COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can't but be sceptical at imminent vaccine claims. From the very beginning it would always be a forlorn hope weapon to prop confidence with the public principally through the market. We'll be hearing about vaccines for the next decade. While genuine efforts are being made most of it is noise to prop up stocks.

This crossed the wires earlier today...

Yeh don't say...

Could you please provide a citation or two for the above statements?

Gael23

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Oxford vaccine looks good for September. Please God we'll have a proper Christmas this year if all goes well.

Calls for people to stay apart at Christmas will fall on deaf ears

Gael23 wrote: »

Calls for people to stay apart at Christmas will fall on deaf ears

If we had good news about a vaccine in phase 3 trials later this year, it will be interesting to see the response of the public. It'd be a shame to catch the virus with all it's unknown effects if you know a vaccine is only around the corner. On the other hand, it may encourage some other people to get a sort of euphoria and begin to take risks? Personally I'd probably be taking steps to reduce my chances of getting the virus, and Christmas can wait.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can't but be sceptical at imminent vaccine claims. From the very beginning it would always be a forlorn hope weapon to prop confidence with the public principally through the market. We'll be hearing about vaccines for the next decade. While genuine efforts are being made most of it is noise to prop up stocks.

This crossed the wires earlier today...

Yeh don't say...

Seriously Kermit I think you get a lot of undue flack on the main covid page but you inflict a lot of it on yourself.

Kermit.de.frog

A lot of work goes in to medicine, it takes years and years and there may never be a vaccine.

There are so many filters to get through to get effectiveness and crucially safety.

You wouldn't take a drug that's barely been tested on a chimp.

It takes a long time.

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

Calls for people to stay apart at Christmas will fall on deaf ears

9 months of isolation is unsustainable, risk of far too much collective mental health damage likely to come out of that.

[Deleted User]

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Seriously Kermit I think you get a lot of undue flack on the main covid page but you inflict a lot of it on yourself.

He's being realistic, it might not be a very popular thing to say. My hopes would be that we see some form of a vaccine next year. This year seems like a pipe dream.

Interesting finding from Brazil, 17% might seem small, but still significant enough to be of use (it's widely available) even though the expected effect might only last 30 days or so.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.20142505v1

?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd4%2F44%2F88a1534e4f6c89519fd361c4e61e%2Fsd-graphics-w1-sd-g-coronavirus-vaccine-efforts.jpg

This person is on the Oxford trial and has a photograph.
https://twitter.com/TheBoyDips

A warning however, you may find their Twitter feed distressing or disturbing - not because of the vaccine, but because they are a Liverpool fan.

Sconsey

I think the Oxford crowd said the absolutely best case would be a vaccine available in October, actual availability for Joe Public could be a good few months after that. And that is, as said, the best case and probably not realistic.

The Chinese vaccines are work in porgress and I think there are two candidates that are fairly well advanced but I am sure we would be hearing more about them if they were progressing faster than the Oxford one. Same with all the other advanced trials.

They are all talking about the first half of next year as a best case scenario.

I personally do think we will have a vaccine before the end of next year, I seriously doubt the one and only candidate for this year will make it. I am assuming it will be a 'sheltered' Christmas this year, not the end of the world.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A lot of work goes in to medicine, it takes years and years and there may never be a vaccine.

There are so many filters to get through to get effectiveness and crucially safety.

You wouldn't take a drug that's barely been tested on a chimp.

It takes a long time.

Well luckily it's not being tested on chimps they're on phase 3 testing thousands of people and they're liking what they're seeing in relation to immunity.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He's being realistic, it might not be a very popular thing to say. My hopes would be that we see some form of a vaccine next year. This year seems like a pipe dream.

He's not being realistic he's saying we'll be strung along with talk of a vaccine contrary to what Oxford, fauci and several others have said. He's accusing them basically of lying to people because he doesn't want to believe a vaccine is right round the corner. You can be realistic without sticking your fingers in your ears when you hear good news.

hmmm wrote: »

This person is on the Oxford trial and has a photograph.
https://twitter.com/TheBoyDips

A warning however, you may find their Twitter feed distressing or disturbing - not because of the vaccine, but because they are a Liverpool fan.

The fact they're a Liverpool fan makes me like them even more. YNWA.

