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Exit Strategy

Loafing Oaf

I think this question deserves a thread of its own, apologies if the mods don't agree.

So assuming the country moves to Level 5/lockdown over the next week, at what point and in what manner should we move out of that stage?

Is Zero Covid a realistic target, and if not are the sort of numbers we reached in early summer good enough to start easing restrictions?

Do we do a piecemeal relaxation of restrictions like we did then, assuming there is no significant rise in cases, until everything is opened up? Or do some things (like pubs?) have to stay closed until we get a vaccine?

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Deeper Blue

Unless there's some actual enforcement of restrictions there is no exit strategy other than a vaccine

CIARAN_BOYLE

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think this question deserves a thread of its own, apologies if the mods don't agree.

So assuming the country moves to Level 5/lockdown over the next week, at what point and in what manner should we move out of that stage?

Is Zero Covid a realistic target, and if not are the sort of numbers we reached in early summer good enough to start easing restrictions?

Do we do a piecemeal relaxation of restrictions like we did then, assuming there is no significant rise in cases, until everything is opened up? Or do some things (like pubs?) have to stay closed until we get a vaccine?

I hope that they will decide there's a certain level of cases they are happy with and that there's a level of restrictions that will produce a steady state with a R0 of one when we get there.

The other option would be to yoyo restrictions up and down based on case numbers.

That would be 6 weeks of level now. 6 weeks of relaxation in which they edge down the levels. Then 9-15 where the virus reseeds across the community and the numbers get out of hand. Then more restrictions again.

Ubbquittious

I think the yoyo scenario is the most likely we will see. They'll be hoping a vaccine will be available in the new year

Kermit.de.frog

If we go to level 5 getting out of it will be in steps. Getting back to where we are now unless some miraculous collapse in cases occurs I'd imagine 10 - 12 weeks.

Unfortunately the 2 weeks squandered will cost dearly in terms of Christmas I reckon. The really should have bitten the bullet when advised previously.

GazzaL

The most realistic exit strategy is that the public won't play along with the utter nonsense being touted by NPHET and will just get on with life regardless. NPHET have no strategy, never mind an exit strategy. They will just call for lockdowns ad infinitum.

[Deleted User]

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If we go to level 5 getting out of it will be in steps. Getting back to where we are now unless some miraculous collapse in cases occurs I'd imagine 10 - 12 weeks.

Unfortunately the 2 weeks squandered will cost dearly in terms of Christmas I reckon. The really should have bitten the bullet when advised previously.

To where we are now??

salamiii

there will be no safe vaccine or enough vaccine for 2 more years you have to hope as winter comes and people stay indoors.it doe not get worsethe covid stays in the air for hours.so you have to decide will you go to a pub a wedding or anywhere people are talking loudly or singing or take a flight or take public transport or a cruise or eat out. deaths have dropped as people wear masks eventuality people will need better n95 or kn 95 masks and eye protection then there's a financhil cost unemployment homelessness.buisness shutting down hospital coss

[Deleted User]

GazzaL wrote: »

The most realistic exit strategy is that the public won't play along with the utter nonsense being touted by NPHET and will just get on with life regardless. NPHET have no strategy, never mind an exit strategy. They will just call for lockdowns ad infinitum.

Pretty much this.

We will keep locking down until there is a vaccine or our resources run out.

In an extremely PC, social media, hysteria driven world, we have decided that a mild illness is worth destroying the world for.

cannotlogin

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but is the idea that everyone knows people will move at Christmas, even the people who haven't seen family since March, so we address it now to reduce the numbers at much as possible because no matter what the government /NPHET do, there will be a huge surge post Christmas. By not acting now, the problem will be compounded by the Christmas surge.

By locking people in between now and Christmas, people are less likely to spread it when they do move at Christmas & they will be exposed to less people between now and then.

Once Spring comes, it will naturally reduce because with an natural reduction in the need to gather indoors due to improvement in the weather.

Away With The Fairies

I'd like to see an all Ireland approach and go for zero covid. Why play with people's lives?

Ubbquittious

Deleted User wrote: »

Pretty much this.

We will keep locking down until there is a vaccine or our resources run out.

In an extremely PC, social media, hysteria driven world, we have decided that a mild illness is worth destroying the world for.

There is nothing being destroyed. What are you blathering on about?

[Deleted User]

Ubbquittious wrote: »

There is nothing being destroyed. What are you blathering on about?

