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Second wave

BeeSarah

How much do we have time before second wave of corona?

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Limpy

Herb Powell wrote: »

Nobody knows for sure when there will be a second wave.

For months now people have been hysterical at the sight of any groups of people, on beaches, in queues wherever, always with the "second wave imminent" comments.

Yet that hasn't happened.

I am not dismissing the seriousness of the situation, but would people not give it up and just fuccking admit they really don't know as much as they let on.

Here's a better idea, let people who are vunerable stay home, while the rest of society tried to get life back to normal.

Stark

CMCXCV wrote: »

18 cases on a Sunday, when it's usually the lowest of the days. Pubs are packed and Dublin looks like Coronavirus never existed. Wont be long now before it starts doubling in cases now.

Still dealing with small numbers where volatility is naturally going to be high. At least wait for a couple of more days of data before identifying a trend. We've had days over the past few weeks with > 20 cases then the next day it was as low as 4.

Onesea

There will be no second wave.This isn't a cold or a flu virus.
Didn't the who reaffirm this virus isn't nearly as contagious as first understood.

B.A._Baracus

Limpy wrote: »

Most of the case's if not all are clusters from hospitals and care homes. You have the odd Iraqi flouting the rules and causing a cluster in his family too.

I'll gaurentee you if you go onto town with no mask and dont social distance you won't get covid19.

No offense, but i'd rather mask-up and hand-sanitizer myself just to be sure until this is loooong gone

Merry Prankster

Onesea wrote: »

There will be no second wave.This isn't a cold or a flu virus.
Didn't the who reaffirm this virus isn't nearly as contagious as first understood.

Actually, the new strain doing the rounds is far more contagious: Link

Macy0161

My uninformed (as anybody on here's) opinion is that it'll be after all those that have ignored the advice and headed off on holiday get back that we'll start seeing a second spike or wave. People have only just gone for their holidays, so it'll be a couple of weeks, and the publicans will probably get off the hook for their flouting of the restrictions at the moment. But experience in other countries that it's pubs and clubs that have been the non-work super spreader environments.

Macy0161

Merry Prankster wrote: »

Actually, the new strain doing the rounds is far more contagious: Link

WHO are also getting criticised for down playing airborne transmission.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/05/who-underplaying-risk-of-airborne-spread-of-covid-19-say-scientists

spockety

Macy0161 wrote: »

My uninformed (as anybody on here's) opinion is that it'll be after all those that have ignored the advice and headed off on holiday get back that we'll start seeing a second spike or wave. People have only just gone for their holidays, so it'll be a couple of weeks, and the publicans will probably get off the hook for their flouting of the restrictions at the moment. But experience in other countries that it's pubs and clubs that have been the non-work super spreader environments.

Here's my prediction. The cause of a huge upturn in cases will be pubs and nightclubs and 500+ people gatherings (allowed by government), but the government will be able to demonise anyone who decided to go on holiday instead.

Harry Palmr

The "second wave" will be part of a sine wave profile of Covid 19 until a vaccine is widely distributed.

Hmmzis

Onesea wrote: »

There will be no second wave.This isn't a cold or a flu virus.
Didn't the who reaffirm this virus isn't nearly as contagious as first understood.

Nothing to do with type of virus or disease it causes, the possibility of a 2nd wave is only a function of the available hosts and the effective reproductive value of the virus, and how heterogeneous or homogeneous society is.

Let's say we only got 1 out of 10 in our official case numbers, that means we would have about 250k recovered individuals who would have some resistance to a second infection. In a population of 5 million that is 5%, leaving 95% still available for the virus to infect.

The current countermeasures are aimed at reducing the effective reproductive number (Rt). If it can be kept at 1 or below, there is no way to get a 2nd wave, but if it stays above 1 for an extended period of time it's by definition a 2nd wave.

By removing all countermeasures the initial spread would be a bit slower than in March due to less imported cases but overall it would have a very similar pattern to it.

Macy0161

spockety wrote: »

Here's my prediction. The cause of a huge upturn in cases will be pubs and nightclubs and 500+ people gatherings (allowed by government), but the government will be able to demonise anyone who decided to go on holiday instead.

It's not really in the community at the moment though - not just pubs where physical distancing is no longer being observed by at least a significant minority. Mask use is minimal. So it will most likely be those that chose to travel, and in particular chose to not self isolate on their return, that will be the root cause.

[Deleted User]

Limpy wrote: »

Here's a better idea, let people who are vunerable stay home, while the rest of society tried to get life back to normal follows the guidelines and don't behave like a pack of fncktards.

Tenzor07

Here's my 2 cents, the "second wave" idea comes from the seasonal flu, and as the experts don't know if Covid is seasonal then the idea of a 2nd wave is just a theory, and I would think that by the time "flu season" comes about it will cause a lot of "2nd wavers" to jump up and down claiming "It's here, it's here!" As unless there's free rapid testing a lot of people may think they have Covid not flu.

The basic facts are that the Genie is out of the bottle with Covid, if the HSE offered free testing to anyone who wanted it then we'd see a massive spike from all the people wandering around without symptoms.