Utopia Parkway

A jab against coronavirus should last for several years at least, said the British scientist whose own vaccine project is the global front-runner.

Professor Sarah Gilbert told MPs she was optimistic that a vaccine would provide ‘a good duration of immunity’.

She is the world-renowned expert leading an Oxford University team that is devising a vaccine, so her claim could help to dispel the fears over how long protection against Covid-19 might last.

Concerns had been raised after those with other types of coronavirus – which are less dangerous and cause the common cold – were able, in tests, to be reinfected within a year.

But Professor Gilbert told the Commons science and technology committee there may be a better result from a vaccine than the natural immunity acquired when individuals simply recover from a virus.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8481061/Vaccine-long-term-protection-says-Oxford-study-chief.html

Interesting bit on the development of quick fire tests for the virus as well.

But he said he has now seen tests for coronavirus of a good standard which can produce a result in a ‘few minutes’.

LiquidZeb wrote: »

He's not being realistic he's saying we'll be strung along with talk of a vaccine contrary to what Oxford, fauci and several others have said. He's accusing them basically of lying to people because he doesn't want to believe a vaccine is right round the corner. You can be realistic without sticking your fingers in your ears when you hear good news.

The reality which the "it takes 10 years" group is ignoring is that we already have vaccines - over a hundred of them. This is years faster than normal because our technology has improved, as has the speed at which information is transmitted.

Similarly, we are not waiting to manufacture them. Some of the leading candidates are already being manufactured in bulk. This is also shaving years off the timeline.

Phase 1 & 2 trials have also been combined for many of the vaccines, also saving time. The trials still last as long as normal, they're just being run in parallel.

There's a sense of the Apollo project about this. Instead of waiting for phases to finish, the entire world is running multiple phases in parallel and taking the chance that we will waste billions as a consequence. If a vaccine fails (and many will), the manufactured vaccine will be thrown away.

The question now is whether the vaccines work, and whether there is any unexpected problems we will encounter. That's a complete unknown, and what the Phase 3 trials are for by testing tens of thousands of people. After that the big timesink is how long it will take regulators to approve a vaccine - and even if you think the US regulator may be politically influenced (unlikely I think, but who knows), there are plenty of other sophisticated regulators (e.g. EU, Japan) who will also have to sign off on these vaccines.

astrofool

hmmm wrote: »

The reality which the "it takes 10 years" group is ignoring is that we already have vaccines - over a hundred of them. This is years faster than normal because our technology has improved, as has the speed at which information is transmitted.

Similarly, we are not waiting to manufacture them. Some of the leading candidates are already being manufactured in bulk. This is also shaving years off the timeline.

Phase 1 & 2 trials have also been combined for many of the vaccines, also saving time. The trials still last as long as normal, they're just being run in parallel.

There's a sense of the Apollo project about this. Instead of waiting for phases to finish, the entire world is running multiple phases in parallel and taking the chance that we will waste billions as a consequence. If a vaccine fails (and many will), the manufactured vaccine will be thrown away.

The question now is whether the vaccines work, and whether there is any unexpected problems we will encounter. That's a complete unknown, and what the Phase 3 trials are for by testing tens of thousands of people. After that the big timesink is how long it will take regulators to approve a vaccine - and even if you think the US regulator may be politically influenced (unlikely I think, but who knows), there are plenty of other sophisticated regulators (e.g. EU, Japan) who will also have to sign off on these vaccines.

The bit about the regulators is also a bit of a red herring, the regulators will already be working alongside the vaccine makers to ensure testing is being carried out correctly in sufficient numbers and diverse candidates. It's not like it will be developed and then tied up in red tape by bureaucrats, if trials go to plan and show positive results, approval time will be fairly short, especially for the ones being government backed (one exception may be the USA, which seems to de doing everything it can to mess up all procedures).

astrofool wrote: »

The bit about the regulators is also a bit of a red herring, the regulators will already be working alongside the vaccine makers to ensure testing is being carried out correctly in sufficient numbers and diverse candidates. It's not like it will be developed and then tied up in red tape by bureaucrats, if trials go to plan and show positive results, approval time will be fairly short, especially for the ones being government backed (one exception may be the USA, which seems to de doing everything it can to mess up all procedures).