Economies, livelihoods, lives, mental health???

MrStuffins

[Deleted User] wrote: »

lives

By this, do you mean those who have died after contacting Covid?

[Deleted User]

GazzaL wrote: »

The most realistic exit strategy is that the public won't play along with the utter nonsense being touted by NPHET and will just get on with life regardless. NPHET have no strategy, never mind an exit strategy. They will just call for lockdowns ad infinitum.

The idiot members of the public you mean.

The majorly of people understand the dangers of this virus and are happy to do what it takes. We need severe fines for those who think the restrictions don’t apply to them also, let’s see how brave they are when faced when being hit in the pocket.

Loafing Oaf

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

a
The other option would be to yoyo restrictions up and down based on case numbers.

That would be 6 weeks of level now. 6 weeks of relaxation in which they edge down the levels. Then 9-15 where the virus reseeds across the community and the numbers get out of hand. Then more restrictions again.

But surely this can't be the official strategy, even if the government and NPHET privately believe it is what is most likely to happen.

When asked at the press conference unveiling the new plan "What happens after we have suppressed the virus to very low levels," surely it won't be good enough for Tony Holohan to say "We start gradually opening things up, and keep opening them up as long as cases (apparently) stay low"? Because that's what we did the last time and look where we are now.

Here's Leo highlighting the need for a more detailed and credible exit strategy this time round, although he doesn't really spell out what it should be.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/health-officials-say-coronavirus-out-of-control-and-warn-of-2-500-cases-a-day-by-end-of-month-1.4382347

Hellrazer

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'd like to see an all Ireland approach and go for zero covid. Why play with people's lives?

Zero covid is impossible without a vaccine.

Its definitely not possible with lockdowns.

[Deleted User]

MrStuffins wrote: »

By this, do you mean those who have died after contacting Covid?

Nope, all of the people who will die due to lack of treatments, screenings and the recession that will follow.

pjohnson

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Pretty much this.

We will keep locking down until there is a vaccine or our resources run out.

In an extremely PC, social media, hysteria driven world, we have decided that a mild illness is worth destroying the world for.

Ah so it "PC" to blame now

Dravokivich

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Pretty much this.

We will keep locking down until there is a vaccine or our resources run out.

In an extremely PC, social media, hysteria driven world, we have decided that a mild illness is worth destroying the world for.

Mild illness? There's people who can't walk anymore due to this mild illness.

[Deleted User]

Dravokivich wrote: »

Mild illness? There's people who can't walk anymore due to this mild illness.

How many? 1 in a million? Probably even less...

completedit

Dravokivich wrote: »

Mild illness? There's people who can't walk anymore due to this mild illness.

People. Some people. It's called anecdotal evidence. I once watched a guy on that morning show with Piers Morgan who lost his literal face after he got a bad dose of the flu.

I understand your concerns. I do get it. This is a new virus. It's uncertain. But we face risk everyday. How can people not see this? If you think we are locking down so nobody gets the virus at this point you're mistaken. The lockdown are so the health services don't crumble... Allegededly. Its absolutely flabbergasting that coming into November, 8 months later, we have people like yourself who can't or don't want to see the wood from the trees.

It almost feels like people were more rational earlier on, I suppose both sides have become more entrenched in their positions over the last few months.

I don't mind people adopting a let's try help people live approach. I mean it's obvious we should do that. But the elephant in the room is WE Are All Going To Die. There is no good time to die. How do we have a situation whereby we have people wanting the most draconian measures introduced so that we can give some people more time so that they can die from something else. It sounds abbhorent and I've expressed it awfully, but do you not get that? Death is the great equaliser and will happen to us all. Why death from a natural virus is being treated like some sort of great indignity I don't know. I'm sorry for anybody who has died. It's natural to think "if it wasn't for the virus" they'd still be with us. But we never stopped living because there was tragedy unfolding before, why do we start now?
Where are the messages for people to stay healthy, retain a good weight, not to smoke etc. Nowhere to be seen! Ruining the economy is not some emotionally detached outlook. It's a call to realise the serious impact destroying the economy will have on people's lives. Hope is all we've got. You deprive people of that hope, existence starts to become miserable. I'd rather get the virus and croke it.

To quote Joe Biden "come on man"

Multipass

Hellrazer wrote: »

Zero covid is impossible without a vaccine.

