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Share Picks 2020

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roosterman71

RIGOLO wrote: »

NYCT have best in class PCR testing, top quality product.

On that PCR part. All well and good having the best, but the PCR tests are coming under serious pressure for COVID. There's a multitude of faster tests on the horizon (Antigen tests being one I heard about) which are 3 to 4 times cheaper than PCR testing. Can be rolled out for home use without hoards of people administering tests and then labs for the test runs.

Add to this that as vaccines become available, the rollout to everyone will take years. In the interim, these quick tests will drive the pandemic management until such time everyone gets the vaccine (assuming the vaccines are the solution to this virus)

PHG

See a lot of people averaging down here. I never do it so do not understand it.

Do people on here do it because of FOMO?
You bought originally for it to go up so why not set a SL, if its hit then bail and move onto next stock, does it not lead to an emotional attachment? You are increasing portfolio risk, profit returns and time decay to profit.
Why waste time waiting for a stock to make a profit if it keeps going down? So the opportunity cost here.
Surely there is a point where you exit at certain losses?
I hope everyone talking about BE are including transaction costs in and out.

DutchYurt

weemcd wrote: »

I could certainly see some taking their profits by close of play today, and the price coming back down to something like that, yes. It's been a rollercoaster share for the last month or so.

I think we could see anything up to 150p today before a pullback. **all purely speculative from me btw dyodd **

After my moment yesterday I've taken profit today, will buy back in once it comes day but see big things ahead. Just waiting for fastly to take off again.

Thanks RIGOLO for the pep talk, DutchYurt remains, DutchKaren has passed

RIGOLO

Cpfm wrote: »

Any view on how much more NCYT has to go? I got in based on your tip, ty, but thinking of adding more...not sure..

In no particular order heres what I think , open to correction on what I say ...
I had to wait months for the stock price to reflect if testing would be needed for a a second wave of Covid. Now we are in the wave 2 and testing is forefront across the world.
A few dodgy diagnostics companies with poor quality products who gained early have been exposed.
NYCT have best in class PCR testing, top quality product.
Contracts and backhanders were being done in The Commons but now contracts are going to the best companies with more scrutiny.
Recent order with the NHS is 400M first shipment with an option on 300M more if they dont screw it up, which I dont think they will.
Market cap was barely reflective of contracts won, thats changing but it still doesnt reflect future earnings.
NCYT bought out one of their suppliers, brought their tech in house, so why do that if they dont think they have a future.
FRance holds 70% of the float but we havent had any major French news. This week their diag panel got added to a French health list week but no news on a major french contract. With French price action maybe someone knows something.
So all the gains are really based on UK and some minor contracts in some other countries.
They have appointed a new broker , I expect to bring in the IIs
Speaking of which some talk that a few funds have bought in last week.
They have not stood still, they expanded into a Winterplex dual covid and influenza test, 2 results in one test.
The CEO is relatively new, seems to have his head on and wants to move to the big table, guide this company off AIM and bring it ot the FTSE.
If not they are a potential buyout.
Ive been following them closely and I have a few goto guys whos opinion I respect, they helped convince me to hold during big dips in the summer, and all those are still positive that there is room to grow.
Follw the 'Trust but Verify' principle.. as in its okay to trust someones opinion but even better if you go and verify the numbers youself.
Also they have had alot of vacancies , for sales, lab technicians and some computer app developers.
I may or may not buy some more, greed is not a virtue I aspire too.
And NCYT were pretty regular with RNS and sales updates , they have been a bit quite , theres news due in the next 2 weeks. Probably positive but will it be positive enough for the stock price. Their investor relations pr dept has been pretty on the ball for 10 months
I cant see it retracing considerably in the coming weeks. IF we could get some news soon on a new contract just to lock in the foundation for these 2 weeks gains we would all rest easier.
They still have to manage the company thru expansion, reagents are in short supply, they are in a compeitive landscape where they are up against big pharma, but so far they have managed to expand Their quality product has gotten them this far, now its up to quality management to get them the next rung up.
Thats more or less a 30,000 foot view of where they sit .
But even with all those positives, things can flip on a dime, bad news, covid cure, a missed covid test , some bad press who knows .

But if COVID is still here mid-late 2021 and we are into an endemic situation where we never get rid of it then NCYT are here for good , in which case we could be looking at 30 or 40 euro IF they continue to execute on contracts won and delive some new contracts and innovative product.

