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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Justin Credible Darts

At least as a republican Trump has not entered america in another war

ILoveYourVibes

Danzy wrote: »

African Americans die less per 100k arrests than Whites.

Incorrect.

victims were majority white (52%) but disproportionately black (32%) with a fatality rate 2.8 times higher among blacks than whites. Most victims were reported to be armed (83%); however, black victims were more likely to be unarmed (14.8%) than white (9.4%) or Hispanic (5.8%) victims.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6080222/

There are obv more white people arrested. But Black people have a fatality rate of 2.8 times higher.

Yes there are other issues in the black community that also feed this issue. Or affect them in an entirely separate way.

https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/07/16/the-research-is-clear-white-people-are-not-more-likely-than-black-people-to-be-killed-by-police/

When he was asked this week why Black people are “still dying at the hands of law enforcement” in the U.S., President Donald Trump responded by focusing on white people who had been killed by police.
“So are white people. So are white people. What a terrible question to ask. So are white people,” Trump told CBS News in an interview on Tuesday. “More white people, by the way. More white people.”
Northeastern professor Matt Miller says that Trump’s response was a “grotesque” misdirection that fails to account for the fact that Black people are killed by police at a higher rate than white people.

ExMachina1000

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

At least as a republican Trump has not entered america in another war

The old economy and employment rate weren't too bad either.

ILoveYourVibes

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

The old economy and employment rate weren't too bad either.

True. But that is gone now.

ExMachina1000

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

True. But that is gone now.

No different the world over.

[Deleted User]

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

You are wrong. But I will leave it there.

Plus we are in a pandemic i will leave you to work it out how other cases in other countries affect us.

Why should we leave it there ?

Tell us how the poster is wrong ?

Justin Credible Darts

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Incorrect.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6080222/

There are obv more white people arrested. But Black people have a fatality rate of 2.8 times higher.

Yes there are other issues in the black community that also feed this issue. Or affect them in an entirely separate way.

https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/07/16/the-research-is-clear-white-people-are-not-more-likely-than-black-people-to-be-killed-by-police/

who is killing these black people ?

why its the other black people who are committing more murders, despite only being 13% of the population.

Also the police in the US shoot more white people than black people, but that is usually covered up as it does not suit the agenda .
Here is another fact, of the black people shot by the police, they were mostly killed by...wait for it...black and hispanic officers.

I am sure someone will along at some point to label me racist for posting stats that do not go along with the current agenda

Danzy

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

True. But that is gone now.

Coming back surprisingly quick.

Hande hoche!

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

At least as a republican Trump has not entered america in another war

One of the Watergate journalists expressed similar sentiment. It's a reasonable point.

Justin Credible Darts

Hande hoche! wrote: »

One of the Watergate journalists expressed similar sentiment. It's a reasonable point.

I heard Jordan Peterson say it also,

Limpy

If your black women but one parent was White, or if you were born to that women and had a White dad the mother and child are still considered black (African American). Why? They also identify that way for the majority.

If a native American is the women is she native American or black AA.

If an Asian is the women what is she, Asian or black AA?

When white kids are born in America they don't call them Europeans for what the majority are.

Hande hoche!

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

I heard Jordan Peterson say it also,

He has some interesting takes. Poor chap has had a bad year.

[Deleted User]

Limpy wrote: »

If your black women but one parent was White, or if you were born to that women and had a White dad the mother and child are still considered black (African American). Why? They also identify that way for the majority.

If a native American is the women is she native American or black AA.

If an Asian is the women what is she, Asian or black AA?

When white kids are born in America they don't call them Europeans for what the majority are.

Would you get over yourself? I can think of loads of communities that identify with heritage. Have you never heard of Irish Americans, Italian Americans etc?

Brussels Sprout

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

Also the police in the US shoot more white people than black people, but that is usually covered up as it does not suit the agenda .

This old chestnut. Yes, in absolute numbers more white people then black people are killed by police in America. However, there are many times more white people than black people in America. When you look at the rates instead black people are killed in disproportionate numbers.

