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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Gentlemanne

BobbyMalone wrote: »

Trump (..) write a book

Hahaha. Can you even imagine. I'm not even convinced he's literate never mind writing a full book.

Would be a must read for me, but for all the wrong reasons.

Hande hoche!

suicide_circus wrote: »

Surely its very hard to predict a vote when you're not really sure how many voters you have?

Absolutely, they try to draw conclusions from previous elections, some times it like tea leaves.

kenmm

Gentlemanne wrote: »

Hahaha. Can you even imagine. I'm not even convinced he's literate never mind writing a full book.

Would be a must read for me, but for all the wrong reasons.

You can start here then!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump:_The_Art_of_the_Deal

Writing a book these days doesn't actually mean sitting down and writing tho..

Carfacemandog

kenmm wrote: »

You can start here then!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump:_The_Art_of_the_Deal

Writing a book these days doesn't actually mean sitting down and writing tho..

That was actually written by a guy called Tony Schwartz who has since had some things to say about how the book which are, let's just say not very flattering.

kenmm

Carfacemandog wrote: »

That was actually written by a guy called Tony Schwartz who has since had some things to say about how the book which are, let's just say not very flattering.

I know, hence my last comment! - but technically speaking he has "written" a book - and if he were to write another one it would be ghost written just the same.

The other poster wanted to read and sounded surprised he had anything to his name - so there you go they can start already!

Gentlemanne

yeah, I am aware of The Art of the Deal, I was imagining a book genuinely written by the man himself.

It would probably be a completely nonsensical mess, considering that the ghostwriter for the aforementioned has said "I seriously doubt that Trump has ever read a book straight through in his adult life".

kenmm

Sorry - I misinterpreted!

Gentlemanne wrote: »

I was imagining a book genuinely written by the man himself.

Ah that wont happen. His (undiagnosed) personality disorder(s) wouldn't allow the attention span required.

ancapailldorcha

kenmm wrote: »

You can start here then!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump:_The_Art_of_the_Deal

Writing a book these days doesn't actually mean sitting down and writing tho..

That was ghostwritten by Tony Schwartz:

According to Schwartz in July 2016, Trump didn't write any of the book, choosing only to remove a few critical mentions of business colleagues at the end of the process. Trump responded with conflicting stories, saying "I had a lot of choice of who to have write the book, and I chose Schwartz", but then said "Schwartz didn't write the book. I wrote the book." Former Random House head Howard Kaminsky, the book's original publisher, said "Trump didn’t write a postcard for us!"[4] The book was published in November 1987 by Random House, with the authorship given as "Donald Trump with Tony Schwartz".

kenmm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That was ghostwritten by Tony Schwartz:

yep, it still is (It was mentioned above and I wrote that in my post!)

ELM327

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That was ghostwritten by Tony Schwartz:

Ghostwriters are pretty common for autobiographical works of non-literary figures.

WrenBoy

Does anyone know was that ghostwritten lads ?

[Deleted User]

WrenBoy wrote: »

Does anyone know was that ghostwritten lads ?

Ghosts can't write..don't be stupid..

WrenBoy

Deleted User wrote: »

Ghosts can't write..don't be stupid..

Are you being a phantasmophobe !??

kenmm

WrenBoy wrote: »

Does anyone know was that ghostwritten lads ?

The art of the deal?

This is like a phantom statement it keeps getting mentioned then rises from the dead again!

Pa ElGrande

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

I believe a lot of people who will vote for trump, wont admit they will vote for him.
. . . . . .

Across the United States in some places you may be attacked in the street for supporting Trump, you may be fired from your job in places for openly supporting Trump. Most people in public will repeat what they are told in the media and being anti-Trump is seen as being a high status indicator in public i.e. you are not in the basket of deplorables. It is wise then to keep your voting intentions to yourself when speaking with strangers.

The DNC hit piece carried in the Atlantic has backfired because it can be obviously taken apart. I do agree it is a good question worth asking what did those men die for? who benefited? And where WWI is concerned few dwell on the question in history class, it is just regarded as laying the groundwork for WWII.

There is lots to criticise Trump for, where he is good is shaking the box, which is something you will get from successful CEOs, i.e. you don't like the outcome or options being presented, shake the box again and see what falls out and how he reframes situations e.g. Trump says Putin 'competitor', not enemy which is an acknowledgement that the days of having a uni-polar world are gone and the USA must co-operation and compete rather than subjugate which is what it had been doing since 2001.

