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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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DeVore

jibber5000 wrote: »

That's wrong to be fair. There are definitely not as many under 48 admitted to hospital.

48 is the median age of those WITH the Virus.

The median age of those hospitalised hasn't been released as far as I'm aware

Sorry, I am now not sure, the language is unclear. I took it to be median age of hospitalisations. It may be the median age of cases.

DeVore

DeVore wrote: »

Yes, it has. I linked it. Its right there.

Median age for hospitalisation with the virus, is 48.

Directly from that link

Hospital statistics

Total number of cases 15185
Total number hospitalised 2272
Total number admitted to ICU 306
Total number of deaths 642
Total number of healthcare workers 4009
Number clusters notified 478
Cases associated with clusters 3139
Median age 48

I took this to be median age of hospitalisations (since its in the Hospital Statistics area) but I accept there is confusion in the language.

Quantum Erasure

road_high wrote: »

Ah no. There’s a vocal cohort that clearly don’t. More specifically they don’t want others to return to their normality

JEALOUS OF OUR FREEDOMS

easypazz

DeVore wrote: »

Yes, it has. I linked it. Its right there.

Median age for hospitalisation with the virus, is 48.

But its not.

Hospitalised cases by age group
Age range Number of cases Percentage of total
<5 13 0.6
5 - 14 7 0.3
15 - 24 50 2.2
25 - 34 143 6.3
35 - 44 188 8.3
45 - 54 322 14.2
55 - 64 349 15.4
65+ 1198 52.7
Unknown 2 0.1

normanoffside

polesheep wrote: »

There is a cohort in modern society that already live their lives in a kind of lockdown. OCD is rampant among them. They welcome a general lockdown where everyone is in the same boat. It is a strange feature of the human race that we often take comfort in knowing that others are in the same boat. This cohort has ben shouting loudly and getting lots of attention for a few weeks now, but the wheel is turning and we'll soon be back to some level of normality.

Most of them seem to be still asleep.
They'll be back on his this afternoon to tell us what to do.

jmayo

Ok we keep hearing from posters, usually the young healthy ones I would bet, but sometimes the complete ar**holes who seem to consider older people's lives inconsequential to their own, is that we need to open the economy back up.

But lets look at what opening the economy back up realistically means.

There simply will not be any mass gatherings for God knows how long, so that rules out sporting events and concerts, even outdoor ones.
Social distancing will be preserved to some degree for the foreseeable future.

Pubs can open, but looking at the attitude of a fair few posters around here what kind of social distancing will be possible in pubs?
It will be like the eejits getting tanked out of their tree on holy Thursday, as if they will never see a drink again.

Restaurants, especially the more expensive ones, rely on a lot of older people with more disposable income as their customers.
What will they do?
Even if restaurants open, will they make enough money if they have to enforce social distancing and thus have a major loss of seats?

In some parts of the country restaurants rely on tourists.
A lot more jobs rely on tourists, but does anyone realistically think we will have foreign tourists entering the country?
Maybe the young ones here who don't care will go on holiday in Ireland, because they as sure as shyte are not going to be going overseas, unless they fancy a possible time in quarantine when they get there or when they come back.

There are other areas of the economy that can resume, but social distancing has to be kept in place to some degree.
Construction can open back up.
Retail can open with restrictions, but retail relies on disposable income and that is definitely down now.

Also a lot of export related activity is reliant on foreign markets all of which are heavily hit.

Schools and colleges present issues with regards social distancing as you have large numbers congregated in small spaces.
And even if the occupants of those spaces have low mortality rate if they were to get the virus they mostly live at home with older relatives.

Sports clubs, gyms and swimming pools opening provide challenges to social distancing of any kind.
Who thinks that the local soccer club or GAA club can get back to training never mind playing when it involves scores of people in close proximity ?

We have already seen that parks, beaches, and beauty spots are overrun by muppets with no real social distancing when they are open.

There has to be gradual opening, but anyone that thinks we have carte blanche opening is in cloud cuckoo land.
EDIT:
someone above mentioned returning to normality.
This is going to be part of the new normal.

c montgomery

Paddygreen wrote: »

Folks, stay indoors ( unless you are exercising within your permitted radius). Please listen to what the experts are saying. I have noticed people walking in my estate who I know for a fact live more than two kms away. I open my window and give them a piece of my mind when I see them.( I have a mask on and the road is five meters away from the window.)