And if it turns out that 10's of thousands of people are walking around with Covid and don't know it, then this idea of a 2nd wave is just to put the same fear into people that we had after the reports from Northern Italy in March.

spockety

Macy0161 wrote: »

It's not really in the community at the moment though - not just pubs where physical distancing is no longer being observed by at least a significant minority. Mask use is minimal. So it will most likely be those that chose to travel, and in particular chose to not self isolate on their return, that will be the root cause.

Well, arguably the root cause dates back months, the virus is already here.

The government have chosen to allow an extremely high risk activity (both inside the pubs themselves, and the knock on behaviours we are already seeing outside), but are screeching about travel instead, an activity which has lots of restrictions like mask wearing, hygiene controls, and testing on arrival in many countries.

For what it's worth, by the way, I wouldn't be getting on a plane for a while myself. In the same way that I won't be setting foot inside a pub either.

But I do find the whole narrative around travel bonkers when looked at in the context of the wider easing of restrictions and some of the specific behaviours it is obviously encouraging.

SeaBreezes

2nd wave? Looking at the me-fein behaviour of people it will be a tsunami...

No frickin masks, no distancing, no understanding how serious this is.

Israel is starting its second national shutdown for fecks sake. Arizona ICUs are full no room for young people.

While i believe the experts are watching october with a nervous eye, i also wonder what happens if flu and covid combine?

Danno

spockety wrote: »

Well, arguably the root cause dates back months, the virus is already here.

The government have chosen to allow an extremely high risk activity (both inside the pubs themselves, and the knock on behaviours we are already seeing outside), but are screeching about travel instead, an activity which has lots of restrictions like mask wearing, hygiene controls, and testing on arrival in many countries.

For what it's worth, by the way, I wouldn't be getting on a plane for a while myself. In the same way that I won't be setting foot inside a pub either.

But I do find the whole narrative around travel bonkers when looked at in the context of the wider easing of restrictions and some of the specific behaviours it is obviously encouraging.

If there are 50 people in a pub and none of them have the virus, there is nothing to be spread. Either the virus is in the community or it isn't. If it isn't in the community - open her back up and let life return to normal, but padlock the airport and bury the key until the rest of the world is over the virus. This is the price you pay for eliminating the virus from your island community.

average_runner

Danno wrote: »

If there are 50 people in a pub and none of them have the virus, there is nothing to be spread. Either the virus is in the community or it isn't. If it isn't in the community - open her back up and let life return to normal, but padlock the airport and bury the key until the rest of the world is over the virus. This is the price you pay for eliminating the virus from your island community.

And what about the exports and Imports that drive this country?

Danno

average_runner wrote: »

And what about the exports and Imports that drive this country?

Obviously we can engage in trade where strict social distancing is maintained.

We don't need hoards of tourists coming and going.

A second wave will cost €30bln at least, we can use a fraction of this cost to subsidise airline workers and give some supports to local tourism.

Tenzor07

Danno wrote: »

A second wave will cost €30bln at least, we can use a fraction of this cost to subsidise airline workers and give some supports to local tourism.

Another round of multi-billion Euro of borrowing from the EU money tree...? You do realise this has to be paid back at some stage? It will make the austerity after 2008 and the Troika came to Ireland look like a Teddy bears picnic.

Further austere Lockdowns as you're suggesting as opposed to Smart control/management will collapse the economy completely and leave the state dependent on borrowing.. The international markets won't be keen to throw money at a country with almost zero economic activity.

And this is before you even talk about Brexit.

So in short, ludicrous!

spockety

Danno wrote: »

If there are 50 people in a pub and none of them have the virus, there is nothing to be spread. Either the virus is in the community or it isn't. If it isn't in the community - open her back up and let life return to normal, but padlock the airport and bury the key until the rest of the world is over the virus. This is the price you pay for eliminating the virus from your island community.

But the airport isn't padlocked. There is nothing stopping people arriving here from the US, Brazil, and Sweden. I think it's a bit simplistic to say it's either in the community or it isn't. It's on the island, and people 'in the community' are coming into contact with people who have it, either in hospital or other care home situations.

We've done a pretty good job of crushing the curve, but the last few months of doing it have not been during scenes like we saw from Dublin city centre over the weekend.

Danno

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Another round of multi-billion Euro of borrowing from the EU money tree...? You do realise this has to be paid back at some stage? It will make the austerity after 2008 and the Troika came to Ireland look like a Teddy bears picnic.

Further austere Lockdowns as you're suggesting as opposed to Smart control/management will collapse the economy completely and leave the state dependent on borrowing.. The international markets won't be keen to throw money at a country with almost zero economic activity.

And this is before you even talk about Brexit.

So in short, ludicrous!

I don't agree with lockdown because I know it will cost another €30bln which as you rightly point out will result in unaffordable borrowings. What I am suggesting is opening up the country fully but banning all unnecessary travel in and out of here.

Luke O'Neill was on the radio this morning warning that importing cases are now the most likely way of seeing a second wave, something I totally agree with him on the matter.

