Madeleine McCann

limnam · 28-06-2020 10:03PM

strandroad wrote: »

That's consistent with seeing a photo or video of someone deceased; you could argue that any such photo could in theory be staged.

It can't be concrete and not concrete at the same time.

It's concrete or it's not.

strandroad · 28-06-2020 10:06PM

limnam wrote: »

It can't be concrete and not concrete at the same time.

It's concrete or it's not.

They said it's concrete but not forensic, which it would be.

limnam · 28-06-2020 10:11PM

strandroad wrote: »

They said it's concrete but not forensic, which it would be.

If it's concrete she's dead.

She's not maybe alive.

Otherwise it's not concrete.

buttercups88 · 28-06-2020 10:18PM

limnam wrote: »

It can't be concrete and not concrete at the same time.

It's concrete or it's not.

It can be a concrete photo or video of a dead body but with no way of formerly ID-ing the body they can't 100% say it is her

limnam · 28-06-2020 10:20PM

buttercups88 wrote: »

It can be a concrete photo or video of a dead body but with no way of formerly ID-ing the body they can't 100% say it is her

So don't call it concrete and then say maybe she's alive.

Forgive me for expecting a bit of professionalism from a police force.

Banana Republic. · 28-06-2020 10:21PM

buttercups88 wrote: »

It can be a concrete photo or video of a dead body but with no way of formerly ID-ing the body they can't 100% say it is her

That’s sad to even think of. Not even worth thinking of

Day Lewin · 28-06-2020 11:06PM

Yes indeed, a photo or video is possible though a very unappetising prospect.

I too am inclined to believe that the German police and prosecutors must be on to something - surely they must be professional enough not to make a sensation out of thin air.
It can take a long time to gather evidence and pursue every lead to the bitter end, it could easily take a year.
And we might not hear one official word between now and then, for fear of prejudicing the outcome.
I do believe that they are determined to do it - if only because the claims attributed to this CB are so gruesome and appalling.
I just hope that the detectives are beavering away behind the scenes and will get their man in the end.

MonsterCookie · 28-06-2020 11:10PM

Day Lewin wrote: »

Yes indeed, a photo or video is possible though a very unappetising prospect.

I too am inclined to believe that the German police and prosecutors must be on to something - surely they must be professional enough not to make a sensation out of thin air.
It can take a long time to gather evidence and pursue every lead to the bitter end, it could easily take a year.
And we might not hear one official word between now and then, for fear of prejudicing the outcome.
I do believe that they are determined to do it - if only because the claims attributed to this CB are so gruesome and appalling.
I just hope that the detectives are beavering away behind the scenes and will get their man in the end.

Think i read somewhere there’s a team of over 100 people working on it.

Spanish Eyes · 28-06-2020 11:20PM

Occam's Razor again. Think about it.

Which theory is most likely correct? If you don't find evidence like strange fingerprints or human footprints or missing possessions to support theory #2, William of Ockham would say that the simpler solution (#1) is most likely to be correct in this case. The first solution only involves two parts--two entities and two actions. On the other hand, the second theory requires at least five parts--you, the dog, a hypothetical unknown intruder, some plausible motivation, and various actions. It is needlessly complex. Occam's basic rule was "Thou shalt not multiply extra entities unnecessarily," or to phrase it in modern terms, "Don't speculate about extra hypothetical components if you can find an explanation that is equally plausible without them." All things being equal, the simpler theory is more likely to be correct, rather than one that relies upon many hypothetical additions to the evidence already collected.

Day Lewin · 28-06-2020 11:37PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Occam's Razor again. Think about it.

Which theory is most likely correct? If you don't find evidence like strange fingerprints or human footprints or missing possessions to support theory #2, William of Ockham would say that the simpler solution (#1) is most likely to be correct in this case. The first solution only involves two parts--two entities and two actions. On the other hand, the second theory requires at least five parts--you, the dog, a hypothetical unknown intruder, some plausible motivation, and various actions. It is needlessly complex. Occam's basic rule was "Thou shalt not multiply extra entities unnecessarily," or to phrase it in modern terms, "Don't speculate about extra hypothetical components if you can find an explanation that is equally plausible without them." All things being equal, the simpler theory is more likely to be correct, rather than one that relies upon many hypothetical additions to the evidence already collected.

Shucks, there goes my alien theory. Too many entities.

Spanish Eyes · 28-06-2020 11:43PM

Day Lewin wrote: »

Shucks, there goes my alien theory. Too many entities.

