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Where are the deaths coming from?

[Deleted User]

The official figure we are using for the deaths is currently 1802. According to the HPSC report on 02/09, only 447 cases were admitted to ICU. It is very strange that the number admitted to ICU is only a small fraction of the deaths.

I don't believe the figures are available, but I do believe that a very good percentage of ICU cases recover? Obviously the number that died in ICU is a lot lower than 447. Does anybody have these stats?

So it seems like we have about 1500 - 1600 deaths or so that never went to ICU. So where are these cases coming from?

In the over 65 category, there are 164 that went to ICU and 1658 deaths.
Is it a case that most of these people were just too sick to go to ICU? For example, a lot of the deaths would have been already suffering from terminal cancer, late stages of COPD, heart disease, Diabetes etc.

We also test every single person that dies for Covid. The test itself is quite sensitive. Is it a case that already dead people are testing positive and thus included in the figures?

Of course I know that the government/CMO have admitted to overstating the deaths and including possible/probable in the figures.

Anybody any thoughts or input? Surely anybody with even a remote chance of survival goes to ICU when there is capacity available? And we've always had capacity.

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Wanderer78

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The "experts" predicted something like 100,000 deaths for Sweden if they didn't lock down.

humans generally tend to be pretty sh1t at predictions!

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Some said it last week, trying to reason someone out of an opinion with stats and data, when that person hasn't reasoned themseves into that opinion with stats and data is pointless.

There has been an abdication of all self thought.

Fact is, excess deaths are at about 850 for the year until July, and the months after are well below average.

A point is going to come, when Covid wont actually have killed anyone at all

Like the fact you said that the flu is deadlier than COVID-19 in under 65s? Would you like to retract your statement in lieu of your false "stats and data" you used?

3xh

Augeo wrote: »

So do we bin the measures to control covid so and see how many are impacted?

It’s very simple;

Remove all ‘guidelines’ ‘advice’ ‘regulations’ etc etc about Max 15 people here and there, not travelling across your county border, max gym class sizes, Dublin pubs closed and on and on and on.

Let pub owners, restauranteurs, entertainment amenities, sports complexes, etc etc open up fully, IF they so choose. The patrons will decide themselves if they want to use them.

No government nor member of the public could insist they open, such is democracy and capitalism after all.

And from that, tell the public do what you want. You know the risks, you know the mitigating steps to take, if you see a restaurant that the owner is happy to open up and is brimming with patrons, choose yourself to move on to another one if you feel uncomfortable with the crowds.

Wear a mask on Clontarf seafront on a windy day because YOU WANT TO. Nobody banned you from doing so before Covid started.

If you believe in all things Ronan Glynn and RTE, you won’t go out. That’s fine. And if you do, you’ll keep 2m from people around you, sneeze in your elbow, make an adult decision to stay within your county (if under advice by NPHET not to do so) etc etc etc.

This top down blanket ban policy is nuts and serves only to buffer the very people drafting it in the first place from rightful accountability.

tobefrank321

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Some said it last week, trying to reason someone out of an opinion with stats and data, when that person hasn't reasoned themseves into that opinion with stats and data is pointless.

There has been an abdication of all self thought.

Fact is, excess deaths are at about 850 for the year until July, and the months after are well below average.

A point is going to come, when Covid wont actually have killed anyone at all

There's likely a large over count of deaths. Many elderly people ended up in hospital in the last 6 months with something else that was likely to kill them and also happened to pick up covid. They died from the other illlness but covid goes on the death cert. Its why deaths in countries like Germany are so low and in the UK so high, different ways of counting or miscounting deaths.

We also know now that a ventillator may increase your chance of death rather than reduce it.

And a large number of people Covid did kill were on deaths door already.

I just wish NPHET and co were transparent with the numbers. It feels like they are trying to maximise the impact of covid instead of being realistic.

Excess deaths is probably the more realistic figure.

Wanderer78

3xh wrote: »

It’s very simple;

Remove all ‘guidelines’ ‘advice’ ‘regulations’ etc etc about Max 15 people here and there, not travelling across your county border, max gym class sizes, Dublin pubs closed and on and on and on.

Let pub owners, restauranteurs, entertainment amenities, sports complexes, etc etc open up fully, IF they so choose. The patrons will decide themselves if they want to use them.

