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Second wave

BeeSarah

How much do we have time before second wave of corona?

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robfowler78

owlbethere wrote: »

A few months will bring us to Christmas time and we will have a better understanding of the virus, treatments and any potential vaccines. Once Christmas and New year ends, we are into a new year and a new spring come February. It really isn't all that hard to wait it out for a vaccine.

I have confidence in the London vaccine. It was developed in relation to MERS that emerged in 2012. That MERS vaccine was already gone into trials. All they had to do was tweak the vaccine to this coronavirus. They now gone into phase 3 of the trail and production has started of the vaccine. I don't think they would have gone into phase 3 of the trails if phase 1 and 2 were a flop.

For me, the biggest risk is travelling and crowed spaces. I grew up without yearly holidays and I have no problem waiting it out for a year or even two if that's what it takes until a vaccine comes about.

Sorry I Have to ask how will you finance this year or 2 year lockdown. I take it you are paid in full at home maybe I'm wrong. It just seems to me that people assume everyone can afford an indefinite lockdown. I know I couldn't survive on 350 a week longterm.

Minier81

robfowler78 wrote: »

Sorry I Have to ask how will you finance this year or 2 year lockdown. I take it you are paid in full at home maybe I'm wrong. It just seems to me that people assume everyone can afford an indefinite lockdown. I know I couldn't survive on 350 a week longterm.

And no government could afford 350 a week longterm, it would become the standard unemployment rate. Having said that I have no intention of going near a busy pub or going on a foreign holiday til next year.

bucketybuck

robfowler78 wrote: »

Sorry I Have to ask how will you finance this year or 2 year lockdown. I take it you are paid in full at home maybe I'm wrong. It just seems to me that people assume everyone can afford an indefinite lockdown. I know I couldn't survive on 350 a week longterm.

This is the question I was about to ask. People keep talking about "waiting it out" as if it is just a matter of going back into a hole and hibernating for the winter. As if it is just a matter of putting your feet up with a sherry and enjoying the time off.

The reality is that there are very real and very serious consequences to "waiting it out". Businesses are going bust, people are losing jobs, families are breaking up, people are getting sicker from other illnesses going untreated, children are missing out on their education.

A few months apparently means until Christmas. That is 6 months. How many people will lose their jobs and then their homes in that 6 months? Do they not matter?

robfowler78

Minier81 wrote: »

And no government could afford 350 a week longterm, it would become the standard unemployment rate. Having said that I have no intention of going near a busy pub or going on a foreign holiday til next year.

That's exactly it and everyone can follow the guidelines as set out by the government. I just can't phantom how people could survive for 6 months let alone a year or 2 with no income. It just smacks to me of people who aren't effected to much by the economic factors of not having a wage for that length of time. I for one think that the amount of covid cases is going to rise as things open that's a given but once we can keep it at a manageable level we will have to learn to live with it.

robfowler78

bucketybuck wrote: »

This is the question I was about to ask. People keep talking about "waiting it out" as if it is just a matter of going back into a hole and hibernating for the winter. As if it is just a matter of putting your feet up with a sherry and enjoying the time off.

The reality is that there are very real and very serious consequences to "waiting it out". Businesses are going bust, people are losing jobs, families are breaking up, people are getting sicker from other illnesses going untreated, children are missing out on their education.

A few months apparently means until Christmas. That is 6 months. How many people will lose their jobs and then their homes in that 6 months? Do they not matter?

The problem I believe is there are people exactly like that who are working from home fully paid and could easily live like that for years or are getting 350 and can live on that also.

owlbethere

robfowler78 wrote: »

Sorry I Have to ask how will you finance this year or 2 year lockdown. I take it you are paid in full at home maybe I'm wrong. It just seems to me that people assume everyone can afford an indefinite lockdown. I know I couldn't survive on 350 a week longterm.

I was talking about holidays abroad and not holidaying. I continue to work but outside of that, I'm happy to put my head down and keep life low key and take it easy in time off, avoid crowds. I don't think I'm putting my life on hold. My life is so much more richer now in time and energy.

1st dalkey dalkey

I think someone from Leo's crew said recently that we are better prepared now then we were in March.
If there is a second wave we will be better able to cope.
Also that there is little likelihood of another complete lockdown, although there may be need of local or regional lockdown if numbers do flair up somewhere.
This seems sensible enough, except for the testing and tracing issue, which I don't think they really got right up too now.
Still, i am fairly confident that we can control any new wave without complete lockdown.

robfowler78

owlbethere wrote: »

I was talking about holidays abroad and not holidaying. I continue to work but outside of that, I'm happy to put my head down and keep life low key and take it easy in time off, avoid crowds. I don't think I'm putting my life on hold. My life is so much more richer now in time and energy.

Ah right sorry miss read ( hopping between threads hard to keep up lol) I thought you ment staying in lockdown until a vaccine. I didn't mean it directed at you personally either I was just curious as to how people could lockdown for so long.

phormium

I'm wondering how not opening pubs though will help, was speaking to a friend this morning who mentioned he was out last night, so I asked sure where could you have been?

