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COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Masala

Today being Paddy Day 2020... when do you think we will have a ‘flu jab’ / pill / syrup that we can take to make us immune/ les likely to catch this 19 virus?.

Mod: The purpose of this thread is baked into the title - COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures - it's not a platform to push an anti vaccination agenda. If posters wish to discuss the perceived cons of vaccinations, or push various theories regarding 'the agenda' (whatever that is supposed to mean), open a thread elsewhere on it.

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tjdaly

By the time these become widely available people will have no interest in taking them.

ACitizenErased

tjdaly wrote: »

By the time these become widely available people will have no interest in taking them.

why would you think that?

Martina1991

Gael23 wrote: »

How long did it take for that 100k capacity to be reached?

Can your car go from 0 to 100 in 3 seconds?

How did you expect a national service to process 100,000 tests a week from absolute scratch when they didn't have the equipment, reagents or staff to do it.

Gael23

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/large-scale-test-and-trace-system-impossible-in-ireland-says-public-health-doctor-1020754.html?fbclid=IwAR2CgCHZG5IcEtu39ai3u5T02ovhD5JEALz094RuNowJBtdjnZelYsYJ70s

dominatinMC

tjdaly wrote: »

By the time these become widely available people will have no interest in taking them.

Okay, if you say so Tj. Reassuring to know :rolleyes:

tobefrank321

My main concerns about a vaccine now are that current vaccines in trials are predominately tested on healthy low risk individuals and that where successful they prevent these individuals developing more serious covid. The problem is the vast majority were never at risk of developing serious covid in the first place. And its unclear if it prevents them transmitting the virus on to others.

Realistically the vaccine needs to be tested significantly on high risk individuals to show it works on them and prevents serious covid.

tobefrank321

Gael23 wrote: »

Well the HSE seem incapable of getting testing right so not convinced rapid testing will happen

I kind of agree. Its almost pointless trying to stop the spread of covid now among the low risk groups.

By the time you have tested someone they already have infected numerous people and they in turn numerous others given the high rate of asymptomatic carriers. Isolating at home is a fantasy if you share a normal sized house. And we know with the increasing positivity rate we are now only confirming half of actual cases if not less.

They probably should just focus testing on high risk areas like nursing homes and hospitals and rapid testing is the key. Someone shouldn't be able to start a shift in a nursing home without a negative test for example.

hmmm

I think there's a misunderstanding of where rapid testing would be most useful. These could be used in non-HSE settings - e.g. you might be required to take a rapid test before boarding a plane. Or get tested at work once a week.

The travel/airline industry in particular is likely to push rapid testing hard next year as it could allow relatively safe travel and give people confidence, even without a vaccine. It's probably a stretch to think you might get tested before going into a restaurant, but who knows - it depends on cost, ease to administer and reliability.

Maybe some bright spark will develop a Covid status app, where your testing status and where you've been will feed into a health indicator. This has all been done in China which makes people uncomfortable, but you can see how it would help. So for example, if you are someone who has had a recent negative rapid test, you haven't been abroad to a high-risk country, and you haven't been mixing with large numbers of people you would be regarded as very unlikely to have Covid.

ACitizenErased

tobefrank321 wrote: »

My main concerns about a vaccine now are that current vaccines in trials are predominately tested on healthy low risk individuals and that where successful they prevent these individuals developing more serious covid. The problem is the vast majority were never at risk of developing serious covid in the first place. And its unclear if it prevents them transmitting the virus on to others.

Realiatically the vaccine needs to be tested significantly on high risk individuals to show it works on them and prevents serious covid.

The vaccines are being tested on people with autoimmune diseases. People with HiV/AIDs form a major part in the trials.

speckle

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The vaccines are being tested on people with autoimmune diseases. People with HiV/AIDs form a major part in the trials.

