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The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

ShineOn7

Let’s round up the Republic’s population to 5 million, it’s only 100,000 shy of this number

The amount of people expected to get it (whether they show symptoms or not) is anything from 30% to 70%, depending on the source you read. Huge differences there but let’s say 50% because it’s somewhere in between

That’s 2.5 million who’ll get it (remember; not all will show symptoms)

Reported mortality rates on this have been 0.5 to 2%. It’s just too early to tell

Let’s be optimistic and say 1%

1% of 2.5 million is 25,000 Irish fatalities in the Republic

This is more than double how many the HSE worker doing the Ask Me Anything thinks in his Best Case Scenario. He mentioned 10,000 people in this instance

So hopefully he’s actually right in this case and it’s “only” 10,000

For this to happen;

- The amount of carriers of this will have to be much lower than 50%, and

- mortality rate would need to be closer to 0.5%

How does 10,000 compare to a normal 12 months in Ireland when you combine the pneumonia and flu fatalities?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

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Pete_Cavan

Is there any reason for our regular denotification of deaths? Looking at The reported Island of Ireland numbers thread stickied here, we seem to have around 90 denotifications since 21 April, when we already had over 700 deaths. That would indicate we have denotified almost 10% of deaths since then. Seems like a significant proportion. Is there an official reason of so many denotifications?

I know they were announcing probable covid deaths early on but then stopped, were the just lumped in with the confirmed deaths thereafter and then denotified if later proven to be negative? Surely a more accurate way of doing it would be to hold off counting a death until Covid-19 has been confirmed?

Seweryn

So, we have the official records from our most deadly month in records. Let's have a look at them.

You are welcome to prove me wrong or inaccurate. Here are the numbers:

CV Deaths end of March: 71
CV Deaths end of April: 1231
Total CV Deaths in April: 1160

Total number of deaths in April of 2018, 2019 and 2020:
April 2018: 2,613
April 2019: 2,456
April 2020: 2,787

Population in 2018: 4,818,690
Population in 2019: 4,882,495
Population in 2020: 4,947,145 (estimated)

Deaths per million:
April 2018: 542
April 2019: 503
April 2020: 563

Average deaths per million for 2018 - 2019 (for the month of April): 522
An increase in deaths per million for April 2020: 7.85% (similar difference to 2018 / 2019, so within norm).

Here is the interesting bit:

All deaths excluding CV:

April 2018: 2,613
April 2019: 2,454
April 2020: 1,627

Deaths per million excluding deaths by CV:

April 2018: 542
April 2019: 503
April 2020: 329

Average deaths per million for 2018 - 2019 (April): 522
An increase in deaths per million for April 2020: -37% (minus thirty seven %).

Do they tell that in your television? Because I stopped watching it a long time ago. And if so, what is their message about April?

Beasty

Threads merged

Martin567

The figures above are extraordinary.

Is it possible that there are a lot of unregistered deaths for April? If these numbers are accurate for the total number who died in April, it really makes a mockery of the entire thing.

thelad95

The reason there is little to no excess mortality is because of the restrictions, how is this so hard for people to understand???

Seweryn

Martin567 wrote: »

The figures above are extraordinary.

Is it possible that there are a lot of unregistered deaths for April? If these numbers are accurate for the total number who died in April, it really makes a mockery of the entire thing.

Hi Martin,

The CV deaths are updated every day, so I believe my numbers are accurate.
However, I had a quick check other sources, so there may be say extra 100 deaths on top of that for April, so not much at all and still within normal range of death rates.

But the question remains - where are the extra 1160 deaths for April?

Seweryn

thelad95 wrote: »

The reason there is little to no excess mortality is because of the restrictions, how is this so hard for people to understand???

So you are saying that because of the so called lockdown we managed to bring our normal death rates by... 40 - 50 %

is_that_so

Seweryn wrote: »

Hi Martin,

The CV deaths are updated every day, so I believe my numbers are accurate.
However, I had a quick check other sources, so there may be say extra 100 deaths on top of that for April, so not much at all and still within normal range of death rates.

But the question remains - where are the extra 1160 deaths for April?

Deaths can take up to 3 months to be reported and that daily total is reported not necessarily actual.

Seweryn

is_that_so wrote: »

Deaths can take up to 3 months to be reported and that daily total is reported not necessarily actual.

OK, almost two months are now passed. Let's wait and see if the extra deaths will appear.

is_that_so

Seweryn wrote: »

OK, almost two months are now passed. Let's wait and see if the extra deaths will appear.

