Sweden avoiding lockdown

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The lack of understanding of statistics never fails to amaze me.

Yes, say covid is twice as bad as the flu o and it sounds dreadful.
But buying two euro million lotto tickets doubles your chance of winning over one ticket.

Bit cynical

Boggles wrote: »

That isn't true.

Averages have been staying steady and marginally falling.

I'm not sure that's the case to be honest. In terms of daily cases, ours seem to be rising, albeit from a very low level. A similar pattern is seen in a number of other countries and daily rates for the EU as a whole are rising.

This is a 7-day rolling average chart of daily cases over the last 4 weeks. The 7-day average removes a lot of the sporadic highs and lows of the daily figures allowing a better sense of the trend.

Thierry12

froog wrote: »

Sweden is 8th in the world for deaths per capita. 5th excluding san marino and andorra. And they are 50th for tests per capita. Am i missing something here? Why is their approach considered a success by some?

They let it run through the population and 70 people below 50 died ( most had underlying conditions )

Of known cases, a 99.92% survival rate for under 50's

70 young people died in a country that has 20 car crashes a day involving hitting a Moose

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

biko

It's sad when people are so callous about their parents and grandparents lives.
I guess that's what it means to be young today.

JimmyVik

Thierry12 wrote: »

They let it run through the population and 70 people below 50 died ( most had underlying conditions )

Of known cases, a 99.92% survival rate for under 50's

70 young people died in a country that has 20 car crashes a day involving hitting a Moose

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Its not only young people who would like to live a few more years.

biko wrote: »

It's sad when people are so callous about their parents and grandparents lives.
I guess that's what it means to be young today.

Nothing like a bowl of emotional manipulation when the statistics dont support your argument.

Thierry12

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its not only young people who would like to live a few more years.

Yes and they should be supported more by governments around the world, financially especially, that's what Sweeden got wrong.

They didn't protect the vulnerable early on.

We can't have one solution for all humanity

You can see it now the way it's developing here

We are still getting alot of cases still but hospilisation and deaths are lowering, the young are getting infected and battling on, the old and weak are taking good precautions and staying away

If governments did more for the old and weak, financially support them, provide on the go services, accommodation to isolate from young, we would have many less deaths

We know enough about the virus now to know who is vulnerable to it

Protect them and live on

biko wrote: »

It's sad when people are so callous about their parents and grandparents lives.
I guess that's what it means to be young today.

I'm not young but I believe what is happening to the young is wrong.

timmy_mallet

greyday wrote: »

It actually is sustainable if the article you quoted is correct, if Swedes have immunity from previous corona virus infections, there is no reason not to believe Irish people will have similar levels of immunity.
There is also now more understanding of what the standard of care should be and we are also closer to a Vaccine if one is ever to be effective.
We saved lives while building up knowledge while Sweden sacrificed lives building their knowledge.
Personally I would like to see an independent group collecting the data on deaths around the world as politicians as we see with Trump are economical with facts when they make a hames of something.

You're right, the world owes Sweden a debt. They experimented on everyone's behalf. The question to ask is, was the loss of life worth it to society. What do you think?

froog

Thierry12 wrote: »

They let it run through the population and 70 people below 50 died ( most had underlying conditions )

Of known cases, a 99.92% survival rate for under 50's

70 young people died in a country that has 20 car crashes a day involving hitting a Moose

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Does your value for life work on a sliding age scale or something? At what age are people completely expendable?

froog

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Nothing like a bowl of emotional manipulation when the statistics dont support your argument.

No manipulation needed, the guy basically discounted over 50s in his assessment of how bad this thing is.

timmy_mallet wrote: »

You're right, the world owes Sweden a debt. They experimented on everyone's behalf. The question to ask is, was the loss of life worth it to society. What do you think?

Swedens loss of life is no worse than Irelands, people need to realise that.

Billgirlylegs

Many interesting comments on this -i hope it doesn't go off the rails.

The "Sweden" approach can really only be assessed in the long term, as can others.
There is no obvious right answer on how to deal with this thing.

Just grateful that someone is doing something different for comparison purposes if nothing else.
I see no evidence at this stage, that our lot _ Government, Dept Health , HSE and NPHET _are anything other than clueless chancers, getting lucky in some of their decisions.
Mostly they are playing it day by day and hoping for the best.
No logic in anything they are doing, and they are constantly making liars of themselves.

biko wrote: »

Guideline for doctors were implemented to make sure ICUs did not get overwhelmed. Instead doctors have prescribed morphine to help the old people die.