No government nor member of the public could insist they open, such is democracy and capitalism after all.

And from that, tell the public do what you want. You know the risks, you know the mitigating steps to take, if you see a restaurant that the owner is happy to open up and is brimming with patrons, choose yourself to move on to another one if you feel uncomfortable with the crowds.

Wear a mask on Clontarf seafront on a windy day because YOU WANT TO. Nobody banned you from doing so before Covid started.

If you believe in all things Ronan Glynn and RTE, you won’t go out. That’s fine. And if you do, you’ll keep 2m from people around you, sneeze in your elbow, make an adult decision to stay within your county (if under advice by NPHET not to do so) etc etc etc.

This top down blanket ban policy is nuts and serves only to buffer the very people drafting it in the first place from rightful accountability.

think we should also allow people to take on as much debt as possible, win win......

monara

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Why isn't this bigger news?

The virus is mainly killing people who are a few years older than the average lifespan.

And these old people can be easily isolated as they don't need to work anymore.

Yet for some reason the government has decided to destroy the economy, destroy the lives of millions of Irish people, and cause an absolute mass of depression, abuse and addiction problems.

Agree. Total lockdowns no longer necessary. The vulnerable should isolate, using common sense while the majority of workers continue in their jobs, observing distancing and other measures.

[Deleted User]

3xh wrote: »

It’s very simple;

Remove all ‘guidelines’ ‘advice’ ‘regulations’ etc etc about Max 15 people here and there, not travelling across your county border, max gym class sizes, Dublin pubs closed and on and on and on.

Let pub owners, restauranteurs, entertainment amenities, sports complexes, etc etc open up fully, IF they so choose. The patrons will decide themselves if they want to use them.

No government nor member of the public could insist they open, such is democracy and capitalism after all.

And from that, tell the public do what you want. You know the risks, you know the mitigating steps to take, if you see a restaurant that the owner is happy to open up and is brimming with patrons, choose yourself to move on to another one if you feel uncomfortable with the crowds.

Wear a mask on Clontarf seafront on a windy day because YOU WANT TO. Nobody banned you from doing so before Covid started.

If you believe in all things Ronan Glynn and RTE, you won’t go out. That’s fine. And if you do, you’ll keep 2m from people around you, sneeze in your elbow, make an adult decision to stay within your county (if under advice by NPHET not to do so) etc etc etc.

This top down blanket ban policy is nuts and serves only to buffer the very people drafting it in the first place from rightful accountability.

That's the absolute greatest load of horsesh1t I'll read all day. Even Trump isn't that daft.

[Deleted User]

monara wrote: »

Agree. Total lockdowns no longer necessary. The vulnerable should isolate, using common sense while the majority of workers continue in their jobs, observing distancing and other measures.

That's what's happening in Ireland now, even in Dublin and Donegal largely.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

That's the absolute greatest load of horsesh1t I'll read all day. Even Trump isn't that daft.

you read that sh1te!

OMM 0000

Wanderer78 wrote: »

theyre not purposely doing this, they exist in our society also, why would they want to purposely fcuk themselves up as well? running a country, during an extremely rare event, its extremely difficult, our health care system may not have the capacity to deal with this, during peak season.

I don't think they're doing it on purpose to amass power or whatever, I think these people are utterly incompetent and shouldn't be running a country. They are politicians (scum) not competent leaders (successful CEOs, etc.)

Wanderer78

OMM 0000 wrote: »

I don't think they're doing it on purpose to amass power or whatever, I think these people are utterly incompetent and shouldn't be running a country. They are politicians (scum) not competent leaders (successful CEOs, etc.)

so politicians are scum, and ceo's are competent and successful?

FintanMcluskey

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There's likely a large over count of deaths. Many elderly people ended up in hospital in the last 6 months with something else that was likely to kill them and also happened to pick up covid. They died from the other illlness but covid goes on the death cert. Its why deaths in countries like Germany are so low and in the UK so high, different ways of counting or miscounting deaths.

We also know now that a ventillator may increase your chance of death rather than reduce it.

And a large number of people Covid did kill were on deaths door already.