Short term we are safe bar a few tree shakes and some dips, we wont go into single digits. medium term the next month looks positive as Covid cases still spread, longer term I still see potential to multi-bag this.. but we need news , RNS, pr.

Bob Harris

weemcd wrote: »

I could certainly see some taking their profits by close of play today, and the price coming back down to something like that, yes. It's been a rollercoaster share for the last month or so.

I think we could see anything up to 150p today before a pullback. **all purely speculative from me btw dyodd **

Funnily enough Ive set a 150p sell order, if it makes it then well and good, if it doesnt and retraces then thats fine too, plenty more to come with a little patience.

Pelezico

sirboby wrote: »

Was about to ask peoples oppinions, Is now a good time to take some money off the table with 4D?

NASDAQ listing.....may be exciting times ahead.

weemcd

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, I'd not be surprised to see a retrace to 1.10 ish over the coming week or so ......... today's rise is steep.

I could certainly see some taking their profits by close of play today, and the price coming back down to something like that, yes. It's been a rollercoaster share for the last month or so.

I think we could see anything up to 150p today before a pullback. **all purely speculative from me btw dyodd **

[Deleted User]

sirboby wrote: »

Was about to ask peoples oppinions, Is now a good time to take some money off the table with 4D?

Who knows............. it depends on what your buy in logic was. Longterm it's sure to rise further IMO, the funding issue is no longer an unknown but any share that rises quickly usually has some profit taking etc so some falls shouldn't surprise.

bob mcbob

ADZAM wrote: »

I've been watching ISE stocks, mainly Dalata - I was hoping with the level 5, they would break below €2 and I'd hold in anticipation of a recovery, they bounced around €2.25 this week and have popped a bit - anyone have any thoughts on Dalata Group? How is Ryanair not <€10? Would you put money in either of these in this climate? Buy when there's blood in the streets?

Phew, good to offload. Appreciate any advice, comments, observations.

For me I view Dalata's main customers as international business travel and international tourism.

International business travel is not coming back anytime soon. It may possibly never come back to how it was before.

International tourism well that it is 6 months at least before there will be any return of meaningful tourism.

I think there will be a lot more blood in the water in the next 6 months.

sirboby

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, I'd not be surprised to see a retrace to 1.10 ish over the coming week or so ......... today's rise is steep.

Was about to ask peoples oppinions, Is now a good time to take some money off the table with 4D?

Bob Harris

FWIW it looks like we'll be transitioning to Teams where I am as well.

Treppen

Atlas_IRL wrote: »

Agreed with Teams, it has come on a lot and even the dev teams in my job have started to use it over slack. It's just getting better and better. The more app integrations it gets it will be more beneficial and they can always just do what FB do, if you have competition just copy there best features so maybe they will bring the best features of slack and competitors and take a massive userbase.

Unfortunately I agree with view of Teams replacing zoom (although I think zoom is a lot less fuss and more stable). Schools were all Zooming at the start even though they'd be either a Google or MS Office platform. Now they're looking to streamline and integrate Teams back into their already existing apps like One Note , Outlook etc. In my spouse's multi national business they're abandoning Skype and integrating Teams as well.
Really I can't see Zoom lasting, unless it's bought out by Google ... Zoogle :pac:

[Deleted User]

Rothmans wrote: »

4d coming back with a vengeance. ..................

Indeed, I'd not be surprised to see a retrace to 1.10 ish over the coming week or so ......... today's rise is steep.

Rothmans

4d coming back with a vengeance. I averaged BEP down from 160 to 140 when the price dropped. Kicking myself I didn't average down further. But then again, I was fearful of throwing good money after bad.

[Deleted User]

littlevillage wrote: »

...............

Dalata might have further to fall, yes possibly to sub €2...... It must be hurting really bad?
...................

They seem confident of getting through this.

They recently leased hotels in the UK at "post covid price" deals and also are endeavouring to get into London which they were previously priced out of (they are bargain hunters at the best of times).

Longterm you'd fancy them to survive and they can well afford to keep the lights on and invest further with room rates down 40%+ and occupancy down to 40% ish.

