Bass Reeves wrote: » MN's will insist on a residential requirement in Ireland If WFH creates costs or risks for them. Those that assume that WFH will cause a collapse in Dublin house prices forget that WFH will be a 3-10 year process. It will have a bigger effect on commercial property rather than residential.
sanfranbest wrote: » Yes the corollary will be?????????? If all the high earning Techie's move out of Dublin,,, who will support all the trendy cafes, restaurants and bars in the Camden quarter,,,,, Portobello is currently Techie central, walking distance to Facebook etc.
sanfranbest wrote: » This house was listed last year for 575k, it sold for 675K in Dec 2019, 100K over the asking price, thats how crazy prices are in some parts of Dublin,,,,,,,,,, I would guess it was a few Techie's bidding against each other,,, I know its nice, but a 89 sqm, two bedroom, one bathroom terraced house for 675K,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Thats back to Celtic Tiger madness. Maybe the Techie's who bought it can now work from home and would rather have a nice four bedroom house on the beach in Wexford for less than they paid for this tiny house,,,,,,https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/42-martin-street-portobello-dublin-8/4361567 Working from home will affect a lot of properties in Dublin,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
sanfranbest wrote: » WFH will be a 3-10 process,,,,,,,,I disagree,,, Covid 19 is here and until a vaccine is found, WFH will be implemented immediately, I agree that commercial property may take a bigger hit, but high end residential areas will be hit hard also. It took fours years from 2008 for residential property prices to hit bottom,, so its all a big guess as to how the next few years will pan out.
Bass Reeves wrote: » Yes WFH may be implemented immediately but it will be 3-10 years before it begins to effect property prices. It effect may be a stabilizing rather than a collapse in prices. A government decision to build 10k social and affordable houses in Dublin per year may have a bigger effect but that is 18-24 months before coming on line
schmittel wrote: » Surely if meaningful numbers of WFH are implemented immediately then prices will be effected immediately? I don't get the cause of the 3-10 year lag?
Deub wrote: » Companies have lease contracts for the building they currently use. They have no incentive to add extra cost for the WFH setup and pay the rent. They are likely to do it by stages. If they have 5 years left on the lease they will start the transition before but they will not go full WFH now. The way I see it, it should be a big win for MNCs. They will have lower rent costs but they will also pay less the employees. They will not pay the Dublin salary if you live in Waterford. Facebook already said it. It will mean less investments in Ireland from MNCs. In addition, many have their HQ here for tax reasons and countries are going after this loophole. If MNCs are not saving money being in Ireland, they will move.
Hubertj wrote: » Sorry I’m confused by this. You said it sold in dec 19? But the linK you provided says sales agreed. Are you saying it has been sold on again since dec 19? Big money for a small house...
Bass Reeves wrote: » Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick. Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well
seenn00J wrote: » I'd just like to add my 2c here, the reason people live in Dublin isn't just because they work there. Easier access to employment is a feature of most capital cities of the world alright, but I could list countless other reasons why it's a more favorable place to live than rural life in Longford or Westmeath. So WFH policies are not imo going to cause an exodus from Dublin and knock-on crash in property prices. Especially people who already have roots in the capital (family, friends, children's schools, etc).
cnocbui wrote: Profit taking hardly works if you are living in the asset. If it's an investment property, you might want to line up an alternative investment with equal or greater returns. Taking into account the CGT, I think you might be struggling.
awec wrote: If someone can sell their house for 100k profit, why on earth would they sell it for less profit than that?.
Bass Reeves wrote: Why would you profit take and pay 33% tax on any profit accrued. As there are costs involved, between solicitors and estate agents along with tax you could be looking at a 40% cost on a 100k profit.
Villa05 wrote: » CGT does not apply to a private residence, A falling market would benefit a person upsizing That is not what I said, with the outlook for property negative in the short term and medium to long term increasingly uncertain. Would some investors consider it a good time to sell Good points but remember one of the measures introduced to kick-start the market after the last collapse was CGT exemption if you held the property for 7 years or more. With close to 50% of all sales since 2009 not requiring a mortgage there must be alot of investors sitting on significant profits. People forget that 1 of the lessons from the last crash was that today your worth millions tomorrow you could be worth - millions
JimmyVik wrote: » I know a fair few who want to sell now. But they cant.
