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Exit Strategy

Loafing Oaf

I think this question deserves a thread of its own, apologies if the mods don't agree.

So assuming the country moves to Level 5/lockdown over the next week, at what point and in what manner should we move out of that stage?

Is Zero Covid a realistic target, and if not are the sort of numbers we reached in early summer good enough to start easing restrictions?

Do we do a piecemeal relaxation of restrictions like we did then, assuming there is no significant rise in cases, until everything is opened up? Or do some things (like pubs?) have to stay closed until we get a vaccine?

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end of the road

PommieBast wrote: »

For people who have had relationship breakups due to Covid keeping schools open at the expense of everything else is pretty grating. They are not going to sit at home indefinately for someone else's kids.

they don't have to sit at home, just follow the very minimal and basic things being asked of them while we have a contagious virus.
the fact is that keeping schools open is ultimately more important then keeping non-essential stuff open.
after all, people were cribbing when the schools weren't open and when they opened them the same people are cribbing because they opened them, showing ultimately damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Loafing Oaf

end of the road wrote: »

ultimately yes, we semi-restrict all of us on a temporary basis and restrict or with-hold non-essential stuff to minimise the spread of the virus and allow everyone to live a basic life.

I also think this is only way to break the cycle of lockdown-opening up-back to lockdown, but I was hoping someone would suggest a more palatable approach.

Infini

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

So we restrict the other 70% of the population indefinitely?

Cancel all social events, sports fixtures,weddings,travel etc etc

Stop everything for how long 1,2,5 years ??

Wait for a vaccine that may never arrive is that the saviour of life as we know it?

Don’t forget with all the above restrictions in place schools remain open workplaces remain operational, You can travel around the country for work during the week but travels an issue at weekends

Sorry now but we just can’t continue down the chosen path by NPHET it’s reckless to say the least.

It means hold of on social events until sometime next year at least, this virus wont last years, was on the radio today that there's 19 different candidate vaccines in development according to the WHO. Goverments are putting a huge amount of financial resources into stamping out this thing they can't afford to have it running years either. My own feeling is this should be coming to an end around June or so next year but that for at least this coming winter most things are a write off, this poxy virus is everywhere atm.

Just need to cop on, dont gather in large groups, social distance etc, limit physical contacts to only what's necessary and this thing can be kept under control, it's getting out of hand because people in their frustration about the current reality aren't giving a damn when they should be and because of it were facing another lockdown scenario.

Ignoring things in a fit of anger or utter selfish "i dont give a fúck" attitude isnt going to make the virus go away, its going to make it goddamn worse. All well and good saying this and that until the hospital system collapses and everyone's up shít creek.

The_Brood

I mean there is no longer any positive exit strategy. We have lost completely. The only question at the end is will we hold these politicians accountable for ruining us. Will there be at least a slither of justice. People need to go to prison for this.

Sheepdish1

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I also think this is only way to break the cycle of lockdown-opening up-back to lockdown, but I was hoping someone would suggest a more palatable approach.

Lockdowns should only be used as last resort to buy time and stop healthcare becoming overrun . Testing, tracing and isolating of possible contacts is what needs to be done to tackle covid.

Lockdowns are used to buy time and are not a solution longterm particularly with not enforcing incoming travellers to quarantine and sharing a boarder with another country.

[Deleted User]

The_Brood wrote: »

I mean there is no longer any positive exit strategy. We have lost completely. The only question at the end is will we hold these politicians accountable for ruining us. Will there be at least a slither of justice. People need to go to prison for this.

You are crazy to send people to jail for completely non criminal acts aren't ya?

Wanderer78

The_Brood wrote:

I mean there is no longer any positive exit strategy. We have lost completely. The only question at the end is will we hold these politicians accountable for ruining us. Will there be at least a slither of justice. People need to go to prison for this.

Prison, for what?

Pitch n Putt

end of the road wrote: »

ultimately yes, we semi-restrict all of us on a temporary basis and restrict or with-hold non-essential stuff to minimise the spread of the virus and allow everyone to live a basic life.
schools remain open because children do still have to be educated, i would agree not closing them could be a bad call but i certainly understand why they aren't closing them.
nphet haven't chosen anything, that was the government. nphet simply advise and the government make the decisions, nphet are not responsible for any decisions the government make nor does nphet call the shots like some seem to think.