Lock the airports and ferry ports to all but cargo. Fire money at the jobs affected, this will be much cheaper than covering the costs of a second lockdown which will happen if we don't aggressively stamp out international leisure travel.

Some people need to be told/ordered what to do just like we all were since mid-March. Fcuk the moaners.

Idbatterim

if tourists are bringing it in here and there is another need for lockdown, the money they are bringing in, is a total pittance and irrelevance v the multiple costs of partial lockdown again. There will be big increase in domestic tourism here, they should potentially start banning visitors from high risk countries, including the states in my opinion...

Tenzor07

Danno wrote: »

I don't agree with lockdown because I know it will cost another €30bln which as you rightly point out will result in unaffordable borrowings. What I am suggesting is opening up the country fully but banning all unnecessary travel in and out of here.
Luke O'Neill was on the radio this morning warning that importing cases are now the most likely way of seeing a second wave, something I totally agree with him on the matter.
Lock the airports and ferry ports to all but cargo. Fire money at the jobs affected, this will be much cheaper than covering the costs of a second lockdown which will happen if we don't aggressively stamp out international leisure travel..

A shutdown of the airport/ferry ports is still a lockdown, and I agree with you.. If this was back in March, now the Genie is out of the bottle and we need to work with other EU countries who are at a similar stage of the health crisis as Ireland is.

And while I listen to the opinions of talking heads like O'Neill, I also listen to more than just they or the HSE.

jim salter

I thought the next wave will be COVID-20, no?

According to Simon Harris it should be

[Deleted User]

Onesea wrote: »

There will be no second wave.This isn't a cold or a flu virus.
Didn't the who reaffirm this virus isn't nearly as contagious as first understood.

What makes you so sure? I don't believe there will be here,but you seen so certain with nothing to back it up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

[Deleted User]

Merry Prankster wrote: »

Actually, the new strain doing the rounds is far more contagious: Link

Its not a new strain, its been here for 4 months

is_that_so

Danno wrote: »

I don't agree with lockdown because I know it will cost another €30bln which as you rightly point out will result in unaffordable borrowings. What I am suggesting is opening up the country fully but banning all unnecessary travel in and out of here.

Luke O'Neill was on the radio this morning warning that importing cases are now the most likely way of seeing a second wave, something I totally agree with him on the matter.

Lock the airports and ferry ports to all but cargo. Fire money at the jobs affected, this will be much cheaper than covering the costs of a second lockdown which will happen if we don't aggressively stamp out international leisure travel.

Some people need to be told/ordered what to do just like we all were since mid-March. Fcuk the moaners.

So assuming we go with this plan, for how long? If after this lockdown more cases emerge would you be keen on another and another lockdown? Test, isolate, contact trace is the way to manage it otherwise with your plan it's perpetual lockdown till at least 2021. As for travel imports yes it is a known risk but no country has returned to the numbers we saw in March, just some spikes in numbers.

Sconsey

Danno wrote: »

I don't agree with lockdown because I know it will cost another €30bln which as you rightly point out will result in unaffordable borrowings. What I am suggesting is opening up the country fully but banning all unnecessary travel in and out of here.

Luke O'Neill was on the radio this morning warning that importing cases are now the most likely way of seeing a second wave, something I totally agree with him on the matter.

Lock the airports and ferry ports to all but cargo. Fire money at the jobs affected, this will be much cheaper than covering the costs of a second lockdown which will happen if we don't aggressively stamp out international leisure travel.

Some people need to be told/ordered what to do just like we all were since mid-March. Fcuk the moaners.

To be honest I like this idea and I agree that overall it would probably cost the country a lot less money than a second nationwide lock down. But thinking about it, when could we re-open ports? what would be the criteria to say it is now safe to open them again? I'm not against the idea at all but I don't know how we could get out of it once we start it. The virus will be around in lots of countries long after we would have eradicated it here, do we keep our ports closed to travellers for years? I dont think that could work either (and the NI border is another headache).
Probably better to try to work out some kind of mandatory isolation for people entering the country. Anyway, this is Ireland, nothing will be done and we will no-doubt be back to square one in no time.

[Deleted User]

SeaBreezes wrote: »

2nd wave? Looking at the me-fein behaviour of people it will be a tsunami...

No frickin masks, no distancing, no understanding how serious this is.

Israel is starting its second national shutdown for fecks sake. Arizona ICUs are full no room for young people.

While i believe the experts are watching october with a nervous eye, i also wonder what happens if flu and covid combine?

Any adherence or any change of behaviour from anyone will slow down any resurgence. How much depends on how many comply, but to suggest that and resurgence will be worse that the initial wave because some are behaving irresponsibly is ridiculous.

Also the measure that prevent spread of covid, also impact the flu, so it should be a mild season this year. Who is the last person you know who was off work with the flu, a cold or a stomach virus. I have not heard of anyone in ages and that's down to how we have been dealing with covid.

celt262

jim salter wrote: »

I thought the next wave will be COVID-20, no?

According to Simon Harris it should be

Are you two months behind all the time?