HIv is an immuno depressed state. Auto immune is the opposite, would really appreciate any links to the autoimmune side. thanks

hmmm

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/remdesivir-and-interferon-fall-flat-who-s-megastudy-covid-19-treatments

"One of the world’s biggest trials of COVID-19 therapies released its long-awaited interim results yesterday—and they’re a letdown. None of the four treatments in the Solidarity trial, which enrolled more than 11,000 patients in 400 hospitals around the globe, increased survival—not even the much-touted antiviral drug remdesivir. "

"There was still hope for remdesivir and for interferon-beta, which initially had been given in combination with ritonavir/lopinavir but was tested as a standalone drug after the Recovery data came out. But neither of those treatments lowered mortality or delayed the moment patients needed ventilation to help them breathe. The results in these two treatment arms are likely to be the most scrutinized. "

Le Bruise

hmmm wrote: »

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/remdesivir-and-interferon-fall-flat-who-s-megastudy-covid-19-treatments

"One of the world’s biggest trials of COVID-19 therapies released its long-awaited interim results yesterday—and they’re a letdown. None of the four treatments in the Solidarity trial, which enrolled more than 11,000 patients in 400 hospitals around the globe, increased survival—not even the much-touted antiviral drug remdesivir. "

"There was still hope for remdesivir and for interferon-beta, which initially had been given in combination with ritonavir/lopinavir but was tested as a standalone drug after the Recovery data came out. But neither of those treatments lowered mortality or delayed the moment patients needed ventilation to help them breathe. The results in these two treatment arms are likely to be the most scrutinized. "

Were these results expected, or is this a massive blow on the treatment side of things?

Hmmzis

Le Bruise wrote: »

Were these results expected, or is this a massive blow on the treatment side of things?

The Remdesivir results are a letdown, the NIH trial then was definitively underpowered to establish mortality benefits. Interferon is needed very early for viral control (before the dangerous inflammation has started), so the results here are not all that surprising. The other two had already been established as not helpfull.

hmmm

Le Bruise wrote: »

Were these results expected, or is this a massive blow on the treatment side of things?

Even though there is a let-down, the size of the trial and the conclusive findings means the world can move on. There is only so many trials we can have running at once (e.g. HCQ wasted so much time back in the early days).

funnydoggy

The likes of ivermetcin and SNG001 still give lots of hope though. It's a small setback but science will prevail!

Mark1916

Fingers crossed for 3rd week in November, great communication from Pfizer

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla

Sweet.Science

Mark1916 wrote: »

Fingers crossed for 3rd week in November, great communication from Pfizer

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla

Assume this will be front page news

Santy2015

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Assume this will be front page news

Hahahahahaha,
Front page news only if it was a failure

Sconsey

Mark1916 wrote: »

Fingers crossed for 3rd week in November, great communication from Pfizer

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla

Really interesting statement. The dates for potential safety approval and manuracturing capability can be fairly accurately estimated.
The date for possible vaccine effectivness approval is more of an unknown. You learn something new every day.

I guess the fact that a second wave of the virus has materialised is at least a good thing for the vaccine trials. He is cautiously hinting end of October for data availability.
But I do wonder how this will impact the vaccines that are in much earlier stages. If, for example, Pfizer, AZ and Moderna all roll out in the first half of 2021 it could end up being slim pickings for a viaccine looking to trial in early 2022. I imagine the phase 3 trials for the later vaccines will be naturally slowed down (hopefully) because of a lower incidince of the virus.

speckle

hmmm wrote: »

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/remdesivir-and-interferon-fall-flat-who-s-megastudy-covid-19-treatments

"One of the world’s biggest trials of COVID-19 therapies released its long-awaited interim results yesterday—and they’re a letdown. None of the four treatments in the Solidarity trial, which enrolled more than 11,000 patients in 400 hospitals around the globe, increased survival—not even the much-touted antiviral drug remdesivir. "

"There was still hope for remdesivir and for interferon-beta, which initially had been given in combination with ritonavir/lopinavir but was tested as a standalone drug after the Recovery data came out. But neither of those treatments lowered mortality or delayed the moment patients needed ventilation to help them breathe. The results in these two treatment arms are likely to be the most scrutinized. "

Wasn't it pointed put that loads of the participants in those trials got remdesivir st the wrong stage of the disease yet. Yer man in the white house got it at the right stage though he is more rcently ill. ie treatment procols have changed from esrly on.

