greyday wrote: » You need to compare Sweden with Finland as Norway exports mainly petroleum which got hit vastly more than most other products during the pandemic.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I have no first hand experience of people who suffer with their mental health. I would assume that lock down contributes to their struggle. Certainly, I find the isolation challenging and I have not been looking after my health as well as before, i.e. alcohol, diet and exercise.
cnocbui wrote: » No I don't, because I also took a peek at Oct 2019 figures.
greyday wrote: » Notice I said herd immunity rather than just immunity, some infected people are showing barely detectable antibodies which is a major concern.
Bit cynical wrote: » I noticed but it is not necessary to have herd immunity to benefit from immunity. You could have something short of herd-immunity and, when combined with some level of comparatively light restriction, still see rates come down. If, on the other hand, you have little or no restrictions, then you need comparatively harsh restrictions to keep numbers down (the R value below 1).
cnocbui wrote: » Roughly speaking, the most recent monthly export figures in € Billions for Sweden, Norway and Denmark, were 11.6, 5.2 and 5, respectively, so Sweden had exports of more than the other two combined.
Boggles wrote: » I'm sorry you found it challenging, I'm not suggesting for a second people didn't. But trust me for an enormous amount of people it was very good for their mental well being and health and society in general. Lets be honest, Ireland's "lockdown" was timid at best, we were absolutely blessed with the weather and any notion that our liberties had been ripped from us was expelled from my mind every time I passed the local shop and saw a massive line waiting for cones. The main gripes before "lockdown" at least in my circle, was bills, mortgage and childcare being at the top, the amount of time in the rat race, travelling to work, hours in the car and all the stress that came with that. The brake was applied to all that for a large portion of the population almost instantaneously. Exercise and spending time with the family became the norm, reaching out to people you hadn't heard from in years, the community spirit of helping those who couldn't help themselves. For those with young families it was actually like being retired for a couple of months but they got to spend time with the kids before they became adults. It was a truly unique situation and I would guess a largely positive one in terms of actual health and mental well being overall. That's before you even consider the drop in pollution levels and the general day to day hazards of large amounts of people moving around and interacting.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Meanwhile, when the winter comes and people retreat indoors, our numbers will probably increase leading to us locking down again. If that happens would you agree the Swedes had the correct approach?
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Some of what you say is true in that there were/are positives to the lock down, especially if you are nervous about your health or know that your salary and job are secure. More so, if you are getting paid the same or more to not work. But this is not free money and will have to be repaid. There is also a social cost in that our children have been out of education since March. As regards the virus, what if the Swedish were correct and obtain numbers approaching herd immunity levels then their numbers will stay low. Meanwhile, when the winter comes and people retreat indoors, our numbers will probably increase leading to us locking down again. If that happens would you agree the Swedes had the correct approach?
Boggles wrote: » We have a lot milder winter than Sweden with more sunlight.
What is their Herd Immunity status at the moment?
greyday wrote: » If Sweden are proven to be correct, why would we lock down anywhere other than those places looking after the most vulnerable?
greyday wrote: » So put up the figures that are not distorted by one Country exporting a commodity which has been particularly hit during the pandemic. The figures you put up seem to say Finland no worse than Sweden, they export 55 billion yearly, Sweden export 135 Billion.
cnocbui wrote: » Exports for Oct 2019 - billion Euros. Norway: 7.17 Denmark: 8.94 Sweden: 13.3
Spiderman0081 wrote: » Sweden’s unemployment rate is not 17%, it is 9,8%. I think you are talking about the extra people who are “korttidspermitterade”. Companies were able to reduce the amount of working hours of their employees if it was temporarily necessary. The government covers the hours lost up to approximately 90% of most wages for those hours. These people are by no means unemployed.
greyday wrote: » Choosing months is not really the way to got but you know that.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Absolutely!
cnocbui wrote: » That is the way the data is presented on the website I was using. Don't do your back in moving those goal posts to suit your agenda.
greyday wrote: » Has this not been obvious? We are very similar to Sweden at the moment but with a far lower infection rate even with the recent spike. The data is not available one way or another so we choose the most cautious way until the data becomes available.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Well, say it becomes apparent in November/December that there is immunity (partial/temporary or otherwise) in Sweden. What politician will admit they chose the wrong path? Anyway at that stage, the Irish population will have reduced immune systems. Seasonal flu will be due. Other winter respiratory illnesses will be causing increased hospitalization for the weak. Children will hopefully be in school most likely spreading infection of the various bugs and probably corona. People will have less patience and reduced compliance with the covid measures. So, we let corona rip?? I wonder how that would work with "A Safe Return to Health Services - restoring services in a COVID Environment, July 22 2020"https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/ I think then is too late and we will need to wait until the spring.
greyday wrote: » Politicians will only be too willing to go another way if the data supports it rather than close the economy again,
We have more knowledge and a change of behaviour on our side now which is something we didn't have when this all started.
Even if Swedens strategy proves correct, it would be naive to think others were wrong as Sweden has gambled while others have done what was advised by experts, there is no other way IMO to describe Swedens strategy other than a gamble, they did not know if herd immunity could be achieved but ploughed ahead regardless.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Anyway the Swedish numbers are looking like they were correct.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » You really believe this? They will create some cross party committee to recommend the way forward, get some PR spin on it and then it will probably be spring anyway. The spin will be "Living with Corona" and maybe they will change the yellow posters to blue. They didn't release a detailed breakdown on deaths by age until very recently. Why was that? I would suggest that they've known for months how dangerous it is to younger and middle aged people. I do agree with you here. We're not great at following the rules. Well they never stated that there were looking for herd immunity but I agree that they were hoping for it. They mainly stated that they were looking for a sustainable solution. Our solution is far from viable. Will we have an emergency budget? If you look back at old interviews with Johan Giesecke, he stated Covid was probably just slightly worse than a bad flu season. He also asked how you get out of lock down once you go in. This to me is a very pertinent question as 5 months on we still aren't out of lock down. Anyway the Swedish numbers are looking like they were correct.
greyday wrote: » Johan Giesecke
i_surge wrote: » Not exactly, if you look at the rate of new cases they don't look great. Ultimately it is deaths that matter and after that the numbers who have life altering complications (is there any info on the rates?) vs. the effect on the economy. Still early in that race. They have a higher baseline of infected to try get back to true normality from but they seem to be a wiser, more compliant society. Why aren't the US states that opposed lockdown not included in the same analysis? To be objective.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I haven't looked at the US situation whatsoever but I believe New York is doing well now?
i_surge wrote: » He said all countries will have the same outcome in the end. Seems like an impossibility to me if you compare Brasil to New Zealand or USA to China.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I agree that it's deaths that show the trends which we also are not doing too bad in. I also would love to see any data on life altering complications after infection. If that was happening wouldn't the government use it to get people to wear masks and stop house parties? I haven't looked at the US situation whatsoever but I believe New York is doing well now?
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