That data should all all be in by now as DoH have been asking them to do it faster. I think they are doing their own work on excess deaths at the DoH. CMO has mentioned it once or twice but I believe they are looking at up to 5 years of data.

Martin567

thelad95 wrote: »

The reason there is little to no excess mortality is because of the restrictions, how is this so hard for people to understand???

That makes absolutely no sense whatever.

According to these figures, there would need to have been a further 251 deaths in April just to match the same month in 2018. At the same time it is claimed that 1,160 people died from Covid 19 in April. Both of these things can't be true.

It is impossible to compare numbers across the world as every country seems to be compiling them differently. Some people have said that Ireland has fared far worse than countries like Czech Republic and Slovakia based on the numbers. The numbers posted by Seweryn above contradict this.

How likely is it that in the very month when so many people in Ireland apparently died of Covid 19, that the number of people who died of all other causes seems to have halved? These numbers make it appear as though many deaths were counted as being Covid deaths even though the people would sadly have died anyway.

Bit cynical

Seweryn wrote: »

So you are saying that because of the so called lockdown we managed to bring our normal death rates by... 40 - 50 % .

If so, we should continue with the lockdown even after the virus is gone because lockdowns save lives and lives are more important than the economy or personal freedom.

DarHan84

Seweryn wrote: »

So, we have the official records from our most deadly month in records. Let's have a look at them.

You are welcome to prove me wrong or inaccurate. Here are the numbers:

CV Deaths end of March: 71
CV Deaths end of April: 1231
Total CV Deaths in April: 1160

Total number of deaths in April of 2018, 2019 and 2020:
April 2018: 2,940
April 2019: 2,599
April 2020: 2,689

Population in 2018: 4,818,690
Population in 2019: 4,882,495
Population in 2020: 4,947,145 (estimated)

Deaths per million:
April 2018: 610
April 2019: 532
April 2020: 543

Average deaths per million for 2018 - 2019 (for the month of April): 570
An increase in deaths per million for April 2020: -5% (minus five %).

Here is the interesting bit:

All deaths excluding CV:

April 2018: 2,940
April 2019: 2,599
April 2020: 1,529

Deaths per million excluding deaths by CV:

April 2018: 610
April 2019: 532
April 2020: 309

Average deaths per million for 2018 - 2019 (April): 570
An increase in deaths per million for April 2020: -46% (minus forty six %).

Do they tell that in your television? Because I stopped watching it a long time ago. And if so, what is their message about April?

Source is Gript, which doesn't then give any source, but just puts unattributed quotes which don't appear anywhere else but on this thread...

Article is called "Ireland’s death rate in April is lower than two years ago" but all quotes are unattributed.

Fake news?
https://gript.ie/irelands-death-rate-in-april-is-lower-than-two-years-ago/

drunkmonkey

I'd believe it, it's the wake up call hospitals needed. Hygiene was not one of their strong points.

Seweryn

DarHan84 wrote: »

Source is Gript, which doesn't then give any source, but just puts unattributed quotes which don't appear anywhere else but on this thread...

Article is called "Ireland’s death rate in April is lower than two years ago" but all quotes are unattributed.

Fake news?
https://gript.ie/irelands-death-rate-in-april-is-lower-than-two-years-ago/

I have updated my post now. Numbers are based on the General Registrars Office statistics.

ShineOn7

DarHan84 wrote: »

Fake news?
https://gript.ie/irelands-death-rate-in-april-is-lower-than-two-years-ago/

From what I've gathered, Gript aren't a great source for things

Blut2

Those figures are absolutely shocking. It really just shows how the vast majority of deaths occurring from covid are people in their 80s who would have died anyway. And how pointless the utter destruction of our economy has been...

bb1234567

Seweryn wrote: »

I have updated my post now. Numbers are based on the General Registrars Office statistics.

Can you link please? Not being snarky I just actually cannot find them online.
The only source I've heard mention these figures is gript and not a single piece of the information in the article is cited, which is suspicious to say the least.

Shelga

Blut2 wrote: »

Those figures are absolutely shocking. It really just shows how the vast majority of deaths occurring from covid are people in their 80s who would have died anyway. And how pointless the utter destruction of our economy has been...

Wow, who cares about people in their 80s, right? Someone who's 80 could easily live another 10-15 years. You sound like a lovely person. Whose granny do you choose to sacrifice?

Martin567

Shelga wrote: »

Wow, who cares about people in their 80s, right? Someone who's 80 could easily live another 10-15 years. You sound like a lovely person. Whose granny do you choose to sacrifice?

You're completely missing the point of those numbers, assuming they are correct.