Its definitely not possible with lockdowns.

zero covid is absolutely not possible with a vaccine. The vaccines being developed ameliorate symptoms, nothing more. There will still be people catching Covid, and there will still be people dying from covid. The question is will we abandon all of the current measures we’re taking to save them.

Hellrazer

Multipass wrote: »

zero covid is absolutely not possible with a vaccine. The vaccines being developed ameliorate symptoms, nothing more. There will still be people catching Covid, and there will still be people dying from covid. The question is will we abandon all of the current measures we’re taking to save them.

I agree with you. I personally don't think zero covid is possible at all. However a vaccine might allow a glimmer of hope.

NPHETs whole goal is for zero covid but they want it at all costs including destroying our economy and country.

They don't have any plan to achieve this other than lockdowns which even WHO said doesn't work ..never mind an exit plan.

They want to lock us down until this virus goes away and that's not going to happen any time soon.

Pardon the pun but we have to "Live with covid"

Probably forever like the flu or common cold.

Panic Stations

We're going to be in and out of lockdowns until there's a vaccine.

I'm not sure I see the logic in another complete lockdown. We now know that the majority of cases of coming from private households.

Sure it will bring down case number again but in 5/6 months time we'll be in the same situation again.

I can't understand why the government is panicking to go straight to level 5 when we just implemented a ban on visitors to households a few days ago. Surely give that a week or two to kick in and see where we're at then.

GazzaL

Erick Sweet Gourd wrote: »

The idiot members of the public you mean.

The majorly of people understand the dangers of this virus and are happy to do what it takes. We need severe fines for those who think the restrictions don’t apply to them also, let’s see how brave they are when faced when being hit in the pocket.

The majority of people are aware of the risks and are getting on with their lives safely.

There are over 70s and people with underlying health conditions that have been getting up every morning throughout the pandemic to go to work and meet people.

#ChooseLife

end of the road

GazzaL wrote: »

The most realistic exit strategy is that the public won't play along with the utter nonsense being touted by NPHET and will just get on with life regardless. NPHET have no strategy, never mind an exit strategy. They will just call for lockdowns ad infinitum.

that won't be an exit strategy as the government won't simply abolish anything because people don't play along.
what they will do instead is come down like a tonne of bricks on people, and you don't specifically need garda enforcement to do it.
very serious heavy fines that will increase the more people refuse to follow would likely be the order of the day, and an actual lock down would likely be implemented.

Deleted User wrote: »

Pretty much this.

We will keep locking down until there is a vaccine or our resources run out.

In an extremely PC, social media, hysteria driven world, we have decided that a mild illness is worth destroying the world for.

incorrect. in the real world countries have decided that a balanced approach based on minimising the spread of the virus and preventing as much issues as is realistic, is the only viable and workable approach that can be taken.
because make no mistake, there was no escaping issues and damage due to covid.

Deleted User wrote: »

Economies, livelihoods, lives, mental health???

nope.
economies were always going to suffer damage, the approach most countries are taking are designed to minimise that damage and while economies are taking a dip, the approaches are working mostly.
lively hoods were sadly always going to be damaged due to this, it was a case of how many we could realistically prevent from facing such damage.

langer91

completedit wrote: »

People. Some people. It's called anecdotal evidence. I once watched a guy on that morning show with Piers Morgan who lost his literal face after he got a bad dose of the flu.

I understand your concerns. I do get it. This is a new virus. It's uncertain. But we face risk everyday. How can people not see this? If you think we are locking down so nobody gets the virus at this point you're mistaken. The lockdown are so the health services don't crumble... Allegededly. Its absolutely flabbergasting that coming into November, 8 months later, we have people like yourself who can't or don't want to see the wood from the trees.

It almost feels like people were more rational earlier on, I suppose both sides have become more entrenched in their positions over the last few months.

I don't mind people adopting a let's try help people live approach. I mean it's obvious we should do that. But the elephant in the room is WE Are All Going To Die. There is no good time to die. How do we have a situation whereby we have people wanting the most draconian measures introduced so that we can give some people more time so that they can die from something else. It sounds abbhorent and I've expressed it awfully, but do you not get that? Death is the great equaliser and will happen to us all. Why death from a natural virus is being treated like some sort of great indignity I don't know. I'm sorry for anybody who has died. It's natural to think "if it wasn't for the virus" they'd still be with us. But we never stopped living because there was tragedy unfolding before, why do we start now?
Where are the messages for people to stay healthy, retain a good weight, not to smoke etc. Nowhere to be seen! Ruining the economy is not some emotionally detached outlook. It's a call to realise the serious impact destroying the economy will have on people's lives. Hope is all we've got. You deprive people of that hope, existence starts to become miserable. I'd rather get the virus and croke it.

