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Exit Strategy

Loafing Oaf

I think this question deserves a thread of its own, apologies if the mods don't agree.

So assuming the country moves to Level 5/lockdown over the next week, at what point and in what manner should we move out of that stage?

Is Zero Covid a realistic target, and if not are the sort of numbers we reached in early summer good enough to start easing restrictions?

Do we do a piecemeal relaxation of restrictions like we did then, assuming there is no significant rise in cases, until everything is opened up? Or do some things (like pubs?) have to stay closed until we get a vaccine?

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[Deleted User]

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Mild illness huh?
But it's ok everybody. Forget what doctors say around the world, nphet, the who etc. A random person by the name of jacdaniel2014 on boards.ie said it's a mild virus.

If this virus has thought us anything, it should be to question the experts more.

The experts predicted doomsday. Have a look back at the early models that countries used to enter lockdown.

321123

The government coalition wants more restrictions and the so called opposition led by SF is cheering on (with hints that they want even more, SD seems to have profiled themselves as extra anti-travel for example).

Is there none of the parties that are vocal for something else than restrictions? No one that will atleast try to pull the hand break on this oncoming madness?

B.A._Baracus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Here's a Doctor for ya:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTydBWQVKQ0

Thanks for posting that.
I started it with an open mind and he had me genuinely listening to what he was saying and taking his points in. Then he states how he doesn't wear a mask and gets refused services in shops.

Is it that hard to wear a mask for what, 5 or 10 or whatever minutes while he does some shopping? Is social etiquette in these times that hard? (That being wearing a mask is just the thing to do when in shops with others etc)

He lost me after that to be honest.

wpd

Kildare outlet jammed yesterday as if it was the weekend before christmas

where are all the garda checkpoints stopping people leaving their counties???

What is the point bringing in more restrictions when the ones we have arent being adhered to
I have not seen one car turned around yet at one of those garda checkpoints

Loafing Oaf

321123 wrote: »

The government coalition wants more restrictions and the so called opposition led by SF is cheering on (with hints that they want even more, SD seems to have profiled themselves as extra anti-travel for example).

Is there none of the parties that are vocal for something else than restrictions?

Why would there be? All the opposition parties are officially to the left of the government and would nature favour a 'nanny state' approach to this sort of crisis.

B.A._Baracus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If this virus has thought us anything, it should be to question the experts more.

The experts predicted doomsday. Have a look back at the early models that countries used to enter lockdown.

With regards to blindingly trusting experts - I get what you're saying. Only a fool would believe everything and anything from everyone.

But the scary thing is none of us know how we would react to the virus. People have died and people have gotten messed up from it. Sure not everyone however but would you like to take that chance? I wouldn't.

Take https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fifty-six-covid-19-cases-linked-to-man-who-failed-to-isolate-after-trip-abroad-1.4384378?mode=amp
One man infects 56 people.

Would you really like to be one of those 56? Not I, you or anyone else on this planet can safely say all 56 will have mild symptoms.

dmakc

What in the name of F is their endgame goal here in however many weeks. How low can we get numbers from shutting up shop while schools etc stay open. We need to establish a level we're comfortable with because the summer days of <5 cases per day are not coming back

Loafing Oaf

dmakc wrote: »

We need to establish a level we're comfortable with because the summer days of <5 cases per day are not coming back

It doesn't seem that levels of covid can be stabilised in that way. If the virus is present in the company in any significant way it will keep spreading and eventually get out of control.

[Deleted User]

321123 wrote: »

The government coalition wants more restrictions and the so called opposition led by SF is cheering on (with hints that they want even more, SD seems to have profiled themselves as extra anti-travel for example).

Is there none of the parties that are vocal for something else than restrictions? No one that will atleast try to pull the hand break on this oncoming madness?

Because it’s quite obvious that it is the only option, a few posters on a forum of course think they know better than experts and experienced politicians though.

Wanderer78

paw patrol wrote: »

This is galling after all the taxes we pay for the health system and it is creak at the thought of 50+ new cases in ICU
Those admissions are on the drip too (as in singular cases one by one0 How on earth would the HSE deal with a disaster like a massive bus crash, bomb, chemical spill?

It's mental that they are destroying the country and peoples lives over civil service mismanagement because it's ain't covid

again, our health care systems issues are not exclusively due to the inefficiencies and mistakes of the public sector, but also of the involvement of the private sector

Kivaro

cnbyz wrote: »

How come sealing the country off has never been an option ? Not even at level 5. Does the government really trust people flying in to restrict their movements for 14 days ? Its not realistic. I know for a fact that they dont do it.

