FintanMcluskey wrote: » I wonder could we examine the crude death rate from the Scandinavian countries over the last 3-4 years. Perhaps bit cynical or Seweryn could graph those stats?
charlie14 wrote: » I cannot see the logic behind you believing Sweden and Denmark will have the same deaths eventually. Denmark has 57% of Sweden`s population and 1,623 deaths compared to Sweden`s 9,667. For both to eventually end up the same, Denmark would need to have 5,500 deaths at this point and both be on the same trajectory of new cases. Sweden`s new case 14 day average per 100,000 is 760, Denmark 437.
tobefrank321 wrote: » I don't think I ever said Sweden and Denmark would have the same deaths eventually. I said Denmark would not be spared this wave and they are having it much worse this time around than the first wave. Cases are coming down now so in a week or two deaths should be back under 20 a day on average. Sweden appear to have stabilized their new cases. I wouldn't be surprised if the decline is similar to our own, despite the different approaches. It will be interesting to compare cases in both countries this week.
charlie14 wrote: » You only have to go back 4 posts to see you actually did."Denmark has had more deaths in this wave than it`s first wave, Sweden has less so far - they had about 5,800 up to August 1st. but eventually it will be the same." Denmark also appear to have stabilised their new case, even more so than Sweden. Whatever about this week, for the two weeks up until yesterday Sweden`s new case 14 day average per 100,000 population is 760, Denmark`s 437. Denmark may have been hit hard since August 1st. but Sweden has been hit more than twice as hard. 1st. August Sweden`s deaths were 5,743. Denmark 615. From 1st. to 12th. January Sweden`s deaths are 3,924. Denmark`s 1,008. In that period Sweden`s deaths per 100,000 of population has been 39. Denmark`s 18.
JimmyVik wrote: » How can you have one person publishing the exact same report, within a couple of hours of each other, as the next person but with a few thousand less deaths? What gives?
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Interesting that 2019 had 4000 deaths less than 2018. Subsequently 2020 had 5000 deaths more than 2019
glasso wrote: » 3970 deaths above the 2010 to 2020 year average in 2020 4367 deaths above the 2010 to 2019 average in 2020 As most of the population increase is due to incoming immigrants with population percentages in the death age groups (65+) much lower than the existing general population it's generous to not address that factor as it's actually improving the stats
FintanMcluskey wrote: » 2019 had a much lower death rate than the average. Almost as much as 2020 was above it. Perhaps it meant more citizens were vulnerable to Covid
j@utis wrote: » Is there bar chart like this for Irish deaths?
FintanMcluskey wrote: » 2019 had a much lower death rate than the average.Almost as much as 2020 was above it. Perhaps it meant more citizens were vulnerable to Covid
Mules wrote: » Sweden has had no lockdown, we had one before Christmas, we now have another one but we are the ones with the highest rate of covid in the world
glasso wrote: » Paddies went too far on pre-Christmas lunching and subsequent visiting all the relations over Christmas Ireland's lockdown ended well before Christmas Ireland doesn't have the highest rate of Covid in the world
Mules wrote: » Highest rate per capita, I thought?
glasso wrote: » Paddies went way too far on pre-Christmas lunching and subsequent visiting all the relations over Christmas Loads of people reporting in with 20 to 30 close contacts on tracing
Bit cynical wrote: » True but this has to be seen as a consequence of a fairly heavy but unsustainable set of restrictions in the weeks leading up to it.
tobefrank321 wrote: » You've misread what I said, but I'm happy to clarify. Sweden has less deaths in this wave but eventually Swedens deaths will be the same as with (Swedens) first wave.
glasso wrote: » sorry don't buy that. can only imagine the horrible situation of some families who met up in big groups at Christmas pointing the finger at who effectively put Mammy in hospital or worse. pent-up-demand about having to go see the lads for bants in Peploe's won't cut it as an excuse if you honestly think that if Ireland had been following the Swedish strategy that it wouldn't be way worse here you really are failing to account for the hugely different mpm*ratio in the two countries *muppets per million
Bit cynical wrote: » I've never felt that we should follow the Swedish strategy exactly - it has to be tailored to each country individually, but they do seem to have got sustainability right. If you overdo restrictions then they become unsustainable and you end up with a spike in infections and the health system overwhelmed.
charlie14 wrote: » Sweden has had a huge spike in infections. 1st. September Sweden had 84,521 infections. Today that number is 512,203 infections and more hospitalised than at any time during this pandemic.
Bit cynical wrote: » But not as big as Ireland's. Ireland peaked at about double that of Sweden a few days ago. See graph below. You see there Ireland peaking at 132 per day per 100k averaged over the previous 7 days. Thankfully numbers are falling now. The reason for this, I believe, is that people were generally more cooped up in Ireland than in Sweden and felt the need to get out more in the couple of weeks they were allowed.
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