beauf wrote: » Think of this way. One guy has 100 dollars One guy has 50 dollars One quy has 10 dollars. If everyone loses half their money who can buy the thing that's costs 50 dollars. If it falls to 25 dollars. At what point to you think the guy with 10 dollars is going to be able to out bid the other two.
OwlsZat wrote: » He said it was the cost of the build. Which it is. The other costs can be reduced can be reduced easily if the Government actually wanted to.
beauf wrote: » So less supply, less ability to buy... complete agreement..
neutral guy wrote: » All depends at how much people will have 100 Saved ! Because with today rents not much people even have money for food ! Nobody know when recession will happen how hard it will be and for how long.But personaly I think it will be Perfect Storm ! Because this time we are on very bad conditon boat badly damaged during previous recession from which country still did not recover.It will be something very different.
schmittel wrote: » So you are agreeing prices will fall in a recession? What are the associated symptoms?
schmittel wrote: » Seems like we are in agreement that if we have a recession property prices will fall. Seems pretty likely that we will have a recession.
schmittel wrote: » Indeed. Rising unemployment = falling house prices. It seems again we are in complete agreement. Property prices will fall because bad things will happen to the economy.
neutral guy wrote: » The builders will continue build because there will be cheaper labor and cheaper sites The buyers as government clerks and doctors will continue buy those houses. There will be huge supply on second hand market And many empty houses for sale which will be heavily taxed by property tax But nobody will have money and jobs except named above.
beauf wrote: » I wasn't the person focused only on thing, or asking what other symptoms... Then there's this...https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523
The Central Statistics Office’s (CSO)Residential Property Price Index for June indicated property prices nationally rose by 0.1 per cent in the 12 months to June, but were down 0.7 per cent in Dublin, where supply pressures are most acute.
Geuze wrote: » If the rise in unemployment is mainly among people who weren't or aren't in the housing market, then the impact on demand may be limited.
schmittel wrote: » It was a leading question. I was getting at symptoms like rising unemployment which we agree has a negative impact on property prices. I'm not sure what the point of the linked article is. I haven't disputed any of that. My general view is that the impact of Covid will be a recession. The impact of a recession will be a fall in property prices. Nothing in that article changes that view. Indeed this reinforces it:
schmittel wrote: » I keep hearing this theory, but I don't get it. What demographic are going to bear the brunt of the job losses and are not in the housing market?
beauf wrote: » 9 months of those stats are before Covid. Logically Covid can't be the cause of something that was happening before it existed. Nationally it's still a rise even after Covid. The other issue is how laggy are the stats from CSO.
beauf wrote: » Maybe this...https://www.nber.org/digest/jul12/w17951.html#:~:text=Using%20population%20survey%20and%20national,more%20cyclical%20labor%20market%20outcomes US based but there's a general pattern. Of course this time it will be different than all other times. Obviously.
schmittel wrote: » So prices were falling pre covid. Article states we have a short term demand shock and a supply shock thanks to covid. I suspect long term impact of coved will accelerate pre coved trend. It sounds like you don’t think we will have a recession?
Geuze wrote: » Only "government clerks" and doctors will have jobs???
neutral guy wrote: » Do you know how many friends/partners/helpers/family members bring to Dublin every newly elected member of parlament/government !? Who help them get the job with very good wages !? Do you know how many them stay in Dublin buying houses there !? Plenty ! The only people who has the money during the recession is the people who has acces to tax payers money !
Assetbacked wrote: » To me the pandemic has probably put all of this into question and maybe, just maybe, investors may divert their attentions to maybe building apartments for renting as there is of course demand for more professional landlords and more affordable, high quality rentals.
PropQueries wrote: » According to the Laois Nationalist, c. 43% of homes in Co. Laois are worth less than €100k based on the LPT figures for 2020. “OVER four in ten private houses in Laois are worth less than €100,000, according to county council figures. About 29,500 householders in the county pay the local property tax (LPT). A total of 12,744 (43.3%) will pay the lowest rate of €99 next year, as their homes are valued at €100,000 or less.” Article in Laois Nationalist is here: https://laois-nationalist.ie/2020/09/06/over-43-of-laois-homes-are-worth-less-than-e100k/#.X1XmNnlKjIU
The actual charge you pay on the property is based on its value on the valuation date (1 May 2013).
old_house wrote: » No, of course they are not.
The_Conductor wrote: » Depends on a lot of different factors- including, but not limited to, the perception of the regulatory regime. Even now it is thought that there will be deluge of tenancy terminations come the 5th January- as the pandemic protections for those in receipt of emergency payments expire. The perception (rightly or wrongly) is that the regulatory regime in Ireland is such that it just doesn't make sense to try and expand property portfolios for large scale property investors in Ireland. Plenty of large scale landlords have gotten nobbled by the same regulations that were brought in to try and banish the small scale landlords from the sector. Its all well and good giving the REITs defacto tax-free status- however, if it is at a cost of trying to shoehorn a business model on them that they refuse to engage with- even the prospect of tax-free income, simply isn't going to work.
Marius34 wrote: » Just a thought, discussed previously. What is recession? why question towards the future? If we take the definition of two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, quarter-on-quarter, which is widely used by UK. Then likely Ireland will avoid recession at least for this year, and possibly next year. By most other definitions Ireland is well into recession already, since April.
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity.[1][2] Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock).
