Sweden avoiding lockdown

Sweden southern region have found 11 cases of the British variant.

Also they are going against the general directions from the FHM and will vaccinate hospital staff asap instead of waiting and do them later.

https://www.sydsvenskan.se/2021-01-04/vg-regionen-vaccinera-vardpersonal-forst

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55523587
Covid: Sweden official defends Christmas trip to Canary Islands

A top Swedish official involved in the coronavirus response has defended a Christmas holiday in the Canary Islands in the face of heavy criticism.
Social Democrat Dan Eliasson is head of the civil contingencies agency, which earlier in December had texted all Swedes urging them to avoid travel.
He was photographed in Las Palmas airport on the island of Gran Canaria.

Mr Eliasson insisted the trip was necessary "for family reasons".

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-30/swedish-pm-criticized-for-shopping-tour-in-middle-of-covid-surge
Swedish PM Slammed for Shopping Tour Amid Latest Covid Surge

A number of the most senior members of Sweden’s government, including the prime minister, have been caught apparently ignoring their own Covid guidelines.

Social Democrat Prime Minister Stefan Lofven and Social Democrat Justice Minister Morgan Johansson were among those named in Swedish media this week for seeming to flout restrictions they insist must be followed if the country is to rein in the coronavirus.

Vieira82

biko wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-30/swedish-pm-criticized-for-shopping-tour-in-middle-of-covid-surge
Swedish PM Slammed for Shopping Tour Amid Latest Covid Surge

A number of the most senior members of Sweden’s government, including the prime minister, have been caught apparently ignoring their own Covid guidelines.

Social Democrat Prime Minister Stefan Lofven and Social Democrat Justice Minister Morgan Johansson were among those named in Swedish media this week for seeming to flout restrictions they insist must be followed if the country is to rein in the coronavirus.

Isn't this thread about avoiding the lockdown?

Pretty sure there's a thread where these last three posts fit better:

Current affairs in Sweden

They were avoiding the lockdown they themselves had imposed

sydthebeat

Vieira82 wrote: »

Isn't this thread about avoiding the lockdown?

arent those posts the exact epitome of "avoiding the lockdown" ??

:D:D:D:D

Sweden doesn’t lockdown for months, consequences - high cases in Winter

Ireland lockdown for months, consequences - high cases in Winter

You forgot the deaths.

biko wrote: »

You forgot the deaths.

Which ones?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

I was expecting 2020 to really stand out for a nation that didn’t implement many measures to suppress Covid

I brought up in June that Sweden's yearly rate is 90K
Then in August that more people had died in the January to June period, a higher number than any year since 1869.
In December that November was the deadliest November since the Spanish flu in Sweden.

Isn't it odd that the deadliest first 6 months in a hundred years, and the deadliest November in a hundred years, still results in an average total?

I'll wait for an official Swedish source to corroborate yours.

biko wrote: »

I brought up in June that Sweden's yearly rate is 90K
Then in August that more people had died in the January to June period, a higher number than any year since 1869.
In December that November was the deadliest November since the Spanish flu in Sweden.

Isn't it odd that the deadliest first 6 months in a hundred years, and the deadliest November in a hundred years, still results in an average total?

I'll wait for an official Swedish source to corroborate yours.

That figure is until the 18th Dec. There are still almost two week until the end of the year. (depending on how Statistica calculate the year, it may be a few days more).
Sweden`s average daily deaths in a normal year are 250 daily, so it would not surprise me to see the year end total reaching 95,000.
Either way it is not going to be lower than the previous 10 year average, or lower than either of the previous two years that one particular poster here was willing to put money on a short time ago.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Which ones?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

I was expecting 2020 to really stand out for a nation that didn’t implement many measures to suppress Covid

That is total deaths until 18th December Fintan.

I very much doubt nobody has died in Sweden between the 18t. December date and the end of the year.

charlie14 wrote: »

That is total deaths until 18th December Fintan.

I very much doubt nobody has died in Sweden between the 18t. December date and the end of the year.

Hardly the great loss of life many predicted on this thread

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Hardly the great loss of life many predicted on this thread

Unfortunately from the figures you posted, best case will most likely be over 4,000 more than the average year. Not far off what some were predicting here as far back as Sweden`s first wave.
I certainly will not be lower than last year or the previous year that some here who favoured the Swedish no lockdown strategy were predicting just a short time ago.
One of those that thanked your post was not long ago prepared to bet money Sweden`s deaths by year`s end would be lower than last year. If he did, then he has lost his money by the 18th December.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Hardly the great loss of life many predicted on this thread

Indeed, we know there are almost 9000 people dead from covid alone during 2020.
Do you think it was presumptuous to assume they would be on top of the average 90k?
I suppose a number of them could be people that can be assumed to have died during the year anyway. How many is anyone's guess.

ArthurDayne

biko wrote: »

Indeed, we know there are almost 9000 people dead from covid alone during 2020.
Do you think it was presumptuous to assume they would be on top of the average 90k?
I suppose a number of them could be people that can be assumed to have died during the year anyway. How many is anyone's guess.

Anyone's guess yes, but the range of the guesstimate probably is not that wide given that their deaths for 2020 probably aren't going to come in significantly higher than the averages over the last ten years.