Person A: People will no longer be willing to pay such a premium to live in the city if they don't have to go into the city every day for work. Person B: But many people love living in the city for city life.
schmittel wrote: » Cannot sell because of tenants/personal circumstances/market conditions? What's the problem?
errlloyd wrote: » I find this thread has a lot of this. Both of these sentences are possibly true, but if person A is correct about that prediction it will have an impact on prices, even if person B is also correct. To put it another way, if one person can demonstrate that demand is going to drop *in any sector* it is sort of useless pointing out that demand will remain static in another sector, you have to demonstrate where there will be an increase to compensate. These demand changes might be small, but their impact is leveraged. Why? Because supply and demand in property is non linear (or highly inelastic if you like). If demand is 101% of supply it seems like there is nothing on the market, everything is competed for. If demand drops 2% and is less than supply, it will suddenly feel like a buyers market.
JimmyVik wrote: » Id move down the country if i could work from home 5 days a week. I would only get 3 days per week max so not attractive to me. The other half will not change the kids schools though. So moving down the country is out for now. Then there is the whole psychology of moving to another town. I would be ok with it, but other half wouldnt. Therefore thats out for that reason too. Lots of foreigners who come to work in my company would just go home if the job wasnt in dublin. They will only live in Dublin.
Many Welsh towns are experiencing a boost in interest and some agents are on course to break sales records for June. So far, that interest seems to be driven by people reassessing their lives during the coronavirus pandemic and the realisation that working from home is now a possibility. Early signs suggest that there is a mini exodus from the bigger cities and parts of Wales are already benefiting, including places like Narberth, Crickhowell, Brecon and Aberdyfi.
City buyers seeking to secure a safe haven in the event of further COVID-19 lockdowns are driving a ‘super boom’ in rural real estate. Inquiries on rural holdings in the southern Gold Coast hinterland and Tweed Shire have risen sharply as buyers act on plans for a pandemic-proof lifestyle. “There has been a super boom in rural property inquiries,” said Christie’s Prestige Director Alex Caraco. “We’ve had a 300 to 400 per cent rise during COVID-19 on vacant rural land in the Tallebudgera, Currumbin, Numinbah and Tweed valleys.”
Queenio wrote: » I suspect it's lack of supply and people not putting houses on the market atm for fear of getting a poor price. Im looking in a restricted south dublin area and not one house has been added in one of the more popular areas in the last two weeks apart from one house in very very poor condition for an executor sale. And I honestly think that one is completely over priced but it has had a very busy viewing within 48 hours
cnocbui wrote: » There is already anecdotal evidence from REAs in both the UK, US and Australia that there is a significant increase in interest in properties in rural towns and the like. I am astonished it would happen this quickly.https://twnews.co.uk/gb-news/more-people-expected-to-move-to-wales-after-coronavirus-as-they-can-work-from-homehttps://www.realestate.com.au/news/covid19-lockdowns-drive-rural-real-estate-boom/
JimmyVik wrote: Cannot get vacant possession to sell.
JimmyVik wrote: I just read that the government are planning to buy up the excess airbnbs now. Also if they cant buy them they are going to try to get them on 25 year leases. So they kill the value and earning power of these properties with rules and regulations and then swoop in to buy them cheaper themselves. If thats not market manipulation. I still dont think they will get them as cheap as they think they will.
Villa05 wrote: » I think you overestimate the Government. Seeing how they spend taxpayers money, it would not surprise me if they increased their value and earning power I read that they solved the homeless issue by procuring holiday let's at full season price pre covid lock down Complete and utter stupidity to be buying up airbnb"s. All of them were built as resedintial units. Enforce the law and keep them as resedintial units 0 cost to taxpayer Airbnb is for the letting of a room in your own house which you live in not a completely empty unit
JimmyVik wrote: » It looks to me like the problem is going to be that the government buy up or lease all property for social housing in the next few years, leaving very little for normal buyers, but costing the tax payer a fortune. So not only basically the normal buyer is now bidding against the council, who are increasing prices and to add insult to injury using the normal buyers own money (taxes) to do this. Pretty soon you wont be able to own a house unless you are given it by the council. Because there will be nothing left for you.