Haha, id stop giving them a piece of yiur mind, sounds like your loosing enough of it.

normanoffside

DeVore wrote: »

The median age for hospitalisation is 48.

Source: Irish gov. https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/b02c86-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-monday-20-a/#hospital-statistics

"Median" means there are as many cases below that point as above it. It is NOT the "average", which is different.

There are as many under 48 year olds admitted to hospital with COVID 19 as there are over-48 year olds.

We've been through this a million times as well.

Median is an Average and it's the best average to use for counting statistics in this kind of situation

fin12

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Who are these people? You're just making these people up, like the mythical vegans who go around telling everyone they're vegan.

These people do exist. I personally know at least two people that apart from going to work , live like the way the lockdown has ordered us to for years.

Spencer Brown

jmayo wrote: »

There has to be gradual opening, but anyone that thinks we have carte blanche opening is in cloud cuckoo land.

This keeps being repeated but who is saying this in this thread?

We're all aware that it will be gradual and things like pubs, mass gatherings are well away yet, possibly even next year for stadiums being full depending on how things progress.

I think we need to be pragmatic too, if its possible to have a stadium half or even one third full by having 1-2 seats between attendees then it's better than the alternative which is nobody.

DeVore

easypazz wrote: »

But its not.

Hospitalised cases by age group
Age range Number of cases Percentage of total
<5 13 0.6
5 - 14 7 0.3
15 - 24 50 2.2
25 - 34 143 6.3
35 - 44 188 8.3
45 - 54 322 14.2
55 - 64 349 15.4
65+ 1198 52.7
Unknown 2 0.1

Sorry, my bad. As Easypazz points out, the hospitalisation by age numbers are above.

The median age looks to be just over 65 in that case.

skallywag

Spencer Brown wrote: »

I think we need to be pragmatic too, if its possible to have a stadium half or even one third full by having 1-2 seats between attendees then it's better than the alternative which is nobody.

How do you plan on keeping the players the required distance apart? Can you see the advent of a new 3 metre long hurley or something like that?

Quantum Erasure

Spencer Brown wrote: »

This keeps being repeated but who is saying this in this thread?

We're all aware that it will be gradual and things like pubs, mass gatherings are well away yet, possibly even next year for stadiums being full depending on how things progress.

I think we need to be pragmatic too, if its possible to have a stadium half or even one third full by having 1-2 seats between attendees then it's better than the alternative which is nobody.

That's never going to happen, how are you going to police crowds going in and out?

DeVore

normanoffside wrote: »

We've been through this a million times as well.

Median is an Average and it's the best average to use for counting statistics in this kind of situation

1,1,2,98,99

The Median of these numbers is 2
The Mean (often called the average by the public) is 40.
The Mode is 1.

I agree that the median is the best to use in these cases, but it is NOT the "average" in the way the general public use the term.

[edit] nhgggh... I should have written 1,1,2,97,99 to average to 40... off by one. the larger point stands[/edit]

Glenomra

all shops should be allowed to reopen immediately in my opinion. Yesterday, I was allowed to buy lots of books in Aldi but my local bookshop must remain closed. I was allowed to buy lots of plants at my Supervalu, new outside display, but my local garden shop must remain closed. government policy is enriching the large multiples to the detriment of the small business owner!

Downlinz

jmayo wrote: »

Ok we keep hearing from posters, usually the young healthy ones I would bet, but sometimes the complete ar**holes who seem to consider older people's lives inconsequential to their own, is that we need to open the economy back up.

"Open up" feels like the equivalent of "Brexit means Brexit". Empty rhetoric spouted by people who like the idea behind it but have no understanding of the practicalities involved.
Our old lives and sense of normal is gone and many are in the denial stage of grief with that.

Also, I don't think it's true that young people are the ones saying that. Young people mostly live on social media and are coping far better with this than other demographics. The mood on places like Reddit, Instagram and Twitter with a younger audience is generally far more positive and supportive of lockdown as a necessary measure, many are even enjoying the lifestyle change away from the daily grind.

It's really only on boards filled with middle aged people that I've seen so much resistance to it. I'd imagine that's because they're far less connected on social media and have far greater business interests with much less time to recoup losses.

skallywag

DeVore wrote: »

1,1,2,98,99

The Median of these numbers is 2
The Mean (often called the average by the public) is 40.
The Mode is 1.

