Arghus wrote: » It was stated again and again in the media, by the HSE, the DoH, the CMO, every doctor or specialist I heard mentioned it. Frequently repeated in the press briefings. Even the link you provided proves what I'm saying - it has the CMO saying it again. The message was loud and clear. If you are trying to argue different you are mistaken.
cnocbui wrote: » And just as easy to speculate lockdown caused a number of deaths, given some specialists pleading with the public to not ignore symptoms of stroke and heart attack, which likely was prompted by fewer such admissions presenting than normal.
SeaBreezes wrote: » You know Covid19 causes strokes/heart attacks with blood clotting, right?
VillageIdiot71 wrote: » I expect you know that the important part of that, for me and for many, is "that value was never going to be reached". We have poll-axed our societies. Truly, we've destroyed the World while pretending to save it.
mcsean2163 wrote: » That's an exaggeration. Public sector workers, multinational workers, etc. have been fine by and large. ��
charlie14 wrote: » I really do not know what the significance the "Up to 85,000" is to you.
charlie14 wrote: » If it had been 80% lower at 17,000, do you believe we should not have had lockdown ?
Arghus wrote: » But they were told to not ignore symptoms of stroke and heart attack and to contact GPs or seek treatment, all the time, everyday. It was made abundantly clear. Nobody said these people should avoid hospitals if they needed treatment. You can't blame them if people chose not to heed their advice.
VillageIdiot71 wrote: » I think its because it was a fake figure, used to create public fear and acceptance.You tell me. If it was "up to 2 people" do you believe we should not have had lockdown? If someone said we can expect to have up to 150 road deaths every year for as long as we have road transport, would you ban private cars?This is a very simplistic statement. The fact of the matter is that the Government frightened old people in particular to stay at home. Having done that, it would obviously be hard to coax people out to be seen in hospital by folk in full PPE. Can we please ground ourselves in life as it is lived.
charlie14 wrote: » I believe lockdown was the right thing to do regardless of what the modelling fiqure was.
charlie14 wrote: » Your car accidents analogy makes little sense considering all the road traffic restrictions that have been imposed over years to lower deaths.
charlie14 wrote: » If you believe older people are that timid that the would need to be coaxed out if there was a serious medical emergency, it doesn`t appear you know many.
VillageIdiot71 wrote: » Grand, and thanks for being so clear. It would be bonkers to shut down the world is the estimated mortality was less than three people, but at least we now understand that your view is that unrealistic.Makes lots of sense, as the approach didn't involve prohibition of any situation that might have any risk of a collision.? But we know hospital activity plummeted. You are arguing against reality.
charlie14 wrote: » The reality of your posts are that you do not like lockdown because it inconveniences you. Everything else is just noise.
VillageIdiot71 wrote: » How have I been inconvenienced? I'm working from home, on full pay, saving hours of commuting time. The noise is the substantial case you can't answer. But then again, you've already stated your completely irrational position. You'd shut down the world if you thought even one person was at risk. Bonkers. Go on talking to yourself.
charlie14 wrote: » Then can we assume you believe the the Swedish modelling figures were also fake for immunity to create public acceptance of the strategy ? I believe lockdown was the right thing to do regardless of what the modelling fiqure was. You are opposed to lockdown so it is up to you to give what you believe the figure would have been without it. That is how it works here. Your car accidents analogy makes little sense considering all the road traffic restrictions that have been imposed over years to lower deaths. From deaths, not just here but worldwide, we know that the aged are the most vulnerable to this virus. If you believe older people are that timid that the would need to be coaxed out if there was a serious medical emergency, it doesn`t appear you know many. Anything that didn`t require an emergency response, being cognisant of the danger to themselves from this virus by visiting A&E, they would have contacted their G.P. as was advised.
Ginger n Lemon wrote: » Damn, you really said that :eek: That explains few things. Charles I am back, did I miss much? I see that over 25% of Swedish deaths with covid are people older than 90 years of age, do you think there is some over-counting of deaths with covid going on there? HIQA came out last week and said that Ireland has seriously over-counted covid deaths...
