30 based figures using updated figures from Swedish stats office

not sure if statista just updated today from recently released figures or if poster just had an old copy saved

either way the higher value is the official figure from Swedish CSO and won't be going back down - here's a current link

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

JimmyVik

How can you have one person publishing the exact same report, within a couple of hours of each other, as the next person but with a few thousand less deaths?
What gives?