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The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

ShineOn7

Let’s round up the Republic’s population to 5 million, it’s only 100,000 shy of this number

The amount of people expected to get it (whether they show symptoms or not) is anything from 30% to 70%, depending on the source you read. Huge differences there but let’s say 50% because it’s somewhere in between

That’s 2.5 million who’ll get it (remember; not all will show symptoms)

Reported mortality rates on this have been 0.5 to 2%. It’s just too early to tell

Let’s be optimistic and say 1%

1% of 2.5 million is 25,000 Irish fatalities in the Republic

This is more than double how many the HSE worker doing the Ask Me Anything thinks in his Best Case Scenario. He mentioned 10,000 people in this instance

So hopefully he’s actually right in this case and it’s “only” 10,000

For this to happen;

- The amount of carriers of this will have to be much lower than 50%, and

- mortality rate would need to be closer to 0.5%

How does 10,000 compare to a normal 12 months in Ireland when you combine the pneumonia and flu fatalities?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

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[Deleted User]

Blut2 wrote: »

Its one of the world's oldest, and most well respected, academic/scientific journals. Its pretty hard to find any source more reputable/trusted.

That data just confirms what more and more people are gradually accepting - for under 65s this just isn't any more dangerous than normal 'flu'.

The ifr for flu in 50-65 year olds is 0.01%. 0.14% is a bit larger than that.

Blut2

Its one of the world's oldest, and most well respected, academic/scientific journals. Its pretty hard to find any source more reputable/trusted.

That data just confirms what more and more people are gradually accepting - for under 65s this just isn't any more dangerous than normal 'flu'.

ShineOn7

How good is the Lancet's track record?

0.0092 IFR, 20 - 49 age group

IFR of 0.14% in the 50-65 group

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30584-3.pdf

ShineOn7

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Are you saying that if 2% of the population have had Covid, your chance of getting it is 1 in 50? If so, that does not make sense. You can only get it from someone who currently has it, not someone who had it a couple of months ago but have fully recovered. If there are 10,000 active cases then your chance of getting it could be said to be around 1 in 500. Of course, the prevalence of it isn't even across the populations - you could come into contact with 500 people, none of whom have it and therefore your chance of getting it is practically zero (leaving aside it being live on a surface which you then touch and then bring to your mouth/nose).

Thanks for the input. Few Qs:

How many active cases have we at the moment?
Isn't it extremely hard to work that out given there's Asymptomatic cases out there, said to be 20% of all cases? (Source: John Campbell)
And finally: if you were to look at all the data, what do you think the odds are of the average person who is taking all the advised precautions of contracting it?

igCorcaigh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Summarised on this Twitter thread. Is 1.4% since august

https://mobile.twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1321479437691609088

Whatever that tweet was, it has been deleted.

igCorcaigh

blanch152 wrote: »

I know someone with Long Covid who is now in the care of a cardiologist. She was young and healthy and only had mild symptoms, never hospitalised with the illness.

There is long covid twitter account, they estimate the rate of 10%, but I don't know how.

https://twitter.com/LongCovidSOS/status/1326553802254639105?s=19

Pete_Cavan

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I just put some stats into a % calculator there

66,247 cases so far as % of the 4.9 million population of the Republic comes to 1.35%

The official amount of cases doesn't cover the amount of Asymptomatic cases. John Campbell now has this at 20% of all cases and we are missing many cases now and many, many cases in April

So where does this leave us in terms of risk analysis in terms of the average person picking it up?

Let's say the amount of Asymptomatic cases conservatively brings it upto 2% risk, this still seems quite high doesn't it?

So we've a 1 in 50 chance of catching it even if we take precautions?

Or am I reading the data way wrong?

Would love the thoughts of the more analytical minds here

Are you saying that if 2% of the population have had Covid, your chance of getting it is 1 in 50? If so, that does not make sense. You can only get it from someone who currently has it, not someone who had it a couple of months ago but have fully recovered. If there are 10,000 active cases then your chance of getting it could be said to be around 1 in 500. Of course, the prevalence of it isn't even across the populations - you could come into contact with 500 people, none of whom have it and therefore your chance of getting it is practically zero (leaving aside it being live on a surface which you then touch and then bring to your mouth/nose).

Those who have had it and have antibodies are less likely to be active spreaders at this moment so that should be factored into any such calculation of the chance of getting Covid. Obviously there are lots of differences of opinions on antibodies, how long they last, etc. which means there is no definitive way of factoring in recovered cases, I dont know enough about it and am not interested in going down that rabbit hole. Then there is the question of natural immunity but if such a thing exists, does it prevent those people from spreading it? Thats another one not worth getting into.