Deleted User wrote: » It appears not given the excess deaths in Swedan at the end of May stood at 4,800 and the covid death rate stood at 4,600
Ginger n Lemon wrote: » I see that over 25% of Swedish deaths with covid are people older than 90 years of age, do you think there is some over-counting of deaths with covid going on there? HIQA came out last week and said that Ireland has seriously over-counted covid deaths...
tobefrank321 wrote: » Sweden will end up like Ireland at year end, with a front loading of deaths of those who were already very ill in the first 6 months of 2020. That's what covid 19 mostly does, it kills a majority who would already have died this year. One estimate in the UK was 75%. One of the reasons why Sweden's death rate will start to drop is not because of greater social distancing but largely because those in care homes who were going to die have already died while others have become immune.
cnocbui wrote: » This will not go down well with the bleeding hearts, at all, at all, at all.
99nsr125 wrote: » Exactly, the area under the curve remains the same whether condensed or stretched out over time
charlie14 wrote: » Some people seem to regard under the curve as some predetermined number that will die regardless of what action is taken. Flattening the curve means slowing the spread of infections so medical services are not overrun as was the case in Italy. The most common example of flattening the curve is the different approaches taken by St Louis and Philadelphia in 1918 during the Spanish Flu pandemic. Philadelphia carried on much as normal while St Louis cancelled public gathering, closed schools, used quarantine and social distancing to limit the spread. Philadelphia had twice the death rate of St Louis. What St Louis showed is that if you keep the number of infections down, you keep the death rate down. If in that you can prevent the vulnerable from becoming infected, then you reduce the rate further.
99nsr125 wrote: » We don't have post or preventative treatment, it is our own antibodies that return us to health, so as demoralizing as it is the area under the curve remains the same regardless.
bb1234567 wrote: » Could you link to that estimate? I personally think this is not true, I think that in Europe the nursing home outbreaks greatly skewed average age of death because infections were so concentrated among that very elderly group. Not only are they at higher risk of death but also higher risk of catching it than people in the general popualtion as they reside in an enclosed care facility, similarly people in prisons are much more likely to catch in than the average person for the same reason. While younger people arent as at much risk obviously , excess mortality among all age groups in Europe still massively increased during March and April, it was too killing young people who ordinarily wouldn't have died, although the total number of deaths under 65 was not very high because covid has just not been exposed to a great amount of the general community in most European countries. Only 1 in 20 or so Europeans have even been exposed to the virus. In places where it is spreading uncontrollably- young people too are most definitely suffering from it. Around 21,000 people in Brazil under 60 have died of covidhttps://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/05/22/in-brazil-covid-19-hitting-young-people-harder.html In Mexico and India I believe it's even higher, I remember reading 50% of the deaths in those countries are under 60, I'll try find the link.But that's over 30,000 more people in their 30's 40's and 50's who have died of covid. In Indonesia hundreds of children have died of covidhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-indonesia-children/indonesias-hundreds-of-suspected-child-virus-deaths-highlight-danger-idUSKBN23I1D7 Peru, Ecuador and several other countries with very very young populatios too have tens of thousands of excess deaths. 6 weeks ago Peru and Ecuador each already had almost 20,000 more excess deaths than usual, I'm sure its far larger by now.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046If it only killed elderly who would die this year, covid would simply not be causing such high excess death in the developing world So it really seems like it's actually not as mild disease as originally thought . I think if it were to spread uncontrolled in Europe, many people who otherwise would not have died this year would die,and this would be further exaggerated by the hospitals overload
tobefrank321 wrote: » Regards Ireland, sure its all here.https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/ Excess deaths is a good metric at measuring the impact of covid 19 on a society. However some people refuse to accept that you can have covid 19 and still die of other causes such as terminal cancer or a weak heart. They also refuse to believe that covid 19 brought for date of deaths by a few months or even weeks. Many who died from covid 19 were very frail and already close to death. Its important to remember that. And so because we and other countries such as Italy, Spain and France had their peak in the first half of the year you will more than likely see excess deaths lower than normal in the last 6 months of the year. Unless of course increased cancer and other illness deaths rise which they probably will.
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