greyday wrote: » When you compare Sweden to its neighbours, you can most certainly see a correlation between strict lockdowns and a big reduction in deaths.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » The way I interpret that data is I cant see a correlation between a lack of restrictions and a high death toll, certaintly for the countries compared
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I looked into Charlie's opinion and links for excess deaths in Sweden. While I certainly accept that the Swedes could be under reporting, it is not possible to draw that conclusion from the available data. I couldn't find a monthly breakdown of deaths in Sweden and I think it's over simplistic to divide the 2019 deaths by 2 and then say any deaths over that for Jan-Jun 2020 are Covid related. Deaths will fluctuate over the year so for example, with an usually bad winter or bad flu season you would expect excess deaths and then less the following year. I found the following article interesting.https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » This is probably the best post on this thread in analysing the results of the Swedish strategy. It's pure data. I hadn't seen a NPHET breakdown of deaths by age before this and it was very revealing. Breaking down the numbers I see that from an Irish population of 637,567 aged over 65, we had 1644 deaths so 0.257%. From a Swedish population of 2,610,774 aged over 60 yrs, they had 5512 deaths so 0.211%. So deaths were, 0.25% of over 65's in Ireland and 0.21% of over 60's in Sweden. I looked into Charlie's opinion and links for excess deaths in Sweden. While I certainly accept that the Swedes could be under reporting, it is not possible to draw that conclusion from the available data. I couldn't find a monthly breakdown of deaths in Sweden and I think it's over simplistic to divide the 2019 deaths by 2 and then say any deaths over that for Jan-Jun 2020 are Covid related. Deaths will fluctuate over the year so for example, with an usually bad winter or bad flu season you would expect excess deaths and then less the following year. I found the following article interesting.https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/
Bit cynical wrote: » Just on the age breakdown in Ireland and Sweden, There was someone on here saying he was glad he lived in Ireland because he was 70. But, in fact, it probably does not make a huge amount of difference. If we control for age, Ireland and Sweden have performed roughly the same. Sources: Ireland population (2016): CSO.ie Ireland deaths by age bracket: Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland Sweden Population: SCB.se Sweden deaths by age: Statistica
joeguevara wrote: » I think you are misunderstanding me. I completely agree with you and understand about excess mortality.
charlie14 wrote: » Being easily amused you may have missed the point. These are not predicted deaths brought forward from the second half of the year. They are actual deaths during the first half of the year that show an excess of 2,000 deaths above reported Covid-19 deaths for the first half of the year. Or to be exact from week 12 until the 17th. of July.
joeguevara wrote: » I know that I'm easily amused but I find it hilarious reading posts about excess mortality and bringing forward deaths from the second half of the year which have not yet occurred and being allocated to the first six months. It conjured up an image of a smoky room in an accountants office in Stockholm, where an elderly accountant bursts into a room screaming 'That b1tch Inge Johannsen was not supposed to die until November the 28th and she died yesterday. This is going to fcuck up all of our calculations, bring December 4th deaths forward immediately before we are found out'.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Thats all very interesting, but a citizen in Sweden over the age of 65 is just as safe as a citizen over 65 in Ireland.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » In theory thats a great idea Its not whats happening though is it, the whole response to covid has been to compare how "well" Ireland has done compared to those other countries.
mcsean2163 wrote: » It's amazing how two people can look at the same thing and draw different conclusions. One other year in particular has two defined spikes when I look...
Charles Babbage wrote: » I don't think anyone thinks that Ireland has protected its vulnerable very well, the nursing homes were a disgrace. Ireland didn't so bad generally.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Yeah I stated before that until the excess mortality is available for the total of the year, its not an accurate comparison. The point I was making 30k death's in Italy or 5700 in Sweden sounds like Ireland has protected its vunerable very well.
JimmyVik wrote: » Sure. That's why so many of them died.
Charles Babbage wrote: » Fair play for having the numbers. The point about Italy is that the disease was only severe in areas around Lombardy. But in those areas where things were bad many people died untested, and this would be especially true of older people, in some towns excess mortality was 10 times official Covid deaths. To really prove this point you would need excess mortality figures for these age groups in both countries.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Using bit cynical's data for Ireland Population over 65 -637567 Death total over 65- 1644 gives a death rate of 257 per 100k over 65 I got the Itilian data on statista Population over 65 13.2 million death total over 65 - 30000 gives a death rate of 227 per 100k over 65 Its still not incredibly accurate as the data for Italy is recorded between 60-69 so Ive halved the data set for the calculation, also data is from mid July
JimmyVik wrote: » Ireland (and most other countries) made an effort to break the chain of transmission early. I think they were very successful so far in that effort. Sweden made no such effort. This exposed their vulnerable to the virus even more with the resulting deaths. Now not all could have been avoided, but breaking that chain early on would have certainly spared a lot of people. Though Swedes have in general realized that their losses were very high and had taken upon themselves to help break the chain of transmission. That now seems to be working. Their government did indeed perform a large expensive experiment that cost a lot of lives.
ittakestwo wrote: » Comparing Ireland and Sweden or any two countries that are not neighbours with cultural similarities is pointless in accessing their approach. The best gauge of the Swedish approach is to compare them with neighbours who had a stricter approach to see what difference Sweden's lenient approach made. If you compare Sweden with Norway who had a strict approach like Ireland, you will see Norway had a significantly lower rate than Sweden. The peak was also 2 months before Sweden's (April v June). It is obvious that if Ireland took a similar approach to sweden we also would have had a higher infection rate than we did and would have also probably not peaked till June instead of April. If you say well Sweden's death rate in the over 65's was similar Ireland. That just means the two countries were not at the same starting position in beginning of March when european countries first started lockdowns.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Should what be apparent? Im not really sure, is there any outliers? Sweden have 2 million citizens over 65 - 5700 deaths Norway has 923000 over 65 - 256 deaths Denmark has 1.1 million over 65. 616 deaths Finland has 1.2 million over 65. 329 deaths Ireland has 650k over 65. 1700 deaths I cant answer your question Charlie, the stats are baffling. Ireland hasnt done well but the stats from Norway, Denmark and Finland are excellent. Are they only recording deaths exclusively from Covid, and not all postive case that happened to die?
charlie14 wrote: » I have looked at the Euromomo deaths for Sweden, and for prior years there are no major spike differences between deaths in the first half of a year and the second. This year from bb1234567 calculations there are 2,000 excess deaths over and above Sweden`s reported Covid-19 deaths. My guess is that a fair proportion of those are Covid-19 deaths as I have not heard of anything else as regards Sweden that would account for that level of deaths.
bb1234567 wrote: » Though it is important to note that excess deaths in Italy are 45,000 for the period March-June, which is 10,000 more than the official number of COVID victims. At least a significant amount of these will be unreported COVID deaths in the chaos at the beginning.
Charles Babbage wrote: » Dodgy stat alert. Please provide your stats.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Interestingly a citizen over 65 has been safer in Italy than Ireland from Covid. The spin the media have put on the death stats was incredibly clever