I've heard comments from people who voted for him often "I wish he wouldn't say it that way but . . ", and maybe some of that is most of the country not being used to New Yorkers. Trump does come across as someone who is not remote from the regular guy and can hold his own. As a showman you can argue that he is the biggest stand-up comedian in the United States playing to packed audiences across the country prior to the COVID lock down - he does hold peoples attention, you can see it here on boards how many threads have been started since he announced he was running back in 2015. He does get the public engaged, he is seen as hard charging, his base sees him as America first and being really disruptive to the Federal establishment while at the same time not interfering in their lives. Whether he was a good or bad US president will be judged years from now.

Irish media still have a picture of JFK on the wall and there have been in recent years fund raising groups for Obama and Hillary Clinton election campaigns in Ireland. In the Reagan era Irish media mostly sided with the Democrats. Personally I was more aligned with the campaign for nuclear disarmament (CND), building my own shelter to hide from an imminent nuclear holocaust. Nothing new, Irish medias coverage of American politics begins and ends with the Democrat party and JFK.

bobbyy gee

trump loves Russia
https://www.nbcnews.com/msnbc/rachel-maddow-show/trump-finds-new-ways-carry-water-russia-s-putin-ncna1239542

Pa ElGrande

bobbyy gee wrote: »

trump loves Russia
https://www.nbcnews.com/msnbc/rachel-maddow-show/trump-finds-new-ways-carry-water-russia-s-putin-ncna1239542

That post on MSNBC was written by Steve Benen a producer for Rachel Maddow show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_rTWxJepO8

Batmannn

I don't think orange man will win

I know he will same as I knew in 2016

Whatever concerns me is who will take over MAGA in 2024. Could be anybody.
Maybe Kaylei McEnany

ExMachina1000

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

That post on MSNBC was written by Steve Benen a producer for Rachel Maddow show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_rTWxJepO8

Rachel Maddows reaction after the Trump 2016 victory was fantastic to see.

Batmannn

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Rachel Maddows reaction after the Trump 2016 victory was fantastic to see.

LOL they were so sure of themselves.
So called expert commentators
Hahaha.

1800_Ladladlad

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Rachel Maddows reaction after the Trump 2016 victory was fantastic to see.

I don't know what went wrong after she finished doing art attack.

latest?cb=20180702223704

Justin Credible Darts

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

That post on MSNBC was written by Steve Benen a producer for Rachel Maddow show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_rTWxJepO8

was this video suppose to be funny. ?

looked like an attention seeker doing stupid facial expressions, hand gestures and the atrocious laughter.

That yank type of humour comes across as stupid and childlike.

AllForIt

This is funny. Trump calls his rallies "Peaceful Protests".

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1303475268867231744

Manic Moran

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a new news channel starting in the US who are using the revolutionary new approach of reading out the news as a series of verified facts with no opinion soap boxes. That tells you all you need to know about the state of the US media.

Wait, what? Where? I must watch this, what's it called? It'll make a nice change.

Wanderer78 wrote: »

True, but millions will still vote for him, no matter what he says or does, this is gonna be extremely close

Millions will vote for him, but I don't see it as being close.
However, it says something that he will get a good portion of the federation. Not because he's a great candidate, but because the populations of the states he will win feel that the modern Democratic party doesn't even come close to representing their interests or perspective. It's like both sides are in a race for the bottom right now. I'm looking at the candidates for my Congresisonal District, going "Well, the Republican incumbent doesn't line up with my views, let's check out the opposition..... You've got to be joking. This is Texas, not San Francisco. You really think you've a hope? Where's the American Looney Party candidate? Might be better"

I'll lay bets that the amount of States that the Democrats obtain the EC votes for will not be as matched by the amount of Senate seats which swing. There will be a large number of voters who will not wish to countenance Trump remaining in office, yet will not see that as being any reason to vote for a Democrat congressman. After all, Biden can only sign what Congress sends him.

Hes right about army men being suckers. Give up their youth and lose the first 5 to ten years of their career overseas risking their life to return with little skills of any use in america. Take a minimum wage job in their late twenties and start again or go to some foreign country doing private security. Someof them come back maimed or dead. What did they achieve?

It's not why I joined, but do you have any idea the amount of benefits I have received for having been in the military? Anything from a lower interest rate on my home mortgage (without the need to pay down 20%, as the loan is guaranteed by the US government, so home ownership for ex-servicemen in the US is far, far easier) and getting 60% of civilian flight school paid for, through to free college for my son. That's before the security clearance, which a lot of civilian employers value even if they don't deal with classified information as it shows responsibility and trustworthiness, or the fact that I get a pension for life, which isn't a thing in much of American society any more. There are other benefits as well. I will also say that my base military pay cheques are pretty damned reasonable.

Whatever about the risks to life and limb (which are high for firefighters, cops, etc as well), or any moral arguments about serving in the US military, an argument against the material benefits of military service in the US is evidence of an utter lack of knowledge of the facts on the ground.