Turns out a bus load of them went to a private house where a bar has been installed, a large bar by all accounts, bigger than my kitchen apparently! These were not even a group of people who were all known to each other and friends previously but associated through work with the 'pub' owner and all just invited for a night out.

He said they were told to wear masks for the bus but admitted everyone took them off as soon as the journey started. Turns out this is not the first in house 'bar' he has been to either, amazing what's going on in the countryside!

faceman

phormium wrote: »

I'm wondering how not opening pubs though will help, was speaking to a friend this morning who mentioned he was out last night, so I asked sure where could you have been?

Turns out a bus load of them went to a private house where a bar has been installed, a large bar by all accounts, bigger than my kitchen apparently! These were not even a group of people who were all known to each other and friends previously but associated through work with the 'pub' owner and all just invited for a night out.

He said they were told to wear masks for the bus but admitted everyone took them off as soon as the journey started. Turns out this is not the first in house 'bar' he has been to either, amazing what's going on in the countryside!

Long lasting lockdowns just don’t work. Mask wearing should be like the smoking ban. Mandatory with on the spot fines

fly_agaric

phormium wrote: »

I'm wondering how not opening pubs though will help, was speaking to a friend this morning who mentioned he was out last night, so I asked sure where could you have been?

Turns out a bus load of them went to a private house where a bar has been installed, a large bar by all accounts, bigger than my kitchen apparently! These were not even a group of people who were all known to each other and friends previously but associated through work with the 'pub' owner and all just invited for a night out.

He said they were told to wear masks for the bus but admitted everyone took them off as soon as the journey started. Turns out this is not the first in house 'bar' he has been to either, amazing what's going on in the countryside!

Maybe in your social circle. I'd be fairly confident most people do not have many friends on tap (!) with where-withall to both install a full bar in their house and also invite a busloads over to it for drinks on them regularly!

Nearly every street in the country almost has a pub on it and almost everyone has the money to go out for a few drinks in their nearest one. As places where large groups of strangers can gather indoors at close quarters after everyone has gotten a bit messy later in the evening, they must be a bigger risk for spread of the virus.

[Deleted User]

owlbethere wrote: »

A few months will bring us to Christmas time and we will have a better understanding of the virus, treatments and any potential vaccines. Once Christmas and New year ends, we are into a new year and a new spring come February. It really isn't all that hard to wait it out for a vaccine.

I have confidence in the London vaccine. It was developed in relation to MERS that emerged in 2012. That MERS vaccine was already gone into trials. All they had to do was tweak the vaccine to this coronavirus. They now gone into phase 3 of the trail and production has started of the vaccine. I don't think they would have gone into phase 3 of the trails if phase 1 and 2 were a flop.

For me, the biggest risk is travelling and crowed spaces. I grew up without yearly holidays and I have no problem waiting it out for a year or even two if that's what it takes until a vaccine comes about.

You can't base the national plan around a vaccine that may or may not come to fruition. You also can't expect people to put their lives on hold for a year, it won't happen.

UrbanSprawl

The second wave will certainly come very few are immune..is coronavirus a hoax I doubt it .Lockdown slowed it but we cant be lockdowned 4ever if ppl can get with the program we might ride this thing out if we pretend its grand or its doesnt affect and behave like brits well it will spread

owlbethere

UrbanSprawl wrote: »

The second wave will certainly come very few are immune..is coronavirus a hoax I doubt it .Lockdown slowed it but we cant be lockdowned 4ever if ppl can get with the program we might ride this thing out if we pretend its grand or its doesnt affect and behave like brits well it will spread

Teresa mannion was on the news yesterday and what she said when reporting around the West was striking. She said if we behave with common sense and follow the governments guidelines we can hopefully have some normality and safely reopen.

Those weren't her exact words but that was the gist of it. It makes sense.

firemansam4

UrbanSprawl wrote:

The second wave will certainly come very few are immune..is coronavirus a hoax I doubt it .Lockdown slowed it but we cant be lockdowned 4ever if ppl can get with the program we might ride this thing out if we pretend its grand or its doesnt affect and behave like brits well it will spread

There are a few things I would hope that may help with the 2nd wave not being as severe this time...

1. We may have very low imunity in the community, however in high risk areas such as hospitals, nursing homes and meat processing plants ect there is going to be a much higher percentage imunity from the first wave.

2. Masks are becoming more common now in high risk settings, hopefully the government may make it mandatory in many more settings.

3. We have now adapted to social distancing and hand washing far more now to what it was like at the start of the pandemic.

4. We have learned a lot more about treating the disease and effective drugs to help reduce fatalities.

A second wave of some sort looks nearly inevitable, but hopefully won't be any where near as severe as the first.

paw patrol

owlbethere wrote: »

Teresa mannion was on the news yesterday and what she said when reporting around the West was striking. She said if we behave with common sense and follow the governments guidelines we can hopefully have some normality and safely reopen.