I'd see the current price as a good entry point tbh.

crushproof

ADZAM wrote: »

Slack @$26 average

My biggest regret this year is missing out on Zoom, fannying around thinking it was overvalued at $100, $200, $300 and so on. Heartbreaking.

Some good insights, in the same boat regarding Zoom, dithered for ages not understanding what the fuss was all about and never jumped in.
But I'm still perplexed at the valuation. In my line of work there's been a huge shift to Teams this year, Slack has been sidelined and Zoom doesn't make an appearance anywhere. The only time I've used Zoom was early on in the lockdown for those family video chats which no one seems to do anymore. So I've

Rothmans

I bought TILS last week at 180p. Thought it had a good bit of promise to roll up to £2+ by the end of the month as it is to have a 1 for 1 demerger at the end of the month. However, it seems to be struggling to break above the 180 mark. The twiterati seem to be putting this down to US MMs keeping the price suppressed and it's only a matter if time before it shoots up, but whether that's true could be anyone's guess .

It has a promising pipeline, including a potential covid treatment similar to the one which was used on Trump, and that Pipeline the main reason I'm in it.

(I referred to its US ticket TLSA last week, but decided to stay away from the Nasdaq on this one.)

Atlas_IRL

Agreed with Teams, it has come on a lot and even the dev teams in my job have started to use it over slack. It's just getting better and better. The more app integrations it gets it will be more beneficial and they can always just do what FB do, if you have competition just copy there best features so maybe they will bring the best features of slack and competitors and take a massive userbase.

littlevillage

ADZAM wrote: »

Long time lurker, I really enjoy the content, I created this account to comment on this board and share my portfolio and some thoughts.

Lemonade @$55 average
I bought this as I was intrigued by the Insurance disrupter taking on legacy insurance services with a recurring business model, sexy UI and a tech first approach. I did not sell when I should of when it hit the highs of ~$90 shortly after IPO (mistake). They are Certified B Corporation which "are a new kind of business that balances purpose and profit" (this could be a pro if it's good marketing for socially conscious millennials) but it does worry me as a shareholder that the company needs to balance purpose with Profit - what b*llox. The expansion plans are exciting, you can imagine market cap growing on entry to new Geos, new insurance services (Car, Health, other). I feel I know this stock well having watched it since IPO, I will average down $40-$50 range and NEXT TIME, set stop loss in the $70+ range

Slack @$26 average
I bought the day of the IPO for $42 and have been averaging down since. It haunts me that I choose Slack over Zoom and watched Zoom moon and Slack went down or sideways. I kept saying Zoom was overvalued at $100, $200, $300, $400 (a lot of FOMO here). Why I stick with Slack is, I feel I know this stock now watching the price action, CEO on CNBC etc and it *could* work out in the end as Slack is very sticky once its rolled out to employees and the pure hope that Slack could get acquired by a legacy tech company (Oracle, IBM) for $40-$50 if not get there themselves in 1-2 years with the headwind of Covid-19.

J&J @$144 average
They are working on a vaccine, they may not be the first to market but there will be UNLIMITED DEMAND for this vaccine - J&J will get their share of the market, and with the hand sanitizer recalls in schools today, maybe not being first could be a good thing. I will hold J&J as it's a pretty stable stock and dividend payout in December. Pharma plays are very speculative, I've been burned many times. Play safe with them!

Asana @$24 average
Collaboration software, recent IPO, I think it could be a 2x in 1-2 years, I will average down if it goes <$20

My biggest regret this year is missing out on Zoom, fannying around thinking it was overvalued at $100, $200, $300 and so on. Heartbreaking.

I've been watching ISE stocks, mainly Dalata - I was hoping with the level 5, they would break below €2 and I'd hold in anticipation of a recovery, they bounced around €2.25 this week and have popped a bit - anyone have any thoughts on Dalata Group? How is Ryanair not <€10? Would you put money in either of these in this climate? Buy when there's blood in the streets?

Phew, good to offload. Appreciate any advice, comments, observations.

You are very welcome ADZAM....and a great first post.

Will only comment on Dalata and Ryanair. I think you are spot on. Both good recovery plays

Dalata might have further to fall, yes possibly to sub €2...... It must be hurting really bad?
Ryanair SP has been incredibly resilient considering the perfect storm of Covid and new plane purchases and bad fuel hedging.... currently €13 which seems expensive (if you look at the beating their competitors are taking). Absolutely needs to be under €10

Two others that I like on the ISEQ,

YEW Groove REIT

Cairn homes

Both have had their SP's nicely trimmed by the pandemic....but their earnings are basically uneffected.....also at current prices both are giving out fat dividends

Shedite27

ADZAM wrote: »

Long time lurker, I really enjoy the content, I created this account to comment on this board and share my portfolio and some thoughts.