You obviously haven’t been following the ****show for the last 4-5 months.
The government are afraid of their life to make a decision.
They are so afraid of accountability for this they even put another committee between themselves and any decisions.
All the time it’s NPHET advised this , we’re going by public health advice.
Taoiseach directing all questions towards the deputy CMO at one press conference.

Absolute joke of a government and in the last few weeks they have actually pushed back a bit against NPHET due to some unrest internally in Leinster house but their have been even more mixed messages since.

NPHET are blind to real life , The government are absolutely useless beyond belief and the country is going down the drain but sure let’s continue this way aimlessly plodding along with everybody’s life on hold for a virus that many who get tested for don’t even know they have it.

I’ve said it before whoever is making the decisions regarding restrictions need to move away from basing them on cases only.

Any restrictions must now be based on ADMISSIONS TO HOSPITALS WITH COVID only.

Wanderer78

Pitch n Putt wrote:

Any restrictions must now be based on ADMISSIONS TO HOSPITALS WITH COVID only.

What do you mean?

Pitch n Putt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

What do you mean?

Of the 7000 plus cases last week how many needed hospitalisation ?
With only 18 admissions in previous 24 hours and 9 people discharged from hospital this gives an increase of 9 patients yesterday.

So 7400 cases with let’s just say 20 per day hospital admissions (very high estimation)the other 7260 many of which will be asymptomatic recover at home within ten days
These 7260 are in effect just cases but we want to shutdown everything indefinitely because of these high case numbers....

Restrictions need to be based solely on just hospital admissions with covid.

Not someone going for a routine procedure who happens to be a symptomatic when tested.

Just purely Covid admissions.

Wanderer78

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Of the 7000 plus cases last week how many needed hospitalisation ?
With only 18 admissions in previous 24 hours and 9 people discharged from hospital this gives an increase of 9 patients yesterday.

So 7400 cases with let’s just say 20 per day hospital admissions (very high estimation)the other 7260 many of which will be asymptomatic recover at home within ten days
These 7260 are in effect just cases but we want to shutdown everything indefinitely because of these high case numbers....

Restrictions need to be based solely on just hospital admissions with covid.

Not someone going for a routine procedure who happens to be a symptomatic when tested.

Just purely Covid admissions.

so what do we do with all other hospital admissions?

Pitch n Putt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so what do we do with all other hospital admissions?

It’s rolling admissions and discharge daily.

We done the first lockdown to flatten the curve and protect the hospitals when we didn’t know what virus was about.

Now we know it’s a mild illness for most but we’re still heading for another seesaw lockdown.

When cases were at very low numbers in July August we sat on our hands and did nothing so now we’re supposed to return to lockdown again

A lockdown based solely on high case numbers

We’re supposed to be living with covid not existing with it

And it’s all to protect our inept mismanaged over funded health service.

Wanderer78

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

It’s rolling admissions and discharge daily.

We done the first lockdown to flatten the curve and protect the hospitals when we didn’t know what virus was about.

Now we know it’s a mild illness for most but we’re still heading for another seesaw lockdown.

When cases were at very low numbers in July August we sat on our hands and did nothing so now we’re supposed to return to lockdown again

A lockdown based solely on high case numbers

We’re supposed to be living with covid not existing with it

And it’s all to protect our inept mismanaged over funded health service.

what should we do with those that require longer term care?

our health care system has been drastically underfunded for decades now, highly destructive economic policies such as austerity have been just that, particularly for the health care system. and its also important to remember the inefficiencies of the involvement of the private sector in our health care system, rent-seeking activities etc

Pitch n Putt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what should we do with those that require longer term care?

our health care system has been drastically underfunded for decades now, highly destructive economic policies such as austerity have been just that, particularly for the health care system. and its also important to remember the inefficiencies of the involvement of the private sector in our health care system, rent-seeking activities etc

One of the highest funded systems in Europe but mismanagement from the top down has left us with a third world system that will now in effect be the cause of economic destruction of our country as we try to protect said system.

No one is responsible though. We will commission a few reports in time that will find nothing wrong and the show will go on and on.

Wanderer78

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

One of the highest funded systems in Europe but mismanagement from the top down has left us with a third world system that will now in effect be the cause of economic destruction of our country as we try to protect said system.

No one is responsible though. We will commission a few reports in time that will find nothing wrong and the show will go on and on.

once again, not only is our health care systems faults due to the effect of inefficiencies of the public system, but also the inefficiencies of the interaction with the private system, and highly destructive policies such as austerity etc etc. the existence of the virus is in fact leading to our economic issues, of which we were forewarned of, but decided it was best to implement such dangerous policies anyway.

