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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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TomOnBoard

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Biden wins you'll not see a republican president for the next 16 years. Biden won't last 8 years though, he'll have to step down in 2 probably, if he lasts two.
What happens in that scenario

I disagree. A Biden presidency will be made impossible to function as it will try to deal with a post-Covid economy that is in tatters, while a Senate stays in Republican hands. Mc Connell will do to Biden EXACTLY what he did in Obama's second term. By the time 2024 comes around, Trumpism will not have gone away.

I'm feeling quite desperate about it TBH!

I do agree that Biden may not stay the full term and may hand the reins over to Harris at some point after the next mid-terms.

Panrich

10000maniacs wrote: »

Trump whinging about Wisconsin. Ordering a recount.

Meanwhile in 2016...

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/12/01/Trump-campaign-objects-to-recount-efforts-in-Michigan/8861480642641/

Itssoeasy

Panrich wrote: »

Meanwhile in 2016...

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/12/01/Trump-campaign-objects-to-recount-efforts-in-Michigan/8861480642641/

I’m shocked. I’m not really.

Brian?

10000maniacs wrote: »

Trump whinging about Wisconsin. Ordering a recount.

Ordering? He can't order them to do anything.

TomOnBoard

Manic Moran wrote: »

No, we're not. We're voting as the populations of the 50 States at the same time to elect the chief executive of the United States. Note that legally, most of us aren't voting for a person, we are voting for a group of electors.

The deference to the population discrepancy is that some states have more votes than others, though legally, all are separate and equal states.

This concept is fundamental to the structure of the US, not just for elections. It's how the country works on a daily basis.

This ^^^...

Imagine how we would feel in Ireland if our votes in an EU context were dictated solely by population? it's bad enough as it is, but we would never get a look in, if our perspectives were not shared by the large populations in the mainland.

Bad as the EC system may be, it is fundamental to the concept of a country being formed out of a set of States that are United, and not a single entity where California and New York together would dictate policy in every facet of life for the entire mid-West.

Brian?

Ilhan Omar re-elected in MN by 40 points. Delighted for her after the bile she's been subject to over the last 2 years.

astrofool

Brian? wrote: »

Ordering? He can't order them to do anything.

I do wonder if Bill Barr is hunkered down figuring out how he can enable this for Trump.

I also think they have to wait a few days before the recount can begin.

Itssoeasy

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I disagree. A Biden presidency will be made impossible to function as it will try to deal with a post-Covid economy that is in tatters, while a Senate stays in Republican hands. Mc Connell will do to Biden EXACTLY what he did in Obama's second term. By the time 2024 comes around, Trumpism will not have gone away.

I'm feeling quite desperate about it TBH!

I do agree that Biden may not stay the full term and may hand the reins over to Harris at some point after the next mid-terms.

I don’t agree that a Biden presidency will be impossible to function because of McConnell. McConnell has a relationship with Biden pre trump having served in the senate together. He gave some very warm remarks towards Biden when Biden became Vice President and also passed an amendment to a cancer bill to rename it to beau Biden. My point is that Biden may be able to work with the GOP in the senate given his history.

ancapailldorcha

AbusesToilets wrote: »

The system would be more representative if the EC votes were awarded proportionate to the votes in each state. That alone would give a more accurate reflection of voter sentiment, and would also encourage candidates to compete in states where they might not be able to win outright.

I can't dig it up but The Economist had an article on this. Apparently, for some states it's winner-takes-all and for others, electors are delegated in proportion to the distribution of the popular vote. That would make a lot more sense to me.

Carfacemandog

Brian? wrote: »

Ilhan Omar re-elected in MN by 40 points. Delighted for her after the bile she's been subject to over the last 2 years.

I thought Omar was so hated in MN that she was going to not only lose her seat, but cost Biden the state?

paleoperson

Brian? wrote: »

Ordering? He can't order them to do anything.

He can direct that a recount takes place in a close election. It is standard practice and they couldn't refuse.

gmisk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I can't dig it up but The Economist had an article on this. Apparently, for some states it's winner-takes-all and for others, electors are delegated in proportion to the distribution of the popular vote. That would make a lot more sense to me.

I think your right
I think 7ish EC votes went to people like Kasich or Paul in 2016.

Itssoeasy

paleoperson wrote: »

He can direct that a recount takes place in a close election. It is standard practice and they couldn't refuse.

He can request a recount. It can’t order or direct anything.

Brian?

paleoperson wrote: »

He can direct that a recount takes place in a close election. It is standard practice and they couldn't refuse.

No he can't, he has no authority over how states run their elections.

It's up to each secretary of state. Some states have a threshold for a recount. I think Florida is 1% margin. I think Wisonsin is 0.5% and so on.

The States run the elections, not the federal government. If they wanted to decide their EC votes by pie eating competition, there's nothing the Federal government can do about it.

JazzyJ

TomOnBoard wrote: »

This ^^^...

