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Second wave

BeeSarah

How much do we have time before second wave of corona?

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4068ac1elhodqr

Likely there will just be zonal clusters, not actually island wide waves, until November onwards when you have weather in the mix (along with Norovirus/InfA&B/Swine etc), and Uni students starting houseshares or double residences at holidays.

Some strange news over the last couple of days are claims that
i) It's an airborne virus, that can remain there for hours
ii) 3/4 of folks may show no symptoms.

More recently China have been throwing their weight about (Aus,Can,HK & their Islands) while pretty much finished with the WuFlu.
All the while the America, Rus, India/Pak and Europe have all been dealt a blow.

GooglePlus

froog wrote: »

i don't know how people figure there won't be a second wave to be honest. no vaccine, no herd immunity and now no lockdown. it's rampant globally and we're approaching autumn. people need to start mentally preparing themselves for it and not becoming complacent.

You're dead right.

I'm all for people having an optimistic outlook until it clouds their judgement.

I don't think we'll see a full lockdown again but a second wave is inevitable and I think deaths will hit a higher rate this time around as Economy>People.

xl500

R rate >1 this evening probably reflects the easing of lockdown

take everything

R0 figure at or above one.

niallo27

R number is pointless when the cases are so low, it will have huge fluctuations based on tiny spikes.

Pete_Cavan

GooglePlus wrote: »

You're dead right.

I'm all for people having an optimistic outlook until it clouds their judgement.

I don't think we'll see a full lockdown again but a second wave is inevitable and I think deaths will hit a higher rate this time around as Economy>People.

Can you give the rationale for that? The virus has already gone through many nursing homes and many of the most vulnerable have already died, greater protection for nursing homes should significantly reduce deaths there, and by extension the overall death rate. There are fewer vulnerable people to die and those known to be vulnerable will have to be protected first and foremost.

Social distancing, better cough/sneeze etiquette, more regular hand cleaning, etc. will reduce the rate of spread compared to when it first arrived. There is also likely over 100,000 people here who have had it so likely less potential spreaders.

More is known about the virus now, how to best treat it and healthcare workers have experience of it so treatment should be more effective now than before. There are also plans in place to deal with surges, etc. so it won't be simply reacting to an evolving situation as it was previously. Quite a few healthcare workers have already had the virus and have antibodies, this coupled with more and better PPE should see less absenteeism which would help the health system cope better.

Also, our current death rate from Covid-19 is overstated so even adjusting the method of counting should give a lower death rate (more reflective of the actual situation).

You talk about having an optimistic outlook until it clouds their judgement, your judgement seems to be clouded by a pessimistic outlook.

Pete_Cavan

xl500 wrote: »

R rate >1 this evening probably reflects the easing of lockdown

No it just reflects an extremely low caseload.

ChelseaRentBoy

niallo27 wrote: »

R number is pointless when the cases are so low, it will have huge fluctuations based on tiny spikes.

Jesus Christ... Are you serious??

It is absolutely not pointless

Deeper Blue

When the case numbers are as low as ours the R number is basically meaningless, this has been established many times before.

Harpon

GooglePlus wrote: »

You're dead right.

I'm all for people having an optimistic outlook until it clouds their judgement.

I don't think we'll see a full lockdown again but a second wave is inevitable and I think deaths will hit a higher rate this time around as Economy>People.

We’ll see localised lockdowns where cases are highest, with all the covid cases coming into the country through the airport, Dublin is almost certain to go into lockdown again in the next few months. People should plan to stay with their parents in the country in the next month or so if they don’t want to be locked down again in Dublin.

niallo27

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

Jesus Christ... Are you serious??

It is absolutely not pointless

When the numbers are this low yes it is pointless, do you actually know how it works.

FintanMcluskey

Does anyone know when the 1st wave is due to hit Ireland?

amadangomor

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Does anyone know when the 1st wave is due to hit Ireland?

GooglePlus

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Can you give the rationale for that? The virus has already gone through many nursing homes and many of the most vulnerable have already died, greater protection for nursing homes should significantly reduce deaths there, and by extension the overall death rate. There are fewer vulnerable people to die and those known to be vulnerable will have to be protected first and foremost.

Social distancing, better cough/sneeze etiquette, more regular hand cleaning, etc. will reduce the rate of spread compared to when it first arrived. There is also likely over 100,000 people here who have had it so likely less potential spreaders.

More is known about the virus now, how to best treat it and healthcare workers have experience of it so treatment should be more effective now than before. There are also plans in place to deal with surges, etc. so it won't be simply reacting to an evolving situation as it was previously. Quite a few healthcare workers have already had the virus and have antibodies, this coupled with more and better PPE should see less absenteeism which would help the health system cope better.

Also, our current death rate from Covid-19 is overstated so even adjusting the method of counting should give a lower death rate (more reflective of the actual situation).

You talk about having an optimistic outlook until it clouds their judgement, your judgement seems to be clouded by a pessimistic outlook.

