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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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lintdrummer

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Shannon maybe days numbered?

Shannon's strategic importance as ETOPS alternate makes it very unlikely to be in any danger of closing. What kind of regular passenger services it has going forward is another story.

L1011

lintdrummer wrote: »

Shannon's strategic importance as ETOPS alternate makes it very unlikely to be in any danger of closing. What kind of regular passenger services it has going forward is another story.

If nobody is willing to pay for its services on a regular basis, it'll close - strategic reserve importance or not.

We may need to look at levying TATL airlines to keep Shannon (and Gander etc) going, or else they'll be gone. Look at the light duties on ships for an example there, US<->UK ships still contribute to Irish lights.

A neglected runway alone is bugger all use for the majority of emergencies; you need high enough grade fire cover and suitable GSE.

Cookiemunster

L1011 wrote: »

If nobody is willing to pay for its services on a regular basis, it'll close - strategic reserve importance or not.

We may need to look at levying TATL airlines to keep Shannon (and Gander etc) going, or else they'll be gone. Look at the light duties on ships for an example there, US<->UK ships still contribute to Irish lights.

A neglected runway alone is bugger all use for the majority of emergencies; you need high enough grade fire cover and suitable GSE.

Private jets, cargos and the MROs still using Shannon. Its not a total ghost town.

L1011

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Private jets, cargos and the MROs still using Shannon. Its not a total ghost town.

Not going to keep the lights on on their own.

HTCOne

L1011 wrote: »

If nobody is willing to pay for its services on a regular basis, it'll close - strategic reserve importance or not.

We may need to look at levying TATL airlines to keep Shannon (and Gander etc) going, or else they'll be gone. Look at the light duties on ships for an example there, US<->UK ships still contribute to Irish lights.

A neglected runway alone is bugger all use for the majority of emergencies; you need high enough grade fire cover and suitable GSE.

These types of charges used to be levied on airlines by ICAO and given to Shannon, Gander and Keflavik for sure, possibly Prestwick and Santa Maria too. They were done away with years ago as there are commercially accessible alternates nearby that don't need subsidies such as DUB, YYT, or in the case of KEF, it got busy enough to stand on its own two feet.

Cork has been busier than Shannon most days during COVID. When the new runway in DUB opens, Shannon's only advantage over DUB for EMG diversions is gone. Shannon had already cut their fire cover at night pre COVID, can't remember whether it's CAT 6 or CAT 8 now during night time, haven't seen the NOTAM in a while.

Shannon is definitely the most vulnerable of the 3 state airports.

HTCOne wrote: »

These types of charges used to be levied on airlines by ICAO and given to Shannon, Gander and Keflavik for sure, possibly Prestwick and Santa Maria too. They were done away with years ago as there are commercially accessible alternates nearby that don't need subsidies such as DUB, YYT, or in the case of KEF, it got busy enough to stand on it's own two feet.

Cork has been busier than Shannon most days during COVID. When the new runway in DUB opens, Shannon's only advantage over DUB for EMG diversions is gone. Shannon had already cut their fire cover at night pre COVID, can't remember whether it's CAT 6 or CAT 8 now during night time, haven't seen the NOTAM in a while.

Shannon is definitely the most vulnerable of the 3 state airports.

Shannon is CAT7 all the time but can be CAT9 at short notice to facilitate larger aircraft such as the Omni 777s, Turkish Cargo 747s and any other adhoc flights.

HTCOne

BZ wrote: »

Shannon is CAT7 all the time but can be CAT9 at short notice to facilitate larger aircraft such as the Omni 777s, Turkish Cargo 747s and any other adhoc flights.

Ah, so they made the cuts even more widespread. That rings a bell alright. Thanks.

HTCOne

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Private jets, cargos and the MROs still using Shannon. Its not a total ghost town.

Even still it is the quietest of the 3 State airports, both before and since COVID, and few of those aircraft need the big expensive passenger terminal. Remote tower (which has already been successfully trialed), Flight Information Service or uncontrolled airfield are all also possible.

As I’ve said it is my local airport and losing it would devastate many local businesses, but it is going to have the toughest fight for survival.

Cookiemunster

HTCOne wrote: »

Even still it is the quietest of the 3 State airports, both before and since COVID, and few of those aircraft need the big expensive passenger terminal. Remote tower (which has already been successfully trialed), Flight Information Service or uncontrolled airfield are all also possible.

As I’ve said it is my local airport and losing it would devastate many local businesses, but it is going to have the toughest fight for survival.

It's a state owned airport though. The state are not going to shut down any of the three airports. It would be political suicide.

gral6

Cookiemunster wrote: »

It's a state owned airport though. The state are not going to shut down any of the three airports. It would be political suicide.

