Cupatae wrote: » As long as it takes, we have committed to it now.. to stop half way would be far far worse.
Breezin wrote: » So we wait for a vaccine?
Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: » There comes a point where, if a plan clearly doesn't work, you don't keep doing it.
Cupatae wrote: » No try to get the numbers down so the spread is manageable, then open the country back up in phases, adjust accordingly.
wakka12 wrote: » Sweden will very quickly outstrip our death rate. They are consistently reporting up to and over 100 deaths on week days with no peak in sight. Ireland's deaths are trending steeply downwards. Sweden will end up with far higher deaths very soon, without a doubt. But, there lies the question of whether they will simply have a higher death rate in the short term, front loading their deaths, while we may end up with the same number at the end of the pandemic after several waves. Ireland may not suffer any further waves however, they could be suppressed. And seeing as Swedish economy is not doing nay better than Europe, then it would undoubtedly turn out that their policy is the inferior one.
Ginger n Lemon wrote: » I believe we should combine phase 4 & 5 together. I believe we should open businesses based on capacity not sector. I believe we should start educating the public of an idea that we may just get coronavirus regardless what restrictions or lifting of restrictions we implement, and if they have chest pain or some other health issue they should go to GP/hospital ASAP and not be scared of covid. (this will save lives, not sitting at home) And most importantly, given that this is a new disease and that our governments experience with pandemics is zero, we should look at other countries with similar size to us and population density and follow them if what they are doing is working. Currently we just sit at home and got to wait until 20th of July to get a haircut. But at the same time Denmark has had barbers opened since 21st of April, so we have 2 weeks worth of facts and data. Has Denmark seen 10 000 + get infected over the last 2 weeks ? no. Has Denmark seen 1000 + deaths over the last 2 weeks? no. And there are 10 + countries like Denmark. This is factual data btw, not estimates or models.
Breezin wrote: » Which assumes that the virus will go away. It won't, until there's a vaccine. This is not sustainable.
Cupatae wrote: » It isnt a clear cut win, it doesnt have to go away it has to be managed till we get a vaccine, the goal is control of it right now and try maintain that till a vaccine is available .What do you suggest we do?
Breezin wrote: » I would have thought that was obvious, given the thread title. On the basis that they are doing just as well as us, with very much less cost, we look at Sweden's smart lockdown and apply it instead of our dumb, near-total lockdown.
Cupatae wrote: » Its good that you are so sure that we are so dumb for our lock down, silly us! and the rest of the world for that matter in lockdown! but outside of the obvious differences in both countries Here https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-anders-tegnell-not-convinced-right-call-2020-5?r=US&IR=T Theirs your heroes stating that they arent even sure its the right call, but its a good job you know better eh!
wakka12 wrote: » And how do you know we wouldnt turn out in a situation more like Brazil which also has no lockdown? Japan also had no lockdown, ICU are apparently becoming overrun, Russia was late to lockdown, medical services on verge of collapse, neither did Indonesia, excess mortality in the country thousands above average. THen closer to home, is it a conincidence that UK last country in Europe to lockdown now has the highest death rate on the continent? WAYY more examples of non locked which ended in disaster than how Sweden did (which also has a high death rate). Sweden is not doing that badly because it has responsible citizens who effectively implemented social distancing and hygiene practices, not because there is no total lockdown Sweden's economy is in the toilet too. Instead of paying workers of closed businesses as we are doing they have people out working in businesses which are not making any money because people are social distancing and remaining at home as much as possible.
Ginger n Lemon wrote: » Can we please stop using the words high death rate? German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than feared Quote: a representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19. The headline result is that 15% of that population was infected, which implies an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.36%. This would put him somewhat in the middle of the previous experts we have spoken to. Professor Streeck was keen to point out, however, that he still believes this is a conservative estimate, and thinks it may be closer to 0.24-0.26% and may come down further still as we know more. He published the higher number to err on the side of caution: “it is more important to have the most conservative estimate and see the virus as more dangerous than it is,” he said. Flu season in US in 2018 had 0.14% mortality. Not a single person lost their job that winter from US government directions. Something is going on.
Cupatae wrote: » But it is working, alot of the things implemented are working as intended, our healthcare hasnt been overrun thats a massive win.
charlie14 wrote: » You have a better one ?
Breezin wrote: » They go up and down. We go up and down. The statistics are hugely variable, as has been pointed out by hard lockdowners. We are more or less in the same territory, with a vastly more draconian policy.
wakka12 wrote: » Was there an antibody tests done or what?Why did'nt they release any details at all on how many were sample , who they were, what number were positive, and any of the many other important details. 'Examined in great detail' is an extradorindarily vague statement in this context
Breezin wrote: » Well, you can choose to believe such scientific studies or not. I suppose if it doesn't suit, you won't. Heaven forfend that we might find out hardline policy has been unnecessary.
wakka12 wrote: » I have no opinion on it. I am simply questioning it. Youre going to blindly accept the results of that study when absolutely no statistics accompany it? I would very much question why a 'represenatative' antibody study that proves the virus is potentiall that mild is not widely publicised news, given how widely talked about the results of the New York antibody tests were. On google the only results I can find is that website which Ginger Lemon posted, zero other hits or related content to back up or verify it
wakka12 wrote: » Was there an antibody tests done or what?Why didn't they release any details at all on how many were sampled, who they were, what number were positive, and any of the many other important details. 'Examined in great detail' is an extradorindarily vague statement in this context
biko wrote: » As long as Sweden are not the worst in Europe I have a feeling they will call their strategy a success, and not even pretend to notice that their numbers are twice as bad as their Nordic neighbours, combined.. I really hope for their old folks' sake their gamble pays off.
Ginger n Lemon wrote: » Why dont you have an opinion on it? Do you have an opinion on New York antibody tests and mortality rate published there? Can we hear that please? You cant say "Sweden (which also has a high death rate)." without quantifying what is a high death rate. Is 0.1% a high death rate? 0.3%? I will give you the German study in a very quick fashion if I know you are not looking for it to say "oh, its not entire Germany population of 83 million that has been tested, its a sample" argument. The study is solid, peer reviewed, published. None of that 65,000 Swine flu deaths in UK from Imperial college models.
PhoenixParker wrote: » Theyve had 1604 admitted to intensive care, 30-40 in the last day. Ireland has had 364 with numbers in single digits most days in the last 2 weeks. That's not tallying with Sweden's death rate or their outlook for me.
Bit cynical wrote: » This suggests to me that they are dealing with higher rates of infection in their population but keeping deaths down through the use of medical care.
Mike3287 wrote: » They can have that feeling A success is NZ or Sweden, all or nothing We left it too late to lockdown, it had been spreading too long by the time we did anything, the UK for sure shouldn't have bothered with large scaledown, it was too far gone there.
dubrov wrote: » I don't think it is as simple as that. NZ will have to open their borders at some point. If the virus is just as viable there as Italy, it will eventually get through the whole population. Looking at the numbers, there appears to be a closer correlation between deaths and climate than deaths and lockdown severity.