Lemonade @$55 average
I bought this as I was intrigued by the Insurance disrupter taking on legacy insurance services with a recurring business model, sexy UI and a tech first approach. I did not sell when I should of when it hit the highs of ~$90 shortly after IPO (mistake). They are Certified B Corporation which "are a new kind of business that balances purpose and profit" (this could be a pro if it's good marketing for socially conscious millennials) but it does worry me as a shareholder that the company needs to balance purpose with Profit - what b*llox. The expansion plans are exciting, you can imagine market cap growing on entry to new Geos, new insurance services (Car, Health, other). I feel I know this stock well having watched it since IPO, I will average down $40-$50 range and NEXT TIME, set stop loss in the $70+ range

Slack @$26 average
I bought the day of the IPO for $42 and have been averaging down since. It haunts me that I choose Slack over Zoom and watched Zoom moon and Slack went down or sideways. I kept saying Zoom was overvalued at $100, $200, $300, $400 (a lot of FOMO here). Why I stick with Slack is, I feel I know this stock now watching the price action, CEO on CNBC etc and it *could* work out in the end as Slack is very sticky once its rolled out to employees and the pure hope that Slack could get acquired by a legacy tech company (Oracle, IBM) for $40-$50 if not get there themselves in 1-2 years with the headwind of Covid-19.

J&J @$144 average
They are working on a vaccine, they may not be the first to market but there will be UNLIMITED DEMAND for this vaccine - J&J will get their share of the market, and with the hand sanitizer recalls in schools today, maybe not being first could be a good thing. I will hold J&J as it's a pretty stable stock and dividend payout in December. Pharma plays are very speculative, I've been burned many times. Play safe with them!

Asana @$24 average
Collaboration software, recent IPO, I think it could be a 2x in 1-2 years, I will average down if it goes <$20

My biggest regret this year is missing out on Zoom, fannying around thinking it was overvalued at $100, $200, $300 and so on. Heartbreaking.

I've been watching ISE stocks, mainly Dalata - I was hoping with the level 5, they would break below €2 and I'd hold in anticipation of a recovery, they bounced around €2.25 this week and have popped a bit - anyone have any thoughts on Dalata Group? How is Ryanair not <€10? Would you put money in either of these in this climate? Buy when there's blood in the streets?

Phew, good to offload. Appreciate any advice, comments, observations.

I own Lemonade for the reasons you mention, I agree with Asana and will be buying that soon. I fear for Slack really, we have it at work, but we also have Teams (through the default Microsoft licence). Teams is completely dominating where I work, and sounds like it is in a lot of other big organisations too. My worry for Slack is how much better it has to be than Teams (to beat out everyone who has Teams for free), and what it can do to be that much better. I can't see it right now.

JNJ is a great stock as an anchor, but I don't buy the "they'll develop a vaccine and be rich" argument. I can't see how anyone will be able to say "look at all the money we made off Covid". But they do lots of other great stuff that makes it a great stock

ADZAM

Long time lurker, I really enjoy the content, I created this account to comment on this board and share my portfolio and some thoughts.

Lemonade @$55 average
I bought this as I was intrigued by the Insurance disrupter taking on legacy insurance services with a recurring business model, sexy UI and a tech first approach. I did not sell when I should of when it hit the highs of ~$90 shortly after IPO (mistake). They are Certified B Corporation which "are a new kind of business that balances purpose and profit" (this could be a pro if it's good marketing for socially conscious millennials) but it does worry me as a shareholder that the company needs to balance purpose with Profit - what b*llox. The expansion plans are exciting, you can imagine market cap growing on entry to new Geos, new insurance services (Car, Health, other). I feel I know this stock well having watched it since IPO, I will average down $40-$50 range and NEXT TIME, set stop loss in the $70+ range

Slack @$26 average
I bought the day of the IPO for $42 and have been averaging down since. It haunts me that I choose Slack over Zoom and watched Zoom moon and Slack went down or sideways. I kept saying Zoom was overvalued at $100, $200, $300, $400 (a lot of FOMO here). Why I stick with Slack is, I feel I know this stock now watching the price action, CEO on CNBC etc and it *could* work out in the end as Slack is very sticky once its rolled out to employees and the pure hope that Slack could get acquired by a legacy tech company (Oracle, IBM) for $40-$50 if not get there themselves in 1-2 years with the headwind of Covid-19.

