Ginger n Lemon wrote: » Yes, YES! It seems like we are getting closer together. Observing social distancing ofcourse. Anyways I am happy that we are on the same page that no vaccine will be safe, I hope you agree that rolling out vaccine thats been in development for 9 - 12 months is a no go and there should be atleast 3 - 5 years of data/research of side effects done? If you had a vaccine available end of this year, would you be happy to take it? Btw thread is totally about Sweden, I am not looking to turn it into vaccine or no vaccine, but it's quite obvious that Sweden decided to disregard vaccine, perhaps because of their previous bad experiences like you outlined :pac:
charlie14 wrote: » . They say their Ro is below 1. On those figures this supposed cure all of immunity looks a long way off.
Balf wrote: » Does "flatten the curve" assume some element of immunity? Just a thought that occurred to me while reading that. Is the flatten the curve idea that we're all going to get it, you just try to spread it out. But if there's no immunity, presumably we'd have to spread it out forever, as the population would today always be just as susceptible to it as yesterday. And, yes, I supposecIm asking that as I don't believe we can do this forever.
charlie14 wrote: » Flattening the curve is preventing the health service being over-run and thus reduce the mortality level. We know from other countries that when their health services were over-run their mortality rates rose. It is also about attempting to reduce the spread of the virus, but I expect you already knew this. What I have never been able to get my head around is with all this faith in immunity rather than a vaccine. An immunity that we don`t know if it is possible, if or how much protection it will give to subsequent waves or even how long it lasts, is how the large numbers of people vulnerable to this virus are going to achieve this immunity.
StefanFal wrote: The title of this thread is a bit misleading. We are essentially in lockdown in Sweden. The only difference is we are advised to adhere to social distancing guidelines and not forced to do so. Most of us are working from home and while pubs restaurants are still open there are very few actually going to them. Schools are still open and my kids are still attending.
charlie14 wrote: » Flattening the curve is preventing the health service being over-run and thus reduce the mortality level. We know from other countries that when their health services were over-run their mortality rates rose. It is also about attempting to reduce the spread of the virus, but I expect you already knew this..
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-options-to-end-lockdown-explained/12090270 According to University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely, ..... "What they're not saying is [that] 'flatten the curve' likely means [that] by the time this is over, 60 per cent of us will have been infected, to develop herd immunity," he said. Professor Blakely argues this type of herd immunity is the only way to ensure there is no resurgence of the virus once physical distancing and shutdown restrictions are lifted, and borders are re-opened.
sydthebeat wrote: » just as an update, and example.... 28th and 29th april gone from 34 and 26 respectively, to both at 41 today.
Balf wrote: » And they've a population of a bit more that twice ours? 10 million? And theyve a bit more than twice our Covid related deaths. You'll appreciate, the difference isn't screaming out at us. And, while I expect the next port of call to be quibbles around the count, weren't we expecting up to 85,000 deaths. So should the Swedes be on the way to 170,000? Should they be seeing tens of thousands of fatalities? Are they hiding them?
Ginger n Lemon wrote: » However, we can all appreciate German cars are very good. So going from that, we can assume their doctors are also very good,
Jaden wrote: » That might be the dumbest thing I will ever read on boards - and that is saying something. "We can all appreciate Irish Dancers are very good, so it follows that Irish 100m sprinters are very good".
wakka12 wrote: » No we werent, unless you consider 'worst case scenario possible' the same as expecting. And no, Sweden has countless measures in place to limit the spread of the virus,as demonstrated by the R0 estimate of below 1 now, so why or how would their worst case scenario possibly occur? The point is, Sweden's deaths continue to remain consistently high, while in Ireland most fully locked down countries, they are trending down steeply.
Balf wrote: » It sets the level if expectation. If you say a country that normally has 30,000 deaths as year from all causes could have up to 85,000, then you most certainly are suggesting that double, triple or quadruple the normal level of deaths are expected. So when nothing like that is experienced, it absolutely lacks credibility to say "Oh, that was just the worst case". That was the case that drove the lockdown.
wakka12 wrote: » So because a worst case was completely avoided you think it means the prediction was completely off the wall? Flawless logic. The 85,000 figure was presumably over the course of a year, we are only two months in , almost 2000 have died and it has generally so far regarded as around the best case scenario possible. If there are more waves over the next year or two until a vaccine is found, certainly not unlikely that the number of deaths in Ireland would reach 10k-20k. And thats with countless social distancing measures in place
Ginger n Lemon wrote: » You are correct, like Greek philosopher said The only thing I know, is that I know nothing. However, we can all appreciate German cars are very good. So going from that, we can assume their doctors are also very good, I dont think they would be coming out with below statements if they didnt think that immunity would last, for a good while. Its just a matter of do we trust them or not. I do. But each to their own. " Germany is carrying out Europe’s first large-scale coronavirus antibody testing to help assess infection rates and monitor the spread of the virus. One doctor involved in testing for antibodies is Ulrike Leimer-Lipke. For these antibodies test to make sense, you must have had symptoms about four weeks beforehand," she explained. "Antibodies take a relatively long time to appear. If you only had symptoms last week, you wouldn't have antibodies by now. We know that, especially in Germany, a lot of people already had it. And it is also very important for them, especially if they have a grandmother, mother or father whom they look after, to know whether they are already immune."
charlie14 wrote: » As another poster put it comparing German cars to German doctors is probably the most inane comment I`ve seen in all my time on Boards.ie. Where in that statement was their any mention of how long they believed immunity, if even possible would last or how many would possibly acquire it From what I can see of late you have been just posting random quotes and then adding your own interpretations where the quote says nothing of the kind.
Balf wrote: » Its grand, I found something that answers my question. Australians are good at getting to the point. So no immunity = no flatten the curve. Just endless lockdown.
Ginger n Lemon wrote: » Its implied in the last sentence below. They are testing the entire nation my friend, to give out bluepassports / antibodies tests results and if you are lucky enough you had covid you can roam free and deal with RE INFECTION like you deal with FLU re infection. later on friend. You dont get flu every 2 weeks do you. "We know that, especially in Germany, a lot of people already had it. And it is also very important for them, especially if they have a grandmother, mother or father whom they look after, to know whether they are already immune." I am sorry, did you really think they are testing their entire nation for covid19 antibodies just to know how many people have had it? What help is that if they fear re infections?? Does that sounds like German efficiency to you? Antibodies my friend, is the only way forward with covid. Everybody who isnt connected to WHO will tell you this.
dalyboy wrote: » If the human body can’t develop immunity / antibodies than a vaccine CANNOT scientifically be developed.
Del Griffith wrote: » Absolutely right. It's to help the health services cope, which its been successful at as they have loads of capacity. Some posters here seem to have misunderstood though and think it's some sort of solution that changes the final outcome, which it's not and was never intended to be.
charlie14 wrote: » I am well aware that. But if that is the case then isn`t Sweden`s, it is herd immunity/it`s not herd immunity strategy a complete waste of time and possibly of lives as well
Breezin wrote: » You really don't do complexity or uncertainty, do you? Not a good approach to health policy formation. Brilliant reporting just now on BBC Newsnight on the massive, social media-led oversimplification that gave the UK its kneejerk lockdown. And of course quite possibly us too.
We report a quasi-experimental study of the impact of various interventions for control of the outbreak. Data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our primary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models (GAMM). We found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay at home orders, closure of all non-businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact.
cnocbui wrote: » Looks like the Swedes may well have been right:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1
wakka12 wrote: » It seems almost impossible that mass gatherings dont increase level of infections
