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Exit Strategy

Loafing Oaf

I think this question deserves a thread of its own, apologies if the mods don't agree.

So assuming the country moves to Level 5/lockdown over the next week, at what point and in what manner should we move out of that stage?

Is Zero Covid a realistic target, and if not are the sort of numbers we reached in early summer good enough to start easing restrictions?

Do we do a piecemeal relaxation of restrictions like we did then, assuming there is no significant rise in cases, until everything is opened up? Or do some things (like pubs?) have to stay closed until we get a vaccine?

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basill

Whats with the delusion that little ole Ireland of 5m is going to get access to a vaccine and all will be well in the New Year? From the outset of the spread of the virus sovereign nations have acted in their own best interests and I see no reason for them not to follow suit again. Ireland will be a long time waiting to see any vaccine and when it does who gets it, will it be compulsory, how much will it cost? If you decide against taking it and then infect someone what will be the repercussions if any?

thenightman

EU have reserved 200m doses and Pfizer, who are leading the vaccine race, have a large presence here and have had for decades. I'd say when a vaccine is available and being mass produced at least our vulnerable and healthcare staff won't be long getting access. Joe and Jane Bloggs might be waiting a while alright.

ixoy

basill wrote: »

Whats with the delusion that little ole Ireland of 5m is going to get access to a vaccine and all will be well in the New Year?

Because the EU have pre-purchased a large number of vaccine doses for distribution amongst its members.

PommieBast

In the spring it was "flatten the curve". Come the summer when the curve was flat nothing was done, and by this I mean even basic things like telling individuals what their citizenship/visa status is. Precious goodwill squandered. And when they did have a plan of sorts in the National Framework, they diverged from it almost immediately. The final straw was the government's defence in the Ryanair high-court case.

The government needs to address its credability issue before it even pretends to have an exit strategy.

PTH2009

Think we should scrap this living with covid and do up a new plan

there's not much living with covid in it

Infini

Truth is what people are missing is not that simply covid is a new virus it's the collateral damage it causes if it's allowed to run rampant, it might be mild in most cases but it's the one's that require hospitalization yet alone intensive care that are the real issue, those cause a surge of admittances that when uncontrolled can lead to the system being overwhelmed and collapsing leading to collateral damage not just covid related but NON-covid as well.

Lockdowns aren't 100% perfect what we need though is a damn vaccine but this is likely still a number of months away. In the meantime if there's a need for restrictions it should involve at least keeping shops open if possible and limiting the amount of people in one location. I honestly can see them in the next few days modifiying level 4 to be a bit more distinct from level 5 as the 2 atm are practically identical looking but the only way we can control this is quite simply staying away from one another as much as possible.

end of the road

completedit wrote: »

Good reply but what about the fact that people die all the time. Also a fat oaf got it n

people do die all the time yes, however we generally do what we can to try and prevent deaths where possible, via laws, initiatives, safety features, treatments/cures when possible, etc.
all those won't work 100% of the time of course, but where and when they do work, they make a huge difference.
the issue ultimately with covid is that it causes issues regardless of whether people get it or not, and those issues if allowed to go unchecked themselves can do serious damage.
that is why a lot of countries, probably most really, are trying to take a balanced approach on things because there are competing issues as well and everything has to be balanced out as much as is possible to try and minimise over all damage, unfortunately there is no escaping unscathed from covid 19, it's about damage limitation, what damage we are more likely to prevent then other damage, etc.
as i said in the relaxation of restrictions thread, this whole thing is essentially an experiment where countries and people are learning on the job, which is far from ideal of course, but there was no possibility of a dress rehersel for this unfortunately.

Thierry12

thenightman wrote: »

EU have reserved 200m doses and Pfizer, who are leading the vaccine race, have a large presence here and have had for decades. I'd say when a vaccine is available and being mass produced at least our vulnerable and healthcare staff won't be long getting access. Joe and Jane Bloggs might be waiting a while alright.

Why give health care staff when these vaccines dont have sterilising immunity and you can still be contagious

Should be elderly and vulnerable getting first, health care staff should be later on.

irishblessing

completedit wrote: »

Good reply but what about the fact that people die all the time. Also a fat oaf got it n

They don't usually overrun our hospitals.

Loafing Oaf

Infini wrote: »

but the only way we can control this is quite simply staying away from one another as much as possible.

So what does this mean in practice for covid policy after the virus is (hopefully) suppressed down to very low levels again through lockdown/level 4-5. Would pubs, eat-in restaurants, even schools have to stay closed until (again hopefully) we get a vaccine?

rahmalec

I say go for zero COVID. At least then I will be able to do my job (events industry).