JojoLoca

Multipass wrote: »

zero covid is absolutely not possible with a vaccine. The vaccines being developed ameliorate symptoms, nothing more. There will still be people catching Covid, and there will still be people dying from covid. The question is will we abandon all of the current measures we’re taking to save them.

This is what I've been thinking myself. People seem to think a vaccine is some sort of magic injection which will cure you and make you immune to Covid within seconds. It will not. As with any vaccinations, you can still get infected, although with less or no symptoms. Even if you have no symptoms you might still be spreading it to others (that's what is happening currently and we don't know if vaccine will change that). It's also possible that vaccine won't work on some people and they will die or get seriously sick. So Covid won't stop with the vaccine in a short period of time, as many seem to think.

polesheep

amadangomor wrote: »

Give over. It's a piece of material on your face.

If someone can't wear one they shouldn't go to work/shops etc.

And if someone is very vulnerable shouldn't that advice apply to them too?

Dravokivich

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

One of the highest funded systems in Europe but mismanagement from the top down has left us with a third world system that will now in effect be the cause of economic destruction of our country as we try to protect said system.

No one is responsible though. We will commission a few reports in time that will find nothing wrong and the show will go on and on.

Our healthcare is not 3rd world.

paw patrol

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

One of the highest funded systems in Europe but mismanagement from the top down has left us with a third world system that will now in effect be the cause of economic destruction of our country as we try to protect said system.

No one is responsible though. We will commission a few reports in time that will find nothing wrong and the show will go on and on.

This is galling after all the taxes we pay for the health system and it is creak at the thought of 50+ new cases in ICU
Those admissions are on the drip too (as in singular cases one by one0 How on earth would the HSE deal with a disaster like a massive bus crash, bomb, chemical spill?

It's mental that they are destroying the country and peoples lives over civil service mismanagement because it's ain't covid

polesheep

bilbot79 wrote: »

I honestly think if we get the numbers down again we should then do planned 2 week lockdowns every 6 weeks. The virus would be kept in check and businesses would have certainty

That's called creeping herd immunity. Why not speed it up while protecting the very vulnerable as best as possible?

polesheep

Rodin wrote: »

No evidence for herd immunity being realistically achievable.

Theres is no evidence against it. Just ethical reasons.

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you shield people who need home help?

PPE

B.A._Baracus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Pretty much this.

We will keep locking down until there is a vaccine or our resources run out.

In an extremely PC, social media, hysteria driven world, we have decided that a mild illness is worth destroying the world for.

Mild illness huh?
But it's ok everybody. Forget what doctors say around the world, nphet, the who etc. A random person by the name of jacdaniel2014 on boards.ie said it's a mild virus.

Multipass

Dravokivich wrote: »

Our healthcare is not 3rd world.

The waiting times are though.

[Deleted User]

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Mild illness huh?
But it's ok everybody. Forget what doctors say around the world, nphet, the who etc. A random person by the name of jacdaniels on boards.ie said it's a mild virus.

Here's a Doctor for ya:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTydBWQVKQ0

spaceHopper

The only way out of this before a vaccine is "Test Trace Isolate" the reason for the March lock down was to allow the hospitals the get ready and to get setup for contact tracing and isolating them. We f1cked both of those up

Kermit.de.frog

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Restrictions need to be based solely on just hospital admissions with covid.

Not someone going for a routine procedure who happens to be a symptomatic when tested.

Just purely Covid admissions.

Nope because once admissions soar it's already too late.

We have to be proactive, not reactive.

Danno

There is no strategy, let alone an exit one. This is the Irish Govt we are talking about here.

NEPHET would have the country locked up for 4 years if they had their way. The only see a virus, nothing else exists.

Loafing Oaf

spaceHopper wrote: »

The only way out of this before a vaccine is "Test Trace Isolate"

Can this alone keep the virus suppressed in Ireland? I believe this strategy has succeeded in South Korea, but they are a very disciplined and socially responsible society. Even if the TTI system is set up to the optimum, can we rely on Irish people to get tested as soon they get symptoms, and to isolate themselves comprehensively for the requisite period if they are identified as a contact?

cnbyz

How come sealing the country off has never been an option ? Not even at level 5. Does the government really trust people flying in to restrict their movements for 14 days ? Its not realistic. I know for a fact that they dont do it.