Last year you were 3.6 times more likely to be shot to death by the police if you were black than if you were white.

police shootings data
US census data for race

ExMachina1000

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

This old chestnut. Yes, in absolute numbers more white people then black people are killed by police in America. However, there are many times more white people than black people in America. When you look at the rates instead black people are killed in disproportionate numbers.

Last year you were 3.6 times more likely to be shot to death by the police if you were black than if you were white.

police shootings data
US census data for race

There are many times less black people in America yet they commit a disproportionate amount of crimes. This leads to a disproportionate amount of interactions with the police. The stats show are there

Pa ElGrande

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

At least as a republican Trump has not entered america in another war

He has not succeeded yet in being able to disentangle the Americans from any of the wars they have gotten involved with and some of that has been bad hires such as John Bolton and James Mattis which have not helped either.

Trump Is Right to Seek an End to America’s Wars
By Jon Finer and Robert Malley

The president’s desire to disentangle the country from costly overseas conflicts must be encouraged.

Mr. Finer is an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Malley is the president and C.E.O. of the International Crisis Group. They served in the Obama administration.

There is no shortage of policies and decisions made by President Trump worth criticizing, but since the earliest days of his presidential campaign, he has expressed at least one belief that deserves to be encouraged, not denigrated: the desire to disentangle the United States from costly overseas conflicts.

Mr. Trump’s noninterventionist impulse has always fit uncomfortably with the team he assembled, particularly the latest, more hawkish iteration in his ever-shifting foreign policy cast. For a time, the President grudgingly deferred, allowing conflicts to escalate in virtually every theater he inherited.

source

There is one (and others) view within the US military that they are over extended, their equipment and men are being worn down in asymmetric warfare conflicts that they are not equipped to deal with and can't win and they can no longer fight a conventional war or sustain one. Hardy a surprise that tactics have changed going head to head on a conventional battlefield with the US army would mean certain defeat. Their motives though are not necessarily peace. The US military industrial complex is not one monolith, there is lots of politics and inter-service rivalry and fiefdoms built that are no longer fit for purpose but have budgets attached. The US military industrial complex is a beast that resists being reformed.

There was a massive public relations campaign in the media to goad the public into supporting war using emotional propaganda to force the Americans to commit large forces to Syria using Samantha Powers responsibility to protect (R2P) doctrine, the weak minds of the Irish media - latest example Joyce Fegan are too gullible to realise that and continue to repeat that propaganda.

US president Trump resisted the media pressure and I have no doubt Western media was acting on behalf of foreign intelligence services like the British and Saudis, he allowed a few token strikes at an air force base but did not go further, and has called for the withdrawal of US troops from Syria yet encountered resistance from domestic politicians and mainstream media.

Trump is aware that his base has no interest in foreign military adventures and were he to do that he would definitely lose re-election, but so far he has been a failure in not ending any of the wars and permitting the stalemate to continue. Unfortunately its easy to start wars, it's not politicly easy to end them it takes lots of manoeuvring behind the scenes.

Danzy

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

There are many times less black people in America yet they commit a disproportionate amount of crimes. This leads to a disproportionate amount of interactions with the police. The stats show are there

Yet given that disproportionate crime rate, and given that they commit a majority of violent and serious crimes, homicide is about 50% depending on years, it is not reflected in the death rate.

Outcome of all this will be more black officers in black neighbourhoods, which given that they are more likely to shoot black people dead will increase the deaths.

Police will be reluctant to interact in African American communities because of the risk of being subjected to a bandwagon, so crime will surge, we already see this, leading to more black people dead.

The protests have destroyed a generation of black businesses across America, destroyed local commerce and shops in black communities, limiting jobs and services, many of them gone for good.

It's fine for the progressives and activists, they are massively suburban rich kids. They'll have their Summer of revolution and let others pick up the pieces.

Brussels Sprout

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

There are many times less black people in America yet they commit a disproportionate amount of crimes.

And why is that?

Danzy

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

And why is that?

Lots of reasons but it is largely a culture and values problem.