This happens in Ireland too. You going to criticise that too or just point fingers? I'm guessing on previous experience the latter.

Billgirlylegs wrote: »

Many interesting comments on this -i hope it doesn't go off the rails.

The "Sweden" approach can really only be assessed in the long term, as can others.
There is no obvious right answer on how to deal with this thing.

Just grateful that someone is doing something different for comparison purposes if nothing else.
I see no evidence at this stage, that our lot _ Government, Dept Health , HSE and NPHET _are anything other than clueless chancers, getting lucky in some of their decisions.
Mostly they are playing it day by day and hoping for the best.
No logic in anything they are doing, and they are constantly making liars of themselves.

From the figures already readily available Sweden have a similar death rate to Ireland.

The death rate is directly correlated to the number of citizen's over 65.

Boggles

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What's the average for the last 7 days and how does it compare to the previous 7 days?

14 day average is more an accurate reflection of how the disease progressing.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Actually I just checked there - we've had 201 cases for the 7 days up to yesterday. That's a daily average of 29 cases.

Sweden have had 650 cases in the last 3 days alone.

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Yes but our approach is not sustainable.

I don't care if pubs never open but once they do, our numbers will start off again.

And it seems inevitable that schools will be scarified to bring numbers down. Hopefully not.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

And it seems inevitable that schools will be scarified to bring numbers down. Hopefully not.

I'm afraid of that also. The only hope is that the economics don't allow another lock down.

Or that the Swedish numbers prove our approach is wrong.

Boggles wrote: »

14 day average is more an accurate reflection of how the disease progressing.

Sweden have had 650 cases in the last 3 days alone.

I'm fairly certain the 14 day average is also up. Yesterdays blip will skew the numbers. The 7 day average gives a good idea of the current situation whereas 14 day may be out of date.

Pro rata 650 ia roughly equal to 325 here. Eventually the new cases graph between both countries will intersect except ours will be going up and theirs going down.

Personally I think whether schools reopen in both countries will prove who got their longterm approach right.

Boggles

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm fairly certain the 14 day average is also up. Yesterdays blip will skew the numbers.

Unless he was wrong or telling fibs, the guy that is in charge of the modelling stated they were down yesterday. Blip aside.

Boggles wrote: »

Unless he was wrong or telling fibs, the guy that is in charge of the modelling stated they were down yesterday. Blip aside.

He came into the meeting with statistics that were blown out of the water by the 85 cases which weren't included in his model as he said himself.

I accept the trend here was fairly stable and lets hope the 85 cases are a once off. The trends in many other countries particurly eastern europe, africa, south america, australia and asia are going up.

Boggles

tobefrank321 wrote: »

He came into the meeting with statistics that were blown out of the water by the 85 cases which weren't included in his model as he said himself.

Indeed, but you don't shít the bed for one daily instance.

If you were applying the same level of panic to Sweden.

They reported 100 cases Sunday and Monday and 600+ Tuesday and Wednesday.

biko

80,422 official cases
5,743 officially dead
7.1% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Thierry12

biko wrote: »

80,422 official cases
5,743 officially dead
7.1% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

5000 or so of those dead are over the age of 70
0.8% of under 70 died

Sweden were right not to lockdown, but wrong not protect the old

Others can learn from that mistake

biko wrote: »

80,422 official cases
5,743 officially dead
7.1% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

And don't forget :-
"It's sad when people are so callous about their parents and grandparents lives.
I guess that's what it means to be young today."

Bit cynical

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm fairly certain the 14 day average is also up.

This is indeed the case. The last 14 days had 259 cases reported and the previous 14 days to that had 206, representing an increase of 26%. This doesn't include yesterday's blip of 80 cases.

is_that_so

Thierry12 wrote: »

5000 or so of those dead are over the age of 70
0.8% of under 70 died

Sweden were right not to lockdown, but wrong not protect the old

Others can learn from that mistake

They still have a fubared economy anyway. If countries were offered 1,000 variations on strategy, the Swedish one would be the last plan they'd choose. It's far too risky, kills a lot of people and you'd have to train your own people to behave and live like Swedes!

greyday

timmy_mallet wrote: »

You're right, the world owes Sweden a debt. They experimented on everyone's behalf. The question to ask is, was the loss of life worth it to society. What do you think?

The Swedish loss of life may very well be worth it to the world but I would not have experimented with Irish lives in that way.