Supercell wrote: » I wouldn't be so sure about the schools being a big driver of this, yes there are clusters in some schools just like there are clusters in the community. I'm on the board of a primary school that has had not one single reported case yet. I would attribute that in no small part to the brilliant principal making sure that all the teachers and parents follow the guidelines, though obviously there is an element of luck too, long may it last. Even after the lock-downs ended she decided to keep all measures in place (mini pods of kids, no mixing etc etc) - less disruption for the kids and seems to be a sensible policy so far.
Dub81 wrote: » sure no problem and sit back and watch as more businesss close and more people lose their jobs and homes, and the ecomony weakens even further, and for what to get cases down only for them to go back up again, anyone who says lock downs work is very much deluded, they cause serious untold misery for so many people.
Tazz T wrote: » I'll take that bet and raise you everything I own. There isn't a chance we'll be over 1000 in January. In fact, I believe we'll be well under 100. The two weeks the schools are out will be kicking in then, easily offsetting any increased infection spread due to socialising over xmas. Remember we're still still at Level 3.5. Our schools stats here are hidden within in-house transmission. In the UK, number one spreader is secondary schools by a large margin. Green list in January if not by then.
Dub81 wrote: » Dont fool yourself it wasnt, lock downs simply do not work period, all lock downs do is put more people out of work and cause more anguish and misery and economic devastation , you know the saying the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results,this is exactly what it's like with lock downs, we need to keep society open and learn to live alongside the virus until people start getting vaccinated.
landofthetree wrote: » 970 today. My prediction of 1000 per day by 1st Jan will be wrong. More like 2,500 a day.
Tazz T wrote: » Your prediction is a guess. You haven't offered any explanation or evidence for this. My theory is based on three years immunology study at the university of east london, including a final year on epidemiology. I've been trained to read the graphs. The third wave started way sooner would normally be expected. Typically, you would expect to see a month of stability between each wave. I suspect a combination of people staying inside more and the schools remaining open have shortened this gap. But there is another more sinister explanation behind this massive acceleration over the last week. And the only way that can possibly be explained is by the unexpected introduction of a new more highly transmissible variant. No one could have predicted that. On the bright side, the fact that we're now in the third wave means this will be over soon, perhaps in early February. I know of no precedence of an airborne pandemics that have had more than three major waves, although there is still the chance that this could become a seasonal 'flu' albeit, much less lethal and vaccines will mean these will be blips rather than waves.
lalababa wrote: » 'no precedence' sure , but this pandemic has being treated differently and to a wider extent. It has not being left run it's natural course. So there easily could be more flare ups as time goes on.
Deleted User wrote: » Large backlog yesterday as they generally do on announcement day. Based on swabs, probably back to around 700 today. Cases are levelling off and festive season is ending.
B.A._Baracus wrote: » I don't see how cases are levelling off tho. New Cases: Dec 16th: 421 cases Dec 17th: 481 cases Dec 18th: 576 cases Dec 19th: 522 cases Dec 20th: 766 cases Dec 21st: 725 cases Dec 22nd: 961 cases. The stats would have to be levelling off, to be levelling off :pac:
Deleted User wrote: » My daughter's secondary school didn't have a single case either. A few weeks ago a girl in her class was crying because her mother, her father and two of her grandparents all had COVID. She was never tested. So I'd take that all with a very large grain of salt.
thegetawaycar wrote: » They aren't correct though, did they not say that 270 from yesterday were late notification, so yesterday would be 691 and possibly the other days a few higher each?
Tazz T wrote: » Your prediction is a guess. You haven't offered any explanation or evidence for this. My theory is based on three years immunology study at the university of east london, including a final year on epidemiology. I've been trained to read the graphs. The third wave started way sooner would normally be expected. Typically, you would expect to see a month of stability between each wave. I suspect a combination of people staying inside more and the schools remaining open have shortened this gap. But there is another more sinister explanation behind this massive acceleration over the last week. And the only way that can possibly be explained is by the unexpected introduction of a new more highly transmissible variant. *No one could have predicted that* On the bright side, the fact that we're now in the third wave means this will be over soon, perhaps in early February. I know of no precedence of an airborne pandemics that have had more than three major waves, although there is still the chance that this could become a seasonal 'flu' albeit, much less lethal and vaccines will mean these will be blips rather than waves.
99nsr125 wrote: » Everyone could have predicted it
Tazz T wrote: » ...but no one did
average_runner wrote: » If we don't do lockdown and the virus gets out of control, where do we draw the line? We opened things up and people took the piss, ie GAA clubs for example. Its all about attitude, if we have the correct attitude we can open up
Maria Muscular Quicksand wrote: » people can't leave the restauarnts alone.they will be there till closing tomorrow,even with the new strain possibly here I'm sure all restaurant staff wash their hands after bathroom and do not ever touch masks. yeah right..The minute mcdonalds open after the first time they were queueing up. Restaurants are not essential to anyone
NaFirinne wrote: » The one thing I don't get is the flu looks like it's completely dropped of the planet. Yet Covid is still growing....would this not indicate that yes indeed the lockdowns are working...just for a different virus. And if the lockdowns managed to stop the flu why aren't the effective for covid? I do feel for people loosing their businesses and Jobs though. Will they get a bail out from the governement like the banks did?
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