Those weren't her exact words but that was the gist of it. It makes sense.

i love Teresa as much as the next guy but i'll probably pass in deferring to her on how to live my life while trying to avoid the virus.

xl500

I after 4 months went for lunch yesterday in a hotel I was very impressed with the way they were setup great social distancing great sanitising very professional

On the way home my wife wanted to visit the new Decathlon store well what a difference this place is a disaster waiting to happen if an infected person happens to visit

There was no control at all kids running everywhere people handling clothes sports equipment putting them back next person handling the same items again

I did not see one member of staff wearing gloves or masks

I find it unreal that you can only sit for a limited time in bar but in retail it seems anything goes

MickeyLeari

xl500 wrote: »

I after 4 months went for lunch yesterday in a hotel I was very impressed with the way they were setup great social distancing great sanitising very professional

On the way home my wife wanted to visit the new Decathlon store well what a difference this place is a disaster waiting to happen if an infected person happens to visit

There was no control at all kids running everywhere people handling clothes sports equipment putting them back next person handling the same items again

I did not see one member of staff wearing gloves or masks

I find it unreal that you can only sit for a limited time in bar but in retail it seems anything goes

I think most retail has dealt with this very well. Agree to call out one business (and you are not the first to do so with that new business) but not fair on the whole sector.

Can you indicate the hotel where you had a good experience?

xl500

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I think most retail has dealt with this very well. Agree to call out one business (and you are not the first to do so with that new business) but not fair on the whole sector.

Can you indicate the hotel where you had a good experience?

The hotel was the Castleknock hotel really well done re Covid restrictions

I wasnt saying all retail were not adhering to any guidelines I was trying to make the point that it seems there is nothing to stop the poor ones doing what they like we need some enforcement or members of the public to call them out I did email HSE re Decathlon

Gods Gift

owlbethere wrote: »

Teresa mannion was on the news yesterday and what she said when reporting around the West was striking. She said if we behave with common sense and follow the governments guidelines we can hopefully have some normality and safely reopen.

Those weren't her exact words but that was the gist of it. It makes sense.

And for gods sake, don’t make unnecessary journeys.

Walnut Salad

My uncle is a regular at his village pub. He went in last night, sat at the bar and drank with 2 friends for 5 hours.
To be fair they were the only 3 at the bar. The barman did not ask them to order any food and many people at the 'dining' tables were
only eating a punnet of chips. He said it was 'busy' too.

Risingshadoo

We're probably due a second wave.

CMCXCV

18 cases on a Sunday, when it's usually the lowest of the days. Pubs are packed and Dublin looks like Coronavirus never existed. Wont be long now before it starts doubling in cases now.

The chan chan man

The pubs in town were having by the looks of some of the videos. I went out to Decathlon yesterday, first time being anywhere crowded since march.. You had to queue to get in and once in the place was like a cattle mart!

I won’t be doing it again! I expect the second wave is already rising, its inevitable.

ax530

Walnut Salad wrote: »

My uncle is a regular at his village pub. He went in last night, sat at the bar and drank with 2 friends for 5 hours.
To be fair they were the only 3 at the bar. The barman did not ask them to order any food and many people at the 'dining' tables were
only eating a punnet of chips. He said it was 'busy' too.

pleased for him nice to get that normality back and many people only want a few drinks not a full meal. Mixed reports about sitting at bars lots of people seem to think having high stools on premises is an offence.

Limpy

Covid is.more or less gone from the community, unless a health worker brings it back in.

ShyMets

ax530 wrote: »

pleased for him nice to get that normality back and many people only want a few drinks not a full meal. Mixed reports about sitting at bars lots of people seem to think having high stools on premises is an offence.

Its no offence to have bar stools at the bar. The current guidelines state that only table service should be available.

So customers should not be sitting at the bar. More updated guidelines will be issued before the 20th July. So there is a chance that from that date onwards people will be allowed to sit at the bar

B.A._Baracus

Limpy wrote: »

Covid is.more or less gone from the community, unless a health worker brings it back in.

I am no expert but wasn't there 18 new confirmed cases reported yesterday?
and something like a week ago there was around 4. Sounds to me like to virus multiplying again.

Limpy

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I am no expert but wasn't there 18 new confirmed cases reported yesterday?
and something like a week ago there was around 4. Sounds to me like to virus multiplying again.

Most of the case's if not all are clusters from hospitals and care homes. You have the odd Iraqi flouting the rules and causing a cluster in his family too.

I'll gaurentee you if you go onto town with no mask and dont social distance you won't get covid19.

Herb Powell

Nobody knows for sure when there will be a second wave.

For months now people have been hysterical at the sight of any groups of people, on beaches, in queues wherever, always with the "second wave imminent" comments.

Yet that hasn't happened.

I am not dismissing the seriousness of the situation, but would people not give it up and just fuccking admit they really don't know as much as they let on.