IAMAMORON

blanch152 wrote: »

I know someone with Long Covid who is now in the care of a cardiologist. She was young and healthy and only had mild symptoms, never hospitalised with the illness.

When was she tested for Covid 19?

ShineOn7

blanch152 wrote: »

I know someone with Long Covid who is now in the care of a cardiologist. She was young and healthy and only had mild symptoms, never hospitalised with the illness.

Fúcking hell. Sorry to hear

The unpredictability of this thing is still crazy. I started this thread so we can better work out some of the statistics of it and what they mean if you're Irish

There seems to be a level of "flip of a coin" luck with this if you contract it that I don't think we've seen with a virus before

blanch152

IAMAMORON wrote: »

This concept of " long Covid " is garbage at the highest level. It should not be getting spoofed around.

By all means, if you end up on a respirator for a week, you are going to feel pretty sick for a good time afterwards. But the media are latching on to this and getting fantastical about it. Given all the shight that gets talked, I think people really need to adopt the concept with skepticism. I personally don't believe it is a real thing.

I am not saying different people are not affected by the virus in different ways, but I would not be surprised if it is a non diagnosable fallacy dreamt up. It is borderline scaremongering.

I know someone with Long Covid who is now in the care of a cardiologist. She was young and healthy and only had mild symptoms, never hospitalised with the illness.

ShineOn7

I just put some stats into a % calculator there

66,247 cases so far as % of the 4.9 million population of the Republic comes to 1.35%

The official amount of cases doesn't cover the amount of Asymptomatic cases. John Campbell now has this at 20% of all cases and we are missing many cases now and many, many cases in April

So where does this leave us in terms of risk analysis in terms of the average person picking it up?

Let's say the amount of Asymptomatic cases conservatively brings it upto 2% risk, this still seems quite high doesn't it?

So we've a 1 in 50 chance of catching it even if we take precautions?

Or am I reading the data way wrong?

Would love the thoughts of the more analytical minds here

McGiver

IAMAMORON wrote:

This concept of " long Covid " is garbage at the highest level. It should not be getting spoofed around.

Wrong.

Long term sequelae is being studied. It's a real thing. Quantification pending but it doesn't seem uncommon.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30701-5/fulltext

Also, evidence appearing of autoimmune involvement in Long Covid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/health/covid-antibodies-autoimmunity.html

Not to be taken lightly. Especially by laity who present no evidence to the contrary. Or if your username is IamAmoron!

ShineOn7

IAMAMORON wrote: »

This concept of " long Covid " is garbage at the highest level. It should not be getting spoofed around.

By all means, if you end up on a respirator for a week, you are going to feel pretty sick for a good time afterwards. But the media are latching on to this and getting fantastical about it. Given all the shight that gets talked, I think people really need to adopt the concept with skepticism. I personally don't believe it is a real thing.

I am not saying different people are not affected by the virus in different ways, but I would not be surprised if it is a non diagnosable fallacy dreamt up. It is borderline scaremongering.

Long Covid is discussed in more detail here

Latest findings by Mr Analysis - the great John Campbell - says 2% of those not hospitalised with it have Long Covid

I forget the % with it in those who were hospitalised, but it's definitely not the "between 10 and 30%" screamed out by Anthoney Staines a few weeks back

It's not "garbage" by any means, but the media need to get their stats on it much better

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Amazing input RainD, thanks

Thanks, however I can’t take credit for the twitter thread, that was linked on the main thread by I can’t remember who

IAMAMORON

This concept of " long Covid " is garbage at the highest level. It should not be getting spoofed around.

By all means, if you end up on a respirator for a week, you are going to feel pretty sick for a good time afterwards. But the media are latching on to this and getting fantastical about it. Given all the shight that gets talked, I think people really need to adopt the concept with skepticism. I personally don't believe it is a real thing.

I am not saying different people are not affected by the virus in different ways, but I would not be surprised if it is a non diagnosable fallacy dreamt up. It is borderline scaremongering.

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

Summarised on this Twitter thread. Is 1.4% since august

https://mobile.twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1321479437691609088

Amazing input RainD, thanks

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Ah I think get you now, thanks

In terms of needing hospitalization if you test positive in Ireland and are aged 35-44 (and using my previous numbers), the % chance of it is 3.69% right?

Summarised on this Twitter thread. Is 1.4% since august

https://mobile.twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1321479437691609088

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

If 100 people went to hospital with covid and 8 of them were in the 35-44 age bracket, 8% of those admitted were 35-44. That’s the first figure

If 200 people age 35-44 tested positive and 8 of them went to hospital, 4%. That’s the second figure.