Charles Babbage

thenightman wrote: »

EU have reserved 200m doses and Pfizer, who are leading the vaccine race, have a large presence here and have had for decades. I'd say when a vaccine is available and being mass produced at least our vulnerable and healthcare staff won't be long getting access. Joe and Jane Bloggs might be waiting a while alright.

I think this vaccine needs 2 doses, so this would allow all over 65s and health care workers and younger people with illnesses be vaccinated.

As Ireland as a young population it would get a smaller proportion than some.

I'd say they could follow up with 50-65 year olds in the Spring and then do the whole population over the summer.

Of course, it is unclear exactly how well the vaccine works or how long it lasts for, but it would be big improvement either way.

You could see the whole population getting a different vaccine after a year or so if one of the others turns out to be more effective.

Away With The Fairies

rahmalec wrote: »

I say go for zero COVID. At least then I will be able to do my job (events industry).

It's so sad to see the entertainment industry completely ruined.

Rodin

Lock the place down. By land, air and sea.... get rid of it from the island then let's get back to living

Travel is a luxury

Rodin

Thierry12 wrote: »

Why give health care staff when these vaccines dont have sterilising immunity and you can still be contagious

Should be elderly and vulnerable getting first, health care staff should be later on.

And who'll look after said elderly and vulnerable when the health staff are off sick?

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Pretty much this.

We will keep locking down until there is a vaccine or our resources run out.

In an extremely PC, social media, hysteria driven world, we have decided that a mild illness is worth destroying the world for.

It's not a mild illness. It can kill, it can debilitate. You are been completely disingenuous. If you seen what I've seen this virus do to people, it would soften your cough.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not a mild illness. It can kill, it can debilitate. You are been completely disingenuous. If you seen what I've seen this virus do to people, it would soften your cough.

It’s a mild illness for the majority if they know they have it.

For a minority it’s a serious illness, of which you see in a concentrated effect due to your elevated position in society.

Mane terrorised Everton earlier, 2 weeks after a positive test

UrbanFret

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'd like to see an all Ireland approach and go for zero covid. Why play with people's lives?

Clearly you are not overly familiar with the northern Ireland situation and the problems getting any kind of agreement or cooperation within the loyalist tradition . They would sooner die than be alligned with the south. Ain't gonna happen. Zero covid is a pipedream an unachievable one at that.

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s a mild illness for the majority if they know they have it.

For a minority it’s a serious illness, of which you see in a concentrated effect due to your elevated position in society.

Mane terrorised Everton earlier, 2 weeks after a positive test

Define mild for me Finty?

Like what is this mildness you speak of it?
Would you categorise HIV/AIDS as a mild illness?

bush

PTH2009 wrote: »

Think we should scrap this living with covid and do up a new plan

there's not much living with covid in it

Living with covid is being out of work depressed out of your head for a lot of people.

Rodin

A stay in ICU is the most expensive night's stay in the country.

Need to limit the numbers in those beds.

The higher the Covid cases, the more healthcare staff will be off sick... we need our hospitals staffed

CIARAN_BOYLE

Thierry12 wrote: »

Why give health care staff when these vaccines dont have sterilising immunity and you can still be contagious

Should be elderly and vulnerable getting first, health care staff should be later on.

One in 5 Irish cases are health care workers.

I think it's obvious that they get it in such a high number that they deserve as much protection as they can get.

If it does actually provide immunity to a % of people giving it to health care workers is the most bang for our bukc in terms of breaking the chain of transmission and reducing the R number.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

Define mild for me Finty?

Like what is this mildness you speak of it?
Would you categorise HIV/AIDS as a mild illness?

The mildness is the people who are asymptotic Dazzler.

Or the soccer player who scored a goal this afternoon about a fortnight after a positive test.

Is the median age of death from HIV/AIDS in the late 80s?

Is AIDS/HIV most vulnerable victims residing in nursing homes?

Away With The Fairies

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's not a mild illness. It can kill, it can debilitate. You are been completely disingenuous. If you seen what I've seen this virus do to people, it would soften your cough.

Do you work in healthcare? And what have you seen it do to people?

BigPineapple

Maybe I'm missing trick here.

All this yo-yo lock down, open up and lock down is not going to work in the long run. It is causing havoc with people's planning for anything long term.

It need to be tackled based on the root of the problem. Hear me out, why not lock down the country for a period until tests consistently give zero case for 'x' number of weeks consecutively (insert what is considered a safe number here). Simultaneously, any one coming into the island of Ireland must isolate for 14 days (set a plan in place by using a designated hotel/location at all entry points into the country) and also keep the contact tracing program going.