LOL. I know, it is totally bizarre and that is why there is so much involvement and interest in this case.

buttercups88 · 29-06-2020 08:45AM

Day Lewin wrote: »

Yes indeed, a photo or video is possible though a very unappetising prospect.

I too am inclined to believe that the German police and prosecutors must be on to something - surely they must be professional enough not to make a sensation out of thin air.
It can take a long time to gather evidence and pursue every lead to the bitter end, it could easily take a year.
And we might not hear one official word between now and then, for fear of prejudicing the outcome.
I do believe that they are determined to do it - if only because the claims attributed to this CB are so gruesome and appalling.
I just hope that the detectives are beavering away behind the scenes and will get their man in the end.

They would have to have something or else I'm sure they could be open to legal action of some sort.

The DM again today has an article mentioning images found at his "secret lair" around 8000 images found buried there. God love the poor unfortunates who have to spend days going through them i don't know how anyone could do that job

Banana Republic. · 29-06-2020 10:21AM

buttercups88 wrote: »

They would have to have something or else I'm sure they could be open to legal action of some sort.

The DM again today has an article mentioning images found at his "secret lair" around 8000 images found buried there. God love the poor unfortunates who have to spend days going through them i don't know how anyone could do that job

I think with CB they can uncover so much about it that might lead to other crimes and the police forces can get more funding but the feeling that it’s not the conclusion about what happened Madeline for me is strong.

It’s only a hunch but it’s not uncommon for police forces to use other cases to get funding for their own and link what they can to a “possible” suspect. I have my doubts with this CB guy being involved as Amaral clearly warned of this a year ago, that cannot be dismissed at all.

Day Lewin · 29-06-2020 10:29AM

Banana Republic. wrote: »

I think with CB they can uncover so much about it that might lead to other crimes and the police forces can get more funding but the feeling that it’s not the conclusion about what happened Madeline for me is strong.

It’s only a hunch but it’s not uncommon for police forces to use other cases to get funding for their own and link what they can to a “possible” suspect. I have my doubts with this CB guy being involved as Amaral clearly warned of this a year ago, that cannot be dismissed at all.

Hmm, could be something like this.

I've no idea how German police forces are funded! Or structured, even. Needs a little research, eh! (Heads for Google...)

What did Amaral actually say? Did he ever mention Christian B by name? [I mean, before the present spate of publicity]

buttercups88 · 29-06-2020 10:49AM

Day Lewin wrote: »

Hmm, could be something like this.

I've no idea how German police forces are funded! Or structured, even. Needs a little research, eh! (Heads for Google...)

What did Amaral actually say? Did he ever mention Christian B by name? [I mean, before the present spate of publicity]

Amaral said it would be pinned on a known German pedophile who was currently in prison in Germany. Pretty sure he said age as well.

I think its a bit much of a coincidence for there not to be something loads of images of young kids found, this guy was in area madeleine disappeared from, history of crimes against children, known to steal from holiday apartments in the area..

MonsterCookie · 29-06-2020 11:04AM

60 minutes Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXsXXxRek2Q

mostly summarises what we have heard recently about CB. But they also interview Hans Wolter in English (see 8:50 for the clearest statement yet that they think they have their guy).

Day Lewin · 29-06-2020 12:18PM

MonsterCookie wrote: »

60 minutes Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXsXXxRek2Q

mostly summarises what we have heard recently about CB. But they also interview Hans Wolter in English (see 8:50 for the clearest statement yet that they think they have their guy).

Sweet lord in heaven, that is a grisly watch.
I understand that some of it is imagined reconstructions but sweet Jesus, the thought that people like this are walking round - sickens my stomach.

And they do, they really do - even if in THIS case the facts are unknown, the existence of Paedo chatrooms unfortunately is true, really they do exist, bl00dy hell why are humans such a squalid species?

MonsterCookie · 29-06-2020 12:21PM

Day Lewin wrote: »

Sweet lord in heaven, that is a grisly watch.
I understand that some of it is imagined reconstructions but sweet Jesus, the thought that people like this are walking round - sickens my stomach.

And they do, they really do - even if in THIS case the facts are unknown, the existence of Paedo chatrooms unfortunately is true, really they do exist, bl00dy hell why are humans such a squalid species?

its pretty gut wrenching alright

tobefrank321 · 29-06-2020 03:31PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

The German prosecutor has said they have concrete evidence that Madeleine is dead. Since day 1 of the investigation, no police force or investigator has ever made such a serious statement as that.