Do you know what would mostly solve this problem?
A €5 - €10 antigen test at airports. Do a test at the airport when you go and when you arrive back. They do it at German airports and elsewhere in Europe, but not in Ireland. Wonder why not?

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

If this virus has thought us anything, it should be to question the experts more.

The experts predicted doomsday. Have a look back at the early models that countries used to enter lockdown.

'all models are wrong, but some are useful'

hmmm

Erick Sweet Gourd wrote: »

Because it’s quite obvious that it is the only option, a few posters on a forum of course think they know better than experts and experienced politicians though.

Pages and pages of arguments, and not one person has said what is supposed to be the alternative to hospitals running out of space.

Telling people at the door who can barely breath that the "virus isn't real" or "it's just a flu bro" is not a strategy, and neither is telling people in a car crash that there is no room for them because all the ICU beds are full.

It's been repeated over and over again that the exit strategy is vaccines, treatments and rapid testing. Until those are available to us, we're trying to manage this as best we can without mass death and serious illness. I know it's **** but it's all we have.

pgj2015

wpd wrote: »

Kildare outlet jammed yesterday as if it was the weekend before christmas

where are all the garda checkpoints stopping people leaving their counties???

What is the point bringing in more restrictions when the ones we have arent being adhered to
I have not seen one car turned around yet at one of those garda checkpoints

not enough checkpoints but even if there was, there is no one stopping people travelling on trains and busses. level 4 wont make any difference.

[Deleted User]

polesheep wrote: »

That's called creeping herd immunity. Why not speed it up while protecting the very vulnerable as best as possible?

Why hasn't herd immunity worked on the seasonal flu?

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

Why hasn't herd immunity worked on the seasonal flu?

has the herd immunity approach with covid, worked anywhere?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1317769293589864449

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Here's a Doctor for ya:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTydBWQVKQ0

He's not a real doctor. He's a chiropractor. Chiropractors are renowned world wide for their authoritative views on infectious diseases and respiratory illnesses.....:pac::pac::pac:

Like, come on. Surely you look at links before you post them

Rodin

Checkpoints are worthless without legislation to legally enforce restrictions.

Many people can not be trusted to do the right thing and it is those such as the 56 case super spreader that must be tackled.

The 4 E's is nonsense. Every one of the 4 should be Enforcement.

B.A._Baracus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He's not a real doctor. He's a chiropractor. Chiropractors are renowned world wide for their authoritative views on infectious diseases and respiratory illnesses.....:pac::pac::pac:

Like, come on. Surely you look at links before you post them

He's a Chiropractor?!??!??!?!?!??! :pac:

Loafing Oaf

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

He's a Chiropractor?!??!??!?!?!??! :pac:

In fairness he has more credibility than one of the guys cited in the masks thread, who was successfully sued for claiming the Sandy Hook school shooting never happened https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/sandy-hook-shooting-leonard-pozner-lawsuit-james-fetzer-900334/

end of the road

The_Brood wrote: »

I mean there is no longer any positive exit strategy. We have lost completely. The only question at the end is will we hold these politicians accountable for ruining us. Will there be at least a slither of justice. People need to go to prison for this.

nobody is going to go to prison as no crime has been committed and there is no justice required.
trying to protect the economy and public health from a contagious virus which can cause effects regardless of whether people get it or not, is quite rightly not a criminal offense.

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

[/B]

You obviously haven’t been following the ****show for the last 4-5 months.
The government are afraid of their life to make a decision.
They are so afraid of accountability for this they even put another committee between themselves and any decisions.
All the time it’s NPHET advised this , we’re going by public health advice.
Taoiseach directing all questions towards the deputy CMO at one press conference.

Absolute joke of a government and in the last few weeks they have actually pushed back a bit against NPHET due to some unrest internally in Leinster house but their have been even more mixed messages since.

NPHET are blind to real life , The government are absolutely useless beyond belief and the country is going down the drain but sure let’s continue this way aimlessly plodding along with everybody’s life on hold for a virus that many who get tested for don’t even know they have it.

I’ve said it before whoever is making the decisions regarding restrictions need to move away from basing them on cases only.