Exactly I wouldn't want to be the civil servant or regulator who rains on this parade for the sake of bureaucracy.

irishgeo

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Exactly I wouldn't want to be the civil servant or regulator who rains on this parade for the sake of bureaucracy.

You wouldn't want to be him if some unknown side effect appears futher down the line and class action lawsuits start.

irishgeo wrote: »

You wouldn't want to be him if some unknown side effect appears futher down the line and class action lawsuits start.

But the safety of the Oxford vaccine assuming that's the first one rolled out is already guaranteed. People are just fearmongering that the vaccine will make them grow a second arsehole or something.

ACitizenErased

Indian vaccine is launching August 15th. Their phase trials are just 6 weeks long....

https://www.indiatvnews.com/health/covaxin-launched-august-1-all-about-india-covid-19-vaccine-bharat-biotech-icmr-631243

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Indian vaccine is launching August 15th. Their phase trials are just 6 weeks long....

https://www.indiatvnews.com/health/covaxin-launched-august-1-all-about-india-covid-19-vaccine-bharat-biotech-icmr-631243

That has got to be a typo or some other mistake. They only now got their phase 1/2 trials aproved. The 15th Aug is only like 6 weeks away. That doesn't even allow for proper data analysis even if one would squeeze phases together and get really good signals from all of them. Also, it's an inactivated virus vaccine, it takes time to grow the damn thing and ensure you've inactivated it correctly. They'd have to be growing that stuff en masse at this point in time already to have any chance of being able to meet that date.
Unless they've struck a deal with the Chinese on their Sinovac version and are just replicating their process.

ACitizenErased

Hmmzis wrote: »

That has got to be a typo or some other mistake. They only now got their phase 1/2 trials aproved. The 15th Aug is only like 6 weeks away. That doesn't even allow for proper data analysis even if one would squeeze phases together and get really good signals from all of them. Also, it's an inactivated virus vaccine, it takes time to grow the damn thing and ensure you've inactivated it correctly. They'd have to be growing that stuff en masse at this point in time already to have any chance of being able to meet that date.
Unless they've struck a deal with the Chinese on their Sinovac version and are just replicating their process.

Apparently its not a mistake

Hmmzis wrote: »

That has got to be a typo or some other mistake. They only now got their phase 1/2 trials aproved. The 15th Aug is only like 6 weeks away..

That's a confusing article. It also says " "The phase I and II trials will take around three months to be completed," which sounds more normal (a bit slow even).

Just speculating - maybe they are going to be trying a ring vaccination approach with what they have in August, and using that as an extended Phase 3 trial (instead of mass immunisation). This would be a good use of limited supply.

hmmm wrote: »

That's a confusing article. It also says " "The phase I and II trials will take around three months to be completed," which sounds more normal (a bit slow even).

Just speculating - maybe they are going to be trying a ring vaccination approach with what they have in August, and using that as an extended Phase 3 trial (instead of mass immunisation). This would be a good use of limited supply.

That's actually a good point, if the protection is sterilizing enough, that could work quite well. It worked with ebola, worth a try.

Edit:
Here is the link to the actual approved trial - http://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/pmaindet2.php?trialid=45184&EncHid=&userName=bharat%20biotech

There is acomment there at the bottom that says the current 1100+ volunteer count could be incresed if phase 1 shows good safety results. Still, kind of tight for 6 weeks even is it's a phase 2 rolled over to a massive phase 3/4. Mad stuff in mad times.

Sconsey

Not a typo, but who knows...

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias-first-coronavirus-vaccine-may-be-launched-by-august-15-2256269

Gael23

Any hope of a vaccine this year?

Sconsey

Gael23 wrote: »

Any hope of a vaccine this year?

I'm not an expert but have been keeping tabs...I would say there is very little chance of members of the public in Ireland getting a vaccine anytime this year. There is really only one group working on a vaccine that are making noises of having a candidate ready this year (the Oxford one). And even if that went perfectly I doubt it would be manufactured in sufficient quantities to be generally available before the first half of next year.
There is this wildcard from India that very little seems to have been known about but I wouldn't bank on it. Even if it works and is safe the trials will take months to figure that out.

If I was a betting man I would be looking for odds in the 20:1 range for a vaccine to be ready this year. And even then there would be no more than a few million doses initially available worldwide. I don't rate our chances of getting too many of those.