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The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

ShineOn7

Let’s round up the Republic’s population to 5 million, it’s only 100,000 shy of this number

The amount of people expected to get it (whether they show symptoms or not) is anything from 30% to 70%, depending on the source you read. Huge differences there but let’s say 50% because it’s somewhere in between

That’s 2.5 million who’ll get it (remember; not all will show symptoms)

Reported mortality rates on this have been 0.5 to 2%. It’s just too early to tell

Let’s be optimistic and say 1%

1% of 2.5 million is 25,000 Irish fatalities in the Republic

This is more than double how many the HSE worker doing the Ask Me Anything thinks in his Best Case Scenario. He mentioned 10,000 people in this instance

So hopefully he’s actually right in this case and it’s “only” 10,000

For this to happen;

- The amount of carriers of this will have to be much lower than 50%, and

- mortality rate would need to be closer to 0.5%

How does 10,000 compare to a normal 12 months in Ireland when you combine the pneumonia and flu fatalities?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

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ShineOn7

IAMAMORON wrote: »

since the outbreak 652 people under the age of 45 have been admitted to hospital. 67 have been admitted to ICU. 19 people have died under the age of 45.

Thanks

I divided 652 in to 36,597 (total number of cases so far) using a percentage calculator and I got:

1.78%

That's the chances of getting hospitalized with it in Ireland if you're under 45 and based on the data made available to us

Diarmuid

Not peer reviewed yet (puglished 20 Sept) so read it with a skeptical eye
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5.full.pdf

This table was interesting if you want to put the risk in relative terms

Diarmuid

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks

I divided 652 in to 36,597 (total number of cases so far) using a percentage calculator and I got:

1.78%

That's the chances of getting hospitalized with it in Ireland if you're under 45 and based on the data made available to us

That's completely meaningless as your "total number of cases", is actually the number of positive test results. The number of infected people is going to be far higher.

ShineOn7

Diarmuid wrote: »

That's completely meaningless as your "total number of cases", is actually the number of positive test results. The number of infected people is going to be far higher.

We don't have the data of this "higher amount of infected people" - it's just presumptions

No data = no Maths

Blut2

Diarmuid wrote: »

Not peer reviewed yet (puglished 20 Sept) so read it with a skeptical eye
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5.full.pdf

This table was interesting if you want to put the risk in relative terms

So if you're under 35, if you catch covid your risk of death is no more than your risk of dying in an traffic accident in any given year? Which means if you don't catch it its even lower...

That really reinforces just how little risk this poses to young people.

ShineOn7

Blut2 wrote: »

So if you're under 35, if you catch covid your risk of death is no more than your risk of dying in an traffic accident in any given year? Which means if you don't catch it its even lower...

That really reinforces just how little risk this poses to young people.

The post also said

Not peer reviewed yet (puglished 20 Sept) so read it with a skeptical eye

normanoffside

So I see that the WHO estimates that 10% of the world's population (750m) have been infected already.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-world-in-for-a-hell-of-a-ride-in-coming-months-dr-mike-ryan-says-1.4370626

With a death toll of 1m that gives an IFR of 0.133%

Diarmuid

ShineOn7 wrote: »

We don't have the data of this "higher amount of infected people" - it's just presumptions

You didn't read the paper then. But I guess it didn't suit your narrative so you chose to ignore it.

That it's not peer reviewed doesn't make it wrong.

McGiver

normanoffside wrote:

So I see that the WHO estimates that 10% of the world's population (750m) have been infected already.

If they add asymptomatic then maybe.

normanoffside wrote:

With a death toll of 1m that gives an IFR of 0.133%

A) many deaths in Africa, Asia and South America not accounted for.

Flu (bar avian and swine hybrid strains) has an IFR about 0.04% if you use a similar estimation including asymptomatic.

ShineOn7

McGiver wrote: »

If they add asymptomatic then maybe.

But there's no concrete data on asymptomatic cases is there? It's all speculation

Maths is based on data. If we've no data then it's not Maths

bb1234567

normanoffside wrote: »

So I see that the WHO estimates that 10% of the world's population (750m) have been infected already.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-world-in-for-a-hell-of-a-ride-in-coming-months-dr-mike-ryan-says-1.4370626

With a death toll of 1m that gives an IFR of 0.133%

The death toll is not 1 million,hard to guess but we can say with absolutely certainty that it's a lot higher than 1 million

Mexico COVID deaths as of July 31, 46,000. Excess deaths were 123,000 at that point in time
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mexico-excessdeath-idUSKBN25X00K