If the total number of deaths for April is no different to any other year, then the overwhelming majority of those people listed as Covid deaths in the month would have died in April even if this virus had never appeared. They wouldn't have had another 10-15 years.

DarHan84

Seweryn wrote: »

I have updated my post now. Numbers are based on the General Registrars Office statistics.

There is no publication from the GRO though, the only place writing this is Gript, and they provide no links or quotes.

What's to be gained from posting false information?

You might not watch TV, but I'd suggest reading legitimate websites if you want information.

bb1234567

Martin567 wrote: »

You're completely missing the point of those numbers, assuming they are correct.

If the total number of deaths for April is no different to any other year, then the overwhelming majority of those people listed as Covid deaths in the month would have died in April even if this virus had never appeared. They wouldn't have had another 10-15 years.

This part is pretty crucial element of the argument though, and has not been verified. Until it is verified the discussion is completely pointless.

Seweryn

bb1234567 wrote: »

Can you link please? Not being snarky I just actually cannot find them online.
The only source I've heard mention these figures is gript and not a single piece of the information in the article is cited, which is suspicious to say the least.

No problem.

The updated numbers were received by email from the reg. office.

bb1234567

Seweryn wrote: »

No problem.

The updated numbers were received by email from the reg. office.

Do they email them to anybody who requests? Why havn't they been published?

Blut2

Shelga wrote: »

Wow, who cares about people in their 80s, right? Someone who's 80 could easily live another 10-15 years. You sound like a lovely person. Whose granny do you choose to sacrifice?

As other posters have indicated, if the total number of deaths for this year is completely in-line with normal years then anyone who died from corona would have died anyway - likely from 'normal' flu, or pneumonia, or anything else.

But, if anything, we're going to see much more suffering long term from this lockdown - the estimate is that 3 months of no cancer screening will result in 2000 additional cancer deaths in Ireland over the next 5 years, of people who would not have died otherwise. And who are much, much younger than 80.

Plus the lives lost to the economic damage - suicides always shoot up in any recession. and again, lives of people much much younger than 80.

Based on those figures for April the lockdown will end up costing far more lives in the long term than it saved.

Seweryn

bb1234567 wrote: »

Do they email them to anybody who requests? Why havn't they been published?

Well, I guess they issue the numbers if you ask them, but I don't know why they don't publish them. Or I may know, but that is my own view, I have no official reason for this.

Seweryn

Blut2 wrote: »

Based on those figures for April the lockdown will end up costing far more lives in the long term than it saved.

Oh, far, far more...

Just take the deaths from hunger - about 9 million (or more) per year globally. This number can double this year due to the economic downturn. That will be a massive spike.
Then the issue with suicides and depression. I am afraid in some countries they may put these deaths as a result of Mr. CV.

bb1234567

Blut2 wrote: »

As other posters have indicated, if the total number of deaths for this year is completely in-line with normal years then anyone who died from corona would have died anyway - likely from 'normal' flu, or pneumonia, or anything else.

But, if anything, we're going to see much more suffering long term from this lockdown - the estimate is that 3 months of no cancer screening will result in 2000 additional cancer deaths in Ireland over the next 5 years, of people who would not have died otherwise. And who are much, much younger than 80.

Plus the lives lost to the economic damage - suicides always shoot up in any recession. and again, lives of people much much younger than 80.

Based on those figures for April the lockdown will end up costing far more lives in the long term than it saved.

Your post is exaggerating certain points, Ireland's covid deaths are skewed as there was a very large nursing home outbreak and a much smaller outbreak in the communtiy. In places where there is less controlled community spread, such as USA, the deaths are much less skewed towards such an old age, obviously.

70% of cancer deaths in the USA are over 65
http://www.mycarg.org/advocacy/advocacy_cancer_aging_facts

In the USA 80% of covid deaths have been over 65
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities

So cancer deaths are not 'much much younger' than covid deaths, in fact they are very comparable. Death among young people is just extremely rare, no matter what illness or ailment you are talking about. Young healthy people under 65 should not be any more worried about dying of cancer than they should be of dying from COVID.

DarHan84

Seweryn wrote: »

Well, I guess they issue the numbers if you ask them, but I don't know why they don't publish them. Or I may know, but that is my own view, I have no official reason for this.

So you're expecting us to believe on the face of things, some "stats" you've shared which were emailed to you by the GSO but they haven't published...

If only there were a way of attaching an image to your post to verify your claims. Should be easy enough to show the email address you received this email from, and what they said.

Seweryn

I have updated the figures and now added 2017 into equation.

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