Why not? So far the Gov is managing well enough with that.

opinionated3

gral6 wrote: »

Why not? So far the Gov is managing well enough with that.

I can tell you now, if Shannon is closed, FF and FG will never see a candidate returned in Clare or Limerick ever again. That's how high feelings run around this issue

HTCOne

Cookiemunster wrote: »

It's a state owned airport though. The state are not going to shut down any of the three airports. It would be political suicide.

I don’t necessarily disagree, but the current situation is so unprecedented for our industry, all our certainties need to be left at the door I feel. Who would have thought we’d see a day where Shannon went an entire summer without flights to North America? And looks likely do the same next summer? Who thought we’d see a 90% drop in air traffic across the State? Who thought Aer Lingus’ route map would essentially revert to the 1960s from Ireland? 50% wage cuts here, 70% there. Anything is possible now unfortunately.

Irish Steve

opinionated3 wrote: »

I can tell you now, if Shannon is closed, FF and FG will never see a candidate returned in Clare or Limerick ever again. That's how high feelings run around this issue

And you really think any other political party will be capable of squaring that circle?

If it didn't exist, there is no way that a brand new airport would be built at Shannon, but the fact that it is there, with the size runway that it has, and has a range of industries both aviation related and otherwise means that it should be capable of continuing to survive, but as to if it can survive with the present size of terminal and the like is a very different story, and at some stage, those issues are going to have to be addressed by all the stakeholders, and all the political parties, the long term future of Shannon HAS to be looked at on a wider basis than just the party political parish pump level that all too often completely damns Irish Political life.

Van.Bosch

Irish Steve wrote: »

And you really think any other political party will be capable of squaring that circle?

If it didn't exist, there is no way that a brand new airport would be built at Shannon, but the fact that it is there, with the size runway that it has, and has a range of industries both aviation related and otherwise means that it should be capable of continuing to survive, but as to if it can survive with the present size of terminal and the like is a very different story, and at some stage, those issues are going to have to be addressed by all the stakeholders, and all the political parties, the long term future of Shannon HAS to be looked at on a wider basis than just the party political parish pump level that all too often completely damns Irish Political life.

I’d say a few years of no/minuscule traffic would be needed to show it’s dead before any politician even toyed with the idea.

Unfortunately that could be starting this year.

NH2013

HTCOne wrote: »

When the new runway in DUB opens, Shannon's only advantage over DUB for EMG diversions is gone.

Unfortunately, the new runway in Dublin while longer than the current one for taking off, due to the planned displaced threshold on the new 28R/10L, the actual landing distance available will only be approximately 50m longer than the current 28/10, and still significantly too short for most aircraft, particularly heavy widebody aircraft to land on above their maximum landing weights.

Whether that will serve as a reason to keep Shannon going or not remains to be seen, but it is a factor that will have to be considered.

Another short sighted decision on behalf of aviation and infastructure in Ireland. :rolleyes:

L1011

There are now political demands for it to be brought back under the DAA, after having been moved out seperate due to political demands... the airport equivalent of a cat at the back door.

3d4life

Whats the cost of having SNN 'open' per year ? ( assume min capex and no airport income )

Inquitus

3d4life wrote: »

Whats the cost of having SNN 'open' per year ? ( assume min capex and no airport income )

The Depreciation charge on the airport and terminal building is €3m annually on its own.

IngazZagni

NH2013 wrote: »

Unfortunately, the new runway in Dublin while longer than the current one for taking off, due to the planned displaced threshold on the new 28R/10L, the actual landing distance available will only be approximately 50m longer than the current 28/10, and still significantly too short for most aircraft, particularly heavy widebody aircraft to land on above their maximum landing weights.

Whether that will serve as a reason to keep Shannon going or not remains to be seen, but it is a factor that will have to be considered.

Another short sighted decision on behalf of aviation and infastructure in Ireland. :rolleyes:

Has this always been the case? What the hell is the reason for the displaced thresholds? Madness.

HTCOne

NH2013 wrote: »

Unfortunately, the new runway in Dublin while longer than the current one for taking off, due to the planned displaced threshold on the new 28R/10L, the actual landing distance available will only be approximately 50m longer than the current 28/10, and still significantly too short for most aircraft, particularly heavy widebody aircraft to land on above their maximum landing weights.

Whether that will serve as a reason to keep Shannon going or not remains to be seen, but it is a factor that will have to be considered.

Another short sighted decision on behalf of aviation and infastructure in Ireland. :rolleyes:

DUB will still be the number one choice for emergency aircraft in Irish airspace for widebodies, particularly at night (it is already), due the lack of immediate required level of fire cover at Shannon. No 777 / A350 / 787 etc is going to hold with a dying passenger or fire alarm in the baggage compartment while the on call fire crews get to Shannon. And if they can visual the landing they can land prior to the displaced threshold anyway. If anything the idea of doing that would appeal to the yanks in particular.