Same 8 people, 2 different percentages, both right, just measuring different things

Ah I think get you now, thanks

In terms of needing hospitalization if you test positive in Ireland and are aged 35-44 (and using my previous numbers), the % chance of it is 3.69% right?

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm still confused :pac:

So the first one = those who didn't test positive for Covid

And the second one = those who did?

If 100 people went to hospital with covid and 8 of them were in the 35-44 age bracket, 8% of those admitted were 35-44. That’s the first figure

If 200 people age 35-44 tested positive and 8 of them went to hospital, 4%. That’s the second figure.

Same 8 people, 2 different percentages, both right, just measuring different things

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

On page 8 the7.99% is the percentage of total hospitalisations that were in 35-44 year olds, on the next page it’s % of 35 to 44 year olds who have been hospitalised

I'm still confused

So the first one = those who didn't test positive for Covid

And the second one = those who did?

ArthurDayne

ShineOn7 wrote: »

John Campbell says in a video this week that the IFR worldwide is now at 0.3%

It was at 0.5% just 6-8 weeks ago and I'll take any bit of good news going this week

So IFR @ 0.3% = 3 times more now more lethal than the Flu (IFR @ 0.1%), when back in May is was thought to be upto 14 times more lethal (source: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-covid-19-isnt-the-flu)

It's still important to remember that, last I checked, Covid is vastly more contagious than the Flu. There's also Long Covid, which seems to be reported more and more lately

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDlNdit0hKA

One does wonder why, if the public health officials are so deathly afraid of the effects of so-called ‘Long Covid’ and tell young people to be scared of it, why do they still advocate keeping schools open?

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Can anyone with an analytical eye give this a look?

On page 8 of this PDF it gives the % amount of those hospitalized in Ireland with Covid in different age brackets

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20201027%20-%20website.pdf

But on the next page it gives completely different % numbers

Example:

Page 8 says of those aged 35-44, 7.99% have been hospitalized. Which sounds high for that age bracket

But on the next page, for the same age bracket, it says 3.69% have been hospitalized. This one seems more realistic

Or am I just reading page 8 wrong and I need more tea?

On page 8 the7.99% is the percentage of total hospitalisations that were in 35-44 year olds, on the next page it’s % of 35 to 44 year olds who have been hospitalised

ShineOn7

Can anyone with an analytical eye give this a look?

On page 8 of this PDF it gives the % amount of those hospitalized in Ireland with Covid in different age brackets

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20201027%20-%20website.pdf

But on the next page it gives completely different % numbers

Example:

Page 8 says of those aged 35-44, 7.99% have been hospitalized. Which sounds high for that age bracket

But on the next page, for the same age bracket, it says 3.69% have been hospitalized. This one seems more realistic

Or am I just reading page 8 wrong and I need more tea?

ShineOn7

Just muted someone on social media for comparing the stats of automobile accidents to Covid statistics

They weren't someone I'd have deemed as stupid until today either

ShineOn7

Blut2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1317582515192975360?s=21

Some topical not great maths of it all for Ireland this week.

Not what 99% of this thread has been about at all

There's dozens of threads you'll find more people to bite

Blut2

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1317582515192975360?s=21

Some topical not great maths of it all for Ireland this week.

2ndcoming

Sure they are :rolleyes:

ShineOn7

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But the WHO thinks we have 750m infected. And 1m dead. So three times the flu seems not off by magnitudes anyway.

I don't put much faith in WHO anymore

They're just a political chess piece of China's at this stage

ShineOn7

McGiver wrote: »

Flu IFR is 0.04 if you add asymptomatic estimated...

We can't really base calculations on this though. Asymptomatic stats on Covid have had varying wild swings in guesses since April

I found another article here https://theconversation.com/now-everyones-a-statistician-heres-what-armchair-covid-experts-are-getting-wrong-144494

First, if we compare the typical flu IFR of 0.1% with the most optimistic COVID-19 estimate of 0.25%, then COVID-19 remains more than twice as deadly as the flu.

But there's also this and it stresses how much more infectious Covid is versus the Flu

Flu’s R₀ is about 1.3. Although COVID-19 estimates vary, its R₀ sits around a median of 2.8. Because of the way infections grow exponentially (see below), the jump from 1.3 to 2.8 means COVID-19 is vastly more infectious than flu.

CalamariFritti

But the WHO thinks we have 750m infected. And 1m dead. So three times the flu seems not off by magnitudes anyway.