Imagine how we would feel in Ireland if our votes in an EU context were dictated solely by population? it's bad enough as it is, but we would never get a look in, if our perspectives were not shared by the large populations in the mainland.

Bad as the EC system may be, it is fundamental to the concept of a country being formed out of a set of States that are United, and not a single entity where California and New York together would dictate policy in every facet of life for the entire mid-West.

But the US senate gives each state an equal voice?

L1011

gmisk wrote: »

I think your right
I think 7ish EC votes went to people like Kasich or Paul in 2016.

None officially, all from faithless electors.

Supreme Court has reduced the risks of that happening by allowing sanctions for faithless electors.

Carfacemandog

paleoperson wrote: »

He can direct that a recount takes place in a close election. It is standard practice and they couldn't refuse.

The key criteria is being within 1% I believe, which it currently is as Biden leads by 0.7%. There is 5% left to be counted though which ifi am correct is almost entirely provision and mail in, whichnight put Biden above that threshold. I guess we'll have to see.

Headshot

Itssoeasy wrote: »

He can request a recount. It can’t order or direct anything.

With I think over 26 thousand votes difference, a request to recount wont cause that count to deviate that much

Typically you might get maybe 12 or so but not thousands

extra gravy

His fraud accusation is also a kick in the teeth to the thousands of civically minded decent Americans who offer up their time make sure the election actually happens and to count the votes. Imagine doing a 12+ hour shift counting votes and then you see your President accuse you of fraud. Desperate carry on from him but hopefully democracy and fairness will triumph in the end.

The Iron Giant

Biden lead in Michigan at 45000.

TomOnBoard

JazzyJ wrote: »

But the US senate gives each state an equal voice?

Yes. That's how it was set up in the bi-cameral model. The House was created as a body to represent the voting populations, and the Senate to represent the States..

paleoperson

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

As longs as votes don't go missing (as happens in Russia which Trump is trying to emulate)

Then lets recount, it means he will have to shut up about stopping counts elsewhere.

Funny you should mention Russia - I was just thinking today about how if this the US looking on from abroad they would simply pick the side they favoured and declare them the winner and the other side imposters. For example if Putin narrowly won and the other side was saying there was vote tampering oh god we'd never hear the end of it.

The mere allegations of vote tampering or otherwise unfair activities in voting are enough for people like you to go to town on Russia as having unfair elections. Meanwhile when Trump says it it's just all sour grapes, right?

Protests in the streets - if it was in Russia or another countries it'd be valiant angry protestors protesting against democracy gone wrong when the people chose someone else. With Trump it's more like angry racists trying to wreak havoc now that their leader has lost.

Eh? Eh? Where is the lie?

Carfacemandog

Headshot wrote: »

With I think over 26 thousand votes difference, a request to recount wont cause that count to deviate that much

Typically you might get maybe 12 or so but not thousands

For reference, Wisconsin was recounted in 2016 at the request of Jill Stein, the difference was 132 votes.

VinLieger

Headshot wrote: »

With I think over 26 thousand votes difference, a request to recount wont cause that count to deviate that much

Typically you might get maybe 12 or so but not thousands

Even the GOP ex governor of Wisconsin admits a recount wont fix that gap

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1324002777597677569

pixelburp

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I don’t agree that a Biden presidency will be impossible to function because of McConnell. McConnell has a relationship with Biden pre trump having served in the senate together. He gave some very warm remarks towards Biden when Biden became Vice President and also passed an amendment to a cancer bill to rename it to beau Biden. My point is that Biden may be able to work with the GOP in the senate given his history.

I can't say I"ve dug too deep into Biden's manifesto, but the language of "healing" and the overall tone of reconciliation in Biden's words - not to mention being famously a centrist - does make me wonder how much foreshadowing was applied towards the possibility the Senate would not turn blue. It must have been a factor in the thinking of the campaign; in which case the obvious next step might be identifying soft R republicans who could be turned on more palatable, centrist initiatives. Obviously, things like the expansion of the ACA are now going to be very difficult to achieve, while I"m not sure where many Republicans might sit in terms of electoral reform (or expansion of the SC etc).

The Iron Giant

WI recount will cost $3m. Oof.

vafankillar

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

WI recount will cost $3m. Oof.

not exactly oof in terms of a us presidential election

extra gravy

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

WI recount will cost $3m. Oof.

It's quite American that you can buy a recount rather than it being based on the public interest.

paul71

Brian? wrote: »

Ordering? He can't order them to do anything.

I think he can if there is less than 1% difference.

I am not certain which states do that but some have an automatic recount if the difference is less than 1%, others have a recount if the difference is less than 1% and a recount is requested by a candidate.

I suspect the same is going to happen in Georgia no matter which way the first count goes.

nc6000

Carfacemandog wrote: »

For reference, Wisconsin was recounted in 2016 at the request of Jill Stein, the difference was 132 votes.

What was Jill Stein hoping to gain from a recount?