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Exit Strategy

Loafing Oaf

I think this question deserves a thread of its own, apologies if the mods don't agree.

So assuming the country moves to Level 5/lockdown over the next week, at what point and in what manner should we move out of that stage?

Is Zero Covid a realistic target, and if not are the sort of numbers we reached in early summer good enough to start easing restrictions?

Do we do a piecemeal relaxation of restrictions like we did then, assuming there is no significant rise in cases, until everything is opened up? Or do some things (like pubs?) have to stay closed until we get a vaccine?

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is_that_so

BigPineapple wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing trick here.

All this yo-yo lock down, open up and lock down is not going to work in the long run. It is causing havoc with people's planning for anything long term.

It need to be tackled based on the root of the problem. Hear me out, why not lock down the country for a period until tests consistently give zero case for 'x' number of weeks consecutively (insert what is considered a safe number here). Simultaneously, any one coming into the island of Ireland must isolate for 14 days (set a plan in place by using a designated hotel/location at all entry points into the country) and also keep the contact tracing program going.

The lock down will stop the spread in country and automatic forced isolation on entry to country will stop the virus' existence to spread also. It is not hard to imagine that once the virus is 'gone' from community and there are no more imported cases, our lives can go resume to normal in full without the fear of further contraction if the government keep up with enforcing forced isolation on entry to Ireland. All activities therefore goes back to normal and our economy will move again.

(Yes I recognised that Northern Ireland will be an issue but the fact that they are on an island which makes it easier to implement the same compare to mainland Europe and is 'small' [relatively speaking] compare to mainland UK, it might not be that hard for the Irish government to convince UK to give Northern Ireland funding to do this experiment at the same time). Airline industry will suffer too in the short term - but they are suffering now anyway. Plus it doesn't mean people can't travel to Ireland, it just mean they will be cooped up in a hotel room for 2 weeks before they are allowed to be out.

All in all, it will be painful in the short term socially and financially to implement (We're already facing this painful situation as is anyway and the current government plan doesn't have an exit strategy). The long term benefit is that everyone can enjoy life again thereafter if you take out the source of virus entering the community.

Extra plan: If the government want to be extremely careful, they a could also devise a plan to test everyone in the country when near completing the lockdown as a final check.

This to me would be a good strategy. Everyone moves at the same pace, know the same target, everyone suffer once (hopefully) and keep virus out of country permanently.

This is called a Zero COVID strategy, which is not realistic. NPHET will not commit to targets any more than they will commit to x number of weeks being guaranteed. As low as possible is their answer on targets and we know just how reliable 2 weeks and 3 weeks are. Given the two are related the on-off merry go round is likely to continue if more surges emerge.

CalamariFritti

Waiting for a vaccine is a fools plan. Thats my personal opinion and of course I may be proven wrong. But even the most conservative folks will agree with me that it cannot be our only plan.

I also do not think there will be another lockdown. We just cant. Time is up. Another 6 months or more of this is economical and societal suicide.

I think we're basically going for controlled spread/herd immunity. Which has already begun but they call it 'living with covid' instead. Because we cannot call it by its name because of the hysteria we created ourselves.

It makes sense from many angles, most importantly the fact that this thing is not remotely as dangerous as we thought at the start. IFR of 0.05% for under 70s and probably 10 or 20 times higher for older people. Not great and we'd love it to be a little less especially for the oldies but hardly what we thought at the beginning and not far off the flu and in fact inching closer to it every day. Long covid are outliers and high risk groups aren't what we think they are either. Not everyone with a fat arse or a bit of high blood pressure is in danger from covid. We have to get on it with it. And we are getting on with it - only with a virtue veil over it.

So for the next while we gonna have to do this funny dance where we're doing something we say we're not doing and where everyone can save face and we can all say we did everything we could. Its gonna be a pain in the hole because it will prolong all this hand wringing and merry virtue bullsh1t but it is what it is.

While 'living with covid' we will improve treatments and the thing will peter out cos hardly anyone will be dying from it anymore. Somewhere along the line vaccines may or may not arrive. We'll see,

[Deleted User]

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Do you work in healthcare? And what have you seen it do to people?

I do work in healthcare. I've seen a colleague with no comorbidities spend 6 weeks in ICU in the first wave. This person will more than likely have to retire due to effects of "long covid" syndrome.

I've a colleague who still hasn't recovered her sense of smell/taste and is now prone to migraines that require sick leave.

I've seen numerous patients die due to covid. This is not a mild illness. It can be life changing and whilst I believe the cases of asymptomatic patients is far higher than recorded. I think the fact that people with confirmed covid-19 back in March/April now testing negative for covid antibodies is concerning. All these people who get it asymptomatically are at risk of getting infected again and the second time, it might be a more serious infection.

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The mildness is the people who are asymptotic Dazzler.