I just wish NPHET and co were transparent with the numbers. It feels like they are trying to maximise the impact of covid instead of being realistic.

Excess deaths is probably the more realistic figure.

Excess deaths are at about 850 to July.

July August and September have less notices on RIP than 2019, circa 1000, it will be interesting when the CSO publish the official figures

Kilboor

I think if anything, Covid has made me realise how cancerous and fake the media are. Absolute ****ing constant hysteria and scaremongering, and then the absolute fools buzzing off the situation and talking about it using phrases like "New Normal".

Shows how easily brainwashed the average person is. It would be nice for the media to lay down the facts for once. I'm unsure of how serious Covid is due to all the conflicting reports and the media's/states refusal to state the average age of deaths and if they had underlying illnesses.

I think once this is all over the stats will show that the tests were ineffective and unreliable, the average age for those that died will be above the average lifespan for an Irish person anyway, they will have underlying illnesses and mostly be in Nursing Homes (privately run nursing homes funded by the tax payers money, but no one will be held accountable no doubt), and that many people will have carried the virus asymptomatically.

Wanderer78

Kilboor wrote: »

I think if anything, Covid has made me realise how cancerous and fake the media are. Absolute ****ing constant hysteria and scaremongering, and then the absolute fools buzzing off the situation and talking about it using phrases like "New Normal".

Shows how easily brainwashed the average person is. It would be nice for the media to lay down the facts for once. I'm unsure of how serious Covid is due to all the conflicting reports and the media's/states refusal to state the average age of deaths and if they had underlying illnesses.

I think once this is all over the stats will show that the tests were ineffective and unreliable, the average age for those that died will be above the average lifespan for an Irish person anyway, they will have underlying illnesses and mostly be in Nursing Homes (privately run nursing homes funded by the tax payers money, but no one will be held accountable no doubt), and that many people will have carried the virus asymptomatically.

be careful with the so called 'social media' for info as well!

3xh

Augeo wrote: »

That's the absolute greatest load of horsesh1t I'll read all day. Even Trump isn't that daft.

Thanks for your input.

Do you not think if and when the numbers of cases/hospitalisations/ICU/deaths soar from such a plan, there’d come a point in peoples’ psyche that will make them think, ‘ok, I see it now. It’s just like March into April again. I guess I could get this virus. I’m scared now. I’ll take on the advice’ etc and act accordingly.

In the meantime, you’ll have been fine as you would’ve been restricting your movements, masking up, halving your contacts, etc etc.

We coped, hospitals-wise, even at the peak. If the populace saw the figures get anywhere near April’s again, it’d be no different.

Do you think death numbers would be similar next time round? How could they? Cases are similar to April yet deaths are basically zero. And that’s after we opened up many sectors during summer into August.

[Deleted User]

3xh wrote: »

.........

Do you not think if and when the numbers of cases/hospitalisations/ICU/deaths soar from such a plan, there’d come a point in peoples’ psyche that will make them think, ‘ok, I see it now. It’s just like March into April again. I guess I could get this virus. I’m scared now. I’ll take on the advice’ etc and act accordingly. ............

It would quite likely be too late, also you can't rely on the general population to do the right thing.

3xh wrote: »

.........In the meantime, you’ll have been fine as you would’ve been restricting your movements, masking up, halving your contacts, etc etc. ..........

And entering a shop for groceries and other essentials that's potentially full of clowns without masks who haven't been reducing their contacts etc etc.

3xh wrote: »

................We coped, hospitals-wise, even at the peak. If the populace saw the figures get anywhere near April’s again, it’d be no different. ......

What happened at the peak, we were in lockdown, we don't want to get back to lockdown.

3xh wrote: »

.........Do you think death numbers would be similar next time round? How could they? Cases are similar to April yet deaths are basically zero. And that’s after we opened up many sectors during summer into August.

Likely due to all of the measures in place, that you are saying to remove......... "Remove all ‘guidelines’ ‘advice’ ‘regulations’ etc etc about Max 15 people here and there, not travelling across your county border, max gym class sizes, Dublin pubs closed and on and on and on."

tobefrank321

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Excess deaths are at about 850 to July.

July August and September have less notices on RIP than 2019, circa 1000, it will be interesting when the CSO publish the official figures

The excess death total for the year to date should be included in every NPHET press conference going forward.