Iran confirmed covid deaths 26,000.. Last week announced to be in excess of 110,000 in urban areas alone in reality
https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/ncri-statements/statement-human-rights/iran-coronavirus-death-toll-in-444-cities-exceeds-110000/

Peru confirmed covid deaths 33,000. Excess deaths 82,500
https://arbiterz.com/2020/09/covid-19-us-south-africa-peru-others-take-the-lead-in-excess-death-rate/

Covid deaths in july in Russia were 6,000 while excess deaths were 30,000
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/09/04/russia-records-30k-excess-deaths-in-july-most-month-fatalities-in-decade-a71354

In India many states do not count it as a covid death if the person had a comorbidity

https://scroll.in/article/972578/why-assams-covid-fatality-rate-is-lowest-in-india-60-of-deaths-in-confirmed-cases-not-counted

98.75% of COVID deaths in Syria may be going unrecorded..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-in-syria-deaths-under-counted-amid-civil-war-bashar-assad-regime-blames-sanctions/

Just a couple of examples.. so as you can see, a lot of covid deaths are going unreported. It would not be surprising at all if the true covid death toll worldwide was in the region of 1.6 million or higher

Having said that, I think the figure of 10% infection rate worldwide also seems conservative. Half the population of Peru and many Indian cities is thought have become infected. I guess China and it's apparently tiny infection rate skews the global estimate downward

ShineOn7

Diarmuid wrote: »

Not peer reviewed yet (puglished 20 Sept) so read it with a skeptical eye
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5.full.pdf

This table was interesting if you want to put the risk in relative terms

Do you really believe that data and that Covid's IFR is in anyway comparable to automobile accidents?

Diarmuid

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Do you really believe that data and that Covid's IFR is in anyway comparable to automobile accidents?

It's giving you a frame of reference for the risk posed by Covid so that the next time you're clutching your pearls you at least can have some grasp of how dangerous it really is.

ShineOn7

Diarmuid wrote: »

It's giving you a frame of reference for the risk posed by Covid so that the next time you're clutching your pearls you at least can have some grasp of how dangerous it really is.

Clutching my what? lol

You're comparing a once in a century virus to car accidents for fcuks sake

bb1234567

I don't know why you'd compare it to car crashes really. Car crash risk is over a lifetime, your risk from COVID will be over the course of a year or two. Your risk from dying from COVID also rises in line with the amount of other people who contract it simultaneously due to strain on hospital resources, so just another reason why it is incomparable to car crash risk. I would like to see some kind of comparable risk factor worked out in order to make clear the risk from COVID in a more understandable way but I don't think car crash risk does this effectively at all.

It also dramatically varies by region of the world you live in which further complicates it

paleoperson

Can we just say everyone still trying to downplay the risk is just completely stupid at this stage? Come on, back in February or March they could have a possible point, now it's just gotten ridiculous. The car crashes grasping at straws is over long ago. Covid-19 has been the most common cause of death beating cardiovascular disease in many countries in the world for weeks or months at a time.

Also what's with this idea that we can just dismiss car crashes as something that doesn't really happen and unworthy to be scared of? Car crashes are by far the most likely cause of death in young people other than covid 19 now. That's why people need to take huge care when they go driving. You should be scared of getting into a vehicle accident.

patnor1011

This covid obsession and speculating about how many people will die is getting out of control.

In order to control a person’s mind, alter their behaviour, and manipulate their motions and reactions, that person must first be made ignorant and left feeling helpless, with no way to apply knowledge and independently solve their own problems.
In their ignorance, a person is made to feel helpless, abiding by authority’s controls to feel safe.

Thierry12

paleoperson wrote: »

Can we just say everyone still trying to downplay the risk is just completely stupid at this stage? Come on, back in February or March they could have a possible point, now it's just gotten ridiculous. The car crashes grasping at straws is over long ago. Covid-19 has been the most common cause of death beating cardiovascular disease in many countries in the world for weeks or months at a time.

Also what's with this idea that we can just dismiss car crashes as something that doesn't really happen and unworthy to be scared of? Car crashes are by far the most likely cause of death in young people other than covid 19 now. That's why people need to take huge care when they go driving. You should be scared of getting into a vehicle accident.

For young people?

Didn't someone post a link here the other day that u18's wont be getting a Covid 19 vaccine

Adult only vaccine it said

bb1234567

Not not for young people, youung people just don't die often in general nor from COVID so I dont see why the fact it is not killing large numbers of young people would change that fact of it being a main or major cause of death in many countries worldwide currently reagrdless

Blut2

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Clutching my what? lol

You're comparing a once in a century virus to car accidents for fcuks sake

The 1918-1920 Spanish flu killed 50 million people when the planet's population was 1.8billion.

