joeguevara wrote: » I think you are misunderstanding me. I completely agree with you and understand about excess mortality.
Bit cynical wrote: » Just on the age breakdown in Ireland and Sweden, There was someone on here saying he was glad he lived in Ireland because he was 70. But, in fact, it probably does not make a huge amount of difference. If we control for age, Ireland and Sweden have performed roughly the same. Sources: Ireland population (2016): CSO.ie Ireland deaths by age bracket: Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland Sweden Population: SCB.se Sweden deaths by age: Statistica
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » This is probably the best post on this thread in analysing the results of the Swedish strategy. It's pure data. I hadn't seen a NPHET breakdown of deaths by age before this and it was very revealing. Breaking down the numbers I see that from an Irish population of 637,567 aged over 65, we had 1644 deaths so 0.257%. From a Swedish population of 2,610,774 aged over 60 yrs, they had 5512 deaths so 0.211%. So deaths were, 0.25% of over 65's in Ireland and 0.21% of over 60's in Sweden. I looked into Charlie's opinion and links for excess deaths in Sweden. While I certainly accept that the Swedes could be under reporting, it is not possible to draw that conclusion from the available data. I couldn't find a monthly breakdown of deaths in Sweden and I think it's over simplistic to divide the 2019 deaths by 2 and then say any deaths over that for Jan-Jun 2020 are Covid related. Deaths will fluctuate over the year so for example, with an usually bad winter or bad flu season you would expect excess deaths and then less the following year. I found the following article interesting.https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I looked into Charlie's opinion and links for excess deaths in Sweden. While I certainly accept that the Swedes could be under reporting, it is not possible to draw that conclusion from the available data. I couldn't find a monthly breakdown of deaths in Sweden and I think it's over simplistic to divide the 2019 deaths by 2 and then say any deaths over that for Jan-Jun 2020 are Covid related. Deaths will fluctuate over the year so for example, with an usually bad winter or bad flu season you would expect excess deaths and then less the following year. I found the following article interesting.https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/
FintanMcluskey wrote: » The way I interpret that data is I cant see a correlation between a lack of restrictions and a high death toll, certaintly for the countries compared
greyday wrote: » When you compare Sweden to its neighbours, you can most certainly see a correlation between strict lockdowns and a big reduction in deaths.
charlie14 wrote: » I don`t think it is quite as simple to explain away as a bad Winter or bad flu season. If you look at the euromomo graph for Sweden deaths were below the baseline for the last 10 week of 2019 until the 12th week of 2020. Excess deaths only move above the baseline in week 12. From week 12 until week 30 (17th. July) excess deaths are 2,000 greater than Covid -19 deaths for those weeks. Is it even plausible that between the start of April until the middle of July that something is causing the majority of this 35% of the excess deaths of Covid-19, other than Covid-19 ?
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Up to now I had never heard of euromomo. I'll have a look. Do you know how they source their data? My point above was that if for example, there is a nasty flu or cold snap in December then there would be excess deaths. The same flu/weather in January would kill less because the at risk already succumbed. I was questioning the logic, due to limited data, that you used to calculate excess deaths in Sweden.
charlie14 wrote: » I would have though neighbouring countries with much in common would be the most telling comparison.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Correlation is not causation is a common subject in statistics. Does increased ice cream consumption lead to more drownings?
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Briefly, why do you think this? Climate, social behaviour, ethnicity, living conditions, demographics or does the virus behave differently at certain latitudes?
charlie14 wrote: » Just on that topic Fintan. How does that theory stack up in relation to Sweden and the other Nordic countries? I notice you have now done the calculations for Italy as well as Ireland, and with their much smaller numbers the Nordic countries should be no problem for you.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I'm surprised. I assumed that the virus was less widespread here compared to Sweden because of the lockdown. Could be that care homes in both countries were badly hit while the rest of the Irish population hasn't been. I have a family friend who does some work in a very large nursing home and apparently they had huge infection rates in that home. Or could be that lock downs made very little difference as the virus was already well established in Ireland by March.
tobefrank321 wrote: » His point is the idea of an Irish person criticising Sweden is farcical. Compliment Finland or Norway if you want but to criticise Sweden when we did no better for the elderly is frankly shameful.
ittakestwo wrote: » But if we had followed the Swedish approach more elderly would have died. The two countries were not at the same starting position at the beginning of March when European countries first started lock downs. It seems Ireland was already more effected than Sweden in early March. All you can say. If from early March Ireland had followed Sweden's approach more elderly would have died with the peak deaths occurring in June instead of April. If Sweden had followed Ireland's from early March then less elderly would have died there with a peak in April. So from decisions taken from early March then yes we did do a better job at protecting the elderly.
greyday wrote: » Sweden had an advantage over the rest of Europe with approximately 50% of households being 1 person households, they decided to experiment and have seen multiples of deaths compared to their neighbours despite their advantage.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » It wasn't an experiment. It was a cost benefit analysis. The decided the cost of life would perhaps be less taking the approach they did. The media convinced you the lockdown wouldnt cost any life, thats a risky chance
charlie14 wrote: » One year has practically the same spike for the first 6 months as it does for the second six months. The other years have practically all months within the baseline with no difference between the first and second 6 months. Do you know of some reason for the first 6 months of this year that has caused 2,000 excess deaths over and above 5,500 Covid-19 deaths ?
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Lets follow the statistics for now. They show Sweden has protected its citizen's as well as Ireland. Ill use statistics, you can use some very iffy whataboutery
ittakestwo wrote: » I am looking at the stats. Sweden's daily peak did not happen till June 25th in cases. If you look at the curve for cases and deaths the Sweden curve does not fall as quick as their neighbors or Ireland throughout May and June. It is fair to say their curve of deaths would have fallen in the same way as their neighbors if they had implemented a similar approach as their neighbors and Ireland. Which would have resulted in less elderly deaths in Sweden.
mcsean2163 wrote: » For any interested: Data from 23 participating European countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality. See attached. Note that deaths typically peak around winter. Euro mono shows only a z score with respect to baseline. Again look at attached image.
charlie14 wrote: » But we are not talking about Winter. We are talking about an excess of 2,000 deaths over and above reported Covid-19 deaths from April until 17th. July. Euromomo shows that deaths were below the baseline for each week up until week 12. From what you have posted if peak deaths are in Winter then deaths would be greater in the second half of the year. In which case the excess deaths are even greater for the first half as the figure is based on a 50/50 split.
