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The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

ShineOn7

Let’s round up the Republic’s population to 5 million, it’s only 100,000 shy of this number

The amount of people expected to get it (whether they show symptoms or not) is anything from 30% to 70%, depending on the source you read. Huge differences there but let’s say 50% because it’s somewhere in between

That’s 2.5 million who’ll get it (remember; not all will show symptoms)

Reported mortality rates on this have been 0.5 to 2%. It’s just too early to tell

Let’s be optimistic and say 1%

1% of 2.5 million is 25,000 Irish fatalities in the Republic

This is more than double how many the HSE worker doing the Ask Me Anything thinks in his Best Case Scenario. He mentioned 10,000 people in this instance

So hopefully he’s actually right in this case and it’s “only” 10,000

For this to happen;

- The amount of carriers of this will have to be much lower than 50%, and

- mortality rate would need to be closer to 0.5%

How does 10,000 compare to a normal 12 months in Ireland when you combine the pneumonia and flu fatalities?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

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wakka12

Just 5% of the Spanish population overall have antibodies. Would put mortality rate at 1.16%

So it is likely that less than 3% of the Irish population has antibodies

niallo27

wakka12 wrote: »

Just 5% of the Spanish population overall have antibodies. Would put mortality rate at 1.16%

So it is likely that less than 3% of the Irish population has antibodies

If 70% of the population in Spain get it that would put deaths at 381k

yosemitesam1

wakka12 wrote: »

Just 5% of the Spanish population overall have antibodies. Would put mortality rate at 1.16%

So it is likely that less than 3% of the Irish population has antibodies

Have you a link to the study?

wakka12

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Have you a link to the study?

https://www.physiciansweekly.com/spanish-antibody-study-points/

And Niall I'm sure that figure could be limited a lot through cocooning of the elderly and vulnerable as Sweden is trying to do

ShineOn7

From the Reddit user who combines Gov.ie data and transcribes the daily briefings. Full credit to Laura

Loads of data today

_______________________

New Cases: 159
Total Cases: 23401
New Death: 10
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1497

Deaths

Deaths: 1497
Hospitalised + died in hospital: 609 > 41%
Died in ICU: 73 > 4.9%
Underlying conditions: 1290 > 86.0%
Median age: 84
Mean age: 82

THERE HASN'T BEEN A SINGLE DAY WHERE WE HAVEN'T HAD A COVID RELATED DEATH. GREATEST NUMBER OF DEATHS WAS AROUND 57-58 DEATHS ON APRIL 12TH
As of Monday 11th May

Cases: 23144
Hospitalised: 3050 13.20%
Total In ICU: 389 1.70%
Median Age: 48
Healthcare workers: 6997 > Increase of 91 30.20%

Of 390 in ICU

Currently in ICU: 64
New admissions within last 24 hours: 1

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

Clusters: 432 > Increase of: 4
Total Cases: 5967 > Increase of: 34
Total Deaths: 941 63% of total deaths
Place of death 171 occurred in acute hospital environment.
Hospitalisation: 448 7.50%

Nursing Homes

Clusters: 245 > Increase of: 0
Total Cases: 4641 > Increase of: 17
Total Deaths: 818
Place of death: 143 occurred in acute hospital environment.
Hospitalisation: 318

Breakdown of Underlying Conditions
Of 15450 cases, breakdown of underlying conditions:

7297 didn't have an underlying
3625 had one underlying
1891 had two underlying
847 had three underlying conditions
507 has four or more underling conditions

Recoveries

In community: 17877 > 77.40%
Discharged from hospital: 1593 > 6.90%
Total: 19470 > 84.30%

ShineOn7

This part didn't paste across well, but you should be able to work it out

Overlap between some of these - person with diabetes may have a BMI >40

Disease # of Cases ICU Admissions Deaths

Chronic Heart Disease 2324 189 470

Chronic Respiratory Disease 1634 93 191

Diabetes 964 91 154

Chronic Conditions 928 12 342

Cancer 587 43 149

BMI > 40 221 63 19

ShineOn7

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1260617400073977856

ShineOn7

Just 55 cases yesterday (Wednesday) according to this?

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1260634391304437761

ShineOn7

Weekly number of Irish cases falling

April 6th to 12th - 4661 new cases
April 13th to 19th - 5596
April 20th to 26th - 4011
April 27th to May 3rd - 2244
May 4th to 10th - 1494

Now if only we could keep the restrictions up a couple of more months. I fear for getting early April type numbers once they start lifting

ShineOn7

Wakka posted this elsewhere. Someone on Reddit calculated the mortality rate for all parts of Spain. Lower rates in the busiest areas/cities = some herd immunity kicking in?

