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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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mcmoustache

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Oh an expected trump county in Georgia went the other way in mail ballots. Could be a sign that a flip is on the way

Did somebody convince Republicans that they shouldn't vote by mail or something?

That might not have been such a good idea.

OneColdHand

mcmoustache wrote: »

Did somebody convince Republicans that they shouldn't vote by mail or something?

That might not have been such a good idea.

Trump did.

murpho999

Good short and calm speech by Biden. Presidential.

He knows what he's doing and starting with Covid is clever.

murpho999

mcmoustache wrote: »

Did somebody convince Republicans that they shouldn't vote by mail or something?

That might not have been such a good idea.

Trump of course but the result would have been the same but delivered in a different order.

1 vote is 1 vote.

Don't forget that Trump also battled to stop postal votes being counted early and that's why we have delays now and now Trump claims they're fraudulent.

It was all planned by Trump months ago though when he started saying that postal voting would be fradulent and "they're" trying to steal the election.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

murpho999 wrote: »

Trump of course but the result would have been the same but delivered in a different order.

1 vote is 1 vote.

Don't forget that Trump also battled to stop postal votes being counted early and that's why we have delays now and now Trump claims they're fraudulent.

It was all planned by Trump months ago though when he started saying that postal voting would be fradulent and "they're" trying to steal the election.

You're giving Trump too much credit there - he is no where near clever enough to have come up with that plan.

Water John

Well DeJoy was doing his work dismantling the postal system. It was a plan but a piss poor one.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324461436224053251

Wow, clearly the Trumps don't give a sh1t about the Republican party. This will be taken to heart by many of his followers.

prawnsambo

jasonb wrote: »

Trump's lead in PA goes under 100k, now 98k.

Death by a hundred thousand cuts.

josip

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Apparently 340,000 mail ballots remaining, and as Biden has been getting around 72% of those, he'll easily take the lead.

Using those numbers, he'd win by around 40,000 votes which is a clear win, but maybe not easy.
If that 72% were to drop to less than 65% however, PA would go to Trump based on c. 340,000 remaining and a 98,000 lead.

paul71

Water John wrote: »

Well DeJoy was doing his work dismantling the postal system. It was a plan but a piss poor one.

Dejoy could be in jail by as early as next week, contempt of court does not require a trial.

L1011

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324461436224053251

Wow, clearly the Trumps don't give a sh1t about the Republican party. This will be taken to heart by many of his followers.

If the Trumps want to split the Republicans for the 2024 elections, let them - FPTP will then give the Democrats a landslide re-election, the House and most or all of the 10 Republican Senate seats up.

Foxtrol

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

On a side note, those corona virus numbers are desperate and you'd imagine in about 2 weeks there will be a bit of a spike from these elections.

It is horrible but looking from a purely political perspective the timing might be the best situation for Biden.

Given the the escalating cases, especially in GOP state, by January when Biden takes over the GOP Governors will have either placed extra restrictions that they are currently against or their states will have enormous death rates. It should make it easier for Biden to step in, whereas if he took over today the anti-mask/anti-lockdown protests would be enormous.

Similarly, it wouldn't be surprising if they end up being able to make another deal on stimulus before Biden comes in, as the pockets of red states will be hurting having to deal with the number of cases.

prawnsambo

Something is afoot.

Quin_Dub

breezy1985 wrote: »

Christ could you imagine the witch hunt if 1 vote came back Trump

TO be fair , think this was the 1st time they've had 100% for one candidate in the 60 odd years they've been doing this midnight thing.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324461436224053251

Wow, clearly the Trumps don't give a sh1t about the Republican party. This will be taken to heart by many of his followers.

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324454049014521857

Don Jr with a bit more subtely but there looks to be an internal war brewing in the Republican party. It will be very interesting to hear what Trump says in the coming days.

Mr.Nice Guy

Arizona Secretary of State confirmed updated results due from Maricopa County expected at 2am our time.

[Deleted User]

L1011 wrote: »

If the Trumps want to split the Republicans for the 2024 elections, let them - FPTP will then give the Democrats a landslide re-election, the House and most or all of the 10 Republican Senate seats up.

Was thinking about that myself but I wouldn't be so sure. Turnout was ridiculously high this time around for both parties. So Trump has a huge number of supporters, more than last time around. Will the Democratic turnout stay as high next time?
On top of the we have a huge recession coming. People talking about Harris in 2024 make me laugh because in a 2-horse race in 2024 the Democrats are not going to get near 50%.
Depressed Dem turnout from a recession, huge Trump support and general protest votes because of the recession and I could easily see none of the 3 getting 270 in the electoral college.

Mr.Nice Guy

Trump's lead in Georgia now below 10k.

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

Was thinking about that myself but I wouldn't be so sure. Turnout was ridiculously high this time around for both parties. So Trump has a huge number of supporters, more than last time around. Will the Democratic turnout stay as high next time?
On top of the we have a huge recession coming. People talking about Harris in 2024 make me laugh because in a 2-horse race in 2024 the Democrats are not going to get near 50%.
Depressed Dem turnout from a recession, huge Trump support and general protest votes because of the recession and I could easily see none of the 3 getting 270 in the electoral college.

Remember only two states do anything other than winner takes all

A depressed Dem turnout is still going to get them the bulk or all of the ~210 they're basically guaranteed; plus there will be sufficient states where the Reps and Trumps split the opposition so that 35-40% for Dem is enough to take it.

derfderf

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

You're giving Trump too much credit there - he is no where near clever enough to have come up with that plan.

