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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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JamesMason

Wanderer78 wrote: »

We re clearly experiencing a chronic under supply, and have been since the last crash

Demand will surely drop if the approval figures collapse are anything to go by. Anyway, when the second wave of infections occurs, property prices will be the least of our worries.

Wanderer78

JamesMason wrote:

Demand will surely drop if the approval figures collapse are anything to go by. Anyway, when the second wave of infections occurs, property prices will be the least of our worries.

Price has little to do with overall demand, demand has always been there, as there's still thousands unhoused and since people haven't stopped aging, younger generations will always be looking for some sort of housing/accommodation security, we really need to grow up and be big boys and girls over how badly wrong neoclassical is

Cyrus

M256 wrote: »

With WFH 2 or 3 days a week as the new norm people don’t need to waste their time in the soulless Docklands, so there will be much less demand to buy or rent those tiny expensive apartments but instead people will buy bigger houses and apartments in other areas. Commuting to the office only 2 or 3 days a week is not the same as full week, people will be willing to commute longer but live in more affordable and bigger houses.

New norm after 3 months ok

And if it is guess what the price of the more affordable and bigger houses increases they aren’t going to stay at the price they are now if all of a sudden everyone wants to live by the sea in Wicklow or Wexford

Cyrus

Cantstandsya wrote: »

It's an interesting example of burying the lead. The headline is about prices rising (according to may figures) but goes on to mention that

"Further drops in transaction levels are expected as a survey of banks about lending in July shows the largest number of rejections of mortgage applications since this was first recorded in 2015."

And then later:

"Meanwhile, the Central Bank's 'Bank Lending Survey for July' shows a sharp decline in demand for mortgages, and a tightening up of lending criteria by banks.

The survey shows demand for loans for house purchase and consumer lending fell at the fastest rate in the history of the series and is the first marked decline in demand since the last quarter of 2011."

So demand for mortgages falling at the fastest rate in the history of the survey... Tell me more about lack of supply.

So what, prices did increase albeit slightly , people need to focus on the facts , reported sales prices and stop with the anecdotes and asking prices , it matters little .

And of course mortgage demand was down we are talking about a 3 month period where a large portion of the workforce was in a very unsettled position applying for a mortgage probably isn’t foremost

But that’s what it has been a few months not a couple of years

OwlsZat

Graham wrote: »

You don't think culling the market of hundreds or thousands of landlords might bring with it other issues?

What would they be? Speculators would lose money? People who buy other asset type don't get bailed out by taxpayers when the price goes down. They sell.

OwlsZat

brisan wrote: »

I never said SF will do any better,but if this Government dont do something drastic the under 40 vote will give SF a chance to show what they can do in the next election

Completely agree. The geriatranomics will get torn down and if SF are doing it, it's going to be far worse. Government would be wise to allow prices to fall.

Cantstandsya

Cyrus wrote: »

So what, prices did increase albeit slightly , people need to focus on the facts , reported sales prices and stop with the anecdotes and asking prices , it matters little .

And of course mortgage demand was down we are talking about a 3 month period where a large portion of the workforce was in a very unsettled position applying for a mortgage probably isn’t foremost

But that’s what it has been a few months not a couple of years

Nothing to see here folks, so what if mortgage applications are dropping at record rates and of the few who do still apply a record number of those are being rejected... Prices went up by 0.2% in May so everything else is just anecdote.

OwlsZat

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Nothing to see here folks, so what if mortgage applications are dropping at record rates and of the few who do still apply a record number of those are being rejected... Prices went up by 0.2% in May so everything else is just anecdote.

You should read up on leading and lagging indicators.

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

It make sense in a way, but if its a house in desirable location, let say around Dublin, that would be well below market price, right? who would be eligible to buy those houses? I imagine there would be a massive demands from FTB.

Plenty of land available inside the M50 ring
Even if they upped the price to 300k and kept some for social housing it would be a good thing
WE have to completely rethink our housing market.
Its been the same the last 100 years and does not work .
People buying council homes on the cheap is wrong
One person families living in 3 bed council homes is wrong while 4-5 person families are in 2 bed apts paid for by the state
In my area about 40% of the 3 bed houses are occupied by one or two person families over 65 yrs of age
Houses are too big for them but they want to stay in the area
In a Utopian world the Government would build estates of 1.2.3. 4 bed properties
You could then move in in your 20s and move up the ladder as your family expands and move down the ladder as you get older to smaller property but still stay in the same community while freeing up equity
My mother lives in a 4 bed 2 full bathroom house on her own
She will not move even at 82 because of the community and the parish church which she is involved in
We have to give people the reasons to downsize
Its done in Sweden and is very successful

JimmyVik

KingoftheSpoof wrote: »

Yep! Knew a "homeless" lad. Looking for a gaf so called the homeless bluff. On the list he goes.

