plodder wrote: » But, if the current lockdown here will (or is) effectively controlling the spread, and that is without an effective testing regime, then it's reasonable to suppose that a limited removal of restrictions together with better testing will still keep it under control. So, you might be in contact with more people, but you are more likely to be able to trace those people, or put it another way, the only way a particular restriction can be lifted is if contacts are traceable (schools, many workplaces yes, pubs no, shops with present distancing measures etc). Might need some level of random testing of the population as well to catch outbreaks as early as possible.
Att vara en hest wrote: » I wonder if they will add mandatory testing for anyone who enters the country by plane or boat, all it takes is one asymptomatic person to sneeze in the queue at tesco and it will spread again. Excessive testing is not going to prevent that, unless, as someone mentioned, you test every single person every single day.
Deleted User wrote: » https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html A much better way to compare countries. The table in this article shows clearly who is being honest with their stats on COVID 19 and who isn't. Unfortunately only has a few countries.
Murple wrote: » I'd like to see this for Ireland.
IAMAMORON wrote: » Looking at the Irish data it looks like if you are under 50 years of age you are pretty safe. Only 2 % of Irish deaths have been in the under 50 age group. That is taken from Mondays figures. 88% of deaths are in the over 70's. It is also worth adding that this data is only based on those people tested. So obviously if you were not showing symptoms you weren't getting tested. This compounds the argument around survival rates in the under 50's. I wouldn't panic if you are over 50 either, if you are fit and well you have every chance of beating this phucker should you be unlucky enough to contract it.
Tenzor07 wrote: » Just because statistically being under 50 may be "Safe" I wouldn't be any less cautious: Covid-19 causes sudden strokes in young adults, doctors say
A nurse in her 40s in the Stockholm region who was infected by covid-19 has passed away.
sydthebeat wrote: » having followed sweden's numbers, today will be the last day of high numbers... Their approach seems to have worked well for them as their ICU units never really become overwhelmed. I was negative about their approach, and while im still skeptical of some of the number gathering processes, it seems their approach has worked for them.
wakka12 wrote: » But given the antibody testing in New York, it is important to note that Sweden is not doing well in that they have not achieved what they set out to do, which is achieve herd immunity. So Sweden likely only has about 250,000 people infected at some point based on the deat rate in NYC, far and away from the 7 million needed for herd immunity.
thebaz wrote: » I found it strange that the mainstream media and opposition parties did not question this lockdown strategy driven by WHO , that has impacted on most peoples basic human rights, both monetary and just staying healthy - excercise in fresh air etc - and country after country adopted this unproven lockdown strategy, and to question such you were deemed more or less a traitor or a Gemma type nut.
thebaz wrote: » I still think it is too early to say if ther approach has worked, but many have villified ther approach, and accused ther Government of murder/ genocide - I think they will avoid some of the economic disasters that is going to hit many countrys, Ireland included, and have a huge Mental health problem effect on so many, particularly the young and under 40s. I found it strange that the mainstream media and opposition parties did not question this lockdown strategy driven by WHO , that has impacted on most peoples basic human rights, both monetary and just staying healthy - excercise in fresh air etc - and country after country adopted this unproven lockdown strategy, and to question such you were deemed more or less a traitor or a Gemma type nut.
sydthebeat wrote: » having followed sweden's numbers, today will be the last day of high numbers... the total reported has partially caught up with their daily death numbers. i expect the weekends numbers to be very low which will continue through next week in the low double digits. Their last 2 days have been 26 deaths each day and looking like lower today. the only thing that could spike them again is if their nursing home deaths are covid confirmed and they are added in large groups. Their approach seems to have worked well for them as their ICU units never really become overwhelmed. I was negative about their approach, and while im still skeptical of some of the number gathering processes, it seems their approach has worked for them. it will be interesting now to see if their economy now doesn't take a similar hit to comparable countries. While its wasnt a lockdown, it wasnt exactly a free for all either and their economy will definitely have taken something of a hit.
charlie14 wrote: » There may be something I am missing here, but from the stats I am following the death for the last two days are 256 (84 and 172) and today`s new cases at 751 are their highest to date.
wakka12 wrote: » 'New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%' On worldometers This would put serious question marks over the Swedish approach , there is no chance that there is anything close to herd immunity developing within Stockholm if it is only 21% in one of the densest and most cosmopolitan cities on earth, and also the disease appears to have a higher mortality rate than Tegnell believes
Charles Babbage wrote: » Things got somewhat out of control in New York, which would have inflated the fatality rate. Other estimates suggest 0.4-0.5% population fatality and this seems not far off. That would mean 20,000 fatalities on the island of Ireland, which is a lot of people.
thebaz wrote: » and yet even in this thread ther are people quoting fatality rates of 12% , and in other threads 21% , most experts would agree that it will be well under 1% as you say.
sydthebeat wrote: » the actual numbers of deaths per day is the "avlidna / dag" figures as per the FHM records. see below for today:https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa 26 yesterday, 26 the day before, and at 3 today
sydthebeat wrote: » charlie this has been explained a few times to you already. the numbers that are posted on the front page of the covid worldometer are the "reported" numbers, which basically means they have been administered by whomever has to administer them. the actual numbers of deaths per day is the "avlidna / dag" figures as per the FHM records. see below for today:https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa 26 yesterday, 26 the day before, and at 3 today its worth noting that the worldometer actually references this page as the source for its figures, but the "reported" numbers is that which comes from the presser of the minister for health AFAIK so theres a lag between the inputting of the death into the system and the administration of that death. This explains the weekend drop off of figures and the inflated peaks mid week. the point i was making in my previous post is that the cumulative total of the "reported" deaths has practically caught up with the "inputted" day to day number... therefore we shouldnt see any noticeable very high mid week peaks anymore..
charlie14 wrote: » So when did the missing 386 deaths for the last three days occur (441 -55) and are the worldometer figure of new case for today of 751 correct ?
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