To quote Joe Biden "come on man"

You sounded like Donald Trump until that last line

end of the road

Deleted User wrote: »

How many? 1 in a million? Probably even less...

doesn't matter, it still debunks your mild illness statement, which wouldn't be hard to do anyway.

completedit wrote: »

People. Some people. It's called anecdotal evidence. I once watched a guy on that morning show with Piers Morgan who lost his literal face after he got a bad dose of the flu.

I understand your concerns. I do get it. This is a new virus. It's uncertain. But we face risk everyday. How can people not see this? If you think we are locking down so nobody gets the virus at this point you're mistaken. The lockdown are so the health services don't crumble... Allegededly. Its absolutely flabbergasting that coming into November, 8 months later, we have people like yourself who can't or don't want to see the wood from the trees.

It almost feels like people were more rational earlier on, I suppose both sides have become more entrenched in their positions over the last few months.

I don't mind people adopting a let's try help people live approach. I mean it's obvious we should do that. But the elephant in the room is WE Are All Going To Die. There is no good time to die. How do we have a situation whereby we have people wanting the most draconian measures introduced so that we can give some people more time so that they can die from something else. It sounds abbhorent and I've expressed it awfully, but do you not get that? Death is the great equaliser and will happen to us all. Why death from a natural virus is being treated like some sort of great indignity I don't know. I'm sorry for anybody who has died. It's natural to think "if it wasn't for the virus" they'd still be with us. But we never stopped living because there was tragedy unfolding before, why do we start now?
Where are the messages for people to stay healthy, retain a good weight, not to smoke etc. Nowhere to be seen! Ruining the economy is not some emotionally detached outlook. It's a call to realise the serious impact destroying the economy will have on people's lives. Hope is all we've got. You deprive people of that hope, existence starts to become miserable. I'd rather get the virus and croke it.

To quote Joe Biden "come on man"

all of those messages are already out there and have been for years, that is where they are.
the issue is abiding by those messages and ultimately delivering their outcomes take a long time and are not going to ultimately help in a situation where immediot action is needed.
the economy is not being destroyed or ruined for the most part, certainly there is a dip in it but that was always going to happen, and it would likely have been way way more then a dip if not for our approach, which is about minimising the inevitable and it has mostly worked in doing that from what i can see.
the problem you and others of similar views to you have is that you have no actual viable solutions for dealing with all of the competing issues, just statements that have already been taken into account within our approach or that people are already aware of, but which don't really have any actual relevancy in terms of covid and all of the issues it can cause whether people even get it or not.

GazzaL wrote: »

The majority of people are aware of the risks and are getting on with their lives safely.

There are over 70s and people with underlying health conditions that have been getting up every morning throughout the pandemic to go to work and meet people.

#ChooseLife

exactly, which in turn validates our approach, because they can do that with some comfort that there is some protection in place for them from the virus so that they can go out.
the risks won't be removed which they were never going to be, but if some people had their way, those pensioners would have no protection what soever from the virus.

completedit

end of the road wrote: »

doesn't matter, it still debunks your mild illness statement, which wouldn't be hard to do anyway.

all of those messages are already out there and have been for years, that is where they are.
the issue is abiding by those messages and ultimately delivering their outcomes take a long time and are not going to ultimately help in a situation where immediot action is needed.
the economy is not being destroyed or ruined for the most part, certainly there is a dip in it but that was always going to happen, and it would likely have been way way more then a dip if not for our approach, which is about minimising the inevitable and it has mostly worked in doing that from what i can see.
the problem you and others of similar views to you have is that you have no actual viable solutions for dealing with all of the competing issues, just statements that have already been taken into account within our approach or that people are already aware of, but which don't really have any actual relevancy in terms of covid and all of the issues it can cause whether people even get it or not.

exactly, which in turn validates our approach, because they can do that with some comfort that there is some protection in place for them from the virus so that they can go out.
the risks won't be removed which they were never going to be, but if some people had their way, those pensioners would have no protection what soever from the virus.

Good reply but what about the fact that people die all the time. Also a fat oaf got it n

Del Griffith

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'd like to see an all Ireland approach and go for zero covid. Why play with people's lives?

That is playing with people's lives