It's not that clever of a plan. It's very transparent.

Retr0gamer

Deleted User wrote: »

Was thinking about that myself but I wouldn't be so sure. Turnout was ridiculously high this time around for both parties. So Trump has a huge number of supporters, more than last time around. Will the Democratic turnout stay as high next time?
On top of the we have a huge recession coming. People talking about Harris in 2024 make me laugh because in a 2-horse race in 2024 the Democrats are not going to get near 50%.
Depressed Dem turnout from a recession, huge Trump support and general protest votes because of the recession and I could easily see none of the 3 getting 270 in the electoral college.

Donald Trump with the advantage of being the incumbent has managed to blow it during this election. The GOP will drop him like a hot snot. He won't be back. I expect he will probably leave the country to a country with no extradition to the states afterwards to avoid the up coming convictions. The GOP will be looking for someone else to bring them back into relevance.

murpho999

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

You're giving Trump too much credit there - he is no where near clever enough to have come up with that plan.

Trump may be a lot of things but hes not stupid.

He knew months ago that this election would be difficult.

Why do you think he claimed months ago that postal votes could be fraudulent?

Then as soon as things start slipping he has a legal strategy ready straight away.

everlast75

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324454049014521857

Don Jr with a bit more subtely but there looks to be an internal war brewing in the Republican party. It will be very interesting to hear what Trump says in the coming days.

Looks to me like self preservation is kickin in for the GOP.

Trump is only useful while president. They need to distance themselves from him while he self destructs

Christy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was thinking about that myself but I wouldn't be so sure. Turnout was ridiculously high this time around for both parties. So Trump has a huge number of supporters, more than last time around. Will the Democratic turnout stay as high next time?
On top of the we have a huge recession coming. People talking about Harris in 2024 make me laugh because in a 2-horse race in 2024 the Democrats are not going to get near 50%.
Depressed Dem turnout from a recession, huge Trump support and general protest votes because of the recession and I could easily see none of the 3 getting 270 in the electoral college.

One turnout drove the other I think. It is one of the most divided elections in memory. Allegations from both sides about dodgy dealings etc. Who wouldn't have an opinion one way or another at this point. We have to see what sort of candidate the GOP comes up with next time. A softer one might drive down the Dem turnout but also their turnout. Another Trump could drive up the Dems again.

Biden will also be the incumbent which helps and Republicans still need to find more votes. Leaning on the EC cos the can't get a majority will only nab them so many presidencies.

Water John

He has no legal strategy, just flailing. Every court they have approached they've lost.

[Deleted User]

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Donald Trump with the advantage of being the incumbent has managed to blow it during this election. The GOP will drop him like a hot snot. He won't be back. I expect he will probably leave the country to a country with no extradition to the states afterwards to avoid the up coming convictions. The GOP will be looking for someone else to bring them back into relevance.

If the next election is a 2-horse race the GOP will win whether Trump is the candidate or not. I mean seriously, if it hadn't been for Covid it's pretty clear Trump would've had this one in the bag. With the recession coming and the deficit ballooned before that happened the US is going to be a fiscal basket case and voters punish whoever's in power for that.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

murpho999 wrote: »

Trump may be a lot of things but hes not stupid.

He knew months ago that this election would be difficult.

Why do you think he claimed months ago that postal votes could be fraudulent?

Then as soon as things start slipping he has a legal strategy ready straight away.

Hmm not sure about the bit in bold, but what I said was meant as a bit of a joke, it doesn't really matter to me either way.

And I have been following this election for the past number of months and yes, the plan was obvious. No need for the patronising qs.

Foxtrol

murpho999 wrote: »

Trump may be a lot of things but hes not stupid.

He knew months ago that this election would be difficult.

Why do you think he claimed months ago that postal votes could be fraudulent?

Then as soon as things start slipping he has a legal strategy ready straight away.

I disagree. They gave away their plan to try to steal the election by refusing to accept the results and use the courts but never bothered to get a competent legal or PR team together and someone to head the battle, like Bush had in Florida. Reports that Kushner was calling people the night of the election. They are going to court but doing so with no evidence and being thrown out straight away in nearly every case.

Flagging their plan in advance also allowed the media time to plan how they'd react and they basically didn't repeat his speech on election night and aren't taking his supporters.

It might change but so far his attempts have been pathetic.

murpho999

Water John wrote: »

He has no legal strategy, just flailing. Every court they have approached they've lost.

He does have a strategy but it doesn't mean it's good or will work.

He has Rudy Guiliani heading up his legal team.

Mr.Nice Guy

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Donald Trump with the advantage of being the incumbent has managed to blow it during this election. The GOP will drop him like a hot snot. He won't be back. I expect he will probably leave the country to a country with no extradition to the states afterwards to avoid the up coming convictions. The GOP will be looking for someone else to bring them back into relevance.

I don't think they can afford to drop him. He has moulded the party in his image to such an extent that he will remain the most influential member even if he loses. Imagine for example if they went with someone that he doesn't like, and he spends the next few years tweeting that person is a disgrace, a loser etc. He could destroy their electoral prospects. He might even threaten to set up his own party and run against them. They will try to keep him on side I'm sure. Whether they can to his satisfaction is another matter.