He's definitely not sleeping rough anyway

Manager of the hotel near me where i go for a pint was telling me that he has several mothers and children in rooms who dont even stay there. They are just there to carry on their homeless charade to get a house quicker. One of their rooms one night he had to actually kick out a gang of people who were on a hen from the UK. No sign of the occupier. He thought either she gave friends the room for the week or had it on B&B. The hotel has been closed for Covid, so I dont know what the story is now. That was nearly a year ago he told me that.

Cantstandsya

OwlsZat wrote: »

You should read up on leading and lagging indicators.

What is more relevant to today/tomorrow?

House prices in May or mortgage applications/approvals in July?

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

It make sense in a way, but if its a house in desirable location, let say around Dublin, that would be well below market price, right? who would be eligible to buy those houses? I imagine there would be a massive demands from FTB.

You could put a clause in where the house cannot be sold for a certain number of years and if it is a large percentage of the profits goes to the state.
It will affect property prices by bringing them down but surely thats a good thing
If you only own one house and its your home and you are happy in it does it matter what its worth.
Lads just want to sit in the pub and tell their mates
My house is worth half a million.
So what ,if you sold it it would cost the same to buy another comparable one
its only an asset when you die

JimmyVik

M256 wrote: »

With WFH 2 or 3 days a week as the new norm people don’t need to waste their time in the soulless Docklands, so there will be much less demand to buy or rent those tiny expensive apartments but instead people will buy bigger houses and apartments in other areas. Commuting to the office only 2 or 3 days a week is not the same as full week, people will be willing to commute longer but live in more affordable and bigger houses.

All 200+ people in my company are working from home.
We were originally told to all be back in the office 3rd week in August. So most who could have, gave up their rentals or room shares and went home to either their own countries or counties.
Now we have been told everyone is to be back in the office on 1st September. I wonder if everyone will come back.
I think some will just quit and stay in their own countries. All the ones I know who are in the country in Ireland want back to Dublin asap.

I wouldnt feel the same myself, but most seem to.

JimmyVik

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Price has little to do with overall demand, demand has always been there, as there's still thousands unhoused and since people haven't stopped aging, younger generations will always be looking for some sort of housing/accommodation security, we really need to grow up and be big boys and girls over how badly wrong neoclassical is

Our new housing minister has said he is going to rent all the ex AirB&Bs. Also going to buy as many of them as he can.

Ush1

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Price has little to do with overall demand, demand has always been there, as there's still thousands unhoused and since people haven't stopped aging, younger generations will always be looking for some sort of housing/accommodation security, we really need to grow up and be big boys and girls over how badly wrong neoclassical is

You can demand all you want, if something is too expensive you can't afford it.

If you have no job, you aren't getting a mortgage.

hometruths

brisan wrote: »

You could put a clause in where the house cannot be sold for a certain number of years and if it is a large percentage of the profits goes to the state.
It will affect property prices by bringing them down but surely thats a good thing
If you only own one house and its your home and you are happy in it does it matter what its worth.
Lads just want to sit in the pub and tell their mates
My house is worth half a million.
So what ,if you sold it it would cost the same to buy another comparable one
its only an asset when you die

Spot on. Apart from the vanity of thinking you're rich, high house prices are bad for homeowners - there is no real advantage to high prices, for individuals or society as a whole.

Of course for residential property investors high house prices are a good thing, and that's completely understandable.

The problem in this country is we're trying to ride both horses - we're wailing about the injustices for the young and the poor who cannot afford houses whilst simultaneously cheering policies that ensure high prices are supported.

We can't have it both ways.

As long as there are enough people who think changes in unemployment rates or mortgage approval numbers will not effect prices because "Price has little to do with overall demand" this situation will continue, because the herd actually has very little understanding of the market dynamics in play.

Marius34

brisan wrote: »

You could put a clause in where the house cannot be sold for a certain number of years and if it is a large percentage of the profits goes to the state.
It will affect property prices by bringing them down but surely thats a good thing
If you only own one house and its your home and you are happy in it does it matter what its worth.
Lads just want to sit in the pub and tell their mates
My house is worth half a million.
So what ,if you sold it it would cost the same to buy another comparable one
its only an asset when you die

It sound familiar to Singapore model.
The only problem if the price sells below market price, you have big competition, and you need to decide, who is eligible for those subsidized housing.
In Singapore, implementing this model, it basically killed private housing, so vast majority of housing is Public, sold below market price.
It appears to work well, but I guess it's risk if government is corrupt, as when government manages public projects there is ground for corruption and inefficiency.