Any restrictions must now be based on ADMISSIONS TO HOSPITALS WITH COVID only.

oh i have been following it, and properly, rather then taking specific statements and then twisting them to suit an agenda.
the government have been making all of the decisions based on all sorts of advice including public health advice from nphet, and it is quite right that the government should state who has given them the advice.
given the deputy CMO is a medical professional it's not surprising the taoiseach would divert questions to him, given he would be the best person to answer them.
they have no more pushed back against nphet, it's all optics and nphet are well aware of what the government are at. they are all playing you like a fiddle and it's brilliant to watch.
nphet are in no way blind to real life but they have a job to do and they are doing it and what is being asked of them. their concern is public health as it should be and is their job, and it's up to the government to do the balancing act which they are trying to do.
the fact that people don't even know they have the virus is what actually makes it dangerous as a whole, because if they don't know they have it they could be spreading it around unknowingly to people who might find out quite hard that they have it. hence we have to suppress it and why our approach is what it is, so that we can try and do that and protect what we can.
the restrictions aren't being based on cases only, cases may be one part as high cases equals potentially greater risks as a whole, but there will be lots of factors at play in terms of the decisions over restrictions.

end of the road

paw patrol wrote: »

This is galling after all the taxes we pay for the health system and it is creak at the thought of 50+ new cases in ICU
Those admissions are on the drip too (as in singular cases one by one0 How on earth would the HSE deal with a disaster like a massive bus crash, bomb, chemical spill?

It's mental that they are destroying the country and peoples lives over civil service mismanagement because it's ain't covid

they aren't destroying the country and people's lives, it is covid 19 that is doing that.
and no doubt it would be a lot more but for the measures been taken by most countries.

Danno wrote: »

There is no strategy, let alone an exit one. This is the Irish Govt we are talking about here.

NEPHET would have the country locked up for 4 years if they had their way. The only see a virus, nothing else exists.

nphet, as in the national public health emergency team, exist to specifically deal with public health issues and advise the government thus based on the evidence, nothing more, nothing less. it's not their job to see anything else, that is down to the government and any other advisery bodies.

Deleted User wrote: »

If this virus has thought us anything, it should be to question the experts more.

The experts predicted doomsday. Have a look back at the early models that countries used to enter lockdown.

posting incorrect information isn't questioning experts.
spouting ill informed nonsense isn't questioning experts.

taking specific statements and twisting them into something else isn't questioning experts.
plenty of us question experts and are happy to do so, but the difference is that most of us do it correctly.
we don't stamp our feet and decide that because we don't like what information they give they are automatically wrong and that those who give us the information we agree with are automatically right.
the experts predicted that if the virus was uncontrolled there would be serious issues, they were proven right.
they stated that if we could suppress and control it to a managable level, then while there would still be issues we could manage them, they were proven right on that also.

end of the road

polesheep wrote: »

And if someone is very vulnerable shouldn't that advice apply to them too?

it already does.
however the good thing about our approach is that when they do have to leave their homes because staying in their home full on won't always be an option, they have some degree of protection.

polesheep wrote: »

That's called creeping herd immunity. Why not speed it up while protecting the very vulnerable as best as possible?

because it's not possible.
you can't protect vulnerable people, some of who will rely on carers etc, when a virus is running uncontrolled in the community.

polesheep wrote: »

Theres is no evidence against it. Just ethical reasons.

there is evidence against it, italy during it's worst phase.

polesheep wrote: »

PPE

nope.
PPE wouldn't do very much in a situation where the virus is uncontrolled and the place where the vulnerable individual lives could not be controled to similar levels as somewhere such as a hospital because it wouldn't be practical.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

He's not a real doctor. He's a chiropractor. Chiropractors are renowned world wide for their authoritative views on infectious diseases and respiratory illnesses.....:pac::pac::pac:

Yet a lot of major news outlets seem to be listening to Bill Gates, self-claimed medical expert and Doctor of... nothing

He's also a primary funder of the WHO and the UN. He's been pumping billions into vaccination development and already stated vaccines provide a "20-1 return on investment". Guess what organizations our governments take a lot of their advice from? Yeah, that's right; WHO and the UN. Guess what these organizations and their funders are going to recommend? Yep.

Here's an internal medicine Doctor (hopefully that's good enough for you) from California, who's successfully treated 1700 Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine. There's many more, to which I can provide links. Practicing Doctors. Successfully treated patients.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE3QfTnIazU

For those unaware, countless doctors are saying a combination of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin successfully treats the virus *when administered early*. Even The Virology Journal, official publication of Dr. Fauci's National Institute of Health, stated back in 2005 "Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS Coronavirus infection and spread". So what's changed re: Dr. Fauci's findings and opinion? Maybe the fact he's now on the WHO/Gates payroll :rolleyes:

They're coming to sell you a vaccine most of you don't need. The reason they moved so quickly to try ban/discredit hydroxychloroquine (or any other treatment) is because with an effective, cheap treatment already available, big pharma can't sell the global population a 'vaccine'.

