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Second wave

BeeSarah

How much do we have time before second wave of corona?

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is_that_so

BrianD3 wrote: »

Seem to be a increase in cases alright. This could be another one those "crucial weeks" - if there are steady increases in new cases his week (combined with an increase in close contacts) we won't have to wait until winter for a second wave.

I'm far from being a lockdown fetishist but am starting to get quite worried about our relaxation of restrictions now. People were fed up of lockdown and if another one is introduced there will be far lower compliance IMO. There is already a blase attitude to basic social distancing, I must admit that i'm surprised at how quickly people have gone back to their old ways.

The health service is a shambles and it is nearly back to capacity with non Covid patients - that didn't take long. Care of the elderly in the community is an even bigger fiasco than it was pre Covid - daycare centres are closed indefinitely, meals on wheels have stopped, home help hours have been cut. We are not in a good position to deal with a second wave.

i understand the need to get back to business but some of what is happening is completely unnecessary and doesn't help the economy - e.g. in the public service, staff who have been working fine from home are getting pressured to get back into the office to do the same work that they were doing at home. Except once they are in the office they'll be back to shuffling paper and have to disinfect their hands before and after they touch a document or a photocopier etc., EVERY time. No mention of masks of course :rolleyes:

I'd love to see the evidence for the effectiveness of this obsessive hand sanitising vs the effectiveness of staff working from home and mask wearing. Seems to be a lot of thick people out there who can't grasp that this is a respiratory virus mostly spread by inhaling droplets from other people sneezing, coughing, breathing, talking.

Increase in cases is more likely to be the HSE care home testing programme.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0617/1147922-coronavirus-ireland/

ChelseaRentBoy

This Winter is going to be very grim indeed. I forsee a proper lockdown in mid October early November. Right now we are in a worse place than we where in March.

giveitholly

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

This Winter is going to be very grim indeed. I forsee a proper lockdown in mid October early November. Right now we are in a worse place than we where in March.

Could you enlighten us how we are in a worse position now than we were in March?

eddie73

Michael Osterholm, America's leading virologist, said this week that it is more likely to be a continuous global burn with rates of infections unpredictably lower and higher in regions, rather than a major second wave.

If this is true, we will see a spike, or several spikes over the course of the next 18 months, but no massive one like epidemics of the past.

I suppose, to summarize, if you call a major spike a 2nd wave, we are less likely to see it.

If you expect only one 2nd wave, we are more likely to see it in the context of one of several less severe ones over the course of the next year and a half.

The 'nobody really knows' disclaimer is in situ also.

faceman

“Well, I'm not used to supposin'. I'm just a workin' man. My boss does all the supposin', but I'll try one. Supposin' you talk us all out of this, and, uh, the kid really did knife his father?”

It’s all speculation right now but we can probably make some fair assumptions given what we have learned about the virus in recent months.

Farr’s law hasn’t changed and C19 fits it just like every other virus. Human behaviour has changed on the back of the virus. Social distancing, hygiene and masks. These all help prevent widespread resurgences. After all if they didn’t what purpose would hand washing have?

Masks need to be made mandatory here indoors. I used not think so but evidence is overwhelmingly showing that even a fabric mask can limit virus transmission. It’s a no brainer and inexcusable that the government hasn’t introduced it here.

There is inevitably be spikes and outbreaks. We know that from other countries. It’s how we deal with it that matters. Expedited lockdowns in isolated areas, speedy testing with efficient contact tracing. National lockdowns won’t occur unless a country is unable to expedite localised action.

I don’t have a lot of confidence in Ireland’s ability to do this. Other nations in Europe such as Germany and Spain have demonstrated they can.

Scratching my head at the lack of face mask legislation and lack of wearing too. We have to get back to some level of normality and get the country running.

If Ireland has a national lockdown again then Ireland will be sent back to the Stone Age.

Hoboo

BeeSarah wrote: »

How much do we have time before second wave of corona?

Sometime after when the first wave finishes. Which is no time soon. Do people actually think the first wave is over?

Strath2020

Second wave is inevitable. Know a number of people heading off on holidays. People will loosely quarantine if at all. Think there’s an impression out there that by August there will be no quarantine so they’ll just go for it. I don’t think they’ll do a full lockdown though. They’ll do it by cases/area & try and contain it. Have seen a very small increase in mask wearing but not enough to keep us protected.

J Mysterio

Very concerned.

Reading peoples opinions across the forums here it's all 'who does Holohan think he is?!?! I want my holidays!' and 'Ireland is a rip off! (so I need to travel)'.

This virus has not gone away and people are becoming very complacent indeed.

We have done well to this point but I'm worried that the government are starting to get it wrong now and beginning to ignore the science.

The UK had +890 cases yesterday, a big increase, and there is talk of a 'local' lockdown for Leicester.

Germany has seen local resurgences and local lockdowns.

The virus is absolutely tearing through the US and Brazil and their hospitals are already overwhelmed.