Or the soccer player who scored a goal this afternoon about a fortnight after a positive test.

Is the median age of death from HIV/AIDS in the late 80s?

Is AIDS/HIV most vulnerable victims residing in nursing homes?

You just don't get it, finty. Asymptomatic can't be a mild illness. If you have no symptoms, how can you be having "mild symptoms" of covid. Your analogy doesn't make sense.

HIV/AIDS treatment means that no one should die of that disease as long as they take their medication these days. Would you suggest that somebody who takes their meds for their HIV/AIDS has a mild form of it?

The exit strategy is the vaccine and anybody who refuses to take it post EMA approval should be treated like a pariah (bar certain medical conditions).

[Deleted User]

Looks like the main vaccines don’t even make a person immune. It might just help make the symptoms milder.

But Covid is already extremely mild in most cases.

Median age of deaths is 88 apparently. Not sure how an 88 year old with advanced COPD will do even with a very mild dose.

The vaccine might end up pretty useless anyways. Although it will probably be enough of a placebo effect to move on.

Maybe we’ll start removing the possible and probable from the death toll and people will feel like things are better.

Once the media settle down, people will quickly forget about it.

[Deleted User]

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Waiting for a vaccine is a fools plan. Thats my personal opinion and of course I may be proven wrong. But even the most conservative folks will agree with me that it cannot be our only plan.

I also do not think there will be another lockdown. We just cant. Time is up. Another 6 months or more of this is economical and societal suicide.

I think we're basically going for controlled spread/herd immunity. Which has already begun but they call it 'living with covid' instead. Because we cannot call it by its name because of the hysteria we created ourselves.

It makes sense from many angles, most importantly the fact that this thing is not remotely as dangerous as we thought at the start. IFR of 0.05% for under 70s and probably 10 or 20 times higher for older people. Not great and we'd love it to be a little less especially for the oldies but hardly what we thought at the beginning and not far off the flu and in fact inching closer to it every day. Long covid are outliers and high risk groups aren't what we think they are either. Not everyone with a fat arse or a bit of high blood pressure is in danger from covid. We have to get on it with it. And we are getting on with it - only with a virtue veil over it.

So for the next while we gonna have to do this funny dance where we're doing something we say we're not doing and where everyone can save face and we can all say we did everything we could. Its gonna be a pain in the hole because it will prolong all this hand wringing and merry virtue bullsh1t but it is what it is.

While 'living with covid' we will improve treatments and the thing will peter out cos hardly anyone will be dying from it anymore. Somewhere along the line vaccines may or may not arrive. We'll see,

Another beating the “herd immunity” hoax. How many time’s does it have to be explained that it’s not possible without a vaccine and the WHO have said even attempting it would be unethical.

We will likely be lockdown again by the end of the coming week because we actually have some responsible people at least calling the shots, ok they are slow as we should be at level 5 for the last 2 weeks already but once we get to midterm we are going for it and I would be confident if that.

Zebra3

Rodin wrote: »

Lock the place down. By land, air and sea.... get rid of it from the island then let's get back to living

Travel is a luxury

There you go folks, if you have family living abroad this poster and the thankers of the post don't care.

No sympathy for those from abroad living here who might want to take their kids home every so often to see their grandparents.

No doubt part of the WFH I'm all right Jack brigade banging on endlessly about lockdowns with no concern for those losing their jobs.

I won't even go in to the part where there's no understanding of part of this island being part of a large state that mainly consists of the large island to our east.

[Deleted User]

The vaccine denialism is strong in this thread:rolleyes:

completedit

Zebra3 wrote: »

There you go folks, if you have family living abroad this poster and the thankers of the post don't care.

No sympathy for those from abroad living here who might want to take their kids home every so often to see their grandparents.

No doubt part of the WFH I'm all right Jack brigade banging on endlessly about lockdowns with no concern for those losing their jobs.

I won't even go in to the part where there's no understanding of part of this island being part of a large state that mainly consists of the large island to our east.

And also, part of a trading bloc where 'freedom of movement' is one of the key tenets of membership and citizenship

PommieBast

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Waiting for a vaccine is a fools plan. Thats my personal opinion and of course I may be proven wrong. But even the most conservative folks will agree with me that it cannot be our only plan.

I also do not think there will be another lockdown. We just cant. Time is up. Another 6 months or more of this is economical and societal suicide.

The problem is not just lockdowns - it is the wholesale way the Irish government and public services is preventing people getting on with their lives. Being completely unable to plan ahead has already destroyed my relationship. Two weeks ago when the first advice to move to Level 5 was leaked I went straight to the airport and flew over to my parents' place, as at least over there I can at least get stuff done.

Del2005

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I do work in healthcare. I've seen a colleague with no comorbidities spend 6 weeks in ICU in the first wave. This person will more than likely have to retire due to effects of "long covid" syndrome.