You're already aware of the saying "follow the money". It applies to nearly everything in life, and is no different here. So do it. Amazes me how people still don't understand this and fail to connect the most basic of dots.

Pitch n Putt

end of the road wrote: »

nobody is going to go to prison as no crime has been committed and there is no justice required.
trying to protect the economy and public health from a contagious virus which can cause effects regardless of whether people get it or not, is quite rightly not a criminal offense.

oh i have been following it, and properly, rather then taking specific statements and then twisting them to suit an agenda.
the government have been making all of the decisions based on all sorts of advice including public health advice from nphet, and it is quite right that the government should state who has given them the advice.
given the deputy CMO is a medical professional it's not surprising the taoiseach would divert questions to him, given he would be the best person to answer them.
they have no more pushed back against nphet, it's all optics and nphet are well aware of what the government are at. they are all playing you like a fiddle and it's brilliant to watch.
nphet are in no way blind to real life but they have a job to do and they are doing it and what is being asked of them. their concern is public health as it should be and is their job, and it's up to the government to do the balancing act which they are trying to do.
the fact that people don't even know they have the virus is what actually makes it dangerous as a whole, because if they don't know they have it they could be spreading it around unknowingly to people who might find out quite hard that they have it. hence we have to suppress it and why our approach is what it is, so that we can try and do that and protect what we can.
the restrictions aren't being based on cases only, cases may be one part as high cases equals potentially greater risks as a whole, but there will be lots of factors at play in terms of the decisions over restrictions.

Is that you Mr Martin?:pac::D

[Deleted User]

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Is that you Mr Martin?:pac::D

Probably one of Health Minister, Stephen Donnelly's "special advisors"

Ya know, either of the two JOURNALISTS he hired for the position. The stuff that goes on in this country; ya couldn't write it

end of the road

Deleted User wrote: »

Yet a lot of major news outlets seem to be listening to Bill Gates, self-claimed medical expert and Doctor of... nothing

He's also a primary funder of the WHO and the UN. He's been pumping billions into vaccination development and already stated vaccines provide a "20-1 return on investment". Guess what organizations our governments take a lot of their advice from? Yeah, that's right; WHO and the UN. Guess what these organizations and their funders are going to recommend? Yep.

Here's an internal medicine Doctor (hopefully that's good enough for you) from California, who's successfully treated 1700 Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine. There's many more, to which I can provide links. Practicing Doctors. Successfully treated patients.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE3QfTnIazU

For those unaware, countless doctors are saying a combination of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin successfully treats the virus *when administered early*. Even The Virology Journal, official publication of Dr. Fauci's National Institute of Health, stated back in 2005 "Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS Coronavirus infection and spread". So what's changed re: Dr. Fauci's findings and opinion? Maybe the fact he's now on the WHO/Gates payroll :rolleyes:

They're coming to sell you a vaccine most of you don't need. The reason they moved so quickly to try ban/discredit hydroxychloroquine (or any other treatment) is because with an effective, cheap treatment already available, big pharma can't sell the global population a 'vaccine'.

You're already aware of the saying "follow the money". It applies to nearly everything in life, and is no different here. So do it. Amazes me how people still don't understand this and fail to connect the most basic of dots.

or more likely, it's being banned as it's bogy nonsense with plenty of evidence showing it's lack of effectiveness.

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

Why hasn't herd immunity worked on the seasonal flu?

Because the flu virus comes in many strains, as you should know.

[Deleted User]

polesheep wrote: »

Because the flu virus comes in many strains, as you should know.

Why would herd immunity work on COVID-19 then?

polesheep

end of the road wrote: »

it already does.
however the good thing about our approach is that when they do have to leave their homes because staying in their home full on won't always be an option, they have some degree of protection.

Perhaps you misunderstood. You are happy to exclude certain people from going to the shops etc and I am saying that the same thing could be applied to very vulnerable people.

because it's not possible.
you can't protect vulnerable people, some of who will rely on carers etc, when a virus is running uncontrolled in the community.

Yes, you can, by using PPE.

there is evidence against it, italy during it's worst phase.

There is zero evidence. Italy never tried for herd immunity.

nope.
PPE wouldn't do very much in a situation where the virus is uncontrolled and the place where the vulnerable individual lives could not be controled to similar levels as somewhere such as a hospital because it wouldn't be practical.

It would be more practical than closing down most of the economy. We have spent (wasted) billions to date, some of which could have been spent on improving control in those environments.