Ultimately, if a man from the future had told you that Sweden would end 2020 around (or slightly above) its average annual deaths, you'd probably not have concluded that a much stricter approach on a more long term and sustained basis would be proportionate. The problem with the current media narrative is that there is a characteristic veering towards the extremes. Many of the sources scream that Sweden's policy is now an abject and indubitable failure -- based in no small part on merely comparing Covid deaths with its neighbours (and because even the King said it, which matters for some reason apparently), while other sources give Sweden way too much credit for a "successful" strategy that still failed badly in care homes.

Whether one disagrees with their strategy or not, the actual total deaths in Sweden for 2020 do not suggest the level of failure being described in the media and do not suggest that Sweden's approach was wildly disproportionate to the risk.

j@utis

charlie14 wrote: »

<...>
Either way it is not going to be lower than the previous 10 year average, or lower than either of the previous two years that one particular poster here was willing to put money on a short time ago.

Shouldn't that be adjusted for population growth?

ArthurDayne

j@utis wrote: »

Shouldn't that be adjusted for population growth?

[Sorry I've just realised that I thought you were replying to me!]

Well, yes, probably to some extent that should be borne in mind. But in 2018 just over 92,000 people died in Sweden and in 2019 that fell to less than 89,000.

At present, it looks like the final stats for 2020 will come in somewhere between 92,000 and 93,000. It may work out to be one of their deadliest years in recent memory, (hence why I would stop short of calling their policy a success) which will of course be leapt upon in the headlines, but it doesn't look like it's going to be by the kind of margins that would drive people to say that stricter and sustained lockdown measures were needed.

Edit: to add, there could also be an element of mortality displacement where Covid has accelerated elderly deaths that may have happened several months more down the line regardless. Though that may not be clear until (and if) the end of this year and early 2022 display lower than normal numbers of elderly deaths.

j@utis wrote: »

Shouldn't that be adjusted for population growth?

Unless you have a very strong belief in reincarnation I do not see why it should be.

If a government or a state authority through dereliction of their responsibilities was to blame for the death of, say 5,000 of their citizens during a particular year, do you believe an extra 5,000 births that year would absolve them of all blame ?

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

Unless you have a very strong belief in reincarnation I do not see why it should be.

If a government or a state authority through dereliction of their responsibilities was to blame for the death of, say 5,000 of their citizens during a particular year, do you believe an extra 5,000 births that year would absolve them of all blame ?

Immigration to Sweden is by far the biggest contributor to population growth in Sweden in the past decade and the population has grown about 10% in this time. Migrant communities have been very much over represented in Covid statistics. I'm not big on excess death being a great metric as to the success of any country's strategy but don't think using it to beat on Sweden is a very good approach in this case. The numbers are far lower than what many were anticipating (some with glee) here.

It’s time to start asking questions I feel.

The numbers are in

The data doesn’t lie

Why have Sweden performed so well despite not implementing sustained lockdowns?

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s time to start asking questions I feel.

The numbers are in

The data doesn’t lie

Why have Sweden performed so well despite not implementing sustained lockdowns?

well that's debatable, particularly when compared to the most relevant comparators i.e. the neighbouring Scandinavian countries (e.g. Sweden has over ten times the Covid deaths per million population that Norway has) who have had their army personnel at the borders to stop people going from there into and out of Sweden

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-cases-idUKKBN27Q1U5

Possible reasons why it was not worse than it was/is in Sweden

-> more people in Sweden live alone than other countries (most transmission still happens in the home)

-> related to this, less inter-generational living so less chance to pass Covid on to people more likely to die

-> Swedish culture is quite trusting of the government and follows the advice - the guidelines on social distancing and working from home, group sizes were largely followed. Followed more than would have been done in many other countries / cultures.

biko wrote: »

Indeed, we know there are almost 9000 people dead from covid alone during 2020.
Do you think it was presumptuous to assume they would be on top of the average 90k?.

Of course it was presumptions to assume the 9000k deaths were exclusively from Covid.

Look at the age groups where the deaths are occurring. Above life expectancy in a lot of deaths

90k+ deaths occur each year in Sweden.

volchitsa

I think the only way that the Swedish approach can be considered to be a success will be if their economy doesn't suffer the same damage that other countries have.
Does anyone know if that's the case?

volchitsa wrote: »

I think the only way that the Swedish approach can be considered to be a success will be if their economy doesn't suffer the same damage that other countries have.
Does anyone know if that's the case?

So is the only measurable metric who’s lockdown lasted the longest?

There is absolutely no consideration or understanding for the sunk costs related to lockdown

[Deleted User]

comment reply with no relevance at all to the previous comment

good stuff

Seweryn

j@utis wrote: »

Shouldn't that be adjusted for population growth?

It should. And here are the numbers:

136662345_1638514006335530_5695320210295091557_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&ccb=2&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=VRnCC4BwLHwAX8sQs6y&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=4d78a6ef7587b12982b2075d192813d4&oe=601D35BA

136662345_1638514006335530_5695320210295091557_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&ccb=2&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=VRnCC4BwLHwAX8sQs6y&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=4d78a6ef7587b12982b2075d192813d4&oe=601D35BA

It is an average year for Sweden in terms of deaths and you could find worse years in the past, i.e. 2015, 2016, 2017, etc. The 2019 brings the calculated five year average down a good bit though.