The story of war levels of murder and crime in African American communities is a story of a half dozen cities where gang violence and culture is endemic.

There are no shortage of people in America, black and white who live in poverty we can't comprehend outside of those areas who are not doing so.

Unless we want to pretend share croppers in Alabama didn't have it rough.

ExMachina1000

"Poor kids are just as bright as white kids"

"We choose truth over facts"

"Covid has taken this year,just since the outbreak, has taken more than a hundred years... Look. Here's.. The lives.. Its just... I mean, think about it"

Almost 79 years of age. Trump will eat him for breakfast come the debates. ( If he shows up)

Brussels Sprout

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

No idea. Why do you think it is?

Getting back to my post. Do you agree with my statement?

Nice deflection from an uncomfortable topic. Why should I give my opinion if you are unwilling to give yours? It's easy to attack posts.

As for your statement which was "Blacks commit more crimes". I would counter that with the view that we you can't actually tell that to be the case. They certainly get charged with a lot more crimes and get heavier sentences.

If cops need to fill their quotas for the month it's not the white neighbourhoods that they go to to start randomly searching teens for drugs possession or pulling over drivers for petty excuses. Nobody at the major banks went to jail for the criminally, negligent practices that caused the 2008 financial crash but Eric Garner was choked to death by the police while being arrested for selling loose cigarettes and George Floyd was choked to death while being arrested for trying to pass off a fake $20 bill.

Kyle Rittenhouse shot two people dead and walked toward the police in surrender, with his rifle still in his hands, while people shouted follwed behind and shouted to the police telling him what he had just done. They ignored him entirely and he wasn't arrested until the next day in a different state.

In contrast, Philando Castile was pulled over in his car while driving with his family and immediately informed the office that he had a gun in the car. They killed him anyway.

If you're white in America it's a hell of a lot easier to commit a crime and not suffer the consequences then if you are black.

MadYaker

These comments about veterans are doing damage. Trumps inability to ever admit he was wrong or apologise for anything is a weakness.

ExMachina1000

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Nice deflection from an uncomfortable topic. Why should I give my opinion if you are unwilling to give yours? It's easy to attack posts.

As for your statement which was "Blacks commit more crimes". I would counter that with the view that we you can't actually tell that to be the case. They certainly get charged with a lot more crimes and get heavier sentences.

If cops need to fill their quotas for the month it's not the white neighbourhoods that they go to to start randomly searching teens for drugs possession or pulling over drivers for petty excuses. Nobody at the major banks went to jail for the criminally, negligent practices that caused the 2008 financial crash but Eric Garner was choked to death by the police while being arrested for selling loose cigarettes and George Floyd was choked to death while being arrested for trying to pass off a fake $20 bill.

Kyle Rittenhouse shot two people dead and walked toward the police in surrender, with his rifle still in his hands, while people shouted follwed behind and shouted to the police telling him what he had just done. They ignored him entirely and he wasn't arrested until the next day in a different state.

In contrast, Philando Castile was pulled over in his car while driving with his family and immediately informed the office that he had a gun in the car. They killed him anyway.

If you're white in America it's a hell of a lot easier to commit a crime and not suffer the consequences then if you are black.

It's not an uncomfortable topic to me at all. Blacks commit more crimes as per the stats. Why do they do this? I don't know I don't live in America.

Talking about black crime and then going off about financial crises and bankers is nonsensical

Do you live in America?

Brussels Sprout

Danzy wrote: »

Lots of reasons but it is largely a culture and values problem.

That's convenient. Placing all the blame on the individual rather than the system

Nothing to do with the chronic lack of investment in schools and healthcare
Nothing to do with the red-lining of "nice" areas keeping the blacks out
Nothing to do with disproportionate sentencing for traditionally black crimes vs whites ones (Crack cocaine vs powder cocaine sentencing for example)
Nothing to do with gerrymandered electoral districts
Nothing to do with locking people out of the GI Bill which was one of the greatest elevators of social status for white people in post-war America
Nothing to do with food deserts in inner city areas

I could go on but frankly it's depressing especially since there's no point in arguing with people who are willfully ignorant.