The 1957-58 Asian flu killed 1.1 million people when the planet's population was 2.8billion.

The 1968 Hong Kong flu killed 1million people when the planet's population was 3.5 billion.

Our current 2019-2020 covid19 has killed 1 million people when the planet's population is 7.5 billion.

Corona is currently a distant 4th most deadly flu of the last century, nevermind "once in a century". Its really not that special.

Seweryn

Blut2 wrote: »

Corona is currently a distant 4th most deadly flu of the last century, nevermind "once in a century". Its really not that special.

And we need to remember that one million claimed is a massively overclocked number.

seamie78

the others give final figures, corona is still ongoing. doesn't mean it will climb up the rankings but who knows where it is heading

bb1234567

Blut2 wrote: »

The 1918-1920 Spanish flu killed 50 million people when the planet's population was 1.8billion.

The 1957-58 Asian flu killed 1.1 million people when the planet's population was 2.8billion.

The 1968 Hong Kong flu killed 1million people when the planet's population was 3.5 billion.

Our current 2019-2020 covid19 has killed 1 million people when the planet's population is 7.5 billion.

Corona is currently a distant 4th most deadly flu of the last century, nevermind "once in a century". Its really not that special.

Those deaths tolls were all over the course of 2 years . Corona has been a pandemic 6 months. So you'll have to judge properly in 18 months. Never mind the tens of thousands of unreported deatgs in iran,mexico , india etc- It is already far worse than the two mid century pandemics in affected nations such as regions of South and North America. Not that it'll be anything luke Spanish flu but it will certainly be at least double the death toll per capita as the other two pandemics

bb1234567

Seweryn wrote: »

And we need to remember that one million claimed is a massively overclocked number.

It certainly is not. Excess deaths in Mexico are 4x times higher than official deaths for example. Many indian states do not count deaths with underlying illness or anybody who dies before testing positive etc..may well be overcounted in parts of west Europe. But it's unlikely that even 1 in 3 covid deaths in the developing world are being reported

In fact, just so you try and lend at least a little bit of credibility to your statement, can you find even one example of a country in the developing world who's official covid deaths are even within a stone's throw of their excess deathss?

But then again even many developed countries are massively underreporting. Dutch governent just a few months ago announced that just half of COVID deaths were officially reported by the government. 1 in 2 deaths going completely missing, in one of the socially and economically developed countries in the world.
https://www.iamexpat.nl/expat-info/dutch-expat-news/twice-many-coronavirus-deaths-netherlands-registered

So with this information, how could anyone say the death toll is anywhere near 1 million. It is patently obvious that it is several hundred thousand higher than that

Andrewf20

bb1234567 wrote: »

It certainly is not. Excess deaths in Mexico are 4x times higher than official deaths for example. Many indian states do not count deaths with underlying illness etc..may be overcounted in west Europe. But it's unlikely that even 1 in 3 covid deaths in the developing world arw being reported

Equatorial or Southern Hemisphere countries are taking on a different trajectory / curve compared to a lot of european countries for some reason (their winter season probably a big contributor), some with a delayed death curve during our summertime.

For europe however it looks like we all got hit hard back in the spring time with a lot of excess deaths but a 2nd wave of deaths hasn't materialised yet from what I can see.

SomethingElse

WHO estimates 780 million have been infected so far with approx. 1 million dead. So the death rate so far is about 0.12%, far lower any of the above I would imagine.

[Deleted User]

SomethingElse wrote: »

WHO estimates 780 million have been infected so far with approx. 1 million dead. So the death rate so far is about 0.12%, far lower any of the above I would imagine.

Have you an estimate of the uncounted deaths that no one else has seen? Because by comparing an estimate with a confirmed figure, you really are comparing apples and orangutans.
Its possible that the death rate is lower in developing countries as so few of their populations reach old age, however I have yet to see a realistic comparison on this, but we do know many developing countries have significantly under counted deaths

bb1234567

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Equatorial or Southern Hemisphere countries are taking on a different trajectory / curve compared to a lot of european countries for some reason (their winter season probably a big contributor), some with a delayed death curve during our summertime.

For europe however it looks like we all got hit hard back in the spring time with a lot of excess deaths but a 2nd wave of deaths hasn't materialised yet from what I can see.

Well I mean since mid August Spain added almost 4,000 deaths but okay..obviously nowhere near what it was in April but it's still a significant increase in excess mortality in Spain

Charles Babbage

Seweryn wrote: »

And we need to remember that one million claimed is a massively overclocked number.

For the flu or the Covid?

Seweryn

Charles Babbage wrote: »

For the flu or the Covid?

For Cov.