J&J @$144 average
They are working on a vaccine, they may not be the first to market but there will be UNLIMITED DEMAND for this vaccine - J&J will get their share of the market, and with the hand sanitizer recalls in schools today, maybe not being first could be a good thing. I will hold J&J as it's a pretty stable stock and dividend payout in December. Pharma plays are very speculative, I've been burned many times. Play safe with them!

Asana @$24 average
Collaboration software, recent IPO, I think it could be a 2x in 1-2 years, I will average down if it goes <$20

My biggest regret this year is missing out on Zoom, fannying around thinking it was overvalued at $100, $200, $300 and so on. Heartbreaking.

I've been watching ISE stocks, mainly Dalata - I was hoping with the level 5, they would break below €2 and I'd hold in anticipation of a recovery, they bounced around €2.25 this week and have popped a bit - anyone have any thoughts on Dalata Group? How is Ryanair not <€10? Would you put money in either of these in this climate? Buy when there's blood in the streets?

Phew, good to offload. Appreciate any advice, comments, observations.

Nemeses2050

I would say it's a buying opportunity if INTC drops

Treppen

Cpfm wrote: »

Any view on how much more NCYT has to go? I got in based on your tip, ty, but thinking of adding more...not sure..

I got in too up 50% thanks. That was the easy part... Now to time an exit.
Stick or Twist?

jams100

RIGOLO wrote: »

NCYT killing it again this morning +8% in Paris +5% in London .

It will cushion the blow if INTEL tanks when we open.
Friggin Wall St again, hammering INTC cos they beat revenue estimates , they met eps and they raised their guidance , but one sector lagged so they hit the whole stock.

Also own Intel. They basically met analysts estimates, nothing to light up the room, also nothing immediate about the 7nm chip, but I'm going to hold already in Nvidia and AMD is way too expensive for me right now. The dividend makes Intel a safe stock still see it being $55 in 12 months

Cpfm

RIGOLO wrote: »

NCYT killing it again this morning +8% in Paris +5% in London .

It will cushion the blow if INTEL tanks when we open.
Friggin Wall St again, hammering INTC cos they beat revenue estimates , they met eps and they raised their guidance , but one sector lagged so they hit the whole stock.
ah well the dividend will cushion the blow. And their $10 billion share buyback will prop up the stock, plus the $9 billion NAND sale to SK and then the arrival of XE GPU .. theres still some hope. It was always a safe haven trading a narrow band parking spot.

DDDD was a big miss for me.
Id not been following it all but took a look based on all the tipsters here, and with such a small float it was crying out for a pop but I didnt. Well done to those who pulled the trigger . We all win some and lose some.

Any view on how much more NCYT has to go? I got in based on your tip, ty, but thinking of adding more...not sure..

RIGOLO

NCYT killing it again this morning +8% in Paris +5% in London .

It will cushion the blow if INTEL tanks when we open.
Friggin Wall St again, hammering INTC cos they beat revenue estimates , they met eps and they raised their guidance , but one sector lagged so they hit the whole stock.
ah well the dividend will cushion the blow. And their $10 billion share buyback will prop up the stock, plus the $9 billion NAND sale to SK and then the arrival of XE GPU .. theres still some hope. It was always a safe haven trading a narrow band parking spot.

DDDD was a big miss for me.
Id not been following it all but took a look based on all the tipsters here, and with such a small float it was crying out for a pop but I didnt. Well done to those who pulled the trigger . We all win some and lose some.

Nemeses2050

Augeo wrote: »

..... that bus might never come

probably, it was on its way until Friday though...but they changed schedule with the merger announcement

[Deleted User]

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

was hoping to jump in around 75-80 P level, guess have to wait

..... that bus might never come

cronos

Asana looks to me like it should be a decent bet. What do you guys think?

cronos

Wombatman wrote: »

Having a little punt on JKS.

Some month for that stock. Jesus.