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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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[Deleted User]

Very, very, very early results from Indiana and Trump is slightly lagging where he was last time.

TomOnBoard

bilbot79 wrote: »

How quickly will we see anything interesting? I have an early flight tomorrow and never manage to sleep. Is it worth breaking out the Haagen Dazs and sticking on the telly?

I suggest you go for a nap and start watching around 2

Call me Al

Gintonious wrote: »

But the wave in that gif is blue!

Precisely!

Harry Palmr

If Ameri-Cubans could vote for a free market fascist they would. No one is right wing/anti-state enough for them!

Nollog

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Marco is not a clever individual.

If he made it look red what would you have said, be honest now.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

It's also important to note that some Democrats will vote for Trump and some Republicans for Biden. The latter looking more common.

[Deleted User]

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Mdixon55/status/1323754286778646528?s=19

NPAs crucial here. I have read they would lean more towards Biden than Trump

Another thing to consider is crossover votes basically count twice, so it would take 100k Rs (net) to switch to D to close the 200k gap.

Gbear

StringerBell wrote: »

A more heartwarming exit poll less white voter share = more minorities voting and more female then make seemingly.

That should be good for Biden.

Probably a bit skewed if the non-whites are Cubans, who are far more likely to vote Republican than most other non-white communities.

everlast75

Kalyke wrote: »

NPA? Non party affiliate?

Indeed.

The theory being that Trump supporters are all in Republicans. The non party people if voting may lean more towards Biden

For Forks Sake

Gintonious wrote: »

But the wave in that gif is blue!

Marco is not a clever individual.

Panrich

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Mdixon55/status/1323754286778646528?s=19

NPAs crucial here. I have read they would lean more towards Biden than Trump

If you work it out, they just need 54% of those given that all the other votes go to the respective parties (not going to happen, I know).

StringerBell

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Mdixon55/status/1323754286778646528?s=19

NPAs crucial here. I have read they would lean more towards Biden than Trump

Is there anywhere you can find good data on how many registered Republicans trump has alienated in places like Florida?

I know that looks good or bad depending on who you are supporting but simple voter registration doesn't really tell you a lot.

Florida is gonna be tight obviously and whether trump has alienated a good % of the registered Republicans could be the deciding factor. The Biden campaign isn't optimistic about Florida though so I guess that tells its own story.

Frank Bullitt

Call me Al wrote: »

Well Marco Rubio is predicting a wave alright...

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1323747297491116035?s=20

But the wave in that gif is blue!

For Forks Sake

StringerBell wrote: »

A more heartwarming exit poll less white voter share = more minorities voting and more female then make seemingly.

That should be good for Biden.

Higher % of college educated voters as well

Kalyke

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Mdixon55/status/1323754286778646528?s=19

NPAs crucial here. I have read they would lean more towards Biden than Trump

NPA? Non party affiliate?

BQQ

CNN Exit poll has big drop in Vote share for Whites

Bad news for Trump!

StringerBell

A more heartwarming exit poll

less white voter share = more minorities voting and more female then make seemingly.

That should be good for Biden.

everlast75

https://twitter.com/Mdixon55/status/1323754286778646528?s=19

NPAs crucial here. I have read they would lean more towards Biden than Trump

kowloon

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Guy on CNN, People will vote for Kermit the Frog over Donald Trump.

Their tears will be extra sour this time round I feel.

We'll find out what Kermit thinks when he posts in the thread next.

StringerBell

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

just poured my first whiskey, Jake "The Bulldog" Tapper is on the big screen, just ate half a peanut butter sandwich....folks... I'm all in...roll on Florida !!! I assume thats when we will actually know who will win ?

No, well unless Biden wins then the election is over but if trump holds on as he likely will there is still plenty of track to go in this election.

It's more PA than Florida this time around that will be crucial.

Call me Al

Well Marco Rubio is predicting a wave alright... and it appears to be blue...

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1323747297491116035?s=20

EltonJohn69

just poured my first whiskey, Jake "The Bulldog" Tapper is on the big screen, just ate half a peanut butter sandwich....folks... I'm all in...roll on Florida !!! I assume thats when we will actually know who will win ?

[Deleted User]

Fox News should be live soon.

The results from Maine and New Hampshire are the first big signs to look out for. For the polls to be accurate Biden need to be leading by 3-4 points early on.

Christy42

Panrich wrote: »

It was reported by the FL reporter on CNN earlier

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/524228-federal-judge-orders-usps-to-rush-delivery-of-mail-ballots-as

I mean what the hell, like really. It seems like they are trying to be bad at democracy. Like how are they so bad at it? For a battleground state that is flat out inexcusable.

Thanks for the link.

StringerBell

Looking forward to seeing how trump's vote share is holding up in certain parts of Kentucky, obviously he wins the state but he outperformed significantly in 2016 and I want to see how he holds up against his own performance this time round

Be another hour before we get anything much use in terms of early polling post closing but should have something to go off in Kentucky soon.

Sierra Oscar

rosser44 wrote: »

High voter turnout is good for the Dems

It's hard not to read into it other than people turning out to punish Trump.

Can there really be that much of a 'shy Trumpian' factor at play? It's hard to see it.

tanko

When will there be some reliable info as to how this is going to go?

Outlaw Pete

bilbot79 wrote: »

How quickly will we see anything interesting?

1am GMT there's usually some rumblings.

CNN misscalled Gore as winning Florida around that time in 2000.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

bilbot79 wrote: »

How quickly will we see anything interesting? I have an early flight tomorrow and never manage to sleep. Is it worth breaking out the Haagen Dazs and sticking on the telly?

Majority of battleground states are East coast so we should have a decent idea of who's going to win in the next few hours, however they need to taken with a bit of caution given all the early voting.

A far more important qs for the USA is who is going to win the Senate. At the risk of jumping the gun here, Biden looks a cert. Barring a massive, massive upset he will be sitting in the White House come February 2021.
However, whether or not he's going to be able to enact any real change over the next 4 years will depend on control of the Senate, and Georgia is an absolutely key state in that regard, given their 2 seats up for grabs. The democrats are tipped to take control of the Senate, but it is still a tight race and too early to call.

rosser44

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Highest turnout in a century it seems.

High voter turnout is good for the Dems