Wanderer78

J Mysterio wrote:

This virus has not gone away and people are becoming very complacent indeed.

...and with a rise in younger cases, this could get scary again

Deeper Blue

A second wave is not inevitable, it's undoubtedly possible but it's not an inevitability and people need to realise this.

Also, we are in a far better position than we were in March. To suggest otherwise is ludicrous scaremongering.

thebaz

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

This Winter is going to be very grim indeed. I forsee a proper lockdown in mid October early November. Right now we are in a worse place than we where in March.

The virus wil come back in winter combined with flu - could be a tough winter, but virus are a part of life , people have always died from season virus - bad flu's etc - but today we are expected to live forever in a germ free world - but how we are in a worse place than March has me baffled - people I think are copping on a bit and not believing the WHO Dr Tony doomsday over-saftyism mantra.

J Mysterio

thebaz wrote: »

The virus wil come back in winter combined with flu - could be a tough winter, but virus are a part of life , people have always died from season virus - bad flu's etc - but today we are expected to live forever in a germ free world - but how we are in a worse place than March has me baffled - people I think are copping on a bit and not believing the WHO Dr Tony doomsday over-saftyism mantra.

You sound like a Trumpeter/ Brexiteer level buffoon.

'Not believing the WHO Dr Tony doomsday over-saftyism (sic) mantra'.

So, not believing the experts? That's worked so well in the past.

I just hope there are less of you IRL than there appear to be on Boards, but I'm not confident.

ChelseaRentBoy

giveitholly wrote: »

Could you enlighten us how we are in a worse position now than we were in March?

Have you seen the countries financial situation?

thebaz

J Mysterio wrote: »

You sound like a Trumpeter/ Brexiteer level buffoon.

'Not believing the WHO Dr Tony doomsday over-saftyism (sic) mantra'.

So, not believing the experts? That's worked so well in the past.

I just hope there are less of you IRL than there appear to be on Boards, but I'm not confident.

Experts are never wrong - The Doomsday scenario the world was warned has thankfully not played out - but believe what you want , cause I have seen what Fear has done to many - reading Boards last March it fealt the end of the world was coming - we are still here and thankfully going back to some normailty - but the impact of the FEAR will be huge - Depression/Anxiety/OCD issues but sweep that under the carpet - cause all that matters is Covid.

J Mysterio

thebaz wrote: »

Experts are never wrong - The Doomsday scenario the world was warned has thankfully not played out - but believe what you want , cause I have seen what Fear has done to many - reading Boards last March it fealt the end of the world was coming - we are still here and thankfully going back to some normailty - but the impact of the FEAR will be huge - Depression/Anxiety/OCD issues but sweep that under the carpet - cause all that matters is Covid.

Nobody is 'sweeping that under the carpet'. That is a straw man.

thebaz

J Mysterio wrote: »

Nobody is 'sweeping that under the carpet'. That is a straw man.

Well less of the ****ing abuse - straw man -

faceman

thebaz wrote: »

The virus wil come back in winter combined with flu - could be a tough winter, but virus are a part of life , people have always died from season virus - bad flu's etc - but today we are expected to live forever in a germ free world - but how we are in a worse place than March has me baffled - people I think are copping on a bit and not believing the WHO Dr Tony doomsday over-saftyism mantra.

I think the challenge in winter will be that with a prevalence of regular colds and flus, everyone will be getting tested for C19 and we will all be paranoid that Mary and Joe next door have C19 when they just have a cold

bucketybuck

owlbethere wrote: »

I see it as a civil duty to stay at home and keep things low key. Keep myself safe, keep those around me safe and not set off a cluster in my community.

For the rest of your life?

owlbethere

bucketybuck wrote: »

For the rest of your life?

Where did I write forever or for the rest of my life in my post?

There's no harm in putting the head down and keeping things low key for a few months.

I have faith in the London vaccine. We will know more about that later in the summer when the trials end. I do think it will turn out to be successful and then it will be a waiting game for a few months from there. I have no problem hunkering down til next year until a vaccine is rolled out. There's plenty of stuff to do at home and locally, I don't feel bored or hard done by, by taking it easy for a few months.

irishgeo

Australia flu season is milder than other years because of social distancing and hand washing etc.
Perhaps people are staying at home when they are sick too.

bucketybuck

owlbethere wrote: »

Where did I write forever or for the rest of my life in my post?

There's no harm in putting the head down and keeping things low key for a few months.

You didn't say any length of time, thats why I asked. Its very easy to say "stay at home" when you don't need to answer the question of how long for.

Now you are saying it is both for a few months and until next year, each dependent on the fastest developed vaccine in history. That is your opinion and you are entitled to it. But what will you do if that vaccine doesn't arrive next year? Just how long are you prepared to put your life on hold?

Tig98

Shur aren't we slowly moving to the set up Sweden went for at the start of the lock down, majority of businesses open but implementing social distancing and mask wearing?