Nombre Deaths IFR

Madrid 8760 1.2%

Barcelona 5692 1.4%

Ciudad Real 1042 1.9%

Toledo 744 1.2%

Valencia-València 668 1.1%

Zaragoza 647 1.3%

Albacete 500 1.1%

Navarra 494 1.3%

Alicante-Alacant 467 0.9%

León 400 1.2%

Cáceres 397 2.7%

Araba/Álava 355 1.5%

Salamanca 353 1.4%

Valladolid 352 1.1%

La Rioja 348 3.3%

Asturias 307 1.7%

Cuenca 302 1.1%

A Coruña 296 1.5%

Gipuzkoa 281 1.4%

Granada 274 1.2%

Sevilla 273 0.6%

Málaga 272 0.4%

Guadalajara 247 0.9%

Burgos 205 1.1%

Cantabria 205 1.1%

Castellón-Castelló 205 1.3%

Segovia 200 1.0%

Danno

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Weekly number of Irish cases falling

April 6th to 12th - 4661 new cases
April 13th to 19th - 5596
April 20th to 26th - 4011
April 27th to May 3rd - 2244
May 4th to 10th - 1494

Now if only we could keep the restrictions up a couple of more months. I fear for getting early April type numbers once they start lifting

Until what? Then one person with the virus comes in on a plane or a boat bringing us back to square one - you know, just like how this whole thing kicked off here.

We (the Irish pubic) have made an enormous sacrifice to get the virus to the brink of eradication. If this virus explodes again due to mismanagement of the borders then there will be hell to pay.

Blut2

Danno wrote: »

Until what? Then one person with the virus comes in on a plane or a boat bringing us back to square one - you know, just like how this whole thing kicked off here.

We (the Irish pubic) have made an enormous sacrifice to get the virus to the brink of eradication. If this virus explodes again due to mismanagement of the borders then there will be hell to pay.

And how do you propose to control the extremely porous land border with NI?

The point of the lockdown was to buy the health service time to expand capacity, not to "beat" the virus. We could stay in full lockdown for 6 months, get the cases down to 0, and Ireland would still be guaranteed to be reinfected within a month from either NI or elsewhere.

Polar101

Has there been any antibody study where they also did a breakdown of the ages of the people they tested? That would be a useful way to see if children are less infected, for example. Would be interesting to do a sample where everyone in a big school was tested for antibodies.

ShineOn7

Polar101 wrote: »

Has there been any antibody study where they also did a breakdown of the ages of the people they tested? That would be a useful way to see if children are less infected, for example. Would be interesting to do a sample where everyone in a big school was tested for antibodies.

Aren't both the UK and Irish governments reporting that children are less infectious to others than previously thought? I'm nearly sure i heard this on the radio this week

Mind you, that could just be media spin by them to now justify kids going back to school

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Aren't both the UK and Irish governments reporting that children are less infectious to others than previously thought? I'm nearly sure i heard this on the radio this week

Mind you, that could just be media spin by them to now justify kids going back to school

If it was just media Spin by UK and IRE, why then are schools across Europe all back an/or are going back?

Schools in Denmark have been back since the middle of April.

Schools in Iceland never closed.

Neither have caused a spike in cases....

If you don't have schools you are not a functioning country

ShineOn7

From Reddit/Gov.ie

Ignore the shouty capitals, it's a direct copy and paste

__________________________________

THE REPORTING OF A LARGE NUMBER OF CASES TODAY IS DUE TO ONE LARGE REPORTING OF CASES, OVER TIME, IN A HOSPITAL. THESE NUMBERS GO BACK TO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. WHEN THESE CASES WERE BACKDATED TO WHEN THE RESULT CAME IN, THERE WERE NO MORE THAN 7 CASES REPORTED PER DAY

New Cases: 426
Total Cases: 23827
New Death: 10
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1506

DEATHS

Deaths: 1506
Hospitalised + died in hospital: 615 41%
Died in ICU: 75 5%
Underlying conditions: 1305 87%
Median age: 84
Mean age: 82

As of Tuesday 12th May

Cases: 23259
Hospitalised: 3053 13.10%
Total In ICU: 387 1.70%
Median Age: 48
Healthcare workers: 7123 > Increase of 126 30.60%