Brussels Sprout

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Why do they do this? I don't know I don't live in America.

That hasn't stopped you having opinions about everything else. You're one of the post prolific posters in this thread and it's 100% Trumpian dogma. I'm done

Limpy

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

He has not succeeded yet in being able to disentangle the Americans from any of the wars they have gotten involved with and some of that has been bad hires such as John Bolton and James Mattis which have not helped either.

Trump Is Right to Seek an End to America’s Wars
By Jon Finer and Robert Malley

There is one (and others) view within the US military that they are over extended, their equipment and men are being worn down in asymmetric warfare conflicts that they are not equipped to deal with and can't win and they can no longer fight a conventional war or sustain one. Hardy a surprise that tactics have changed going head to head on a conventional battlefield with the US army would mean certain defeat. Their motives though are not necessarily peace. The US military industrial complex is not one monolith, there is lots of politics and inter-service rivalry and fiefdoms built that are no longer fit for purpose but have budgets attached. The US military industrial complex is a beast that resists being reformed.

There was a massive public relations campaign in the media to goad the public into supporting war using emotional propaganda to force the Americans to commit large forces to Syria using Samantha Powers responsibility to protect (R2P) doctrine, the weak minds of the Irish media - latest example Joyce Fegan are too gullible to realise that and continue to repeat that propaganda.

US president Trump resisted the media pressure and I have no doubt Western media was acting on behalf of foreign intelligence services like the British and Saudis, he allowed a few token strikes at an air force base but did not go further, and has called for the withdrawal of US troops from Syria yet encountered resistance from domestic politicians and mainstream media.

Trump is aware that his base has no interest in foreign military adventures and were he to do that he would definitely lose re-election, but so far he has been a failure in not ending any of the wars and permitting the stalemate to continue. Unfortunately its easy to start wars, it's not politicly easy to end them it takes lots of manoeuvring behind the scenes.

Covid19 has gave us world peace. When it's done the Media and US military will be back on the same page. How to get sucker's to fight war's.

MadYaker

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

It's not an uncomfortable topic to me at all. Blacks commit more crimes as per the stats. Why do they do this? I don't know I don't live in America.

Talking about black crime and then going off about financial crises and bankers is nonsensical

Do you live in America?

The links between poverty and crime are well established. Last year a study in the huffington post that I can't find now estimated that around 30% of african americans live below the poverty line. It's a really complex problem that has developed over the last few centuries since the slaves were freed. You simply saying it's their own fault is a very simplistic view.

Eric Cartman

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

That's convenient. Placing all the blame on the individual rather than the system
Nothing to do with the chronic lack of investment in schools and healthcare

Nothing to do with the red-lining of "nice" areas keeping the blacks out

Nothing to do with disproportionate sentencing for traditionally black crimes vs whites ones (Crack cocaine vs powder cocaine sentencing for example)

Nothing to do with gerrymandered electoral districts

Nothing to do with locking people out of the GI Bill which was one of the greatest elevators of social status for white people in post-war America

Nothing to do with food deserts in inner city areas

I could go on but frankly it's depressing especially since there's no point in arguing with people who are willfully ignorant.

Theres definitely a lot more personal cultural issues that perpetuate the issues though.

One of the largest ones is the culture of fathering multiple children by multiple women and not taking care of any of them, leading those children to grow up with no positive male role models.

The aids crisis hit the black communities in america much harder than white communities because of a cultural propensity for promiscuity, turns out the problems that causes are much greater and long lasting.

Man with broke phone

The democrats keep trying to make it a black v white if you arnt with us you are racist thing, it will spectacularly backfire.

They have allowed it to become chaos v law and order.
Childish name calling v reasoned debate.
Drone striking one war monger general v putting poor farm boys in Iran.
Lazy v workers.

The ballot day gives people privacy to vote for who they want without somebody judging them. It will be a total bloodbath. The political power will be there for full riot squad action.

ExMachina1000

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I'm done

Ok no problem