And that didn't turn out too well for them...

threeball

Tig98 wrote: »

Shur aren't we slowly moving to the set up Sweden went for at the start of the lock down, majority of businesses open but implementing social distancing and mask wearing?

And that didn't turn out too well for them...

Realistically its the only option, otherwise you'll have lockdowns rolling for years to come. The last 3 months should have given us time to improve contact tracing, shore up the hospitals and ppe and get people in the mindset to socially distance. If we haven't used that time well then thats on us.

phormium

I think we won't have as much flu spread this winter now that hand washing and coughing/sneezing etiquette is being done more. Hard to believe we didn't wash our hands half as often as we should have!

Screens in shops etc will protect workers from flu as much as anything, we might have nothing like a normal flu season with the new precautions hopefully.

thebaz

Tig98 wrote: »

Shur aren't we slowly moving to the set up Sweden went for at the start of the lock down, majority of businesses open but implementing social distancing and mask wearing?

And that didn't turn out too well for them...

Sweden did not turn into the disaster many predicted back in March - The virus exists, we have to live alongside it - People were predicting Mortality rates well over 1 % , and some at 10% back then - this is not case now - Life must go on , ther are many other dreadful virus and disease out ther , no one wants them , but they exist, the mental impact of this lockdown lifestyle will be be horrendous , never mind the economic impact- I lost all my work - and am unsure how I will pay my rent in a couple of months - I am more afraid now of being homeless than this virus.

faceman

thebaz wrote: »

Sweden did not turn into the disaster many predicted back in March - The virus exists, we have to live alongside it - People were predicting Mortality rates well over 1 % , and some at 10% back then - this is not case now - Life must go on , ther are many other dreadful virus and disease out ther , no one wants them , but they exist, the mental impact of this lockdown lifestyle will be be horrendous , never mind the economic impact- I lost all my work - and am unsure how I will pay my rent in a couple of months - I am more afraid now of being homeless than this virus.

To be fair, Sweden has been a disaster, something the government there has reluctantly admitted. Their approach didn’t work. The true toll won’t be seen for another 6 months/year.

thebaz

faceman wrote: »

To be fair, Sweden has been a disaster, something the government there has reluctantly admitted. Their approach didn’t work. The true toll won’t be seen for another 6 months/year.

People and experts were aticiptaing a much higher death rate than it is today - think it is about 5,200 deaths today - but they will have avoided a lot of secondary deaths from other illness - as I have said no one wants a virus or any deaths , but it exists - the social damage done to a generation of school kids who will have missed out nearly a year of school here will be massive - the economic damage to me is more worrying , with a very realistic fear of becomong homeles.. Thats it.

fly_agaric

thebaz wrote: »

the social damage done to a generation of school kids who will have missed out nearly a year of school here will be massive - the economic damage to me is more worrying , with a very realistic fear of becomong homeles.. Thats it.

They missed out on 3-4 months given our short school year. Bad I admit, but not a full year.
The "lockdown" incl. school closures was worth it so we didn't overwhelm the fairly mediocre health service here/cause more unnecessary death.

Would actually think getting all levels of the education system up and running properly again by Sept. is far more important than some of the economic stuff the media/others give an awful lot of time to (e.g. international leisure travel and tourism, ramming drinkers into the pubs again for their pints etc.)

firemansam4

fly_agaric wrote:

Would actually think getting all levels of the education system up and running properly again by Sept. is far more important than some of the economic stuff the media/others give an awful lot of time to (international leisure travel and tourism, ramming drinkers into the pubs again for their pints etc.)

Pubs should not be opening for a long time, it is not needed.
Yes very harsh for publicans who are loosing their livelyhoods, but for the most part there is no need to reopen pubs, we can all do without it for longer. (This is comming from someone who enjoys going out for a few drinks every now and again)
If there is a 2nd wave then opening pubs would be a large contributing factor IMO.

owlbethere

bucketybuck wrote: »

You didn't say any length of time, thats why I asked. Its very easy to say "stay at home" when you don't need to answer the question of how long for.

Now you are saying it is both for a few months and until next year, each dependent on the fastest developed vaccine in history. That is your opinion and you are entitled to it. But what will you do if that vaccine doesn't arrive next year? Just how long are you prepared to put your life on hold?

A few months will bring us to Christmas time and we will have a better understanding of the virus, treatments and any potential vaccines. Once Christmas and New year ends, we are into a new year and a new spring come February. It really isn't all that hard to wait it out for a vaccine.

I have confidence in the London vaccine. It was developed in relation to MERS that emerged in 2012. That MERS vaccine was already gone into trials. All they had to do was tweak the vaccine to this coronavirus. They now gone into phase 3 of the trail and production has started of the vaccine. I don't think they would have gone into phase 3 of the trails if phase 1 and 2 were a flop.

For me, the biggest risk is travelling and crowed spaces. I grew up without yearly holidays and I have no problem waiting it out for a year or even two if that's what it takes until a vaccine comes about.