Of 388 in ICU

Remain in ICU: 58

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

Clusters: 438 > Increase of 6
Total Cases: 5983 > Increase of 26
Total Deaths: 948 63.00%
Hospitalised: 450 7.50%

Nursing Homes

Clusters: 250 > Increase of 5
Total Cases: 4655 > Increase of 14
Total Deaths: 823 55.00%
Hospitalised: 318 5.30%

Healthcare Workers - data from Saturday just gone

Cases: 6890
Deaths: 7 0.1%
Hospitalised: 252 4%
ICU: 41 1%
Median age: 41
Female: 73%
Male: 27%

Modelling

All population indicators of the virus in the country have been decreasing over a number of weeks
This weeks estimate of the reproductive number tells us what we were like last week
Reproductive number now in the range of 0.4-0.6
How people behave will be very important to prevent a second wave
Over past number of weeks, two things matter at the rate the disease spreads - the reproductive number, and the number of people with the infection in the population
Important to look at the number of new infections per capita per day - this is the "forced" number

Date # New Cases per Day # of People in Hospital # Daily Hospital Admissions # of People in ICU # of ICU Admissions # of Daily Deaths
16th April ~ 600 865 50-60 140 8-10 33
6th May 300 680 22 100 3 21
13th May 172 526 17 69 1-2 13
Today N/a 459 N/A 58

Danno

Blut2 wrote: »

And how do you propose to control the extremely porous land border with NI?

We can't, which is why I think we're on a fool's errand by going the eradication route.

Blut2 wrote: »

The point of the lockdown was to buy the health service time to expand capacity, not to "beat" the virus. We could stay in full lockdown for 6 months, get the cases down to 0, and Ireland would still be guaranteed to be reinfected within a month from either NI or elsewhere.

Exactly, but it is to me on the face of it that the task set by Holohan is to rid Ireland of the virus, a fool's errand, unless he's very confident of a vaccine by mid-August going by his roadmap of re-opening.

is_that_so

Danno wrote: »

We can't, which is why I think we're on a fool's errand by going the eradication route.

Exactly, but it is to me on the face of it that the task set by Holohan is to rid Ireland of the virus, a fool's errand, unless he's very confident of a vaccine by mid-August going by his roadmap of re-opening.

He's never said eradicate, he uses words like behave and manage. They recognise it may still be around for some time.

foundation10

It appears that the bulk of new cases reported yesterday were a one off reporting done by the Mater Hospital and some of these cases date back to March:eek:. Surely someone in there knew that they needed to report more regularly than one off reporting.

Voltex

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From Reddit/Gov.ie

Ignore the shouty capitals, it's a direct copy and paste

__________________________________

THE REPORTING OF A LARGE NUMBER OF CASES TODAY IS DUE TO ONE LARGE REPORTING OF CASES, OVER TIME, IN A HOSPITAL. THESE NUMBERS GO BACK TO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. WHEN THESE CASES WERE BACKDATED TO WHEN THE RESULT CAME IN, THERE WERE NO MORE THAN 7 CASES REPORTED PER DAY

New Cases: 426
Total Cases: 23827
New Death: 10
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1506

DEATHS
Deaths: 1506

Hospitalised + died in hospital: 615 41%

Died in ICU: 75 5%

Underlying conditions: 1305 87%

Median age: 84

Mean age: 82

As of Tuesday 12th May
Cases: 23259

Hospitalised: 3053 13.10%

Total In ICU: 387 1.70%

Median Age: 48

Healthcare workers: 7123 > Increase of 126 30.60%

Of 388 in ICU
Remain in ICU: 58

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)
Clusters: 438 > Increase of 6

Total Cases: 5983 > Increase of 26

Total Deaths: 948 63.00%

Hospitalised: 450 7.50%

Nursing Homes
Clusters: 250 > Increase of 5

Total Cases: 4655 > Increase of 14

Total Deaths: 823 55.00%

Hospitalised: 318 5.30%

Healthcare Workers - data from Saturday just gone
Cases: 6890

Deaths: 7 0.1%

Hospitalised: 252 4%

ICU: 41 1%

Median age: 41

Female: 73%

Male: 27%

Modelling
All population indicators of the virus in the country have been decreasing over a number of weeks

This weeks estimate of the reproductive number tells us what we were like last week

Reproductive number now in the range of 0.4-0.6

How people behave will be very important to prevent a second wave

Over past number of weeks, two things matter at the rate the disease spreads - the reproductive number, and the number of people with the infection in the population

Important to look at the number of new infections per capita per day - this is the "forced" number

Date # New Cases per Day # of People in Hospital # Daily Hospital Admissions # of People in ICU # of ICU Admissions # of Daily Deaths
16th April ~ 600 865 50-60 140 8-10 33
6th May 300 680 22 100 3 21
13th May 172 526 17 69 1-2 13
Today N/a 459 N/A 58

Am I reading this correctly - 87% of deaths had an underlying illness?
(btw - the 87% is exactly the same as the UK's value)

I know its a crude calculation, but of the 93 <65s who have died, if 87% had an underlying illness, that means only 13 fit and healthy under 65s have died!