You can make mistakes counting covid deaths but you can't make much of a mistake with excess deaths.

So far the impact of covid appears to be an excess of about 800 deaths for the year to date.

OMM 0000

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so politicians are scum, and ceo's are competent and successful?

I was specific about successful CEOs.

Wanderer78

OMM 0000 wrote: »

I was specific about successful CEOs.

ah right, so those businesses that have been bailed out, is due to unsuccessful ceo's, yea?

Roger_007

Kilboor wrote: »

I think if anything, Covid has made me realise how cancerous and fake the media are. Absolute ****ing constant hysteria and scaremongering, and then the absolute fools buzzing off the situation and talking about it using phrases like "New Normal".

Shows how easily brainwashed the average person is. It would be nice for the media to lay down the facts for once. I'm unsure of how serious Covid is due to all the conflicting reports and the media's/states refusal to state the average age of deaths and if they had underlying illnesses.

I think once this is all over the stats will show that the tests were ineffective and unreliable, the average age for those that died will be above the average lifespan for an Irish person anyway, they will have underlying illnesses and mostly be in Nursing Homes (privately run nursing homes funded by the tax payers money, but no one will be held accountable no doubt), and that many people will have carried the virus asymptomatically.

I suppose that the most telling fact is that the death rate worldwide from this most deadly and contagious disease is about 1 in 8000.
Not all that scary really?

Kilboor

Roger_007 wrote: »

I suppose that the most telling fact is that the death rate worldwide from this most deadly and contagious disease is about 1 in 8000.
Not all that scary really?

I'd rather see clearer stats for Ireland. Different countries and people can be more susceptible to things like the flu due to genetic makeup, diets, healthcare, injections, climates etc. Not to mention hygiene practices and general age makeup with high skews to older populations in certain countries.

weldoninhio

Russman wrote: »

Or maybe when things started happening the virus was so new that nobody knew much about it ? Hindsight is great but governments around the world have to take a conservative approach and can't gamble with citizens lives. Its all very well to argue we needn't have done something, but what if we hadn't done it and it turned out we should have ? There'd be the same people calling for heads to roll.

I dunno, this craic of people thinking there's some vast conspiracy going on or everyone is being lied to by government just doesn't stack up. Why oh why would almost every government in the world crash their economies and fudge death numbers just for the heck of it ?

Hindsight? The nerds at NPHET have come out today and said they think we’ll need rolling lockdowns for the foreseeable future.

3xh

Augeo wrote: »

It would quite likely be too late, also you can't rely on the general population to do the right thing.

And entering a shop for groceries and other essentials that's potentially full of clowns without masks who haven't been reducing their contacts etc etc.

What happened at the peak, we were in lockdown, we don't want to get back to lockdown.

Likely due to all of the measures in place, that you are saying to remove......... "Remove all ‘guidelines’ ‘advice’ ‘regulations’ etc etc about Max 15 people here and there, not travelling across your county border, max gym class sizes, Dublin pubs closed and on and on and on."

Every single one of your answers contains at least one word of subjectivity or conditionality. In other words, your feelings, thoughts or hopes. I’m not discussing that.

Regarding you quoting my piece about removing all restrictions etc. Just to clarify, I’m not advocating NPHET rescind all advice/restrictions, pack up their bags and go home. In fact, I’d encourage them to continue with their online targeting, media briefings, advertising banners etc etc. and periodically remind those people who want to listen to those easy to implement tools like washing hands, case numbers, etc.

That’s a massive difference to what you’re trying to make out I’m implying.

3xh

Roger_007 wrote: »

I suppose that the most telling fact is that the death rate worldwide from this most deadly and contagious disease is about 1 in 8000.
Not all that scary really?

Lies. Damn Lies. And Statistics, as they say.

We don’t know 1m people have died. And we definitely don’t know how many people have actually contracted it at one point.

When Britain and Germany use different counting methods, for just one example, and Britain wrote down their total by 5,500 it’ll be an impossible figure to quote. The death rate.

Lazy journalists will certainly try to include it in their articles at least once.

[Deleted User]

3xh wrote: »

Every single one of your answers contains at least one word of subjectivity or conditionality. In other words, your feelings, thoughts or hopes. I’m not discussing that. ...................

I was replying to your thoughts FFS, ........if and when ........ there would come a point

3xh wrote: »

..........................
Do you not think if and when the numbers of cases/hospitalisations/ICU/deaths soar from such a plan, there’d come a point in peoples’ psyche that will make them think, ‘ok, I see it now. It’s just like March into April again. I guess I could get this virus. I’m scared now. I’ll take on the advice’ etc and act accordingly. .......................

[Deleted User]

3xh wrote: »

............... I’m not advocating NPHET rescind all advice/restrictions, pack up their bags and go home. In fact, I’d encourage them to continue with their online targeting, media briefings, advertising banners etc etc. and periodically remind those people who want to listen to those easy to implement tools like washing hands, case numbers, etc.

That’s a massive difference to what you’re trying to make out I’m implying.

Really........

3xh wrote: »

It’s very simple;

Remove all ‘guidelines’ ‘advice’ ‘regulations’ etc etc about Max 15 people here and there, not travelling across your county border, max gym class sizes, Dublin pubs closed and on and on and on.

Let pub owners, restauranteurs, entertainment amenities, sports complexes, etc etc open up fully, IF they so choose. The patrons will decide themselves if they want to use them.

No government nor member of the public could insist they open, such is democracy and capitalism after all.

And from that, tell the public do what you want. You know the risks, you know the mitigating steps to take, if you see a restaurant that the owner is happy to open up and is brimming with patrons, choose yourself to move on to another one if you feel uncomfortable with the crowds.

Wear a mask on Clontarf seafront on a windy day because YOU WANT TO. Nobody banned you from doing so before Covid started.

If you believe in all things Ronan Glynn and RTE, you won’t go out. That’s fine. And if you do, you’ll keep 2m from people around you, sneeze in your elbow, make an adult decision to stay within your county (if under advice by NPHET not to do so) etc etc etc.

This top down blanket ban policy is nuts and serves only to buffer the very people drafting it in the first place from rightful accountability.

FintanMcluskey

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The excess death total for the year to date should be included in every NPHET press conference going forward.

You can make mistakes counting covid deaths but you can't make much of a mistake with excess deaths.

So far the impact of covid appears to be an excess of about 800 deaths for the year to date.

Of course they should include the excess death rate, but that doesnt sound as impressive as saying Covid has killed 1800 people.

Zebra3

Wanderer78 wrote: »

theyre not purposely doing this, they exist in our society also, why would they want to purposely fcuk themselves up as well? running a country, during an extremely rare event, its extremely difficult, our health care system may not have the capacity to deal with this, during peak season.

Political cowardice.

Afraid to change tack. Worried to be seen as admitting a mistake or a sign of weakness. Just plough ahead with blinkers on.

Also the concern the reaction of the virtue signalers and other politicians who'll label them granny killers.

Wanderer78

Zebra3 wrote: »

Political cowardice.

Afraid to change tack. Worried to be seen as admitting a mistake or a sign of weakness. Just plough ahead with blinkers on.

Also the concern the reaction of the virtue signalers and other politicians who'll label them granny killers.

say wha?

bb1234567

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Why isn't this bigger news?

The virus is mainly killing people who are a few years older than the average lifespan.

And these old people can be easily isolated as they don't need to work anymore.

Yet for some reason the government has decided to destroy the economy, destroy the lives of millions of Irish people, and cause an absolute mass of depression, abuse and addiction problems.

They make up the bulk of the deaths because originally outbreaks were more concentrated in nursing homes, ie. the most vulnerable people were also most likely to become infected. I think it is a mistake to say that because most of the deaths were in this age group that they are the only age group that could be badly affected. Limited community outbreaks would skew this figure.

It is a risk to people in the 50-70 age group as well, as we can see from death statistics in South and North America where the virus is much more prevalent in the community than in Ireland. In the United States over 42,000 people under 65 have died of COVID in the USA as of September. In Brazil about 50,000 people under 65 have died of COVID. In India about 50,000 as well. Mexico similar proportion.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html
So there is clearly an appreciable risk for people younger than nursing home age as well, older middle aged people in the 55-65 age bracket are at a reasonably concerning level of risk of complications from COVID.