The lock down will stop the spread in country and automatic forced isolation on entry to country will stop the virus' existence to spread also. It is not hard to imagine that once the virus is 'gone' from community and there are no more imported cases, our lives can go resume to normal in full without the fear of further contraction if the government keep up with enforcing forced isolation on entry to Ireland. All activities therefore goes back to normal and our economy will move again.

(Yes I recognised that Northern Ireland will be an issue but the fact that they are on an island which makes it easier to implement the same compare to mainland Europe and is 'small' [relatively speaking] compare to mainland UK, it might not be that hard for the Irish government to convince UK to give Northern Ireland funding to do this experiment at the same time). Airline industry will suffer too in the short term - but they are suffering now anyway. Plus it doesn't mean people can't travel to Ireland, it just mean they will be cooped up in a hotel room for 2 weeks before they are allowed to be out.

All in all, it will be painful in the short term socially and financially to implement (We're already facing this painful situation as is anyway and the current government plan doesn't have an exit strategy). The long term benefit is that everyone can enjoy life again thereafter if you take out the source of virus entering the community.

Extra plan: If the government want to be extremely careful, they a could also devise a plan to test everyone in the country when near completing the lockdown as a final check.

This to me would be a good strategy. Everyone moves at the same pace, know the same target, everyone suffer once (hopefully) and keep virus out of country permanently.

Charles Babbage

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

One in 5 Irish cases are health care workers.

I think it's obvious that they get it in such a high number that they deserve as much protection as they can get.

If it does actually provide immunity to a % of people giving it to health care workers is the most bang for our bukc in terms of breaking the chain of transmission and reducing the R number.

It is worth noting that the average age of health care fatalities internationally is in their 50s.

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The mildness is the people who are asymptotic Dazzler.

Or the soccer player who scored a goal this afternoon about a fortnight after a positive test.

Is the median age of death from HIV/AIDS in the late 80s?

Is AIDS/HIV most vulnerable victims residing in nursing homes?

Only 20% are asymptomatic, so 48k cases, that's only 9.6k mild and 38.5k not mild?

Tell me how

Deleted User wrote: »

Pretty much this.

We will keep locking down until there is a vaccine or our resources run out.

In an extremely PC, social media, hysteria driven world, we have decided that a mild illness is worth destroying the world for.

Let's be clear.

The non-medically qualified/experienced/responsible people have largely come to the conclusion that the medically qualified/experienced/responsible people aren't the ones to listen to when planning how to deal with the biggest public health crisis of our lifetimes (most of us anyway).

Wanderer78

Tell me how wrote:

The non-medically qualified/experienced/responsible people have largely come to the conclusion that the medically qualified/experienced/responsible people aren't the ones to listen to when planning how to deal with the biggest public health crisis of our lifetimes (most of us anyway).

I'm actually very grateful that professionals such as viralogists take the time to post their knowledge on boards, they simply mustn't be sleeping at the moment, to share this information with us, as the msm and our governments simply cannot be trusted anymore!

Chivito550

BigPineapple wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing trick here.

All this yo-yo lock down, open up and lock down is not going to work in the long run. It is causing havoc with people's planning for anything long term.

It need to be tackled based on the root of the problem. Hear me out, why not lock down the country for a period until tests consistently give zero case for 'x' number of weeks consecutively (insert what is considered a safe number here). Simultaneously, any one coming into the island of Ireland must isolate for 14 days (set a plan in place by using a designated hotel/location at all entry points into the country) and also keep the contact tracing program going.

The lock down will stop the spread in country and automatic forced isolation on entry to country will stop the virus' existence to spread also. It is not hard to imagine that once the virus is 'gone' from community and there are no more imported cases, our lives can go resume to normal in full without the fear of further contraction if the government keep up with enforcing forced isolation on entry to Ireland. All activities therefore goes back to normal and our economy will move again.

(Yes I recognised that Northern Ireland will be an issue but the fact that they are on an island which makes it easier to implement the same compare to mainland Europe and is 'small' [relatively speaking] compare to mainland UK, it might not be that hard for the Irish government to convince UK to give Northern Ireland funding to do this experiment at the same time). Airline industry will suffer too in the short term - but they are suffering now anyway. Plus it doesn't mean people can't travel to Ireland, it just mean they will be cooped up in a hotel room for 2 weeks before they are allowed to be out.

All in all, it will be painful in the short term socially and financially to implement (We're already facing this painful situation as is anyway and the current government plan doesn't have an exit strategy). The long term benefit is that everyone can enjoy life again thereafter if you take out the source of virus entering the community.

Extra plan: If the government want to be extremely careful, they a could also devise a plan to test everyone in the country when near completing the lockdown as a final check.

This to me would be a good strategy. Everyone moves at the same pace, know the same target, everyone suffer once (hopefully) and keep virus out of country permanently.

Sounds like a science-fiction movie.