Gael23

Mark1916 wrote: »

Fingers crossed for 3rd week in November, great communication from Pfizer

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla

What’s their production capacity?

XsApollo

What kind of storage does Pfizer’s vaccine need?
The colder it needs the harder it is to distribute.

Edit:
Never mind just read it needs to be stored in the minus 90’s Fahrenheit.
So that answers that.
Much harder to roll out through GP’s and pharmacy’s at that temp.

Mark1916

XsApollo wrote: »

What kind of storage does Pfizer’s vaccine need?
The colder it needs the harder it is to distribute.

Edit:
Never mind just read it needs to be stored in the minus 90’s Fahrenheit.
So that answers that.
Much harder to roll out through GP’s and pharmacy’s at that temp.

I’m sure they’ll take all of that into consideration given they are a massive pharma company and I’d also assume GPs will be given all the support needed.

Even with some positive news some people find a way to turn it round as a negative.

I think you’re better off jogging off to the main Covid forum mate!

hmmm

Pfizer slide with storage & handling requirements:
https://twitter.com/LizSzabo/status/1298646754884300800/photo/1

[Deleted User]

Gael23 wrote: »

What’s their production capacity?

I think I read they'll have 100m doses ready by year end. Will try to find out where that was.

Inquitus

Mark1916 wrote: »

I’m sure they’ll take all of that into consideration given they are a massive pharma company and I’d also assume GPs will be given all the support needed.

Even with some positive news some people find a way to turn it round as a negative.

I think you’re better off jogging off to the main Covid forum mate!

To be fair it will be a vaccine that will probably work well in the west, but the storage requirements etc. would be a big problem to an effective rollout in Africa, India and similar places with a diverse population across massive areas and limited infrastructure.

XsApollo

Mark1916 wrote: »

I’m sure they’ll take all of that into consideration given they are a massive pharma company and I’d also assume GPs will be given all the support needed.

Even with some positive news some people find a way to turn it round as a negative.

I think you’re better off jogging off to the main Covid forum mate!

I’m not negative I am delighted , just having a discussion on the possible roll out of the vaccine as it is a big part of how quickly it will be rolled out.

This is the COVID vaccine discussion thread after all , and a big part of how the vaccine will be rolled out is it’s storage requirements.

So I suggest you jog on if you can’t handle that.

Deeper Blue

I'd like to get to the stage where the rollout is the main concern. At least then there'll be an end in sight, however far away it may be. At this moment in time we don't even have that.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

I think I read they'll have 100m doses ready by year end. Will try to find out where that was.

It's from July but this suggested 100m will be ready for the US under Operation Warp speed by year end.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-biontech-snare-1-95b-deal-u-s-government-for-100m-plus-doses-covid-19-vaccine#:~:text=The%20partners%20have%20stated%20their,by%20the%20end%20of%202021.&text=Last%20week%2C%20Pfizer%20and%20BioNTech,3%20trials%20later%20this%20month.

From the article:

"The supply pact puts hard numbers to Pfizer and BioNTech's agreement with HHS and the U.S. Department of Defense to supply up to 300 million doses of their vaccine stateside by the end of 2021. The partners have stated their goal of producing 100 million vaccine doses by the end of 2020 and 1.3 billion doses total by the end of 2021."

Gael23

Deleted User wrote: »

It's from July but this suggested 100m will be ready for the US under Operation Warp speed by year end.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-biontech-snare-1-95b-deal-u-s-government-for-100m-plus-doses-covid-19-vaccine#:~:text=The%20partners%20have%20stated%20their,by%20the%20end%20of%202021.&text=Last%20week%2C%20Pfizer%20and%20BioNTech,3%20trials%20later%20this%20month.

From the article:

"The supply pact puts hard numbers to Pfizer and BioNTech's agreement with HHS and the U.S. Department of Defense to supply up to 300 million doses of their vaccine stateside by the end of 2021. The partners have stated their goal of producing 100 million vaccine doses by the end of 2020 and 1.3 billion doses total by the end of 2021."

Looks like US will get priority.

I would contain the excitement for a bit longer