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Where are the deaths coming from?

[Deleted User]

The official figure we are using for the deaths is currently 1802. According to the HPSC report on 02/09, only 447 cases were admitted to ICU. It is very strange that the number admitted to ICU is only a small fraction of the deaths.

I don't believe the figures are available, but I do believe that a very good percentage of ICU cases recover? Obviously the number that died in ICU is a lot lower than 447. Does anybody have these stats?

So it seems like we have about 1500 - 1600 deaths or so that never went to ICU. So where are these cases coming from?

In the over 65 category, there are 164 that went to ICU and 1658 deaths.
Is it a case that most of these people were just too sick to go to ICU? For example, a lot of the deaths would have been already suffering from terminal cancer, late stages of COPD, heart disease, Diabetes etc.

We also test every single person that dies for Covid. The test itself is quite sensitive. Is it a case that already dead people are testing positive and thus included in the figures?

Of course I know that the government/CMO have admitted to overstating the deaths and including possible/probable in the figures.

Anybody any thoughts or input? Surely anybody with even a remote chance of survival goes to ICU when there is capacity available? And we've always had capacity.

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Russman

CalamariFritti wrote: »

The public will not (yet) support this. They have been hammered with covid fear propaganda 24/7 for 6 months and going. Government, NPHET and media have made a thorough job on that one.

You really think its a concerted effort ? Why would government, NPHET and the media do this then ?

GT89

billybonkers wrote: »

But there is a risk of death if you get it. It affects many people differently.

We're meant to be protecting everybody in this situation with a particular focus on the elderly and vulnerable. I certainly don't want to get it or any of my family to get it.

There is also a risk of getting hit when you cross a busy road.

Everyone would would prefer them or their family not to get sick. I would prefer not to get the flu but I don't go locking myself in my house over it.

Skyfloater

MOH wrote: »

WTF? Of course I can. People are people, a death is a death.
Somebody in their 80s isn't magically worth less because of their age.

See if your viewpoint changes when you're 83.

Really?
Imagine that you and your 15 year old daughter are visiting your 83 year old mother. You agree to do her shopping for her, but when you come back the house is on fire. You look in the window to see both your mother and daughter unconscious on the floor.
Who do you pull to safety first?

_Whimsical_

ranto_boy wrote: »

Current CDC estimates - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

For people aged 20-49 (most here I imagine), your chance of surviving corona is 99.9998%.

You have to bare in mind that a long haul covid syndrome is becoming increasingly common and at present we do not know what the outcome of that will be. James's hospital was featured on the news today and their research so far is that 50% of patients are still reporting disabling symptoms several months after infection, even those who had mild illness. A lot have not been able to return to work. If we were to look at this running rampant though our young society it could have consequences we can't currently anticipate, mass absence of health staff and teaching staff for example as a potential 50% struggle to recover. The stringent restrictions won't last, as we learn more in time and can be confident of a full recovery of the young we will be able to change things accordingly. Right now by stemming the flow we are at least buying some valuable time.

[Deleted User]

copeyhagen wrote: »

ok, so now its not long term, but short to medium, gotcha, just keep moving your goal posts when proven wrong.

So, are you actually prove me wrong or just accuse me of moving the goalposts? At this point it appears that you've added absolutely nothing to the discussion.

Nermal

ranto_boy wrote: »

Current CDC estimates - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

For people aged 20-49 (most here I imagine), your chance of surviving corona is 99.9998%.

To put this in perspective, if you have a 250KM each-way trip to get the test centre, you're as likely to die in an accident driving to get a test as from the disease you're being tested for.

paw patrol

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The medical card is means tested for ovet 70,s . The GP card is not means tested

not in 2008
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30382169.html

the abuse they gave poor john gormley outside the dail.:)

mcsean2163

MOH wrote: »

Every time I see something like that I wonder would people say the same if Covid death rates were highest among, say, those under age 15.

Everytime I see this I wonder what planet people are living on. Someone dying at 15 is tragic as their life is cut short, someone dying at 84 (median age of covid19 death) is a sad outcome but that person has lived their life and hopefully the previous 84 years were fulfilling.

JDD

Surely it's not just your GPs decision whether you go to hospital or not? I mean, I think the NH doctor was probably right in his assessment of your mother, but if you had disagreed with him you could have collected your mother and brought her to A&E right? I'm not at all saying that you should have done that, just that it would have been open for you to do so if you had wanted to?

eddie73

douglashyde wrote: »

Median age of death = 83, Comorbidity very high well over 90%.

Technocrats & civil servants lack imagination and only know blunt force options, they're also swayed easily by the simple story which right now is 'case numbers'.

There needs to be serious pressure from business groups, media commentators, the medical community and most importantly, the public.

Yes, that is a good point.

But how would the business groups argue against cases such as New York, Brazil, Mexico etc and Mexico's younger death demography?

The dillema that will be thrown right back at them will be this is what will happen if we do nothing.

CalamariFritti

douglashyde wrote: »

Median age of death = 83, Comorbidity very high well over 90%.

Technocrats & civil servants lack imagination and only know blunt force options, they're also swayed easily by the simple story which right now is 'case numbers'.

There needs to be serious pressure from business groups, media commentators, the medical community and most importantly, the public.

The public will not (yet) support this. They have been hammered with covid fear propaganda 24/7 for 6 months and going. Government, NPHET and media have made a thorough job on that one.

douglashyde

Median age of death = 83, Comorbidity very high well over 90%.

Technocrats & civil servants lack imagination and only know blunt force options, they're also swayed easily by the simple story which right now is 'case numbers'.

There needs to be serious pressure from business groups, media commentators, the medical community and most importantly, the public.

iamwhoiam

paw patrol wrote: »

a load of b0llocks
when the country was on it's knees the old brigade protested to demand the medical card wasn't means tested for the over 70s. They happily lumped the cost on the backs of the younger tax payers to pay off for decades.

The old aren't any more benevolent as the rest of society , plenty of cun1s in that cohort - just like any other grouping. No better no worse.

The medical card is means tested for ovet 70,s . The GP card is not means tested

paw patrol

spurious wrote: »

Isolation, regardless of food deliveries has a very detrimental effect on the mental health of many older people.

You can be damn sure if it was under 30s dying of something, the older brigade would do all in their power to protect them.

a load of b0llocks
when the country was on it's knees the old brigade protested to demand the medical card wasn't means tested for the over 70s. They happily lumped the cost on the backs of the younger tax payers to pay off for decades.

The old aren't any more benevolent as the rest of society , plenty of cun1s in that cohort - just like any other grouping. No better no worse.

_Brian

Deleted User wrote: »

The official figure we are using for the deaths is currently 1802. According to the HPSC report on 02/09, only 447 cases were admitted to ICU. It is very strange that the number admitted to ICU is only a small fraction of the deaths.

I don't believe the figures are available, but I do believe that a very good percentage of ICU cases recover? Obviously the number that died in ICU is a lot lower than 447. Does anybody have these stats?

So it seems like we have about 1500 - 1600 deaths or so that never went to ICU. So where are these cases coming from?

In the over 65 category, there are 164 that went to ICU and 1658 deaths.
Is it a case that most of these people were just too sick to go to ICU? For example, a lot of the deaths would have been already suffering from terminal cancer, late stages of COPD, heart disease, Diabetes etc.

We also test every single person that dies for Covid. The test itself is quite sensitive. Is it a case that already dead people are testing positive and thus included in the figures?

Of course I know that the government/CMO have admitted to overstating the deaths and including possible/probable in the figures.

Anybody any thoughts or input? Surely anybody with even a remote chance of survival goes to ICU when there is capacity available? And we've always had capacity.

As with the seasonal flu very old people aren’t admitted to icu, many aren’t even admitted to hospital. They are made comfortable and a wait and see approach is taken. Old people don’t do well on ventilators. Mostly their lumgs are already so weak and damaged that they will never ever come off the ventilator.
This has been standard in Ireland for years.

It’s one of the biggest mistakes made in Italy, they put loads of old people on ventilators who should never have gone onto them. They lingered on keeping the ventilators occupied when they were needed for younger sick patients who actually had a chance of surviving. That’s where the story came from about ventilators being taken from older people and given to younger patients

[Deleted User]

copeyhagen wrote: »

ok, so now its not long term, but short to medium, gotcha, just keep moving your goal posts when proven wrong.

Feel free to go back and take look now sure.

:rolleyes:

Zebra3

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Hong Kong had this problem too, so they made wearing masks a legal requirement.

Even outdoors, you had to wear a mask.

But Ireland as usual can't even get this right. Just force people to wear masks. It's not difficult.

Ireland doesn't have anything like the population density that the central areas of HK would have.

copeyhagen

circadian wrote: »

Oh, great, so a handful of people with access to the best healthcare on the planet (not to mention fast and high quality testing) have so far, largely avoided short to medium term problems associated with Covid-19.

We're all grand then, sure no reason to not catch it and we should just absolutely ignore scientific data and observations based on what is observed a different sample group that doesn't really share anything in common with us plebs.

ok, so now its not long term, but short to medium, gotcha, just keep moving your goal posts when proven wrong.

ranto_boy

circadian wrote: »

You cannot possibly quantify that.

Current CDC estimates - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

For people aged 20-49 (most here I imagine), your chance of surviving corona is 99.9998%.

Russman

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Hong Kong had this problem too, so they made wearing masks a legal requirement.

Even outdoors, you had to wear a mask.

But Ireland as usual can't even get this right. Just force people to wear masks. It's not difficult.

Totally agree with the sentiment but wouldn't work here.
Only yesterday I walked to the door of a small shop to collect something, realised I had totally forgotten to put a mask on and told the guy I'd be back in 30 seconds I just need to run back to the car to get a mask (which I did and was happy to), when I got back he said "ahh there was no need to do that".

screamer

Glinda wrote: »

Friend of mine lived and worked at a very senior level in Japan for a period. He was really struck by their approach to managing a crisis in the big multinational he worked for. When something really bad happened (and this was long before Covid) they would have a crisis meeting where everyone concerned would pour all their energy and expertise into figuring out what to do next. They called this brainstorming.

At home, he said our approach is different. When something really bad happens, we have everyone concerned pouring all their energy and expertise into figuring out who is to blame. His company called this blame-storming, and regarded it as a complete waste of time.

It's very evident that we're exhausting ourselves with blame storming during covid. This isn't helped by the fact that conspiracy theories (designed to divide people and promote discord) thrive in the dark. The disastrous management of information and communication, at a time where the most critical success factor is our ability to pull together, is the greatest failing of all, and that's what's killing people in this second phase.

There’s no brainstorming to be done, when things are headed for free fall, we all have to arm ourselves with the best masks, Not those washable or disposable things. a good supply of sanitizer and limit our socialisation. Self preservation above all else.

Russman

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Haha I'm not.

Is there mad stuff there about masks?

The sad reality is a lot of people are morons so we need to enforce mask wearing.

Sure there were bus loads of Dubs down in Cavan at the weekend to attend a march against masks ! Allegedly.

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No.

What we need to be looking at is that Covid disproportionately affects those who are obese.

Now does your link take into account the life quality of those who are obese, above the age of life expectancy in a nursing home?

QALY does take that into account. The clue is in the name. Obesity is certainly a risk factor fore reduced QALY and also covid if that was what you were trying to suggest.

Glinda

Friend of mine lived and worked at a very senior level in Japan for a period. He was really struck by their approach to managing a crisis in the big multinational he worked for. When something really bad happened (and this was long before Covid) they would have a crisis meeting where everyone concerned would pour all their energy and expertise into figuring out what to do next. They called this brainstorming.

At home, he said our approach is different. When something really bad happens, we have everyone concerned pouring all their energy and expertise into figuring out who is to blame. His company called this blame-storming, and regarded it as a complete waste of time.

It's very evident that we're exhausting ourselves with blame storming during covid. This isn't helped by the fact that conspiracy theories (designed to divide people and promote discord) thrive in the dark. The disastrous management of information and communication, at a time where the most critical success factor is our ability to pull together, is the greatest failing of all, and that's what's killing people in this second phase.

[Deleted User]

da_miser wrote: »

One inconvenient fact to refute these scares, every single famous person who has got Covid19 and announced it as soon as they did has made a full recovery, Novak Djokovic back playing at the highest level, numerous football stars, and American sports stars, plenty of Hollywood stars, not a single one of them has failed to make a full recovery and are back to work.
If they had long term effects we would have heard about it , but not a peep, so the time to panic has passed.

Oh, great, so a handful of people with access to the best healthcare on the planet (not to mention fast and high quality testing) have so far, largely avoided short to medium term problems associated with Covid-19. EDIT: Include long term in this statement to meet the needs of a pedant.

We're all grand then, sure no reason to not catch it and we should just absolutely ignore scientific data and observations based on what is observed a different sample group that doesn't really share anything in common with us plebs.

OMM 0000

MrStuffins wrote: »

You're obviously not on Facebook!

Haha I'm not.

Is there mad stuff there about masks?

The sad reality is a lot of people are morons so we need to enforce mask wearing.

MrStuffins

OMM 0000 wrote: »

But Ireland as usual can't even get this right. Just force people to wear masks. It's not difficult.

You're obviously not on Facebook!

da_miser

circadian wrote: »

Let's not forget the long term effects of having the virus, so far some people who were otherwise young and healthy that are suffering from "long covid" have experienced some of the following;

Blood clots,
COPD,
Chronic Fatigue,
Hair loss,
Heart damage and heartbeat irregularities,
Lung, kidney and brain damage.

One inconvenient fact to refute these scares, every single famous person who has got Covid19 and announced it as soon as they did has made a full recovery, Novak Djokovic back playing at the highest level, numerous football stars, and American sports stars, plenty of Hollywood stars, not a single one of them has failed to make a full recovery and are back to work.
If they had long term effects we would have heard about it , but not a peep, so the time to panic has passed.

[Deleted User]

circadian wrote: »

........

Comparing a conformative society like Japan to most western cultures, especially Ireland doesn't work.

Yes, that'd be a tad dumb IMO.

OMM 0000

Russman wrote: »

But that's just the point, Ireland is completely different culturally than those places. It simply wouldn't happen here. Look at how long it took for masks to come into play here, and even then you still had people coming up with all sorts of excuses as to why they shouldn't have to wear one. Half the workers in shops are wearing them down on their chin or those stupid visors propped up on their heads. Our first reaction to anything is "how can I get round that ?"

Hong Kong had this problem too, so they made wearing masks a legal requirement.

Even outdoors, you had to wear a mask.

But Ireland as usual can't even get this right. Just force people to wear masks. It's not difficult.