charlie14 wrote: » What is also unknowable is that in 5 years time there may be a major breakthrough in cancer research so what do you propose we compare then? Road death due to lockdown and no lockdown. What is knowable in the here and now is : 1. Sweden`s deaths from Covid-19 2. Sweden has the 5th highest deaths per head of population in Europe from Covid-19 3. Sweden`s own Central Bank, their Institute for Economic Research, the I.M.F and the O.E.C.D. all see their GDP doing no better than any other European country. 4. Sweden`s supposed primary strategy of protecting the aged and vulnerable has been a failure. 5. Sweden`s total deaths for the first 5 months of 2020 have exceeded the 6 month average for 2019. 6. If as many suspect that Sweden`s primary strategy was herd immunity, Sweden`sown antibody test results show it was "A dream with very little basis in reality" I do not know what you are getting from your Mystic Meg crystal ball readings, but it seems it has yet to show you anything relating to Sweden`strategy as being a success.
Deleted User wrote: » It's strange that as soon as the data changes, suddenly so to do the arguments of those who have been defending Sweden's strategy since the beginning - with no acknowledgement of said posters that their previous arguments were incorrect. No 'mea culpa' moments, no evidence whatsoever of reflection on new information - just incessantly changing their arguments as soon as the previous ones are knocked down. I can't remember what that's called.... oh right, it's moving the goalposts.
cnocbui wrote: » Lets say that 5 years from now, there is considerable spike in cancer deaths in this country because of a lack of screening and early treatment. What will you say then? Such things are quite likely but are unknowable at this point in time. It simply is not possible to say what the final outcomes of the various strategies will be at this point of time while situations are still evolving. Only hindsight can confer the requisite clarity of vision. I don't know what you are getting, gnawing on this fossilized dinosaur femur, but it sure isn't marrow.
charlie14 wrote: » Their GDP is projected to do no better than any other European country for 2020 by both their own central bank, Sveriges Riksbank, and their National Institute of Economic Research. Worse than some. Sweden is now the 5th. highest of the 44 countries in Europe for Covid-19 deaths per population and their total deaths for the first 5 months of 2020 have exceeded the half year total for 2019. Where in any of that there is any indication that Sweden`s strategy has,or will be successful ?
daithi7 wrote: » You can only even begin to assess Sweden's strategy by looking at total excess deaths (not just covid ones) versus other countries. You also need to compare things like relative contractions in GDP, increases in unemployment and in the extra debt required during the Corona virus measures months. I have yet to see such an assessment of Sweden versus other countries done to any degree of accuracy. But I've seen a load of simplistic analysis on here pointing to their higher death rates due to Covid and incorrectly concluding that their strategy has not been successful. So, if their total excess deaths/ capita over this period are lower than other similar countries, and this is achieved with smaller contractions to GDP, lower unemployment &/or taking on less net debt, then their strategy will have been successful. This has yet to be fully ascertained afaik.
dubrov wrote: » I was referring to the second one. Like it or not, economic prosperity is strongly correlated with quality and longevity of life. They will be in recession this year alright but it won't be a patch on what we will experience.
Bit cynical wrote: » Bloomberg: ‘Striking’ Crisis Gap Exposed as Swedish Economy Stands Out "In a report on Monday, Capital Economics presented data that give Sweden an irrefutable edge. From peak to trough, Swedish GDP will shrink 8%; in the U.K. and Italy, the contraction is somewhere between 25% and 30%, according to estimates covering the fourth quarter of 2019 through to the second quarter of 2020. The U.S. is somewhere in the middle, it said." URL="https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/one-economy-stands-out-as-crisis-reveals-striking-differences"]Source[/URL I think this is what people miss: you can focus entirely on deaths from this one cause and shut down everything, but the health service depends on a working economy. Without a funded health service you are going to get deaths elsewhere.
charlie14 wrote: » How would b) (=> Sweden strategy being right ? If it was to protect the aged and vulnerable, which they claimed, it has not worked. If it was for economic reasons they are going to be no better than anyone else. If it was for herd immunity, then their own antibody test results show it has not worked.
dubrov wrote: » Either a) This thing dies out naturally over the summer (=>Sweden strategy was wrong) or b) It comes flooding back as soon as the controls are relaxed (=>Sweden strategy was right). Vaccines are years away and risky if rushed. a) is looking more likely at the moment but we are a long way from certainty
dubrov wrote: » That's not what the article says. It says it is too early to call which is pretty fair.
biko wrote: » Don't worry. According to the Swedish Social Democratic government their strategy is still a success.https://time.com/5853595/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-criticism/
is_that_so wrote: » They could hardly throw their hands up now and say it was a disaster. It was their strategy all along, even if the rest of the world would not choose to follow it.
JimmyVik wrote: » Has anyone told the Swedes that higher is bad? It looks like they are under the ipression higher is good. Just wondering.
Charles Babbage wrote: » So far about 9% of recorded cases in Sweden have died. They report 940 cases today. Now the fatality rate is probably improving, and they may be testing more, but even if it halves that means 50 deaths in a few weeks time. Finland, Norway and Denmark together only reported about 40 cases yesterday. They'll not be opening their border with Sweden anytime soon.
Lofven said that “it’s too early to draw any definitive conclusions about the success of our strategy,” despite the high death rate. The number of Covid-related deaths now totals 4,874 in Sweden, dwarfing the 597 registered in neighboring Denmark and 242 in Norway. According to Lofven, Sweden’s excess mortality rate “is normal for the time of year.”
daithi7 wrote: » Ireland may have eased lockdown but I see the national screening program for the most deadly cancers is still suspended, like seriously wtf!? So in summary we're still sacrificing people's lives who have detectable cancers that won't be detected on the altar of treating Covid.... ehhh except Covid is all but past tense, with hardly any cases needing treatment for weeks, and far more people are likely to die of these otherwise detectable cancers........go figure hey!? (https://www.screeningservice.ie/ Coronavirus and screening programmes The National Screening Service (NSS) screening programmes have been paused until further notice. This move was taken on public health advice due to the situation with Covid-19. The restarting of screening will be based on HSE and Department of Health guidance, as measures to prevent Covid-19 are amended by Government. Screening programmes affected The screening programmes that have been paused are: BreastCheck (mammograms) CervicalCheck (cervical tests) BowelScreen (home test kits and colonoscopy appointments in hospitals) Diabetic Retinopathy (eye) screening and routine treatments in hospitals Reasons for pausing screening Screening has been paused in order to: protect patients and staff by complying with social distancing guidelines minimise the impact on essential HSE services as we respond to COVID-19 enable the HSE to redirect NSS staff and resources to the response to COVID-19......
cnocbui wrote: » Would you like a tissue? A scented candle?
charlie14 wrote: » The regard and empathy you feel for your fellow human beings really does come across very clearly in your post. .
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