We won't be going into a lockdown this time around, we'll be taking it head on.

More people infected will result in more deaths.

Poorside

GooglePlus wrote: »

We won't be going into a lockdown this time around, we'll be taking it head on.

More people infected will result in more deaths.

It will be localised lock downs, the country won't be able to afford a full shut down again

Happy4all

Poorside wrote: »

It will be localised lock downs, the country won't be able to afford a full shut down again

It's predominantly in Dublin, so a Dublin lockdown would be an economic disaster

faceman

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Travel cases increasing

This needs to be broken out otherwise it’s misleading.

How many of those travel cases are related to:

USA
U.K.
Sweden
Rest of EU
ME
Asia
Africa

I’d say the stats will look more interesting then

faceman

Harpon wrote: »

We’ll see localised lockdowns where cases are highest, with all the covid cases coming into the country through the airport, Dublin is almost certain to go into lockdown again in the next few months. People should plan to stay with their parents in the country in the next month or so if they don’t want to be locked down again in Dublin.

No it won’t

UrbanSprawl

Happy4all wrote: »

It's predominantly in Dublin, so a Dublin lockdown would be an economic disaster

It's predominantly in Dublin is it lets flee Dublin cos its infected

Pete_Cavan

GooglePlus wrote: »

We won't be going into a lockdown this time around, we'll be taking it head on.

More people infected will result in more deaths.

More people infected resulting in more deaths doesn't necessarily mean a higher death rate. We could see 10 times the number of infections but only double the number of deaths, meaning a lowered death rate.

Lollipop95

Happy4all wrote: »

It's predominantly in Dublin, so a Dublin lockdown would be an economic disaster

It would also affect the number of people who commute to Dublin for work

Munsterman12

A second wave just means the government is mishandling the virus. There shouldn't have been a first wave.

Widdensushi

Munsterman12 wrote: »

A second wave just means the government is mishandling the virus. There shouldn't have been a first wave.

Yeah,we should be the only country in the world to avoid it

TheDriver

faceman wrote: »

This needs to be broken out otherwise it’s misleading.

How many of those travel cases are related to:

USA
U.K.
Sweden
Rest of EU
ME
Asia
Africa

I’d say the stats will look more interesting then

Here here plus the different between travel and travel related needs to be clarified.

[Deleted User]

Munsterman12 wrote: »

A second wave just means the government is mishandling the virus. There shouldn't have been a first wave.

A second wave will mean that some people didn’t practice personal responsibility. A second wave will mean that those of us who stayed home, did so for nothing.
A second wave will be a kick in the teeth for those of us who followed guidelines.

Nothing whatsoever to do with the government. They did everything possible. There’s no governing stupidity.

bb1234567

Deleted User wrote: »

A second wave will mean that some people didn’t practice personal responsibility. A second wave will mean that those of us who stayed home, did so for nothing.
A second wave will be a kick in the teeth for those of us who followed guidelines.

Nothing whatsoever to do with the government. They did everything possible. There’s no governing stupidity.

The government could only be accused of doing too much the last few months, if theres a second wave it's on the people.

1st dalkey dalkey

Different cohorts of the population have different attitudes to this virus, and for very good reason.

The risks for younger people, while still real, appear to be far smaller then for those of more advanced years.

I am in the latter category and have real fears in respect of contracting this virus, again, for very good reason.

Some here suggest that we, the older cohort, should just lock down while the rest of society gets back to normal.

But I don't know what kind of 'normal' there will be in such a scenario.

"The island of Ireland already has nearly one million people aged 60 years or older."

We are not such a big place that a million people wont impact 'normal'.

There will be no 'normal' until vaccine arrives and any easing of rules will have to be instantly reversible should numbers dictate.

My worry is that we do not have the capacity to enforce restrictions, nor the responsibility, in some people, to voluntarily comply.

My life has been very different since ths all started. I wish we could get back to normal. But at least I am alive.

1743 are not.

[Deleted User]

Isn’t it lovely that people can enter the country and spread whatever they might be carrying willynilly? https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/tour-operator-cancels-guided-cycle-after-learning-tourists-from-us-had-not-self-isolated-after-arriving-1010700.html

Stark

It's funny, Fine Gael have been nicknamed "the fascist party" given their Blueshirt history but if anything, the caretaker government was nowhere near fascist enough. It's been mostly "you'll obey the rules and not willfully infect other members of society, won't you? Pretty please? If you don't want to, that's fine too, we won't be mad at you".

In some countries, "14 day quarantine" means you are locked in a hotel room for those 14 days.

saabsaab

Deleted User wrote: »

Isn’t it lovely that people can enter the country and spread whatever they might be carrying willynilly? https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/tour-operator-cancels-guided-cycle-after-learning-tourists-from-us-had-not-self-isolated-after-arriving-1010700.html

True. 15 out of a recent 23 cases were travel related. All for little if we continue to import cases from hotspots like texas.