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20NPHET%20Epi%20Report%2020200514%20%E2%80%93%20Web.pdf

I know people are going to say the lockdown prevented more deaths. Say we didnt lockdown and it was 10 times worse - we're then into the territory of the number of people who drown in Ireland on average each year.

Then look at health care workers, who could be representative the working age population. Tragically we have lost 7 health care workers to C19 out of 7123 infected. Thats an IFR of 0.09%. According to an actuarial table, under normal circumstances, given my age, health profile and zero partiality to extreme sports, I have a 0.2% of dying this year..but I have approximately 0.02% chance of dying from C19....and thats being conservative.

Does the average fit and healthy person actually understand the relative risks of C19?

McGiver

Should the process collapse, however, Fine Gael will be equally well set. With its governing reputation restored by its management of the Covid-19 pandemic, it would be poised to storm back in a general election campaign...

Irish Times today. Do I live in another reality? This is a pathetic journalism, they don't bother to compare countries based on cases per capita, deaths per capita, comparing their advantages they had (you know like being a flipping island!), or how severe and costly lockdown they did, and how well they fared with measures. Can't the journalists see beyond Wales and England FFS?

Irish government result is mediocre at best. They can ever we be considered good only by looking at the worst infested countries - UK, Spain, Italy and Belgium.

Death rate is in lower bottom of the league, in line with Sweden and the Netherlands who did no lockdown whatsoever!

Blut2

Voltex wrote: »

Am I reading this correctly - 87% of deaths had an underlying illness?
(btw - the 87% is exactly the same as the UK's value)

I know its a crude calculation, but of the 93 <65s who have died, if 87% had an underlying illness, that means only 13 fit and healthy under 65s have died!

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20NPHET%20Epi%20Report%2020200514%20%E2%80%93%20Web.pdf

I know people are going to say the lockdown prevented more deaths. Say we didnt lockdown and it was 10 times worse - we're then into the territory of the number of people who drown in Ireland on average each year.

Then look at health care workers, who could be representative the working age population. Tragically we have lost 7 health care workers to C19 out of 7123 infected. Thats an IFR of 0.09%. According to an actuarial table, under normal circumstances, given my age, health profile and zero partiality to extreme sports, I have a 0.2% of dying this year..but I have approximately 0.02% chance of dying from C19....and thats being conservative.

Does the average fit and healthy person actually understand the relative risks of C19?

Its been pretty obvious for a month or so now from the data coming out of every country that if you're under 60, not obese, and have no underlying serious health condition (diabetes/cancer etc) then statistically C19 is no more dangerous than the 'normal' flu - ie, not dangerous at all in the grand scheme of things.

Don't get me wrong - its absolutely dangerous if you're 70+. But the statistics show its just not at all for younger people.

Its why we shouldn't be relaxing lockdown measures at all for over 70s, but should be relaxing them completely for the rest of the population. But we're doing the opposite of that - we're loosening restrictions, very gradually, for everyone. Which is the worst of both worlds.

ShineOn7

Voltex wrote: »

Does the average fit and healthy person actually understand the relative risks of C19?

Blut2 wrote: »

Its been pretty obvious for a month or so now from the data coming out of every country that if you're under 60, not obese, and have no underlying serious health condition (diabetes/cancer etc) then statistically C19 is no more dangerous than the 'normal' flu - ie, not dangerous at all in the grand scheme of things.