HTCOne

IngazZagni wrote: »

Has this always been the case? What the hell is the reason for the displaced thresholds? Madness.

Sometimes it is for noise abatement, keeps aircraft higher until within the airport perimeter to keep nimbys happy. Sometimes it is for obstacle clearance on the final approach. No idea why they’ve done it in DUB, unless it is to prevent a GE90 sending our transient cousins living at the 28L threshold on a free flight to Wales?

Edit: Forgot departures can use full length. Maybe they’re worried about wind shear from the hangars like on RWY 24 at Shannon? That’s caused a few accidents in its time.

rivegauche

NH2013 wrote: »

Unfortunately, the new runway in Dublin while longer than the current one for taking off, due to the planned displaced threshold on the new 28R/10L, the actual landing distance available will only be approximately 50m longer than the current 28/10, and still significantly too short for most aircraft, particularly heavy widebody aircraft to land on above their maximum landing weights.

Whether that will serve as a reason to keep Shannon going or not remains to be seen, but it is a factor that will have to be considered.

Another short sighted decision on behalf of aviation and infastructure in Ireland. :rolleyes:

As long as Aer Lingus A321LRs and maybe XLRs in the future (and similar from other airlines) can get in an out of the airport who really cares except for empire builders.

Growler!!!

HTCOne wrote: »

DUB will still be the number one choice for emergency aircraft in Irish airspace for widebodies, particularly at night (it is already), due the lack of immediate required level of fire cover at Shannon. No 777 / A350 / 787 etc is going to hold with a dying passenger or fire alarm in the baggage compartment while the on call fire crews get to Shannon. And if they can visual the landing they can land prior to the displaced threshold anyway. If anything the idea of doing that would appeal to the yanks in particular.

My crowd (wide body operator) have a flight coming across the Atlantic tonight, SNN is the nominated enroute alternate between 01z and 04z. We can operate with the RFF cover temp reduced to 7.

Our ops manual allows us to land within the touchdown zone but forbids landing before a displaced threshold. It can be used for take off but not landing.

Cosmo Kramer

If the financial viability of Shannon in its current form had any bearing on its continued operation it would have been shut down years ago.

There is absolutely no need, since the improvement of the road network, for an airport of the physical size of Shannon to continue to operate at that location. There is, however, probably justification for a small to moderate sized regional airport to serve Limerick and the mid west, serving around 1m passengers a year, with some limited small scale cargo operations.

There is no need for night time operation, emergency cover or, being honest, transatlantic services at Shannon any more. A moderate UK and European network of city and sun routes is all that is needed, alongside a connection to Heathrow or another major hub airport.

Whether the current situation will finally bring about the badly warranted resizing of the airport remains to be seen, but any proposed cuts will be met by large scale local opposition, regardless of the validity of the arguments.

Chris_5339762

Shannon is now very well connected to Dublin via the N18/M7 and will (eventually) be very well connected to Cork once the M20/N40 get done. Then its just asking to be closed.

I have no doubt that it won't be closed though. Not in Ireland with the Parish Pump.

opinionated3

Shannon is desperately needed for the future of the Midwest. People here are sick of seeing Dublin get everything. Time is spread the wealth around a bit, hence the pressure on all our local TDs...

Jack1985

Christ this mantra of Dublin getting everything is such a brain-dead comment that doesn't take any facts into account except locality politics. I hear the same nonsense spouted in my own hometown.

Dublin is the capital city, with the largest and wealthiest catchment area, best infrastructure in the state to all cities and towns and largest airport facility in the country. Airlines operate there for those reasons and there is massive choice as a result it is on that basis why people travel from all corner points of Ireland to this Airport including from the other largest cities of Belfast and Cork.

They aren't charities and don't operate their business models with giving fair shares to regions of Ireland - They operate to make money and they will never make money diverging business on the basis to make happy unemployable TD's in a region where the skilled population and wealth is reducing.

I'm sorry these are facts and you may not like them but it will not change in the next decade.

L1011

opinionated3 wrote: »

Shannon is desperately needed for the future of the Midwest. People here are sick of seeing Dublin get everything. Time is spread the wealth around a bit, hence the pressure on all our local TDs...

Basically the entire country outside of Greater Dublin (+Galway City) is funded using left overs from Dublin's taxation.

The Greater Dublin Area has a massive infrastructure deficit, not helped by funding everything everywhere else.

Dublin does not "get everything"

opinionated3

Based on your logic so, the best of business's and investment should go to the capital, and to hell with the rest of us. Sums up this country in a nutshell I guess.

Noxegon

I don't think it's that unreasonable to suggest that the majority of taxes should be spent in the county they are collected in.