Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I know you guys disagree but please read a recent interview with Tegnell.https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/ I know the Swedes well and I trust them. I think he is being honest and his points are valid. I really fear we could be having the same conversation in a year.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » My solution would have been to let the virus spread during the summer. If the hospitals looked like being overwhelmed then lock down incrementally. And keeping the vulnerable isolated. So throttling the virus.
youandme13 wrote: » https://www.rte.ie/amp/1154688/ There, a link for Sweden!
charlie14 wrote: » And what would you do if it spread rapidly and the hospitals ended up like Italy, over-run in a very short period of time ?
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » The problem with this link is that it's a news article as opposed to a scientific paper or interview with a scientist. The journalist does not quote sources. Could be true but without a source you can't verify. There's not even the name of the journalist.
charlie14 wrote: » I`m afraid for me Tegnell lost all credibility when the first test results were so far off his modelling figures yet he still insisted his figures were correct. The second 50,000 test results showed he was not.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Demographics meant it would be unlikely to have a repeat of what happened in Northern Italy in Ireland. The region in northern Italy that had overcrowding issues had an elderly population, one of the oldest in Europe, of 10m in an area the size of Munster.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » The Swedish approach avoided this hapening. But in our case we could have gradually increased the lockdown, for example shutting pubs and large gatherings first. Could be only this combined with social distancing is all that was required for ireland to avoid the northern Italy situation.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Oh come on, a model is just that. All the models have so many assumptions to make then useless. Have you looked at how NPHET calculate the r value.
charlie14 wrote: » We asked people to social distance here before the lockdown and not have large gatherings in pubs, clubs and public spaces. All were jammed the weekend before lockdown.
charlie14 wrote: » Quarter of our population is in Dublin.
StefanFal wrote: » Never trust a Swede. I’m living in Stockholm over 10 years now and I can assure you they are a sneaky dishonest shower.
charlie14 wrote: » If Tegnell is so honest and trust worthy then why was he defending his model when actual tests results showed how wrong he was ?
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Yes but we don't have multiple generations living together.
charlie14 wrote: » Neither do Sweden and half their households are single occupancy. On that basis alone their number should have been lower.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I didnt see that. Btw you still havent given me the link to 4000 extra deaths
charlie14 wrote: » I gave you the numbers. If you do not believe them do your own calculation and let me know what figure for excess deaths over and above Covid-19 you get. Statista. Sweden death rate 2010 - 2020.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Their immigrant populations do. And there are significant immigrant populations in Stockholm and Gotenborg. But, their deaths are lower than Italy???
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Apologies again if I missed it. I'm on a phone screen. Can you paste the link and your calculation. I will read it and tell you my opinion.
charlie14 wrote: » I cannot link them from here. But a simple search will find them.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Honestly, we have opposing views and I'm engaging with you fairly. History could agree with your view point. If you make a claim you need to back it up with a reputable source. Otherwise there's no credibility to the statement and its just an opinion.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Not just demographics but social norms on Italy.
charlie14 wrote: » I already gave you the source. Statista. Sweden death rate 2010 - 2020.