The same prosecutor who said he wrote a letter to the McCanns, which they denied receiving?

The same prosecutor who refuses to share information with other police forces who are investigating the case?

Yep, he's reliable alright. :rolleyes:

Is anyone capable of telling the truth about anything in this case?

ShineOn7 · 29-06-2020 03:42PM

So, almost a month on, we've another red herring "suspect" to add to the 20+ since 2007?

Yeah, thought that might happen

limnam · 29-06-2020 04:08PM

Concrete she's dead! [1]

[1] Maybe alive.

Day Lewin · 29-06-2020 04:55PM

More realistically, he sounds like a man who has been permitted to make an announcement but forbidden to say anything whatever about the facts uncovered to date.
Now that I think of it, the Gárdaí Síochána often sound like that too...

(If you consider, for example, the Deirdre Jacob case, they upgraded it to a murder investigation but they never would say just why.)

However that is another story for another day.

MonsterCookie · 29-06-2020 05:24PM

limnam wrote: »

Concrete she's dead! [1]

[1] Maybe alive.

Yes; but did you watch his interview with 60 minutes?

Banana Republic. · 29-06-2020 07:30PM

Day Lewin wrote: »

Hmm, could be something like this.

I've no idea how German police forces are funded! Or structured, even. Needs a little research, eh! (Heads for Google...)

What did Amaral actually say? Did he ever mention Christian B by name? [I mean, before the present spate of publicity]

No but he said a German will be used as a distraction or to be made suspect but he’s only a pawn being used. That’s not verbatim by the way.

Banana Republic. · 29-06-2020 07:36PM

Day Lewin wrote: »

Sweet lord in heaven, that is a grisly watch.
I understand that some of it is imagined reconstructions but sweet Jesus, the thought that people like this are walking round - sickens my stomach.

And they do, they really do - even if in THIS case the facts are unknown, the existence of Paedo chatrooms unfortunately is true, really they do exist, bl00dy hell why are humans such a squalid species?

Gonna watch this now, not looking forward to it but would like to know more about this guy plus this Australia channel is excellent.

listermint · 29-06-2020 07:55PM

Banana Republic. wrote: »

No but he said a German will be used as a distraction or to be made suspect but he’s only a pawn being used. That’s not verbatim by the way.

The Germans have zero to gain from planting anything on anyone for this murder disappearance.

Anyone that thinks that there is literally no rescuing you. You are off on cloud Cuckoo land.

If the German prosecutor has said they've strong evidence then that's what they have.

limnam · 29-06-2020 08:04PM

listermint wrote: »

If the German prosecutor has said they've strong evidence then that's what they have.

Far be it for me to come with wild conspiracy theories. I'm not a big fan of them.

But just on the above

It's possible for them to have evidence she's dead and it not be him.

It's possible that the evidence that she's dead be found in a location he had access to and not be him.

It's possible he's been stitched up and it not be the German police.

Just sayin'

Banana Republic. · 29-06-2020 08:09PM

Watching this you realise if he is the one then questioning the parents the guilt is real. I can’t even fathom how somebody can’t think of doing these things never mind actually doing them. They should be away for life, the rape and torture of that woman he should never see light again. The poor little girl, can’t even bring myself to think of it. This is definitely the strongest case seems like The Germans are fairly sure, maybe back tracked as they don’t want it to hinder the investigation. They are on this guy proper the last two years. How can a monster be left another, it defies how sick humans can be.

limnam · 29-06-2020 08:12PM

Banana Republic. wrote: »

Watching this you realise if he is the one then questioning the parents the guilt is real. I can’t even fathom how somebody can’t think of doing these things never mind actually doing them. They should be away for life, the rape and torture of that woman he should never see light again. The poor little girl, can’t even bring myself to think of it. This is definitely the strongest case seems like The Germans are fairly sure, maybe back tracked as they don’t want it to hinder the investigation. They are on this guy proper the last two years. How can a monster be left another, it defies how sick humans can be.

Sometimes the death penalty is the right penalty. Nothing good can come of this one. Just end it.

Day Lewin · 29-06-2020 08:52PM

limnam wrote: »

Sometimes the death penalty is the right penalty. Nothing good can come of this one. Just end it.

I agree. A broken one. Never was right, never will be. Get rid.

Madeleine McCann

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