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

It sound familiar to Singapore model.
The only problem if the price sells below market price, you have big competition, and you need to decide, who is eligible for those subsidized housing.
In Singapore, implementing this model, it basically killed private housing, so vast majority of housing is Public, sold below market price.
It appears to work well, but I guess it's risk if government is corrupt, as when government manages public projects there is ground for corruption and inefficiency.

It worked here in the early 70s when those on the housing list were given the opportunity to buy private housing with corporation loans once they met the wage criteria.
It can be done it just needs a change of mindset.
As I said the only advantage to SF doing so well in the last election is that it will focus the minds of FF-FG who know even with a pandemic (which will hopefully be gone by the next election )the housing crisis and SF have not gone away

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Very few on the housing list are actually homeless
You do realize that don't you

And yet they still want a house?

Wanderer78

Ush1 wrote: »

You can demand all you want, if something is too expensive you can't afford it.

If you have no job, you aren't getting a mortgage.

having a job also isnt a guarantee of getting a mortgage, neoclassical economics is clearly failing, price alone is a dreadful method of gauging the critical needs of society

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

Did I I miss happy hour somewhere last night? Landlord class, 60% drop in prices, 25% interest rates? I should have gone out.

/ Posted at 5:46am.

You can keep your early morning workouts and kale smoothies, that sort of stuff doesn't contribute to over the top housing market predictions the way a feed of pints does!

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

And yet they still want a house?

security of accommodation is critical human need

Cantstandsya

fliball123 wrote: »

And yet they still want a house?

I want a private jet, what way does that affect private jet prices?

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

And yet they still want a house?

And a lot of them are quite happy renting a private house in a private estate with the Gov picking up the tab and will refuse council houses if they are offered them
So they do not really want a house

https://www.thejournal.ie/social-housing-refusals-ireland-4607803-May2019/

Assetbacked

Cyrus wrote: »

You think the article is false ? On what basis ?

Headline; "House prices rose slightly in May despite lockdown limiting sales".

Article; "Month on month there was a fall of 0.1pc in May."

It's purposely misleading as house prices did in fact fall in May, it is in comparison to May of last year that they are slightly higher.

Wanderer78

brisan wrote: »

And a lot of them are quite happy renting a private house in a private estate with the Gov picking up the tab and will refuse council houses if they are offered them
So they do not really want a house

https://www.thejournal.ie/social-housing-refusals-ireland-4607803-May2019/

their current living arrangements may suit them better than accepting a public house

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/rent-increases-and-evictions-ban-extension-draws-ire-from-property-owners-1.4306397

Eviction and rent freeze bans extended, to be yet determined as to when they will expire but the way we are reopening, it would seem that another 4 months is what is needed.

Interesting to note this quote from the spokesperson of the Irish Property Owners' Association;

"“It is unsurprising that 4,000 landlords left the sector in the last year, with 8,000 less tenancies. When will good sense prevail?”"

When you don't vote for FG!

brisan

Wanderer78 wrote: »

their current living arrangements may suit them better than accepting a public house

Well I would prefer a 3 bed semi in a private estate in Beaumont rather than a 3 bed terrace in Darndale
But that's just me

brisan

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/rent-increases-and-evictions-ban-extension-draws-ire-from-property-owners-1.4306397

Eviction and rent freeze bans extended, to be yet determined as to when they will expire but the way we are reopening, it would seem that another 4 months is what is needed.

Interesting to note this quote from the spokesperson of the Irish Property Owners' Association;

"“It is unsurprising that 4,000 landlords left the sector in the last year, with 8,000 less tenancies. When will good sense prevail?”"

When you don't vote for FG!

Exactly
As I have said on countless occasions ,landlords of today are paying for the sins of their predecessors (and some bad apples today )
I know one landlord with six rented properties in one complex and 2 of the tenants have not paid rent of 1750 since 1st March
If they continue to not pay due to covid payments ,what can the landlord do
He could be 20k plus out of pocket if they just walk after 6 months
Even if they do not walk ,how will they pay the arrears and how long will it take them
Can they afford a rent increase if the LL decides to impose one when this is over

Wanderer78

brisan wrote: »

Exactly
As I have said on countless occasions ,landlords of today are paying for the sins of their predecessors (and some bad apples today )
I know one landlord with six rented properties in one complex and 2 of the tenants have not paid rent of 1750 since 1st March
If they continue to not pay due to covid payments ,what can the landlord do
He could be 20k plus out of pocket if they just walk after 6 months
Even if they do not walk ,how will they pay the arrears and how long will it take them
Can they afford a rent increase if the LL decides to impose one when this is over

our current polices and approaches are in fact deeply exposing both landlords and tenets, if we continue on this path, everyone will eventually be a loser