Well I mean the president glorifies criminals all the time (see: Kyle Rittenhouse)

If he's a criminal. He's an idiot, but criminality remains to be determined, there are reasonable arguments that he's not. (and reasonable that he is, that's why we've juries, I guess)

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Still, the same CDC data shows black men are nearly three times as likely as white men to have at least one child they don't live with — but Blow pointed to policy-driven issues that may be driving the disparity. For example, a previous report by Justin Wolfers, David Leonhardt, and Kevin Quealy for the New York Times found there are 100 black women not in jail or prison for every 83 non-incarcerated black men. So mass incarceration has actually drained 1.5 million black men — many of whom are young and of marrying age — from their communities, making it more difficult for black women to find committed partners of the same race.

Hang on. So if there's a 17% difference between the percentages of black women vs men incarcerated, what's the cause of the 300% difference between separated parentage between black and white men? Incarceration rates appear not to be responsible for the vast majority of this disparity. I note that the incarceration rate for white folks is only an 8% difference by gender, that leaves quite a few unexplained.

Pa ElGrande

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

. . .
looked like an attention seeker doing stupid facial expressions, hand gestures and the atrocious laughter.
. . .
.

For context, If you don't know America media personalities, here is the original that he is sending up. Maddow got hold of an old copy of Donald Trumps tax returns and drew it out without getting to the point and in the end there was nothing worth reporting she got roasted. Colbert used to be funny back when he did the Daily show during the Bush era. In that instance, he got the satire spot on.

Pa ElGrande

Why A Biden Presidency Will Disappoint Progressive Democrats

A Biden presidency will be another disappointment for the progressives who support the Democrats campaign.

The Washington Post is lauding Joe Biden's 'flexibility' on policy issues:

<snip>

By making promises to the more progressive parts of the Democrats while secretly pledging different policies to the rich Joe Biden is following the 'flexibility' of Barack Obama. During his first presidential campaign Obama promised several times that he would renegotiate NAFTA, the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. But behind the back of his supporters he secretly send envoys to Canada to let the government there know that he did not intend to implement that promise:

<snip>

At the same time Biden's foreign policy team is filling up with liberal interventionists from the Obama era and with neoconservatives:

source

There is really one case to vote Trump that I can see thus far, and that is the virus is close to being resolved, but people need work. Trump personally has been through those setbacks before, he always has an optimistic outlook and while he is the wrong person to have at the start of the virus outbreak with little empathy to show, most Americans looked towards their state governors, He is probably the person in the right place and time to lead a recovery.

Timberrrrrrrr

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Why A Biden Presidency Will Disappoint Progressive Democrats

There is really one case to vote Trump that I can see thus far, and that is the virus is close to being resolved, but people need work. Trump personally has been through those setbacks before, he always has an optimistic outlook and while he is the wrong person to have at the start of the virus outbreak with little empathy to show, most Americans looked towards their state governors, He is probably the person in the right place and time to lead a recovery.

Do you know something that the rest of the world is unaware of?

And linked to a site called "moon of Alabama" with the slogan

"WHERE BARFLIES GET TOGETHER"

And this is what you want us to take seriously?

Pa ElGrande

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Do you know something that the rest of the world is unaware of?

And linked to a site called "moon of Alabama" with the slogan

"WHERE BARFLIES GET TOGETHER"

And this is what you want us to take seriously?

Death rate is down, knowledge about the virus and risks factors are increasing and the medical profession are learning and applying more effective treatment to prevent death. Like every other virus this will eventually run its course.

MoonofAlabama is a left of center blog, that I have followed for a number of years. As regards barflies, I'm posting about an election in a county where I don't live (have worked there previously) and can't vote on, therefore I can't be taken seriously on this subject while I'm posting on boards.ie

Timberrrrrrrr

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Death rate is down, knowledge about the virus and risks factors are increasing and the medical profession are learning and applying more effective treatment to prevent death. Like every other virus this will eventually run its course.

MoonofAlabama is a left of center blog, that I have followed for a number of years. As regards barflies, I'm posting about an election in a county where I don't live (have worked there previously) and can't vote on, therefore I can't be taken seriously on this subject while I'm posting on boards.ie

So not even close to being "resolved".

And blogs are now evidence? :pac:

Tazz T

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

There is really one case to vote Trump that I can see thus far, and that is the virus is close to being resolved, but people need work.

Are you suggesting that Trump was instrumental in 'resolving' the virus? More than 180,000 Americans (and rising) that certainly won't be looking for work would disagree with you. He really couldn't have handled it worse.

Which is why he just can't be trusted to handle the economy.

That said, quite simply, he is the product of a dysfunctional society. That's why he was voted in and his only chance of getting voted in again.