No it's not!

Add them up again and divide by 5 ....

Downlinz

Even primary school kids learn the different types of Average - Mean, Median and Mode. Nobody is confused about the use of median or what it means.

DellyBelly

The thought of a walk on the beach on the1st week of May is keeping me sane. I think on the 5th I am going to head to a beach in Wicklow and Wexford. One of the quieter ones. It will be fantastic especially considering the lovely weather we are having.

road_high

Glenomra wrote: »

all shops should be allowed to reopen immediately in my opinion. Yesterday, I was allowed to buy lots of books in Aldi but my local bookshop must remain closed. I was allowed to buy lots of plants at my Supervalu, new outside display, but my local garden shop must remain closed. government policy is enriching the large multiples to the detriment of the small business owner!

Big time. All this lockdown has done is strengthened the stranglehold of the multiples.
Utter nonse you can queue in Dunnes with 100s of people. But can't go into a local small bookshop or DIY store. Crazy illogical rubbish.

DeVore

skallywag wrote: »

No it's not!

Add them up again and divide by 5 ....

Offs, sorry, ok off by one in my rush. 1,1,2,97,99 then

the larger point still stands.

DeVore

Downlinz wrote: »

Even primary school kids learn the different types of Average - Mean, Median and Mode. Nobody is confused about the use of median or what it means.

You'd be very surprised how much more secondary students know than adults

I've met a lot of people who dont understand the difference between Mean, Median and Mode this week....

road_high

DellyBelly wrote: »

The thought of a walk on the beach on the1st week of May is keeping me sane. I think on the 5th I am going to head to a beach in Wicklow and Wexford. One of the quieter ones. It will be fantastic especially considering the lovely weather we are having.

Careful now. You'll be giving the lockdown merchants more ammo for their fantasy of control and extended lockdown. Some of them are already dreaming of re-introductions like some place in Japan.

ixoy

Downlinz wrote: »

Our old lives and sense of normal is gone and many are in the denial stage of grief with that.

For now. Do you genuinely believe it's forever?

Also, I don't think it's true that young people are the ones saying that. Young people mostly live on social media and are coping far better with this than other demographics. The mood on places like Reddit, Instagram and Twitter with a younger audience is generally far more positive and supportive of lockdown as a necessary measure, many are even enjoying the lifestyle change away from the daily grind.

I suppose it's what age you define younger people but I've spoken to a number of people in their 20s and they completely understand the need right now but they are absolutely not enjoying it and looking very much forward to seeing it relaxing.

Thelonious Monk

road_high wrote: »

Careful now. You'll be giving the lockdown merchants more ammo for their fantasy of control and extended lockdown. Some of them are already dreaming of re-introductions like some place in Japan.

You've a good imagination, I'll give you that

Thelonious Monk

It seems anyone who is ok to adhere to the governments measures until they say otherwise, with minimum fuss, is some kind of lock-down-brigade lunatic who never wants to go outside again. Personally I've done more walking and jogging in my local area and park than I ever have.

easypazz

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

You've a good imagination, I'll give you that

They were talking of wave 8 and wave 9 last night.

Lockdown, open, lockdown, open...……….

road_high

polesheep wrote: »

For some people 'normality' hasn't changed one iota with the lockdown. Others are happy with the lockdown as it suits their warped view of how society should operate.

Once the dole is still paying paid, the supermarkets are fully stocked with junk food, the offies are open, some take aways are open then "normality" goes on.
For some others the Police state control is an added bonus. They'll miss that

Lackey

jibber5000 wrote: »

Link for that information please?

It's 60% of our deaths. 605 would be over 90%.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-77-more-people-die-in-state-in-worst-daily-toll-1.4233480%3fmode=amp

Long-term residential facilities account for 406 of the deaths that have occurred, including 77 probable or suspected death.

Nursing homes account for 337 deaths, including 61 probably or suspected deaths.

Apologies
The reporting on this is as clear as mud
Is the number of residential client deaths 406?
Or is it 329 deaths
With another 138 possible deaths?
Or is it combined 605 deaths?

skallywag

DeVore wrote: »

Offs, sorry, ok off by one in my rush. 1,1,2,97,99 then

the larger point still stands.

'Rounded Mean' is the term that would have been appropriate

Perhaps the one good thing that will come out of all of this is that most people's grasp of statistics should at least improve significantly :pac: