Silentcorner wrote: » Ya, I'm going to go with my own personal experience of relying on polls published in mainstream media, which contributed to my shock that Trump got elected in 2016...a shock that most of us vividly remember. It is abundantly clear, even from here in Ireland, that the entire media industry in the US is compromised and cannot be relied upon to inform any of us in a balanced manner.... It is a poor reflection on feminists that they have given themselves a reputation for incompetence and political failure.
letowski wrote: » Most polls are carried out be academic institutions or market research companies.
Deleted User wrote: » He encourages militias and has declared the innocence of the teen who killed two people in Kenosha, the teen faces homicide charges.
He also gassed a church to get a photo op.
In addition to that, he risked a war with Iran with that assassination earlier in the year and in the process heavily damaged the US relationship with Iraq....
He also still believes the central park five did it and stands by his call for them to be executed.
DangerScouse wrote: » The elephant in the room is many people just won't admit to voting for Trump, polls are virtually worthless.
Silentcorner wrote: » Well, I know in this country, one polling company leans in favour of one political party and another leans the other way...I don't recall which one is which because even in this country I have long abandoned any interest in published polls. Then factor in the bias of the publishing/media company you can see why there is little to depend on...put that in the American context and it is lethal, if you are not seeing polls indicating a fairly significant shift in the voting intentions of the black community then remember that on election night. You have to use your own faculty as best you can knowing that you are misinformed...it's one reason why I don't know what to believe these days...the industry (media) which I have depended on all my adult life have proven to be completely unreliable which has only gotten worse over the last 5 years in particular!
Timberrrrrrrr wrote: » And yet when a poll surfaces that makes #IMPOTUS look good the zealots post it up with glee :pac:
letowski wrote: » I wouldn't quite share your opinion of US pollsters. The media certainly did an awful job covering the state of the 2016 race. I think they were so blinded by their hate to Trump, they refused to acknowledge the worrying signs. Pollsters were only out nationally by 1.1% which wasn't bad. More out at state level for sure, where it matters, but still mostly within the margin or error. Remember, Trump only won Michigan by 0.23%, Pennsylvania by 0.73%, Wisconsin by 0.77% and Florida by 1.20%. It was a damn close run race. They media ignored Hillary's lead halving in October 2016 by pollsters. 538 for example gave Trump a 35% chance of winning on election night which was a decent chance.
Silentcorner wrote: » Fair point. I do remember hearing that the polls published for the swing states had Hillary ahead by a massive ratio, over 80 polls had her ahead, less than 5 had Trump ahead...can't be sure but there or thereabouts. I was obviously consuming media that cherry picked what polls I saw, I remember following that election with interest on account of Trumps involvement, back then I would have been reading online, Irish times, The Guardian, in print, the SBP and Newsweek. I don't consume any of those anymore, probably explains why I don't have a pathological hatred of Trump.
Silentcorner wrote: » If the polls are any way tight at the moment, this race is over, momentum has shifted, Biden doesn't have energy or enthusiasm out there....the Trump support is notoriously hard to poll, factor in the shift that the Defund the police movement will throw Trumps way, the lawlessness and mayhem that BLM have brought to a lot of cities, causing the surge in gun ownership...their economy is looking in much better shape than it was three months ago...you could be looking at a Republican President winning the most diverse mandate in history. The Democrats are looking at a decade out of power...like Labour in the UK, they have succumbed to the extreme elements of their party which has mushroomed over the last few years, I don't see how the party of feminists are going to turn it around it's not in their nature to admit they got something wrong!
circular flexing wrote: » The thing is that Trump campaign has been pushing law and order message for weeks now and it hasn't shifted the polls that much if at all. The indicators are that people care (by a large margin) most about the economy and getting the pandemic under control, neither of which Trump has a plan for. Yes, some jobs were recovered but unemployment is still way up and more temporary job losses are being made permanent. There is no plan for controlling the pandemic other than a moonshot vaccine by election day. Now that Trump is on record of knowing how serious the virus was while downplaying it at the same time, I don't see how anyone can think he is fit to lead.
NSAman wrote: » Both Parties need a good cleaning out... but that is not going to happen. Both Parties are killing America. Democrats are a joke at this stage (that is not to say the Republicans are not) but fielding Biden in this race is like putting a life vest on the Titanic (the ship i mean) It is never going to work.
Eric Cartman wrote: » I remember watching a clip in 2016 and it was a voxpop where they asked about 5-6 people to stop and who they were voting for / why , the first person who went was a typical ideological college student, light on facts heavy on feelings, called trump every 'ist' under the sun, the next two were a husband and wife, both said 'ehh not entirely sure yet but probably Hillary' , asked the other 2 people, they confidently said Hillary. then the interviewer comes back and narrates that while walking back to the van they saw the couple get in to their car with a trump bumper sticker on it, stopped them and asked why didn't they say anything, they had said they were afraid of how animated the college girl would get if they said trump and that they didn't want confrontation. this it the reality of it and for any republican candidate , you have husbands who won't say it infront of their wives, parents who won't say it infront of their kids, grandparents who won't say it out loud , voting republican has a stigma so the only place you'll affirm it is in the polling booth.
Justin Credible Darts wrote: » Absolutely, however the fans on here of the democrats who are as evil,ad as much of a war monger party are so blinkered they are letting their bias cloud everything
And we’re ordering tremendous amounts of new equipment. We’re at $700 billion for the military. And, you know, they were cutting back for years. They just kept cutting, cutting, cutting the military. And you got lean, to put it nicely. It was depleted, was the word. And now it’s changing.
How bad was Hilary if Trump could beat her. If he beats biden the excuses will flow for that too, people wont see that Trump is where he is because people put him there.
Man with broke phone wrote: » Just seeing the nobel prize news now, amazing stuff. Well deserved. Shocking reading the last few pages how people just take any daily mail type story as fact so long as its anti trump. An elected MP nominated him for the peace prize. He very well may win it. I believe he will be the first world leader to bring stability to the middle east and maybe even peace one day and Im sure he hopes most of all to do it with no invasions, no new wars. Hes going to make a deal because thats what he does. They are starting to call him uncle Trump in parts of the middle east, he is the first president to treat them with respect.
kenmm wrote: » That by being in continual denial and defence mode he is letting everyone down.
Baizuo refers to people who "only care about topics such as immigration, minorities, LGBT and the environment," who "have no sense of real problems in the real world," who only advocate for peace and equality to "satisfy their own feelings of moral superiority" and who are so "obsessed with political correctness" that they "tolerate backward Islamic values for the sake of multiculturalism," reads Zhang's article published in opendemocracy.com on May 11.
Justin Credible Darts wrote: » I dont like him either, but you have to question if he is letting people down when half his country will be more likely voting for him, so they don't feel he left him down. He is not an anomaly, he is very much in keeping with the American mindset, and that in itself is the bigger problem. Its all well and good saying the orange lunatic is this and that, but you have to ask why and how he got there. Why his challenge is a bumbling old idiot. for a supposed nation of brilliance they are the only two options ? The last election was as bad, they had Trump and hilary. This goes way beyond just Trump
Biker79 wrote: » I really dont get why there so many people trying to signal their virtue by hating Trump. ' I hate Trump therefore Imust be a moral , sophisticated and intelligent person ' .. If the past 4 years have shown anything, its how pathetic many liberals actually are. No discernible values except for woolly social justice crap copied and pasted from the Guardian. The Chinese have a pejorative word to describe them - ' Baizuo ' ..
kenmm wrote: » I really don't get how some people are just lining up to make excuse after excuse for this guy. Obviously I think he is a bit of a buffoon that shouldn't be in power, but putting that aside, I could respect certain aspects of him if he just took some responsibility. But he wont, ever. Why can't his fans see that? That by being in continual denial and defence mode he is letting everyone down.
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