I've a colleague who still hasn't recovered her sense of smell/taste and is now prone to migraines that require sick leave.

I've seen numerous patients die due to covid. This is not a mild illness. It can be life changing and whilst I believe the cases of asymptomatic patients is far higher than recorded. I think the fact that people with confirmed covid-19 back in March/April now testing negative for covid antibodies is concerning. All these people who get it asymptomatically are at risk of getting infected again and the second time, it might be a more serious infection.

For every young and/or healthy person they trot out with severe or long term issues is there a corresponding high risk person who doesn't have any issues?

If catching the virus does not provide immunity then a vaccine will not work. So we are being locked down and our economy's are all crashing in the hope that a vaccine will be available which won't offer any protection, so the vulnerable will still be at risk.

nthclare

PommieBast wrote: »

The problem is not just lockdowns - it is the wholesale way the Irish government and public services is preventing people getting on with their lives. Being completely unable to plan ahead has already destroyed my relationship. Two weeks ago when the first advice to move to Level 5 was leaked I went straight to the airport and flew over to my parents' place, as at least over there I can at least get stuff done.

My relationship was destroyed because of covid too, my exe has gad, generalised anxiety disorder.

She was managing OK before this covid started, but she got sucked into the fear and circus and couldn't cope it was all too much for her.
So she got very anxious and ocd about everything, started to crumble..

The relationship broke down a few weeks ago, she just lost the rag and told me it's over.

Although I suggested she stop listening to the RTE and nephet propaganda and just wash her hands, sanatize, wear a mask and social distance when around people.

Now that's what I'm doing, but her fear magnified so far as to think its in the air around us.

It's not one bit funny if you've obsessive compulsive disorder or anxiety.

There's relationships being destroyed by all the fear and control tactics.
I guarantee that if the media spent more time giving tips on how to stay safe rather than the usual fear and guilt shaming, people would probably behave themselves better.

eleventh

Nobody should be wearing a mask and especially not someone with anxiety or other sensitivities - they can't wear one without intensifying the condition.
It's a crime what is being done to people.

uli84

Exit strategy hahah good one as if there ever was one

amadangomor

eleventh wrote: »

Nobody should be wearing a mask and especially not someone with anxiety or other sensitivities - they can't wear one without intensifying the condition.
It's a crime what is being done to people.

Give over. It's a piece of material on your face.

If someone can't wear one they shouldn't go to work/shops etc.

nthclare

amadangomor wrote: »

Give over. It's a piece of material on your face.

If someone can't wear one they shouldn't go to work/shops etc.

Obviously you're not sympathetic to people who suffer from mental health problems and have issues with covering their face.

It's OK for you and I to wear a mask.

But there's some people who just can't without all out panic and anxiety.

If you've a simple solution to this, patent it and you'll be able to live with the financial security of a billionaire.

[Deleted User]

eleventh wrote: »

Nobody should be wearing a mask and especially not someone with anxiety or other sensitivities - they can't wear one without intensifying the condition.
It's a crime what is being done to people.

Being made to wear a mask is a crime? Such utter nonsense.

In other news jacket wearing implicated in multiple crimes, scarfs blamed for rise in Gp visits.

Loafing Oaf

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Waiting for a vaccine is a fools plan. Thats my personal opinion and of course I may be proven wrong. But even the most conservative folks will agree with me that it cannot be our only plan.

I also do not think there will be another lockdown.

Well 'lockdown' is a rather subjective term, but if you don't believe more severe restrictions are going to be introduced over the next week or so, you may be in for a bit of a shock...

Local Area Man

I'm hopeful the rapid testing kits that are being developed will mark a major turning point in the battle against the disease. If these are available to the general public it might allow many people the ability to avoid spreading the disease unwittingly.

It would of course take a lot of buy in from the public and that's never certain.

Multipass

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Waiting for a vaccine is a fools plan. Thats my personal opinion and of course I may be proven wrong. But even the most conservative folks will agree with me that it cannot be our only plan.

I also do not think there will be another lockdown. We just cant. Time is up. Another 6 months or more of this is economical and societal suicide.

I think we're basically going for controlled spread/herd immunity. Which has already begun but they call it 'living with covid' instead. Because we cannot call it by its name because of the hysteria we created ourselves.

It makes sense from many angles, most importantly the fact that this thing is not remotely as dangerous as we thought at the start. IFR of 0.05% for under 70s and probably 10 or 20 times higher for older people. Not great and we'd love it to be a little less especially for the oldies but hardly what we thought at the beginning and not far off the flu and in fact inching closer to it every day. Long covid are outliers and high risk groups aren't what we think they are either. Not everyone with a fat arse or a bit of high blood pressure is in danger from covid. We have to get on it with it. And we are getting on with it - only with a virtue veil over it.

So for the next while we gonna have to do this funny dance where we're doing something we say we're not doing and where everyone can save face and we can all say we did everything we could. Its gonna be a pain in the hole because it will prolong all this hand wringing and merry virtue bullsh1t but it is what it is.

While 'living with covid' we will improve treatments and the thing will peter out cos hardly anyone will be dying from it anymore. Somewhere along the line vaccines may or may not arrive. We'll see,

I agree with you. The sad thing is that we have to waste billions on a placebo vaccine, and billions waiting for said vaccine, purely to stop this hysteria and start life up again. People are so uninterested in the shady ways these vaccines are being pushed through, because they just want to believe in a cure. Even sadder is that there is a possibility that these rushed through vaccines will ruin the chances of ever getting a properly effective vaccine

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/early-approval-covid-19-vaccine-could-stymie-hunt-better-ones
Early approval of a COVID-19 vaccine could stymie the hunt for better ones

Rodin

The short-term thinking from many is astounding.

We already had this thing beaten. But it was the coming out of lockdown was the issue. We don't have a strategy for that.

NZ aren't crying about closing/opening schools. They aren't worrying about pubs/restaurants being closed and jobs losses. They don't worry about longterm mental health issues with repeated lockdowns.

They took the big decision because Jacinda has foresight. And she's been proven right.

Nobody should leave an airport in this country without being quarantined for 2 weeks at their own expense.

Multipass

Rodin wrote: »

The short-term thinking from many is astounding.

We already had this thing beaten. But it was the coming out of lockdown was the issue. We don't have a strategy for that.

NZ aren't crying about closing/opening schools. They aren't worrying about pubs/restaurants being closed and jobs losses. They don't worry about longterm mental health issues with repeated lockdowns.

They took the big decision because Jacinda has foresight. And she's been proven right.

Nobody should leave an airport in this country without being quarantined for 2 weeks at their own expense.

What world are you living in? We had nothing beaten, we hid away for a while, you can’t stay locked down forever. It was always going to spike afterwards, remember ‘flattening the curve’?

Local Area Man

If a functional vaccine isn't developed, where does that leave New Zealand in the longer term? Isolated from the rest of the world indefinitely? I'd imagine their economy won't last long in that scenario.

Away With The Fairies

Local Area Man wrote: »

If a functional vaccine isn't developed, where does that leave New Zealand in the longer term? Isolated from the rest of the world indefinitely? I'd imagine their economy won't last long in that scenario.

But what about ourselves? Where does that leave us? Repeated lockdowns? That's not an option for us either.

Away With The Fairies

eleventh wrote: »

Nobody should be wearing a mask and especially not someone with anxiety or other sensitivities - they can't wear one without intensifying the condition.
It's a crime what is being done to people.

Were you replying to the poster who broke up with the girlfriend due to anxiety over all this covid?

Pretty sure having anxiety over covid and they would be wearing a mask. But you don't want them to wear a mask? That would intensify their anxiety with covid around.

Loafing Oaf

Multipass wrote: »

What world are you living in? We had nothing beaten, we hid away for a while, you can’t stay locked down forever. It was always going to spike afterwards, remember ‘flattening the curve’?

I suppose the fundamental question I'm posing in this thread is whether it's possible to 'open things up' in such a way that covid cases won't spike, or will spike in a manageable way.

Local Area Man

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

But what about ourselves? Where does that leave us? Repeated lockdowns? That's not an option for us either.

I don't have an issue with periods of tighter restrictions to suppress the case load for hospitals, followed by an easing of restrictions and so forth. To me that's living with the virus.

I don't think we can expect a zero covid scenario given the internal border on the island and our membership of the EU.

Plumbthedepths

There is no plan other than fingers crossed for a vaccine or until the money runs out. It will be interesting to see which happens first. Thankfully economic concerns are taken into consideration with Nphet's nuclear option to lock the country down.

greenfield21

Rodin wrote: »

The short-term thinking from many is astounding.

We already had this thing beaten. But it was the coming out of lockdown was the issue. We don't have a strategy for that.

NZ aren't crying about closing/opening schools. They aren't worrying about pubs/restaurants being closed and jobs losses. They don't worry about longterm mental health issues with repeated lockdowns.

They took the big decision because Jacinda has foresight. And she's been proven right.

Nobody should leave an airport in this country without being quarantined for 2 weeks at their own expense.

What about the border, airports are still basically closed in new Zealand, for it to be effective airports and borders had to close down long term which there was never support for here.

eleventh

amadangomor wrote: »

Give over. It's a piece of material on your face.

One of Europe’s Leading Neurologists Claims Masks Are Dangerous & Explains Why

https://www.collective-evolution.com/2020/10/07/one-of-europes-leading-neurologists-claims-masks-are-dangerous-explains-why/