Underlying illness can be something as mild as being pre diabetic or something you need to take one tablet a day for. People need to get this

See this video for more. Channel 4 have been leading the way with proper news coverage of this since the start

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW-nmhWKd1M

I'm re-listening to it now to get the time marker when he dispells the "underlying symptoms" myth. Or rather, when he clarifies it

Mike3287

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Underlying illness can be something as mild as being pre diabetic or something you need to take one tablet a day for. People need to get this

See this video for more. Channel 4 have been leading the way with proper news coverage of this since the start

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW-nmhWKd1M

I'm re-listening to it now to get the time marker when he dispells the "underlying symptoms" myth. Or rather, when he clarifies it

Sadly always exceptions

Young healthy people die of flu's too, you can die of anything

The basket case that is sweden and most deaths per capita of Covid19 anywhere in the world, has had 60 people under 50 die

0.2% death rate, 99.8% survival rate out of 30,000 confirmed cases

In reality they probably have 150,000+ cases

0.04% death rate, 99.96% survival rate

South Korea with a population of 55 million who have tested more than anyone, has had 5 people die under 50

11,000 confirmed cases

99.96% survival rate for under 50

OP is not wrong to label it an older person disease

Lot of stuff coming out now that MMR vaccination and measles being similar to covid and it being a reason as to why over 50's being hit so badly and not young people

Hong Kong, Madagascar who had mass vaccinations have very few deaths

ShineOn7

I've found the time stamp

Listen from 14' 20"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW-nmhWKd1M

ShineOn7

Today's numbers

New cases: 92
Total cases: 24,048
New deaths: 15
Total deaths: 1,533

As of Thursday 14th

Total cases: 23,897
Hospitalised: 3,092
ICU: 389
Healthcare workers: 7,530 > Increase of 103
Clusters: 784
Cases from clusters: 8,895

normanoffside

Blut2 wrote: »

Its been pretty obvious for a month or so now from the data coming out of every country that if you're under 60, not obese, and have no underlying serious health condition (diabetes/cancer etc) then statistically C19 is no more dangerous than the 'normal' flu - ie, not dangerous at all in the grand scheme of things.

Don't get me wrong - its absolutely dangerous if you're 70+. But the statistics show its just not at all for younger people.

This is what I said here about a month ago.
It's a flu without a vaccine. Most vulnerable people and health care workers are given the flu vaccine every year which is why there are less death from flu.

I'm pretty sure if there were no flu vaccine then Covid19 and flu would ahve similar mortality rates.

Unfortunately we don't yet have a vaccine for Covid19

bb1234567

normanoffside wrote: »

This is what I said here about a month ago.
It's a flu without a vaccine. Most vulnerable people and health care workers are given the flu vaccine every year which is why there are less death from flu.

I'm pretty sure if there were no flu vaccine then Covid19 and flu would ahve similar mortality rates.

Unfortunately we don't yet have a vaccine for Covid19

Up to 20% of the European population get flu annually, and according to WHO it results in up to 72,000 deaths(though the WHO defined European Region for this figure includes many non european countries including Turkey, Kazakhstan and dozens of other Asian countries)
http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/influenza/seasonal-influenza/burden-of-influenza

Serum studies have showed levels of infection at or below 5% in Spain, France, Netherlands. In the EU alone, around 200,000 are estimated to have died including about 30-40,000 unreported deaths.

So, it is many times more dangerous than flu, vaccine or not. The estimates of 1% IFR are looking to be closest to the truth at this stage. If covid infects the same number as are infected by flu every year, we will be looking at up to 1 million deaths in Europe, herd immunity 2.5 million deaths

yosemitesam1

bb1234567 wrote: »

Up to 20% of the European population get flu annually, and according to WHO it results in up to 72,000 deaths(though the WHO defined European Region for this figure includes many non european countries including Turkey, Kazakhstan and dozens of other Asian countries)
http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/influenza/seasonal-influenza/burden-of-influenza

Serum studies have showed levels of infection at or below 5% in Spain, France, Netherlands. In the EU alone, around 200,000 are estimated to have died including about 30-40,000 unreported deaths.

So, it is many times more dangerous than flu, vaccine or not. The estimates of 1% IFR are looking to be closest to the truth at this stage. If covid infects the same number as are infected by flu every year, we will be looking at up to 1 million deaths in Europe, herd immunity 2.5 million deaths

If you tested every death for flu virus and a positive result equalled death by flu regardless of symptoms, flu deaths would be much higher.

Voltex

This study is getting * a lot* of attention. Apparently theres strong evidence to suggest prior exposure to other coronaviruses leads to cross immunity to SARS- cov-2.

It also says we develop bog standard and effective immunisation post C19 exposure, which is very good news for vaccine development. I always found it strange that after 100 years of virology study, that some folks would want to believe that we probably wouldnt have some sort of immunity after having the virus.

If true, it may explain the >50% adult asymptomatics and very mild illness in children. There could issues with the serology testing though. On the flip side...herd immunity is achieved at 20% exposure.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3